Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.
His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.
I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.
Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.
Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.
Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.
My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.
He rarely walks, but he's still probably the best lead-off hitter in the game. He plays a wicked right field. And at the end of the season, he's a free agent. Ichiro doesn't want to talk about it, so I will. Where should he end up, and where will he end up?
Option 1 - He stays in Seattle.
In this scenario, he'd remain as close, geographically, to his native Japan as possible. But he sure wouldn't be any closer to winning a championship. The M's are one of 8 teams in the league with exactly zero World Series titles (the Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Devil Rays, Rangers and Expos/Nationals are the other 7), and one of only 5 to never even make it to the Fall Classic. Ichiro turns 34 at the end of the season. He was an MVP and batting champ overseas. He's an MVP and batting champ in the US. My guess is, he wants to win. And I'm not sure if Seattle will help him achieve that any time soon.
Option 2 - He joins the Yankees.
The Yanks apparently have an option on Bobby Abreu in 2008. They could pick it up and have an Abreu-Damon-Ichiro outfield (you could put any of them anywhere, except for Damon in right), or they could decline the option and then #51 replaces #53 in right. Ichiro does have a hose for an arm, but he's still not a starting pitcher (something the Yanks will likely need much more of this coming off-season, as compared to another bat). So I'm not convinced he'll be teammates with Hideki Matsui any time soon.
Option 3 - He joins the Red Sox.
J.D. Drew's not hurt yet, but c'mon. Right field in Boston is about as readily open as Britney Spears' room at the rehab clinic. And Coco Crisp hasn't really gotten the chance to prove himself. But in the meantime, is Kevin Youkilis really the answer at lead-off? And is this the off-season where the Sox finally do trade Manny Ramirez? Hard to say. But then again, Terry Francona's not exactly Whitey Herzog when it comes to stolen bases. The Sox swiped just 51 bags last year and 45 the year before. So it doesn't seem like Ichiro's slap-and-dash style would be used to its fullest capabilities in Beantown.
Option 4 - He joins the Cubs.
Hmmm. They keep saying the have tons of cash to spend. And right fielder Jacque Jones is one of just a few non-All Stars in their starting lineup. But like the Yanks, I think the Cubs will be in the market for pitching more than offense, come October. Still, can you think of a better way to start a lineup than Ichiro, Soriano, Lee, and Aramis Ramirez? Mark Prior could pitch with his left arm and still win.
Option 5 - He joins the Indians.
Double hmmm. He would be the veteran presence on a mostly up-and-coming young team. The Indians only have Casey Blake holding down the fort in right. And they like to run. They're not necessarily a big market team that's always in the running for the top free agent prize. Still, seems like a decent, "sleeper fit."
Option 6 - He joins the other New York team.
Sean Green's career is headed into its twilight years, but the Mets already have a pretty good lead-off hitter in Jose Reyes. Plus, like the Cubs and Yankees, the Mets need starting pitching, arguably the most out of all of them. So if they break the bank on anyone, it will most likely be on a replacement for Pedro or Tom Glavine, not Ichiro.
Option 7 - He joins the Phillies.
Not that I don't like Shane Victorino, but Ichiro would be an absolutely perfect fit in Philly. He and Jimmy Rollins would be fantastic table-setters for Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Remember that first-four-hitters-for-the-Cubs scenario? The Phils' first four with Mr. Suzuki would be even better. Plus, they already have decent starting pitching, so he would make them an instant favorite in the NL East (depending, of course, on what the Mets do). He would also give Philly one of the best defensive outfields in the game. He and Burrell get tons of assists, and Aaron Rowand is a regular on Web Gems.
Option 8 - He joins any other team.
I think you can instantly eliminate teams about 18 of the remaining 23 clubs because either (a) his presence alone won't make them an instant contender (Colorado, Texas, Washington to name a few), (b) they simply don't need a right-fielder (Atlanta, LA Angels, White Sox, teams like that), or (c) they don't stand a chance at out-bidding bigger market teams (Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay, this list is long).
That really only leaves teams like Houston, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, or maybe Toronto. Maybe he's the missing piece for one of these organizations. Houston is interesting, although for some reason, I just can't see him in an Astros uniform, although they did just trade their only real stolen base threat to the Rockies. St. Louis isn't getting any younger, and the Cards starting pitching took a huge hit this off-season. Ichiro would be a great table setter for the Giants, but there's nobody behind him to sit down and eat. And I think he'd stay in Seattle before he played in Canada.
If he is going to leave, I think he'd work out best in Philadelphia. But a lot can change between now and the World Series. Judging by what he said today, we'll probably have to wait at least 8 months to get any kind of idea what he's thinking and where, if anywhere, he's going.
Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.
Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston. 
