My Picks

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to Spring Training at 2 o'clock eastern, I thought it was appropriate to make my picks for each of baseball's six divisions.  That said, here we go:

AL East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Tornoto Blue Jays

The Yankees are better than last year and aren't under the pressure of not having won a World Series in almost a decade.  Tampa's pitching, both at the front end and in the bullpen, should be more stable this year and their lineup is very strong top to bottom.  Boston's lineup isn't as scary as it's been in the past and there are lingering health questions surrounding many of their starters.  The O's are finally headed in the right direction and after losing Burnett and Halladay in consecutive offseasons,Toronto is definitely in rebuilding mode.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

New ballpark, healthy hitters, a healthy starting rotation, and the same-ol' bullpen should land the Twins right back in the hunt this October.  Detroit's pitching is the best it's been in years but the lineup has some holes.  The White Sox are one of the toughest teams to forecast.  Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, Freddy Garcia, Alex Rois, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones...if you know what kind of years these guys are going to turn in, you're smarter than I am.  That's why I put them third.  Kansas City has some pitching and its lineup isn't as anonymous or anemic as it once was.  And Cleveland is incredibly young and its pitching is below average at best.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels

This is the toughest division to forecast because I think each team will finish near, if not above .500.  Texas can hit and for the first time in a long time, I truly believe they're going to be able to pitch, too.  That makes them the most well-rounded club.  Seattle has the best 1-2 punch in baseball on the mound.  It's just a question of if they have enough offense.  Nobody realized how good Oakland's pitching staff was a year ago.  Now all those rookies are a little better and they've added two former All-Stars to the rotation.  If Sheets and Duchscherer can make 20-25 starts apiece, this team won't finish last.  And LA?  I'm just not a believer.  The last few years, they've lost a lot more than they've gained.  Since 2007, it's been bye-bye Teixeira, K-Rod, Vlad, Lackey, Figgins, Kelvim Escobar, Orlando Cabrera, and Garret Anderson among others.  Relative to the rest of the division, this pitching staff isn't that good.  Their lineup is old and has holes in it and even though I think Mike Scioscia is an excellent manager, I don't think this team gets back to the postseason.  That could mean they finish second, third, or fourth.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
New York Mets

The Phillies are an easy pick.  This remains the most danegrous lineup in the league, and they've added Roy Halladay to the mix.  Their only potential downfall will be their closer.  Watch out for the Marlins this year.  The offense is going to be sneaky good with Han-Ram, Coghlan, Cantu and Uggla.  If Sanchez and Maybin are for real, look out and if Ricky Nolasco's demons are truly in the rearview mirror, they're going to be very strong on the mound as well.  Atlanta can pitch, but I don't see them scoring enough runs to be a 90-win team.  They should have gotten more than they did in the Vazquez trade.  Speaking of pitching, the Nats finally can!  I love the Wang signing, Jason Marquis is an innings-eater, Strasburg will be useful eventually and this year they actually have a closer.  Plus, they have a lineup that could really be a pain to face (Nyjer Morgan, Adam Kennedy, Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham).  And then there's the poor Mets.  They did nothing to bolster their pitching, Carlos Beltran is already banged up, I envision Jason Bay being a huge flop, and I'd be surprised if Jose Reyes gets 500 plate appearances.

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

By re-signing Matt Holliday, the Cards stay the team to beat especially with Wainwright and Carpenter anchoring the staff.  Milwaukee has a good mix of youth and experience, plus the best righty/lefty power bat combo since Manny and Papi.  The Cubs look like a weaker version of the team that didn't make the playoffs last year.  The Reds offense is very thin, although I think they'll be able to pitch a little bit.  Houston didn't really make any impact moves (Tejada left, Brett Myers joins the staff) but they did lose both of their closers (Valverde and Hawkins) and Pittsburgh has a lovely ballpark.  If you haven't been there, I highly recommend you check it out.

NL West
LA Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card)
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres

With Manny for a full year, and Ethier and Kemp about to enter their most productive years, this team will have a dangerous offense.  Clayton Kershaw is the key.  If he becomes a true number one this year, the Dodgers could be the best team in the NL.  If Brandon Webb is truly 100%, Arizona will have the best starting pitching in the league (including Haren and Edwin Jackson).  With Justin Upton's continued development, the addition of Adam LaRoche and the return of Conor Jackson, I see them being a playoff team.  Colorado lost Marquis but gets Jeff Francis back from injury so that's a wash, if not a slight improvement.  With all their speed at the top and contact in the middle, they should score enough to be highly competitive.  The Giants sure can pitch but offense is often a trouble spot.  The additions of Huff and DeRosa should help.  And San Diego seems a lock to finish last and a lock to trade Adrian Gonzalez before the deadline.

So to the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers, and D'Backs...you're welcome for the massive jinx.

This Is Big

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

My World Series

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.

Oh, Sheet(s)

Fresh off last night's big win against the Cubs, Big Ben (not Roethlisberger) is going to try to take the mound for the Brewers in a game that could send Milwaukee to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Mr. Sheets' last start (ironically, also against Chicago) ended with an early exit thanks to a sore elbow. But after taking the last 9 days off, he says he's ready to go. We'll see.

The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly, who has also been named Chicago's NLDS Game 4 starter (if necessary). Last night, Chicago's NLDS Game 1 starter, Ryan Dempster, was pulled after just 5 innings and I wouldn't expect Lilly to throw for much more than 5 or 6 today. First pitch is at 3:35 this afternoon.

Sheets' comeback attempt is huge for several reasons. First, if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Wild Card race would be officially over. That's because the Mets didn't show up (again) last night and lost to the Marlins 6-1. New York has now lost 5 of its last 7, now sits 1 game back of the Wild Card and 2 back in the NL East with 2 to play (thanks to a win by the Phillies last night who are now a win, or a Mets loss away from clinching), and is on the verge of a second consecutive late-September meltdown, although this one is not nearly as cataclysmic as last year's.

The second reason a Sheets win and Mets loss would be huge for Milwaukee is that it would enable the Brew Crew to rest C.C. Sabathia until Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia. Of course if Ben gets bounced, or the Mets win, it all comes down to Sunday.

Speaking of the Mets, in their desperate playoff push, it seems they've pushed Johan Santana up a day in the rotation, which makes sense because his start Sunday wouldn't mean a thing if his team loses Saturday. And faced with the alternatives of a not-quite-healthty John Maine and rookie Jonathon Niese, I'd say they're doing the right thing. Florida counters with ace Ricky Nolasco at 1:10 this afternoon, meaning the Brewers will likely know the outcome of that game when they take the field for theirs.

In the AL, the Twins and White Sox both lost, meaning Minnesota still has a half-game lead. No matter what happens today, nobody will be able to clinch because the Sox have played one fewer game than the Twins. The only way Ozzie Guillen's team won't play Monday's make-up against Detroit is if Chicago is a game and a half up, or a game and a half down in the Central on Sunday.

Unlike in the NL, today's pitching matchups are unchanged. It's Glen Perkins for the Twins against Gil Meche of the Royals, and Javy Vazquez for the Sox against rookie Zach Jackson for the Tribe.

Stay tuned...

This Is Just Nuts!

In honor of Ryan Braun's Brandy-Chastain-like celebration last night, I was going to call this post "Crunch Time" because obviously somebody's been doing his core-strengthening exercises. But I think the headline I went with works too.

Here's the deal. There are three days left in the regular season. That's it. And yet somehow, we are still waiting to find out who will win two different divisional races and one Wild Card spot.

Last night, the Twins beat the White Sox in extra innings to complete an improbable sweep and now lead the AL Central by half a game. They're at home this weekend against the Kansas City Royals. The Sox are also home this weekend against Cleveland, and then have to host a make-up game Monday against the Detroit Tigers, although there's a chance it won't mean anything if the Twins win one more game than the Sox do this weekend.

Then in the NL, the Mets and Brewers both had walk-off wins at home, meaning the Wild Card stalemate continues. And the Phillies had an off-day, so they still lead the East by a full game.

So in short, we have 3 playoff spots open and 5 teams with very real shots at earning them.

Back to the AL, the Twins will throw Francisco Liriano (1-0, 4.56 ERA in his last two starts) against Kyle Davies (2-0, 1.20 ERA in his last two) tonight. Saturday, it's Glen Perkins for the Twins (9.42 ERA in September) against Gil Meche (10 of his last 13 appearances have been quality starts). Then Sunday, it's Minnestoa's Scott Baker (winner of his last 3 decisions) against Brandon Duckworth (who's thrown back-to-back quality starts). The Royals are not pushovers. In fact, they've won 12 times in their last 15 games, so the Twins aren't going to sweep them. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals go 2-1, meaning the Twins would finish up at 88-74.

The Sox, who've lost 7 of 10, will go with John Danks tonight (13 consecutive scoreless innings) against rookie Scott Lewis (who's won his first 3 big league starts). Saturday, it's Javy Vazquez (coming off back-to-back losses) against rookie Zach Jackson (up and down since being acquired in the Sabathia trade). And then Sunday it's a real treat with Mark Buehrle (5 straight quality starts) against Cliff Lee (who lost Tuesday for the first time since July 6). Monday's game against the Tigers is scheduled to be Gavin Floyd (5.20 September ERA) against Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season). Before dropping 3 of 4 in Boston, the Tribe had won 7 in a row and the Tigers would like nothing more than to ruin Chicago's season (it's really all they have left to play for), so a 1-3 finish for the Northsiders is not out of the realm of possibility. My guess is, they finish 87-75 and miss October by 1 game.

In the NL, the Phillies host the Nats for 3. They have Joe Blanton (3-0 in his last 3 decisions), Jamie Moyer (5-0 in his last 5 decisions), and then Cole Hamels (2.98 ERA post All-Start break) slated to throw against rookie Collin Balester (3 quality starts in 14 tries the year), John Lannan (2 earned in his last 14 IP), and Odalis Perez (fresh off back-to-back quality starts). I think the Phillies easily win the series, and could even sweep. So at 92-70 or 91-71, they'll win the East.

That leaves the Mets and Brewers to slug it out for the Wild Card. New York hosts Floirida, who finished their season last year. The Mets will go with Mike Pelfrey (7 quality starts in last 8), rookie Jonathon Niese (1 great start, 2 bad starts in his brief career) and Johan Santana (6-0, 2.38 ERA since the break) against Chris Volstad (3 earned or fewer in each of his last 5 starts), Ricky Nolasco (11 straight quality starts) and Scott Olsen (3.38 ERA in September). I think the Mets will lose Saturday and win Sunday, so it all comes down to tonight. Pelfrey v. Volstad is too close to call right now. So they'll end up either 90-72 or 89-73, pending tonight's outcome.

Finally, the Brew Crew hosts the Central-champion Cubs, who really have nothing to play for and could adopt a "don't get hurt" mentality in this series. In other words, it would appear Milwaukee has the advantage. But they will throw Jeff Suppan (10.47 ERA this month) against NLDS Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster (2.57 ERA since the break) tonight, David Bush (6 IP or fewer in his last 3 starts) against Ted Lilly (7 IP or more in his last 3 starts) Saturday, and then C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 1.78 ERA since being traded, but making his 4th start in 13 days) against Jason Marquis (who lost to the Brewers a week and a half ago) in the finale. Certainly Suppan against Dempster appears to favor the Cubs as does the Bush/Lilly matchup Saturday. Sunday is a tough call. Sabathia's been great, but he's been a bit more human this month (2.67 ERA) and you have to wonder if pitching on short rest for the 3rd turn in a row will take a toll on his stuff. Then again, will Lou Piniella play all his starters for all 9 innings? And will his pitchers be allowed to go deep into games? I know he doesn't want to get swept going into the playoffs, but a win and two losses in these unimportant games would be perfectly acceptable. My prediction is, the Cubs win tonight, lose Saturday, then lose Sunday, making Milwaukee 90-72. It sure will be fun to scoreboard-watch Sunday though as two of the best pitchers in the game try to propel their teams into October, but in my mind, the Brewers have a slight advantage over the Mets as we close out the season.

Down The Stretch They Come!

Not all teams have the luxury of being able to rest and set up their playoff starting rotations like the L.A. Angels. Others (in fact almost all the other potentially playoff-bound teams) have something to play for, even though there's only a week and a half left in the season.

In the AL East, Tampa now has a full one game lead over the Sox with yet another late-inning rally last night- the third time they've done it to them in the last 8 days! These two hook up again tonight (Wakefield vs. Garza) but don't play again in the regular season, and may not play each other again until spring training '09. Including tonight, the Sox have 11 games left, with 7 at home to close the season when the Indians and Yankees come to town. For Tampa, they host Minnesota then end on the road with 4 in Baltimore and 4 in Detroit. So by virtue of the home/away factor the rest of the way, plus the fact that the Rays have 13 games left rather than 11, I'll give the edge to the Sox here and guess they'll sneak in and win the East, with Tampa getting the Wild Card. Although if the Rays rough up Wakefield tonight, they'll be a full two up with 12 to go and that could complicate things. By the way, they're 7-1 against the Sox at home this year.

In the Central, the Sox got back to their winning ways and the Twins stuck to their losing ways, enabling Ozzie Guillen and Co. to extend their lead to 2.5 games. They have two more in New York, followed by an easy-to-look-past series in Kansas City before heading to Minnesota for what will likely be a do-or-die 3 game series for the Twins. They return home for their final 3 of '08 against Cleveland...a total of 11 games. Minnesota has a tough road ahead. Tonight, they'll try to avoid a sweep and a 4-game losing streak at Cleveland and it won't be easy because Cliff Lee is on the bump. Then, it's off to Tampa for 4 before closing out their season at home with those 3 against the Sox and then another 3 against KC. Unless they right the ship soon, their series with the Sox might be "sweep or bust," so the smart money's on Chicago to win the Central.

In the NL East last night, the Phillies, winners of 5 in a row, leap-frogged the Mets, losers of 3 in a row. And there's not much reason to think they can't continue their hot play the next 11 games. They have two more in Atlanta, then 3 in Florida, before a pair of 3-game home series with the Braves and Nationals. The road series with the Fish could be tricky, but everybody else is well below .500. The Mets have made things especially difficult on themselves because this is the so-called easy part of the remainder of their schedule. They have 2 more at Washington, then 3 at Atlanta. But those two clubs alone have taken 4 out of 5 from them since Saturday. Then for 4 games, they host the team with the NL's best record- the Cubs, before finishing up at home against the Marlins. It crazy to think it could happen again this year, but I don't see the Phillies squandering their lead, small as it is. But that doesn't mean the Mets will be golfing in October. They'll just need some help from the NL Central.

In that division, the Cubs all-but have it locked up. But the real drama surrounds the Wild Card. And what's interesting is- nobody seems to want it. The Brewers lost one of C.C. Sabathia's starts last night for just the second time since acquiring him (which is also their 5th loss in a row) and are now a half game behind New York (losers of 3 in a row) for the Wild Card. Houston (losers of 3 in a row) is now 3 back, and the Cardinals (losers of 6 in a row) and Marlins (winners of 6 in a row) are teetering on the brink of elimination as they sit 5 back. Milwaukee has 2 more at Chicago, 3 at Cincinnati, then 3 at home with Pittsburgh and 3 at home with those Cubs again. They're 9 back of the Cubs right now, so all those late-season games with the division leader are more of a punishment than an opportunity to make up ground. The 'Stros are on the road with the Fish, then close with 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 versus Cincinnati and 3 versus Atlanta. St. Louis, like the Mets, picked a bad time to hit the skids because the rest of their schedule is significantly harder than the stretch they're in right now. They have 2 more at Cincinnati, 3 at Chicago, 4 at home with Arizona (which will likely be must-wins for both teams) and finally 3 at home with the Reds. Getting swept at Pittsburgh last week killed them. As for the hot Marlins, don't count them out yet- but it's hard to imagine them continuing their "2007 Rockies" act much longer. They have 2 more with Houston (they could move into 3rd place in the Wild Card if they win both of these), then they host the Phillies, visit the Reds for one, then end up at the Reds and at the Mets. Wouldn't it be crazy if the Marlins ended the Mets season, in New York, again in 2008? This race is a bit too close to call at the moment, but with C.C. and Ben Sheets getting the ball for 5 of the Crew's last 11, I like their odds.

Out West, it's much less complicated. The Dodgers are up 4.5 games with 11 to play, and those 11 are against the Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The division is theirs to lose. Arizona's pair of extra inning losses with the Reds sting a little bit extra now, especially on the heels of being swept in L.A. And even with Webb and Haren seemingly back on track, they'll need to win just about all of their remaining 12 games to make the postseason.

Things Just Got Interesting

Wow, talk about story lines in the AL East.

The Rays snapped their 7-game road losing streak in Kansas City and now lead the Sox by a full game...the Sox got David Ortiz back after a nearly two-month absense but still got shut out by the Yankees 1-0...and during the game the Yankees pulled off a 6-player trade acquiring Xavier Nady (a much-needed righty bat) and Damaso Marte (a much-needed lefty reliever) from Pittsburgh.

Oh, by the way...the Rays, Sox, and Bombers are now separated by just 3 games. Tampa and New York each have 60 games remaining and Boston has 58.

Now the question is, which team (or teams if Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, Oakland, or Toronto get hot...they're all within 7.5 of the Wild Card) will be on the outside looking in come October? Does Tampa have enough experience and offense to finish strong? Will Boston's bullpen hold up and will its lineup wake up? And can New York recover from its litany of injuries and continue to ride Moose and Joba to a 14th straight playoff appearance?

I think most people were expecting August and September to be a dogfight in the AL East, but I don't think too many were expecting a third pooch in the ring.

Playoffs: Something Old, Something New

Based on my previous predictions for the AL East, AL Central, and AL West, the ALDS matchups would feature the Detroit Tigers (98 wins) as the number one seed against the Seattle Mariners (93 wins), and the Boston Red Sox (97 wins) against the Cleveland Indians (96 wins) in a rematch of last year's ALCS. In the NL, we would see Arizona earn the number one seed (again) and they would take on the Central champion Cubs (again) in the first round, while the other matchup would have the Mets from the NL East taking on the Wild Card winning Dodgers.

I think Detroit's high-octane offense will be too much for Seattle's relatively young and relatively playoff-inexperienced pitching staff. After all, many of Detroit's current hurlers were around when they went to the series in 2006, and newcomer Dontrelle Willis also has playoff experience from the Marlins' championship season of 2003 (albeit dubious playoff experience- an 8.53 ERA and 10 walks in 12 1/3). Simply put, Detroit averages 7 runs a game and wins round 1 in 4 games.

In the other ALDS matchup, I like the Sox to beat the Tribe for much the same reason they dispatched with them 5 months ago- starting pitching. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are two of the best active postseason hurlers. And while I don't expect C.C. Sabathia to look as bad as he did in '07, Cleveland's pitching thins out significantly after the big fella's turn in the rotation. In other words, I'm not a Fausto Carmona believer, just yet. Boston sweeps it, 3-0.

Over in the NL, I like Arizona's dynamic trio (Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson) to prove too much for the Cubs' sluggers, but it won't be easy. Chicago's superior bullpen helps them steal two games when the D-Backs' young hitters stumble in the early innings. The Snakes advance to the NLDS, 3 games to 2.

And finally, in the only upset of the first round, I like the LA Dodgers to knock off the New York Mets 3-1. Johan Santana has proven to be moderately human in October (1-3, 3.97 ERA in 5 starts), while there's no substitute for Joe Torre's calming, been-there-done-that experience in the LA dugout. Nomar Garciaparra delivers a game-winning hit off Billy Wagner in Game 2, and the Mets never recover. LA advances, 3-1.

In the ALCS, we would see, arguably, the best two teams in baseball- the Red Sox and Tigers. Both teams can hit, pitch, close, and play defense. That's why this one is going all 7 games. But in the end, there's just too much Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Fenway Park for Detroit to advance. Good news for the Tigers is, they'll be right back in the thick of it in '09.

And in the NLCS, break out the boys in blue. LA continues on its postseason tear easily dispatching with the D-Backs in 5 games. Their talented and speedy top of the order causes fits for Arizona's pitchers and the Snakes' bullpen coughs up another win in this one.

That leaves us with a Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers World Series, featuring two of baseball's oldest and most recognizable franchises, and featuring two managers who know each other all-too-well...Terry Francona and Joe Torre. And like the classic Sox/Yankees playoff matchups of recent years, this series doesn't disappoint either. It goes all 7 games, provides us with some memorable moments (20 years to the day, David Ortiz does a reverse Kirk Gibson crushing a walk-off in extra innings in LA...Nomar gets 5 hits at Fenway Park as a DH...and Jonathan Papelbon picks up a 4-inning, 8 strikeout win in relief). But I'm sorry to say Red Sox fans, you won't be popping champagne for the 3rd time in 5 seasons. LA is too balanced, too deep and too well-managed and Vin Scully's boys are champs for the first time since 1988.

How's that for a jinx?

The Boston Massacre

Wow. It's as if the Cleveland Indians forgot how to pitch, hit, and play defense all in one night. Now because of that, it all comes down to one night.

The Boston Red Sox, back of an ageless Curt Schilling and 13 hits, thumped the Tribe in Game 6, 12-2, setting up an ALCS showdown tonight at Fenway Park. It was a career night for J.D. Drew as he went 3-5 with a grand slam and 5 RBI, and it was officially an ALCS to forget for Fausto Carmona as he, once again, pitched miserably, getting ranked after just 2 innings. Heck, it was so lopsided, Terry Francona let Eric Gagne pitch the 9th!

If the Indians do, in fact go "New York Mets" and capsize just before the finish line, they'll need look no further than their two regular season aces. In this series, C.C. Sabathia and Carmona have combined to go 0-3 with a 12.67 ERA, 2.63 WHIP, 16 BB and 16 K in 16 1/3 IP. They were both 19 game winners.

And they're not the only struggling Indians. Grady Sizemore is hitting just .208. Travis Hafner, just .130. And Kenny Lofton, who seemed to come alive against the Yankees in the Divisional round, is back down to Earth, at .217.

On the flip side, as has been the case for this entire ALCS, when Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis play well, the Red Sox win. Last night, the #1 and 2 hitters combined to reach base 7 times in 10 plate appearances, 5 times with hits. They also scored 4 times.

Now, a quick note about Schilling. So much has been made (and rightly so) about Josh Beckett's postseason dominance. But if you look at them, Schilling's numbers in October are just as remarkable. In 18 starts for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Sox, he's 10-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 116 K and 23 BB in 128 IP. Compare that to 5-2, 1.78 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 73 K, and 13 BB in 65 2/3 IP (8 starts and 1 relief appearance). Sure, Beckett's numbers are a little better now, but let's see what he has left when he's 40!

Tonight however, it's a rematch of Game 3, Jake Westbrook vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka. Westbrook and the Tribe won their previous meeting 4-2 in what was easily the lowest-scoring game in the entire series. He silenced the Boston bats by getting 14 groundballs and 3 double plays over 6 2/3. He doesn't pretend to be overpowering and will need to establish his sinker early to avoid an early exit. Dice-K on the other hand has yet to complete the 5th inning in either of his postseason starts, and has now pitched 214 innings this season. If he retires at least 4 hitters tonight, it will be the most innings he's thrown in a season since 2001. No matter who wins tonight, I think most baseball fans would agree this has been one heck of an entertaining series.

And in the "your timing couldn't have been worse" category, the San Francisco Chronicle is reporting Indians' hurler Paul Byrd received shipments of HGH between August of 2002 and January of 2005. The story is written by the same two guys who wrote Game of Shadows- the book that outed Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, and Marion Jones, among others. If the Indians lose this series, this story will likely go away. But if they win, you'd better believe all eyes will be on Byrd in his next start.

Just Joshin' Ya

With the weight of his team's season on his shoulders, Boston Red Sox ace Josh Beckett delivered again Thursday night, allowing just one run over 8, striking out 11, and out-dueling C.C. Sabathia (again) to send the ALCS back to Boston.

Having watched much of the game myself, I am convinced Beckett has the most devastating combination of fastball/curveball in all of baseball. He was in the mid-to-high 90's all night and got so many swings and misses with his hammer (and a few called strikes as well) I just don't see how people make consistent, solid contact against this guy. Even when he fell behind hitters (2-0, 3-1) they still took very awkward, unsure hacks and ended up punching out or putting the ball in play weakly.

So that's the good news for Sox fans- you're headed home for games 6 and 7.

The bad news is you have Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka starting must-win games, and you have a bullpen that, let's face it, Terry Francona simply doesn't trust beyond Jonathan Papelbon. This postseason, Boston's relievers have a 4.63 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, zero saves or holds, and 14 walks in 23 1/3 IP.

Now for a real-life example of Francona's lack of trust. Last night, going into the bottom of the 8th inning, the Sox were already up 7-1 but Francona sent Beckett out to get 3 more outs. Now, I know he hadn't hit 100 pitches yet and was dominating, but if I'm a manager staring down two more elimination games Saturday and Sunday and can possibly have JB work relief in Game 7, why not yank him after 7 with a comfy lead and let your trusty pen get the last 6 outs? Ah, I know- because you don't have a trusty pen.

I also know this. After their extra innings extravaganza Saturday night (into Sunday morning) Cleveland no longer fears Fenway. And if Schilling and Dicey don't go deep into the game, the Sox could be thrown in the hamper.

With most of the focus this post about Boston's pitching, I want to make a quick note about their offense. It's remarkable how they go as Pedroia and Youkilis go. In the two games they've won, their 1-2 hitters are 7-16 with a .526 OBP, 7 runs scored, and 3 RBI. But in the 3 games they've lost, Pedroia and Youkilis are 6-23 with a .346 OBP, 2 runs scored, and 1 RBI. They're hitting in front of two of the best in the game. But if they don't get on, Manny and Papi's homeruns and solo shots, and their singles don't drive anybody in. Funny how that works.

Oh, Man(ny)

"Why should we panic? We've got a great team. It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."

I know Red Sox fans, down 3-1 in the ALCS, aren't thrilled to hear Manny Ramirez talking about what will happen if the Sox get eliminated...before it actually happens.

But you know what? He's right! This is not a New York Yankees kind of situation where, if they don't advance to the World Series, they could lose their manager, closer, best player, catcher, and a few key members of their pitching staff.

Sure Schilling's best years are behind him (even though he's still a very solid number 3), but Beckett's aren't. Plus, it stands to reason that Dice-K will improve a little bit in '08. Add Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Papelbon to the mix and their pitching staff will be fine. And as long as they have decent table-setters in front of Papi and Manny you know they'll hit.

Are the Red Sox done in 2007? No way. Their 2004 ALCS comeback has given new meaning to the phrase, "it ain't over 'til it's over." If they do lose Game 5, 6, or 7, Beantowners will be mad but there's no reason to blame Manny. All he's done this postseason is hit .429 with 4 homeruns, 11 RBI, 10 walks, and a 1.613 OPS. There's no reason to think they won't be right back in the mix 10 months from now.

Who Needs A Couple Of 19-Game Winners?

Forget C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. The Cleveland Indians have Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd! These two underwhelming righties have kept the Boston offense off-balance and have given the Tribe pitching staff the boost it so desperately needed in Games 3 and 4. Now, Cleveland is just a win away from a World Series date with the, still white-hot Colorado Rockies. More on the boys in purple in a minute.

Meantime, Beckett vs. Sabathia: Round 2 is tomorrow night in Cleveland at 8, on FOX. Let's hope Tim McCarver's mic is broken or he has whooping cough because his color commentary ruins a baseball game faster than a pug puppy ruins a white carpet. At least the little guy with a tail is cuter, and easier to forgive.

Simply put, Sabathia has looked like crud in his 2 postseason starts. He has yet to see the 6th inning and has yet to walk fewer than 5 hitters. Beckett on the other hand has given up 2 earned in 15 innings this year, running his career postseason mark to 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA, 3 CGs and 62 Ks in 57 2/3 IP. Oh, by the way, he's never lost a postseason series.

So what does this tell us?

Well, Tribe fans would say Beckett is due to get ripped and that Sabathia is too good a pitcher to have a third lousy outing. Sox fans would argue there's no way Beckett doesn't dominate with his team facing elimination, and that the Sox have Sabathia's number.

My guess is these two cancel each other out (say, 1 earned apiece over 7) and the bullpens decide this one. In other words, advantage Indians.

Whoever emerges from this series, they'll eventually have to take on the Colorado Rockies, winners of a simply unimaginable 21 of 22, including 10 in a row (7 of which are playoff games). Prior to their current 10 game winning streak, they were on an 11-game winning streak.

Here's a fun fact. The last team to have an undefeated postseason (i.e. sweep all their opponents) was the 1976 Cincinnati Reds, led by the likes of Bench, Rose, Morgan, and Foster. But in those days, there were only 2 rounds, not 3 like today, and the league championship series was a best of 5, not best of 7, so they only had to win 7 games (still an impressive feat though).

Can you imagine if the Colorado Rockies sweep the Indians or Red Sox and close out the season having won 25 of 26, including 14 in a row and all 11 of their playoff games? If they do, it will have to rank among the most improbable and unrepeatable team achievements in sports history.

This Is Just Silly

Can anybody beat the Colorado Rockies?

Seriously.

It's getting borderline absurd.

They win every game they play.

They have lost one time...one time since September 16.

Once! And it was a close game.

Jayson Stark is calling them the hottest team of all time and he's right. They are 19-1 in their last 20 games. Only top-5 college basketball teams do that. They haven't lost in the 2007 postseason, and they've played 4 of their 5 games on the road. Teams that do that come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl.

I thought a 4-day layoff between games would cool them off, and their hitters unquestionably have. Their team OPS in the NLCS is a Jason Kendall-esque .539. They have twice as many strikeouts (22) as walks (11) and ah extra base hit in 2 games (a Willy Tavares 3rd inning double off Doug Davis last night that meant absolutely nothing).

But it hasn't mattered, largely because the rest has made their pitchers unhittable. They've allowed 3 earned (and only 24 base-runners) in 20 innings, to go along with 18 strikeouts.

Now, they're headed home (they hit .298 there this year, compared to .261 on the road) where they can lose a game and still be World Series-bound without having to return to the desert.

It's just silly.

Can He Still C.C. The Strike Zone?

C.C. Sabathia walked 36 hitters unintentionally in 241 innings pitched in his 34 regular season starts this year. In other words, he recorded an average of 19.5 outs between every walk.

In his 2 playoff starts, he has walked 9 hitters unintentionally in 9 1/3 innings pitched. In other words, he is recording an average of 3.1 outs between every postseason walk.

Sabathia says he wasn't himself last night in Cleveland's 10-3 Game 1 ALCS loss. He walked 5 (1 intentionally) and gave up 8 earned in 4 1/3.

"I was shaking off pitches and not doing things and not being aggressive and not challenging guys and trying to be too much of a finesse pitcher," said the 6'7'' 290 pound lefty who throws in the high-90s.

Right now, his next chance to be aggressive will be 5 days from now, in Game 5. But if the Indians can't figure out how to retire David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez (they combined to reach base all 10 times they were up, including a double, 3 singles, 5 walks, and a hit-by-pitch in Game 1), the Tribe might not be around that long.

Round Two

Speaking with the newfound credibility of someone who correctly called 3 of the 4 LDS matchups, it's time to peer into my crystal ball uno mas ves and pick the ALCS and NLCS champs- a task I will concede at the outset is significantly harder than doing so in the first round.

American League, Boston vs. Cleveland

I don't think there's any doubt the eventual World Series winner will emerge from this series. The question is, will it be the Sawks or the Tribe?

Both teams are coming off impressive ALDS showings. Boston swept an LA team I would argue, didn't put up much of a fight, while Cleveland needed 4 games to dispatch with a Yankee team that got zippy starting pitching and left a small village on base. Advantage: Sox.

Both teams should have strong bullpens. Perez and Betancourt are what the Sox thought they would have with Okajima and Gagne. However, I'd take Papelbon over Joe Blowsaverowski any day of the week. But honestly how many playoff games this year and in years past have been decided in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings as compared to the 9th? I would almost argue the "set-up innings" are slightly more crucial than the last one this time of year. Advantage: Tribe.

Both teams have tough lineups. If Dustin Pedroia is truly Boston's lead-off hitter, (he got all 13 ABs there in the ALDS), and a healthy Kevin Youkilis is hitting in the 2-hole in front of Papi, Manny, and Lowell they could have the Kansas City Royals 6-9 hitters and still be really dangerous. Cleveland has more potential base-stealing threats (Sizemore, Cabrera, Lofton) and was absolutely unconscious when it counted (.444, 13 RBI with men in scoring position and 2 outs). But they don't have the thumpers the Sox have. Advantage: Sox.

Both teams also have strong starting pitching. The result of Beckett versus Sabathia in Game 1 won't influence the Cy Young voting because the ballots have already been cast, but it will make for interesting post-game discussion about who should get it. And obviously Beckett dominated in his lone ALDS start while Sabathia was very wild (albeit a winner) in his. Carmona/Schilling in Game 2 could go either way, although I could see the Tribe pick apart Curt, who's been forced to become somewhat of a nibbler. In the Dice-K vs. Westbrook game, it's anybody's guess, but I think Dicey is due for a Wild Thing kind of outing. And Tim Wakefield is either way on or way off, whereas Paul Byrd will probably keep the ball down, pitch fewer than 6 and give up 2-4 runs. Advantage: Tribe.

So where does that leave us? It leaves us with a series that I suspect will go all 7, and will make the World Series very anticlimactic. But I'm going to stick with the Wahoos, based on the strength of their pitching. For the record, Tim Kurkjian likes the Red Sox in 7.

National League, Arizona vs. Colorado

As I've said before, I think this lengthy layoff will hurt the Rockies. That doesn't mean they'll be pushovers, especially with thumpers like Tulowitzki, Holliday, Hawpe, and Helton. But you know what? The Cubs had some pretty good hitters too (Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, etc.) and Webb, Livan, and that bullpen made pretty short work of them.

The D-Backs' offense needs to come up big though, because unlike Colorado, they don't have that one guy who can hit a game-changing bomb at a moment's notice. No, they have guys like Steve Drew, Eric Byrnes, Mary Reynolds, and Chris Young. Guys who can hit, hit for occasional power, and run, but also wiff a lot. I'll say this right now, if the Arizona "O" doesn't show up, it will be the improbable Rockies running away with the NL pennant.

With that caveat in place, I don't think that will happen. I don't see Jeff Francis out-pitching Brandon Webb. Rookie Ubaldo Jiminez is much-heralded, but he's also a rookie. And after that, the Rockies' starters are, well, rocky. Both bullpens match-up well, but if the D-Backs hit just enough, they should be able to escape in 5 games. For the record, TK likes the D-Backs in 7.

We'll see what happens starting tomorrow night!

The Yankees' Playoff Exit...Surprisingly Not Surprising

Let's see here...Chien Ming-Wang (about whom the number one starter debate should end for good) retired 3 batters and gave up 4 runs, Mike Mussina came in for 4 2/3 innings of gutty-but-unspectacular relief, and the Yankees came up 2 runs short against the Cleveland Indians in, what was a do-or-die Game 4 of the ALDS. I know many Yankee fans will be completely shocked at this, their third straight first-round playoff exit, but when you can't pitch, you can't win, especially when you don't hit either.

Consider this. New York pitchers in this series averaged less than 3 2/3 innings pitched per start, or not even 11 batters retired per game. They also posted an 0-2 record, 9.42 ERA, and 2.30 WHIP. Their relievers were much better, but clearly overworked, as any group would be that has to work an average of 17 hitters per night. In their 22 1/3 innings pitched this series, the Yankee "bullpen" (which included Mike Mussina and Phil Hughes) went 0-1 with a blown save, 3.63 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. Had their starters been even remotely serviceable (say an average of 5 innings a start and 3 earned) this series may have gone to a deciding game.

But the Yankee offense, which was so prolific in the regular season (.290 team average, almost 6 runs a game, 1.24 homeruns per game), was also extraordinarily disappointing. They hit just .216 in the 4 games, and that includes their 13 hits in Game 4. They also left 66 men on base, or an average of 1.78 per inning. Not surprisingly, they averaged a meager 4 runs per game.

But just as the Padres' and Mets' late season collapses are also due to the fantastic play of the Rockies and Phillies respectively, you can't pin this whole thing on New York. The Indians had a hell of a series too. Their relievers gave up just 2 earned over 13 innings. Their starters, while not dominant, averaged a quality start per start (6 IP, 3 earned), and the Tribe hit .315 with a slew of 2 out RBIs. Simply put, the Yanks got outplayed.

While you can't pin this on A-Rod (.267, 1, 1, .389 OBP, 5K, 7 LOB), or Joe Torre, I wouldn't be surprised if they're both calling different cities home next year and they're sure not to be the only ones. ESPN's Howard Bryant went as far as to say the Yankee dynasty is officially over. I'm not sure if I agree 100%, but if they lose A-Rod, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera to free agency, Clemens to retirement, and are stuck with Jason Giambi and Mussina's salaries, it might not matter if Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain remain in pinstripes.

The NLCS and ALCS open up Thursday and Friday respectively and I don't think there's any question the 4 best teams are still alive.

On A Wang And A Prayer

Yes, the New York Yankees finally looked like the New York Yankees last night at home in their 8-4 win in Game 3 of the ALDS. Or I should say, they looked like the Yankees in the second half of last night's game, because going into the bottom of the 5th, they were down 3-1 and had grounded into 3 double plays. A Johnny Damon 3-run blast and 3 2/3 innings of solid relief pitching from Phil Hughes later, they had the game well in hand. But they're not out of the woods, yet.

Now Joe Torre, whose job is officially on the line, is going with Chien Ming-Wang on 3 days rest (rather than Mike Mussina) in hopes of forcing Game 5 back in Cleveland. The Tribe will counter with Paul Byrd (rather than C.C. Sabathia on 3 days rest).

Let's not forget, Wang was roughed up in Game 1, although some have speculated it was because he had "too much rest" and so his sinker wasn't sinking the was it usually does. Either way, they need him to come up big tonight because if he if unable to go at least 7 innings, New York could be in a very precarious situation.

Phil Hughes clearly won't be available. Joba Chamberlain threw 38 pitches last night over 2 innings, so he might not be available. Torre not starting Mussina sends a clear message about the team's confidence level in him, so why would you want him relieving? That really only leaves Luis Vizciano (who took the loss in Game 2), Ross Ohlendorf (who's retired 22 big league hitters in his career, and was lit up in Game 1), Jose Veras (who has less than 21 career innings under his belt) and Kyle Farnsworth (who's thrown 8 innings since August 29 and none in the ALDS). Plus, Mariano Rivera did throw an inning last night (albeit just 10 pitches), so the odds of him throwing the 7th, 8th, and 9th seem unlikely.

On a sort-of related note, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Roger Clemens throw his last big league pitch last night and I'm definitely not alone. His hamstring is clearly bothering him. Rest clearly didn't help. So starting him again makes little sense, and getting him hot quickly to relieve makes even less. With all due respect to Clemens, who is without question one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball, his 2007 signing with New York has to rank among the worst moves in pro sports history. $28 million dollars pro-rated for 18-starts, a 6-6 record, 4.18 ERA, and 99 IP in the regular season, plus 7 hitters retired in the postseason is not much of a return on the Boss' investment.

So at 7:37 tonight, we'll see what Wang is made of in Game 4. If the answer is "not much" there probably won't be a Game 5.

Does The Rockies' Run End Now?

The Rockies and D-Backs both swept their respective first round opponents yesterday, and the Red Sox and Indians could follow suit this afternoon. But because the AL matchups could also last a few more days, the NLCS won't start until Thursday in Arizona. And Rockies' fans shouldn't be too happy about that.

This team has played 27 games in the last 30 days. Of those 27 games, they've won 21 times, including 17 of the last 18. In my mind, the last thing I would want right now if I'm on the Rockies is 4 days off in-between games. Sure it'll give Matt Holliday's chin some time to heal but it will also give this team some time to cool off, and get out of its groove.

The Padres and Phillies weren't able to stop the Rockies' run. But in my opinion, the Scheduling Gods will.

Backs Against The Wall

Right now there are 4 teams (Boston, Cleveland, Arizona, Colorado) with 2-0 advantages in their best-of-5 Divisional Championship Series matchups while the other 4 teams (LA, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia) are one loss away from elimination.

This is the 13th season Major League Baseball has used the Wild Card format. The LDS round has never had 3 teams swept in the same year, let alone all 4, so we could see some history before it's all over. Interestingly, the Rockies are the only team of the 4 that are up 2-0 that haven't played a home game yet.

Today, the Cubs and Rich Hill will try to stay alive against Livan Hernandez and the Diamondbacks, while the Phillies and Jamie Moyer will hope to make it to game 4 against Ubaldo Jiminez and the Rockies. Then tomorrow, Curt Schilling and the Sox will try to spoil Jered Weaver's homecoming in LA, and Jake Westbrook and the Indians will aim to end the Yankees season and possibly Roger Clemens' career.

Of by the way, if the Yankees lose one more ALDS game, they'll be bounced in the first round for the third straight time. I bet George is getting frustrated.

That's Just Manny Being "A Bad Man"

Don't let his .296, 20, 88 season (his worst full year in the bigs) fool you. Manny Ramirez is still pretty good. Just as him.

"I am one of the best players in the game," he said after cranking a 3-run walk-off in Game 2 against LA. "I have confidence in myself, and I know my train doesn't stop here."

He went on to say about LA closer, and gopher-ball server-upper Francisco Rodriguez, "He's one of the greatest closers in the game and I'm one of the best hitters in the game."

Manny also went on to explain his career low numbers.

"I haven't been right all year. When you don't feel good and you still get hits, that's how you know you're a bad man."

Can you imagine if he gave more than one interview a year?