Who's Havin' Glavine?

Agent Gregg Clifton says Tom Glavine is likely going to decline his 2008 option with the New York Mets and explore his options. If I'm the New York Mets, I'm pretty excited I won't have to pay him between $9 and $13 million dollars next year, especially given his one-out, 7-run performance the final game of the season against the Florida Marlins; an exclamation point at the end of a down season that included his 300th win, and little else.

The Mets should have Pedro, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey among others in their rotation next year, so they'll be fine.

The question is, will Glavine retire knowing his last career start helped seal the worst regular-season collapse in baseball history, or will he try to catch on with another team? And if so, who's going to want a 41-year-old lefty coming off one of the worst seasons of his career?

Excuse me, Mr. Angelos, there's a Mr. Clifton on line one.

300

It's the hottest DVD in America right now, and it's how many career victories Tom Glavine has, thanks to tonight's 8-3 win, in Chicago, against the Cubs.

Glavine was vintage Glavine. He got ahead of hitters, got a few generous strike calls from the home plate umpire (earned by being in the zone all night), and changed location and speed with the veteran savvy of a savvy veteran.

Glavine is the guy every father should make his son watch the first time Sonny Boy asks how hard he was throwing on the radar gun in his high school game. He should sit him down, pop in tonight's game, or just about any of Glavine's other 299 wins, and show Junior that you can throw 85 and still make good big league hitters look bad. If that speed works against Alfonso Soriano and Derek Lee, 70 will work just fine against the J-V team.

In this generation, Glavine will probably be thought of after guys like Clemens, Maddux, and Randy Johnson (rightly so). But he ranks well above pitchers like Schilling, Pedro, Pettitte, Smoltz, and Mussina for, if nothing else, his consistency.

Glavine is now the 23rd member of the 300 club (Gerard Butler is not one of the other 22), and the big question is, will he be the last? As I've said before, there aren't too many pitchers right now with a decent crack at 300. Since my post a few weeks ago, Johnson's season has come to an end, without another win. So he'll need 16 next year, after major back surgery, and at age 44. It's possible, but it'll be tough. And I don't see Johnson pitching for anybody in 2009.

Mussina's 2006 made it look like he had a lot more career left than he appears to have left in 2007. He's 55 wins away and has never had 20 in a season, meaning he's going to need to pitch for at least 4 more seasons. Again, not impossible, but not likely.

Realistically, after Moose, it's Pedro who needs 94 more at age 35, and Pettitte who's the same age and 109 away. Personally, I don't think it's going to happen for any of those guys, meaning it may be Roy Oswalt, C.C. Sabathia, or Johan Santana who ends up getting close.

Or who knows? Maybe it's the 13-year-old who just finished up watching Glavine's 300th and now has a newfound appreciation for pitching rather than just lighting up the gun, who's going to be the next to join the list, some 30 years from now. That, friends, is what makes this game so great.

Super Tuesday

After a largely snoozer of a Monday slate, Tuesday is sure not to disappoint baseball fans.

Barry Bonds (who just turned 43 a week ago) is going for career homeruns 755 (and maybe even 756) in Los Angeles, against Cy Young front runner Brad Penny.

Alex Rodriguez, (who just turned 32 on Friday) is going for career homerun 500, at home against Jose Contreras and the White Sox.

And Tom Glavine (who just turned 41 back on March 25) is going for career win 300, in Milwaukee, against Jeff Suppan.

There's also that pesky trade deadline thing at 4 o'clock this afternoon, but I can't imagine we'll see any deals bigger than Mark Teixeira to the Braves

My prediction: none of the above three things happen, and despite a few relievers switching teams, the trade deadline comes and goes quietly. Stay tuned.

The Forty Club

Lots of news from some of baseball's graybeards today. First, Barry Bonds celebrated his 43rd birthday, homerlessly, last night against the Atlanta Braves. He's now 2-14 since last week's two-homer-game against the Cubs (remember he was 0-21 before connecting on numbers 752 and 753, July 19). Also, commissioner Bud Selig, who's just happy not to have his highest-paid player indicted on federal dogfighting charges or have one of his umpires charged with gambling on games, now says he will try to be in attendance when Bonds passes Hank Aaron on the all-time-homerun list. Thanks Bud, what the hell took you so long? And The New York Times is reporting the BALCO chemist who essentially manufactured the undetectable steroid known as "the clear," claims both Bonds and Gary Sheffield used his illegal performance-enhancing drugs. According to the now infamous leaked grand jury testimony, both players have denied knowingly taking anything. This is all from a "Costas Now" interview on HBO Sports, which aired last night, and I imagine will air again soon.

Next, 41-year-old Craig Biggio is calling it a career at the end of 2007. The 7-time All-Star and 4-time Gold Glove winner joined the 3,000 hit club late last month. He's also one of just 7 players in big league history with 3,000 hits and 400 stolen bases. Oh, by the way, he did it all with one team. Biggio said he wants to leave on his own accord, and thinks he accomplished just about all he could during his 20 seasons. He's right, and he'll have a spot in Cooperstown in 5 years. Just for good measure, his 6th inning grand slam last night helped lift the 'Stros over the Dodgers, 7-4.

While Biggio is definitely hanging them up, 43-year-old Randy Johnson is hinting he might do the same thing. He threw to batters for the first time in almost a month yesterday after being diagnosed with a herniated disc in his back. Instead of surgery, he opted for rehab, which is working so well for Lindsay Lohan. Johnson and Manager Bob Melvin said he threw well, but it's this quote from the Big Unit that has people curious. "I think everybody in this clubhouse, maybe not the players but the coaching staff and front office, would like to know, and I would like to know, whether I'm going to be able to pitch and help this organization," he said. "If not, I think that I need to take care of things and they would need to take care of things." Hmmm. We could know more later today or tomorrow based on how stiff and sore he says he feels. Remember, Johnson is 16 wins shy of 300 for his career and may be the best shot out of any active pitcher (young and healthy, or old and on his last legs) to reach the milestone after...

...41-year-old Tom Glavine, who takes his second crack at number 299 tonight, at home, against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are bad (41-57) and their lineup is weak (second to last in baseball in runs, 28th in OPS, 25th in average) but Tommy Gun's opponent is no joke. Tom Gorzelanny is 9-3 with a 3.20 and is fresh off a hard-luck loss against the Astros. Meantime, Glavine is coming off his shortest outing of the season (2 innings) and is trying to keep his already poor season from going further down the tubes. His monthly ERA totals have gotten progressively worse since the season started (2.80 in April, 4.03 in May, 5.83 in June, 6.26 in July) and by my estimates, he has 12 starts left after tonight to get to 300. He'll get there eventually, but it might not be pretty.

Milemarkers And Speed Bumps

Yesterday, Barry Bonds took two pretty big steps forward in his quest to break Hank Aaron's all-time homerun record, snapping an 0-21 drought with career bombs 752 and 753 in Chicago. Two more jacks- he's tied. And with three more- the record, clouded by suspicion though it will be, is his.

On the other side of the milestone spectrum, the New York Mets spotted Tom Glavine a 6-spot in the top of the first, and gave him 3 more in the top of the third in LA, but he was pulled after just 2 innings, 68 pitches, 10 hits, and 4 earned, thus disqualifying him for his 299th carer win. The Mets ended up winning a barnburner, 13-9.

Both of these future Hall of Famers face difficult roads ahead in their quests for their respective statistical achievements. Bonds openly admits when he sees the umpire give the pitcher the new, special "Barry Bonds homerun baseball" it gets in his head (and in his defense, how would it not get in your head?). And Glavine, sad as it is to say, is seemingly at the end of the road, stuff-wise. He will almost certainly finish with a 4.00+ ERA this season for just the 5th time in 20 full seasons. And he's flirting with a career-worst in ERA, set back in 1988 with the Braves when he posted a 4.56 mark (ignoring the 50 innings he threw in his rookie season). I submit as further proof his increasing walk totals and his decreasing strikeout totals.

There's enough season left that barring injury, both of these 40-plus-ers should be able to reach their marks this year. But the question now is, who's going to have a tougher time, Bonds or Glavine?

Conventional wisdom would say it's a whole lot easier for a slugger to hit 3 homeruns than it is for a good pitcher to win 2 games. An everyday player, and Bonds is almost one these days, has an opportunity to hit a homerun with every plate appearance, whereas a starting pitcher like Glavine only has a chance to pick up a win every fifth team game. Plus, hitting a homerun requires the batter to have one good swing, one time, whereas to get a win, a pitcher needs to work at least 5 innings, have his team score more runs than he's allowed, and the bullpen can't squander the lead. In other words, Barry Bonds doesn't need to rely on his teammates at all to hit a homerun, whereas Tom Glavine very much needs to rely on his teammates to get a win.

But we're not talking about any 3 homeruns, or any 2 wins. We're talking about 756 and 300. And that, to me, is where this argument gets interesting. With each homerun Bonds hits, the pressure, attention, and scrutiny will intensify exponentially. That simply won't happen for Glavine. Sure it will be the story when he gets to 299, and each subsequent time he goes for 300, but it won't even be a story on the 4 other days he doesn't pitch. He can rest mentally those days and focus on baseball only. But Bonds will get no reprieve. If he plays tonight and hits one, everybody will start to ask him about 755. If he plays and doesn't hit one, everybody will ask him about 754. And if he doesn't play, everybody will ask him when he will play again, so he can hit 754. The reason for all this is because nobody's been where Barry is trying to go, whereas 22 pitchers have been where Glavine is trying to go. It won't be long before ESPN starts breaking into its regular programming to bring the world Barry Bonds' latest at-bat live, as he goes for history. This will happen for every single one of his at-bats, until he gets to 756. You can bet the same will not happen for Glavine.

So while I think Bonds will hit his 3 before Glavine wins his 2, I think Bonds will have a much tougher time getting there. And with each homerless at-bat, it will only get more difficult. What's interesting about these two statistical quests though is the fact that it's no sure bet we'll ever see 756 or 300 again.

Among hitters, Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey Jr. are the two closest, but I don't think either of these guys has another 150 jacks in them, given their proximity to 40. And at age 39, Frank Thomas most certainly does not have another 250 in him. A still-31-year-old Alex Rodriguez is the best bet, but like "The Big Hurt," he's only about two-thirds of the way to Bonds, and Bonds is still playing. Jim Thome (36, 487), Manny Ramirez (35, 484), Gary Sheffield (38, 477), and Carlos Delgado (35, 423) all seem like locks for 500, but not necessarily 600. Realistically, that leaves Andruw Jones (30, 361) and Vladimir Guerrero (32, 352) both of whom aren't even halfway there yet.

The prospects are even more bleak among pitchers. Does 43-year-old Randy Johnson have 16 more wins in him? Personally, I don't think he does. If you look at his struggles to stay healthy this season, there's no sure bet he'll pick up 4 or 5 more wins in 2007, meaning he would have to win more than 10 if he returns in 2008. It won't matter because he's a Hall of Famer even without 300 on his resume. But if Johnson doesn't get to 300, it could be a long time before anyone else does. Mike Mussina (38) needs 57 more wins. That won't happen. David Wells (44) needs 65...zippy chance. Same story for Jamie Moyer (44, 223), Curt Schilling (40, 213), Kenny Rogers (42, 210), and John Smoltz (40, 202). If 35-year-old Pedro Martinez didn't have a 50-year-old right arm and body, his 206 wins would be a good bet to turn into 300, but now it doesn't look so good. And after Andy Pettitte (35, 191), and Bartolo Colon (34, 146), the only four pitchers under 35 with at least 120 wins are Tim Hudson (31, 129), Kevin Milwood (32, 129), Livan Hernandez (32, 128), and Jason Schmidt (34, 128). Then you get into mega-projection territory with guys like Roy Oswalt (29, 106), Roy Halladay (30, 105), Mark Buehrle (28, 104), CC Sabathia (26, 94), and Johan Santana (28, 89).

So whether you like them or hate them, cheer on Bonds and Glavine as they go for the record books. It could be the last time we see something like this ever again.