My Picks

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to Spring Training at 2 o'clock eastern, I thought it was appropriate to make my picks for each of baseball's six divisions.  That said, here we go:

AL East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Tornoto Blue Jays

The Yankees are better than last year and aren't under the pressure of not having won a World Series in almost a decade.  Tampa's pitching, both at the front end and in the bullpen, should be more stable this year and their lineup is very strong top to bottom.  Boston's lineup isn't as scary as it's been in the past and there are lingering health questions surrounding many of their starters.  The O's are finally headed in the right direction and after losing Burnett and Halladay in consecutive offseasons,Toronto is definitely in rebuilding mode.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

New ballpark, healthy hitters, a healthy starting rotation, and the same-ol' bullpen should land the Twins right back in the hunt this October.  Detroit's pitching is the best it's been in years but the lineup has some holes.  The White Sox are one of the toughest teams to forecast.  Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, Freddy Garcia, Alex Rois, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones...if you know what kind of years these guys are going to turn in, you're smarter than I am.  That's why I put them third.  Kansas City has some pitching and its lineup isn't as anonymous or anemic as it once was.  And Cleveland is incredibly young and its pitching is below average at best.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels

This is the toughest division to forecast because I think each team will finish near, if not above .500.  Texas can hit and for the first time in a long time, I truly believe they're going to be able to pitch, too.  That makes them the most well-rounded club.  Seattle has the best 1-2 punch in baseball on the mound.  It's just a question of if they have enough offense.  Nobody realized how good Oakland's pitching staff was a year ago.  Now all those rookies are a little better and they've added two former All-Stars to the rotation.  If Sheets and Duchscherer can make 20-25 starts apiece, this team won't finish last.  And LA?  I'm just not a believer.  The last few years, they've lost a lot more than they've gained.  Since 2007, it's been bye-bye Teixeira, K-Rod, Vlad, Lackey, Figgins, Kelvim Escobar, Orlando Cabrera, and Garret Anderson among others.  Relative to the rest of the division, this pitching staff isn't that good.  Their lineup is old and has holes in it and even though I think Mike Scioscia is an excellent manager, I don't think this team gets back to the postseason.  That could mean they finish second, third, or fourth.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
New York Mets

The Phillies are an easy pick.  This remains the most danegrous lineup in the league, and they've added Roy Halladay to the mix.  Their only potential downfall will be their closer.  Watch out for the Marlins this year.  The offense is going to be sneaky good with Han-Ram, Coghlan, Cantu and Uggla.  If Sanchez and Maybin are for real, look out and if Ricky Nolasco's demons are truly in the rearview mirror, they're going to be very strong on the mound as well.  Atlanta can pitch, but I don't see them scoring enough runs to be a 90-win team.  They should have gotten more than they did in the Vazquez trade.  Speaking of pitching, the Nats finally can!  I love the Wang signing, Jason Marquis is an innings-eater, Strasburg will be useful eventually and this year they actually have a closer.  Plus, they have a lineup that could really be a pain to face (Nyjer Morgan, Adam Kennedy, Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham).  And then there's the poor Mets.  They did nothing to bolster their pitching, Carlos Beltran is already banged up, I envision Jason Bay being a huge flop, and I'd be surprised if Jose Reyes gets 500 plate appearances.

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

By re-signing Matt Holliday, the Cards stay the team to beat especially with Wainwright and Carpenter anchoring the staff.  Milwaukee has a good mix of youth and experience, plus the best righty/lefty power bat combo since Manny and Papi.  The Cubs look like a weaker version of the team that didn't make the playoffs last year.  The Reds offense is very thin, although I think they'll be able to pitch a little bit.  Houston didn't really make any impact moves (Tejada left, Brett Myers joins the staff) but they did lose both of their closers (Valverde and Hawkins) and Pittsburgh has a lovely ballpark.  If you haven't been there, I highly recommend you check it out.

NL West
LA Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card)
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres

With Manny for a full year, and Ethier and Kemp about to enter their most productive years, this team will have a dangerous offense.  Clayton Kershaw is the key.  If he becomes a true number one this year, the Dodgers could be the best team in the NL.  If Brandon Webb is truly 100%, Arizona will have the best starting pitching in the league (including Haren and Edwin Jackson).  With Justin Upton's continued development, the addition of Adam LaRoche and the return of Conor Jackson, I see them being a playoff team.  Colorado lost Marquis but gets Jeff Francis back from injury so that's a wash, if not a slight improvement.  With all their speed at the top and contact in the middle, they should score enough to be highly competitive.  The Giants sure can pitch but offense is often a trouble spot.  The additions of Huff and DeRosa should help.  And San Diego seems a lock to finish last and a lock to trade Adrian Gonzalez before the deadline.

So to the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers, and D'Backs...you're welcome for the massive jinx.

Top 10 Of 2010

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, which means (I hope) the snow that's covering seemingly the entire nation will soon melt and the national pasttime will soon resume.  So with that in mind and with Opening Day now a mere 47 days away, here are my top 10 storylines of 2010 in no particular order.

10.  New York's Title Defense.  Last year, they won the AL East by 8 games and won the World Series in 6 and that was with A-Rod on the shelf until early May.  This year, Alex's hip (and ego) are 100%, Curtis Granderson, Javy Vazquez, and Nick Johnson are in while Johnny Damon, Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui are out.  On paper, this team appears to be head-and-shoulders above the other 29.  But rarely do they play the game on paper.  The Yankees are built to win now and baseball hasn't had a back-to-back champ in 10 years (when yes, the Yankees did it).

9.  Homerun Milestones.  Speaking of A-Rod, he is now just 17 homeruns away from 600 for his career and there's a very good shot he'll get there before his 35th birthday on July 27th.  His former teammate, Ken Griffey is 20 away from 650.  New Minnesota Twin Jim Thome needs 36 (and probably a team that will sign him to another one-year-deal in 2011) to reach 600.  If Carlos Delgado decides not to retire after all, he's 27 homeruns away from 500 and Albert Pujols, who just turned all of 30, is 34 bombs from 400.

8.  Welcome Back!  Former All-Stars Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Grady Sizemore, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Tim Hudson, Geovany Soto, and Delgado (again, if he plays) all missed significant time last season due to injury.  Now, all of them are presumably healthy and all of them are key to their team's respective success, especially Reyes and Santana.

7.  Old Faces, New Places.  Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jason Bay, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, Billy Wagner, Vazquez, and Granderson were some of the big names to change teams this offseason.  In doing so, many of them signed big, big contracts.  Which ones will prove to worth it, and which ones won't?

6.  Young Cy Young.  Tim Lincecum doesn't turn 26 until the middle of June.  Tim Lincecum hasn't thrown 600 career innings.  But Tim Lincecum already has 40 career wins, 676 strikeouts and enters 2010 gunning for his 3rd straight Cy Young award.  Only two pitchers in history have won three in a row, they're also the only two pitchers in history to win four in a row, and they're both future Hall of Famers- Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux.  "The Freak" has a chance to join awfully exclusive company at an awfully tender age but it won't be easy.  New NL'er Halladay, along with usual suspects Santana, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and maybe even Clayton Kershaw should prove to be strong competitors too.

5.  Young Guns.  This time a year ago, just about every baseball "expert" had already given the AL ROY award to either Matt Wieters or David Price with Tommy Hanson and Cameron Maybin the favorites in the NL.  How wrong they were.  Oakland's Andrew Bailey enjoyed the lowest OPS-against in all of baseball en route to winning the award in the AL, while the scrappy Chris Coghlan hit .372 after the All-Star break to take home the NL honor for the Marlins.  This time around, Atlanta's Jason Heyward is playing the role of Wieters while the Nats' Stephen Strasburg is playing the role of Price.  Will they live up to the hype or disappoint, opening the door for another dark horse or two?

4.  Outdoor Baseball In Minnesota Again.  After a 28-year run, the Twins are leaving the Metrodome and returning to their open-air roots.  Target Field seats 40-thousand and unlike their previous digs, is not designed to be "hitter friendly."  How will this impact Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau?  How many games will be snowed out?  How long will it take Francisco Liriano to get loose?

3.  The Other New York Team.  The '09 Mets were riddled with injuries, had one of the highest payrolls in baseball, lost 92 games, and saw their team leader in homeruns smack just a dozen of them.  The '10 Mets look to be without Carlos Beltran for an entended period of time out of the gate, have done next-to-nothing to bolster their pitching staff, and still have a really high payroll.  To top it all off, the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins look to be just as tough, if not tougher, than they were a season ago.  Last season was for eye-rolling.  This season, it might be heads that are rolling at Citi Field.

2.  There's Always Albert.  He's won three of the last five NL MVPs including two straight.  In 9 seasons, he's never finished with fewer than 33 doubles, 32 homeruns, 103 RBI, a .314 average, and 99 runs scored.  At 1.0547, his career OPS is best among all active players and fourth best all-time (even higher than Bonds).  And so far, he is presumed to be PED-free.  Now in his thirties, he has nothing left to prove but plenty still to achieve.  Will he win a Triple Crown?  Last year he missed it by 6 RBI and 9 hits.  As I mentioned above, he should reach 400 homeruns this year and if healthy, will get to 2,000 hits next year.  At his current pace, he would get to 500 homeruns early in 2013 and 3,000 hits in late 2016.  Aaron, Mays, and Murray and the only clean players with that on their resume.  To sum up: one of the best players ever to swing a bat is in his prime right now.  Enjoy him while you can. 

1.  Expect The Unexpected.  Some of last year's biggest surprises included A-Rod's 'roids admission, Greinke's breakout year, Buehrle's perfect game, Manny's suspension, the return of the Rockies, MVP-Mauer, Mark Reynolds' power surge, Brandon Webb's lost season, and the Yankees (and A-Rod) living up to expectations and breaking their World Series drought.  So what will come out of nowhere and dominate the headlines in 2010?  Will the Rays make it back to the playoffs?  How good are all the O's young players?  With John Lackey, Vlad, and Figgins gone, is LA's dynasty over and the AL West perennially up for grabs?  Can the Nats pitch yet?  Who gets traded mid-year?  Is Matt Kemp really one of the game's best young players?  And might this be the final season for All-Stars Griffey, Thome, Pettitte, Pedro, Smoltz or even Chipper?  We'll begin to get answers to these questions and more tomorrow afternoon!

You Know Your Favorite Team Is Doomed When...

...this happens. 

So much blame to go around it's hard to know where to start but Bergesen certainly deserves a sizeable chunk considering it's his arm and he has the right to say, "Hey guys, this isn't smart.  I'm not in throwing shape."

The O's marketing department and/or whoever hired this production company also shouldn't escape unscathed.  Are none of these people baseball fans?  Do any of them realize that pitchers (especially prized 24-year-old prospects) are given incredibly detailed restrictions for when they can and cannot throw?  Did it not occur to any of them that Brad was working up a sweat, huffing and puffing, and airing it out before Spring Training!? 

This is also a major botch for the organization as a whole.  Don't the promotional people have to talk to the baseball people when they want to use a player in a spot?  Is it possible the baseball people (manager, pitching coach, strength and conditioning staff) were left completely out of the loop here?  If that was the case and I'm Dave Trembley, I want somebody fired yesterday. 

For O's fans, let's hope this injury is as minor as the team claims it is.  And let's also hope their next team promo isn't a spot where Matt Wieters is asked to block home plate with Ray Lewis chugging full-steam towards his right knee.

The Rodney Dangerfield Of Baseball

The sub-headline on this ESPN.com article pretty much sums up the lack of respect Frank Thomas received during his career and continues to receive now that he's retired.  It reads simply, "Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?"  Not just grammatically incorrect, it's also a tremendous slight to a man who should be not just a Hall of Famer, but a slam-dunk-first-ballot Hall of Famer.

After failing to find headlines of "Tom Brady's Wife Hot?" "LeBron James Entertaining?" or "Tiger Woods Jokes...Too Soon?" anywhere else on ESPN.com, I figured I'd give my undivided attention to Thomas and his illustrious, if not unappreciated, career.

First off, his 521 career homeruns are tied for 18th all-time and considering six of the guys above him (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro, and Manny) have been linked to PEDs, among clean players he's tied for 12th with current HOFers Willie McCovey and Ted Williams.

Secondly, his career OBP is an impressive .419.  While that number is good for 21st all-time, only 9 of the players above him played after 1930 and one of them is Bonds.  Among his semi-contemporaries, only Pujols and Helton have a higher career OBP.  And while we're talking about modern day numbers, Thomas ranks 15th in career OPS (.974) and among presumed clean players, he moves up to 12th. 

Next, and perhaps even more impressive, Thomas finished with almost 300 more career walks (1,667) than strikeouts (1,397).  Of the presumed clean players who rank above him on the all-time homerun list, only Babe Ruth and Ted Williams had more "walks minus strikeouts."  That's pretty good company.

As far as hardware goes, Thomas is one of just six in AL history to win back-to-back MVP awards and he finished top-5 in the voting another four times, one of which was in 2000 when he was runner-up to admitted cheat, Jason Giambi.  He also took home four Silver Slugger awards, was a five-time All-Star, and a career .301 hitter in more than 10,000 plate appearances.

According to the Bill James developed "Hall of Fame Monitor," which measures how likely a player is to get into the Hall, Thomas receives a score of 194, higher than current HOFers Hank Greenberg, Rickey Henderson, Harmon Killebrew, Joe Morgan and Ernie Banks to name a few.  A score of 130 is considered sure fire HOF material.

And while his career loses a fraction of notoriety because 57% of his plate appearances came as a DH, it doesn't take away from the fact that he was one of the most patient power hitters the game has ever seen.  

Simply put- Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?  Yes, indeed.