Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

Teixeira?  Jeter?  A-Rod?  Sabathia?  Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez.  Once he returned to action, they went 90-44.  So was he the engine that powered their lineup?  Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage).  At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats.  True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415.  During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs.  And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either.  Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break.  But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby.  They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away.  So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month.  But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex.  Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914.  Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up.  They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining.  A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too.  My vote goes to Teixeira.

Hello Joe: Part II, And More

Joe Torre will manage the LA Dodgers this coming season, setting up the all-important question: does this mean Alex Rodriguez will follow? It sure would make sense because he would give LA a big bat in a lineup that desperately needed one last year. After all, the Dodgers' leading homerun hitter (Jeff Kent) had 20 and their leading RBI man (Russ Martin) had 87. If they did get A-Rod, the new LA lineup look something like this...

CF Juan Pierre
SS Rafael Furcal
C Russ Martin
3B Alex Rodriguez
1b James Loney
2b Jeff Kent
RF Andre Ethier
LF Matt Kemp
P Derek Lowe

Funny how adding one of the best players in baseball history makes a team look pretty damn good.

It's hard to say how LA will do before we know where A-Rod will land. But there's no question Torre is an improvement over Grady Little. I would imagine the Dodgers' win total should follow suit.

One Busy Day

For the first day of the offseason, there sure is a whole heck of a lot going on. We'll start with the Red Sox, who are scheduled to have their victory parade today and it's certainly well-deserved. Their 29-10 margin of victory in the World Series was the biggest ever for the fall classic.

Next, it seems (and rightly so) that Major League Baseball is not particularly thrilled with Alex Rodriguez or his agent, Scott Boras, for upstaging the Sox Sunday night with his "opt out" announcement. And yet he wonders why some people don't like him (this could apply to A-Rod or Boras, frankly).

A-Rod's former team, the New York Yankees, are said to be close to signing Joe Girardi to be his manager after making him an offer yesterday (and in doing so, losing bench coach Don Mattingly, who also interviewed for the job). It's so premature to speculate about whether Girardi will get the Yanks in the playoffs next year, it's silly. We don't know who is going to end up on this team, come opening day.

The man how used to manage the Yankees, Joe Torre, could be in line to succeed Grady Little as manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. As if Game 7 of the '03 ALCS wasn't punishment enough for Little, now the man who clearly outmanaged him from the opposing dugout could be taking his job. Repeat after me..."WHO'S YOUR DADDY?!?! clap, clap, clap-clap-clap."

And oh, by the way, Torii Hunter and Barry Bonds are officially free agents, along with A-Rod. And the Braves dealt Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for a couple of minor league prospects.

All this, and the winter meetings are still weeks away!

One Bad Night For The Yankees

I hereby proclaim Monday, October 29th, 2007 "Hug a Yankee Fan" Day.

Let's face it, it's the right thing to do.

Not only did the Bronx bombers and their faithful have to watch their arch rivals sweep the Colorado Rockies in the World Series, but then they learned their best player, Alex Rodriguez (in the minds of some, another arch-rival) is leaving.

I think most people saw these things coming, but c'mon- both on the same night?! That's just mean!

First, to the Red Sox. Back of another strong showing by rookies Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, they held off the Rockies last night, 4-3. Mike Lowell was named World Series MVP after hitting .400 with a homerun (in the 7th inning of Game 4, no less), and 6 runs scored. Personally, I think Jonathan Papelbon should have earned the honor for his 3 saves, 0.00 ERA over 4 1/3 critical innings pitched, 3 K's and just 2 baserunners allowed. If it had gone to a 5th game and Josh Beckett dominated again, it would have been his honor. Either way, the Sox played some of their best baseball this October and look locked and loaded for 2008. For the record, Colorado hit just .218 in the World Series as a team, and scored a meager 10 runs in the 4 games.

Now to the whole Alex Rodriguez thing. Much to the delight of the Texas Rangers who no longer have to pay him, agent Scott Boras says A-Rod is going "A-Way Rod" (clever nickname copyright 2007, Baseblogger) because he's not sure how good the Yankees are going to be next year. We already know Joe Torre's not coming back. Now, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada may leave as well. It's funny to think A-Rod's leaving because of them, and now they may leave because of him.

I'm proud to say I saw this coming back in February, and I'm still inclined to think the Chicago Cubs are the front-runners to sign him. A-Rod would be the man, the Cubs offense would be the best in the league, and he and Lou Piniella are boys. I don't see how he'd fit in as a New York Met because they already have David Wright and Jose Reyes on the left side of the infield. The LA Angels would be interesting though- they could certainly use the offensive help and protection for Vlad. And what about A-Rod to the Red Sox?

Theo Epstein: "Thanks for winning the World Series MVP, Mike Lowell, but we're going to go in another direction at third next year."

Mike Lowell: "Isn't A-Rod hitless in his last 18 October at-bats with men on base?"

Theo: "..........."

Mike: "Theo, you there? Theo?"

I suppose they could flip him back to shortstop and part with Julio Lugo's .295 on base percentage, but I just don't see Red Sox nation welcoming this guy with open arms- something A-Rod clearly wants and needs.

The worst news of all for Yankee fans is, most bad things happen in threes, meaning (a) A-Rod is going to sign with Boston (b) Derek Jeter is about to be indicted on federal catfighting charges, or (c) New York is set to introduce John Rocker as their new manager.

So if you see a Yankee fan, give them a hug or a heartfelt clap on the shoulder because it's shaping up to be a long winter.

It's Hardware Time, Part 1: MVP

While the regular season was still going on, I gave my picks for baseball's biggest awards at the end of each month (except for July, when I did it at the end of the first half). But now that the season is over and because a few races are, in my opinion, incredibly tight, I am going to devote a little more time and a few more words to each, by splitting them up into individual posts.

With that said, let's start with MVP.

American League
This is really a two-man race, although Yankee fans would disagree. But the reality is, Magglio Ordonez's season was simply too good to dismiss. First, let's look at their basic numbers. Maggs led the majors with a .363 batting average and 54 doubles. On top of that, he drove in 139 (2nd in the AL) and enjoyed a .439 OBP (also 2nd in the AL). You can add to that 117 runs, 28 homeruns, and three more strikeouts (79) than walks (76). Alex Rodriguez on the other hand led the majors in homeruns (54), RBI (156), runs (143), slugging (.645) and OPS (1.067), while swiping 24 bases and hitting .314.

Deeper digging reveals Ordonez hit .423 with 105 RBI in 189 AB's with runners in scoring position, but when the pressure increased, his numbers returned to Earth. With men on and 2 out his average dipped to .309, and with 2 out and men in scoring position it was just .299. Even less impressive- his .247 average and .333 OBP late and close.

A-Rod's key splits are much more consistent. With men in scoring position he hit .330 with 97 RBI in 176 AB's. With men on and two outs he hit .326 with an astonishing 21 homeruns in just 141 AB's. And late and close he hit .357 with a .439 OBP. Interestingly, only 18 of his 54 homeruns were solo. Basically he was always clutch.

That's why A-Rod is my choice and should be everyone else's. On the surface, his overall numbers are astounding, posting the first-ever 50-150-20 season in baseball history. But unlike in years past when people accused him of hitting his homeruns when it was already 8-0 Yankees, this year, he's come up huge when it mattered most. For good measure, here's my top 5.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Magglio Ordonez
3. David Ortiz (led majors in walks, led AL in XBH, hit .332 with 35 homeruns)
4. Carlos Pena (46 HR, 121 RBI, 3rd in AL in OPS, who cares if he's on Tampa?)
5. Vladimir Guerrero (3rd in AL in RBI, hit .324, more walks than strikeouts)

National League
A significantly tougher choice to say the least, as there remain at least 5 deserving players for this award. All things being equal, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright could each stake legitimate claim to this award.

Fielder led the NL in homeruns (50), finished 2nd in OPS (1.013), and third in XBH (87) and RBI (119). Holliday won the batting title (.340), led the majors in XBH (91), finished 2nd in RBI (135), tied for 3rd in runs (119), and in OPS (1.011). Howard led the NL in RBI (136), finished 2nd in homeruns (47), and 4th in walks (107). Rollins led the league in runs (139), finished 2nd in XBH (88), 5th in steals (41) and hit 30 homeruns. And Wright finished 4th in hits (196) and OBP (.416), 5th in runs (113), 7th in average (.325), and like Rollins, went 30-30 (30-34 to be exact).

Before I proceed, I want to make a brief point. Unlike some voters, I personally don't think missing the playoffs should automatically disqualify someone from winning the NL MVP this year. Obviously some of the players on this list will be playing in October (Holliday perhaps, Howard, Rollins) while some will have come up just short (Fielder, Holliday perhaps, Wright). Clearly the guys who did help their teams get in have helped their MVP causes significantly, but just because Fielder and Wright's teams didn't make it, doesn't mean they didn't help their teams get as close as they did. That said, let's look a little deeper.

Fielder had a great September (.333, 11, 22), thrived close and late (.321, 6 HR), but didn't always deliver with men on (.270 with men in scoring position, .220 with 2 out and men in scoring position). Still his power numbers speak for themselves. Ironically, "Fielder" is not a good one. He led all big league first basemen in errors with 14.

Holliday also had a terrific September (.368, 12, 30), an even better final week of the season (.444, .545 OBP, 5 runs, 4 RBI), was good but not great close and late (.287, 7, 18), hit .330 with men in scoring position and .329 with the same situation but two outs.

Howard's September batting average wasn't spectacular (.260), but his other numbers were (11, 26, 25 walks, .413 OBP). And few hitters had a better final week of the season (.381, 5, 11, 1.575 OPS). Close and late, he reached base 42% of the time, even though he only hit .257. He was good with men in scoring position (.282, 18, 91), and excellent in the same situation with two outs (.377, 12, 52). Of his 47 homeruns, 30 came with men on base, although he did set a new single-season strikeout record (199) and fanned 104 times in 278 AB's with men on. And if it wasn't for Prince, Howard's 12 botches at first would have been a league-high.

Interestingly, Phillies fans were chanting M-V-P every time Rollins came to the plate yesterday, not Howard. But J-Roll's splits suggest the fans may have gotten it wrong. He hit .272 with men in scoring position, .239 with men in scoring position and 2 outs, and .255 close and late. He did have a great September (.298, 6, 18, 14 steals) and a really fine final week (.375, 7 runs, 4 steals). The bottom line is, he was the catalyst for the comeback kids and like Curtis Granderson went 20-20-20-20 in doubles, triples, homeruns, and steals. He actually went 38-20-30-41, while playing outstanding defense at short.

Finally, Wright owns the distinction of being the only 30-30 guy in the big leagues who also hit over .300, scored 100 runs, and drove in 100. He hit .352 in September, .400 the final week, and .364 in the second half. He hit .310 with men in scoring position (but just .200 in the same situation with 2 outs), and was a .346 hitter close and late. He will carry a 17-game hitting into the 2008 season and was also above average defensively at third in terms of range, fielding percentage, and double plays.

So where does that leave us, besides, with 5 really well-qualified candidates? Well, in my opinion, there is one guy who stands slightly above the rest of this terrific group, and that guy is Matt Holliday. Aside from being a very good defensive outfielder (7 assists, a .990 fielding percentage), he's hitting .456, 5, 15, with 15 runs during the Rockies' current 13-1 stretch. And for me, the fact that this guy won a batting title and led the majors in extra base hits really speaks to his offensive prowess.

Truthfully, you can't go wrong with any of these 5 guys in any order. With that said, here's my top 5.

1. Matt Holliday
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. David Wright
4. Prince Fielder
5. Ryan Howard

Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year still to come.

Is He A True Yankee Yet?

Overshadowed by Dioneer Navarro's walk-off homerun in the 10th and a Yankee loss, Alex Rodriguez hit a 3rd inning grand slam last night, and in doing so, became the first player in the history of the game to have 50 homeruns, 150 RBI, and 20 stolen bases in the same season.

His RBI total (151) is the most for a Yankee since Joe DiMaggio in 1948 (155), and his run total (139) is most by a Yankee since Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146).

Not a bad year.

For Those Of You Still Paying Attention

...Alex Rodriguez still needs 7 RBI in his last 9 games to become baseball's first ever 50-150-20 player.

With 1 more stolen base and 7 more RBI, he'll be baseball's first 50-150-25 guy.

Watch how quickly Yankee fans forget though, if he goes 1-12 in the ALDS and New York gets bounced.

The 40 (And 41) Club

Last night, A-Rod became the first hitter in baseball this year to hit 40 homeruns, but Prince Fielder isn't far behind him, after launching number 39 himself. Aside from those two guys, only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard are even to 30 homeruns right now and they're the only two projected to make it to 40, so it's looking like a down-year for big flies to say the least.

It's actually been 12 years (1995) since baseball had just 4 players hit 40 or more homeruns (Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Frank Thomas, Jay Buhner). In the 11 seasons since then, there have been at least 10 players in the 40-club 8 times with a high of 17 in 1996 (Mark McGwire, Brady Anderson, Ken Griffey, Albert Belle, Andreas Gallaraga, Juan Gonzalez, Jay Buhner, Mo Vaughn, Gary Sheffield, Greg Vaughn, Todd Hundley, Frank Thomas, Sammy Sosa, Ellis Burks, Vinny Castilla, and Ken Caminiti). In the three seasons that didn't have at least 10 players hit 40 (2005, 2004, 2002), they came awfully close (9, 9, 8).

And while we're talking about 40, let's talk about 41- the number of consecutive hitters Bobby Jenks had retired before giving up a lead-off single to Joey Gathright last night. Jenks tied the record, but didn't break it, and probably would have if he didn't have an 8 day lay-off between appearances (which happened to coincide with the Sox 8 game losing-streak).

"I messed that one up myself," Jenks said after the game. He apparently shook off his catcher on the pitch that ended up being a base-hit. That may be, Bobby, but your team sure didn't do you any favors either.

There's Only 6 Weeks Left...

...in the 2007 regular season, and I'm not sure if people fully realize what a special year Alex Rodriguez is having, and is on pace to have. I sure wasn't aware of it.

Right now, A-Rod is projected to hit .304 with 51 homeruns, 151 RBI, 146 runs, and 21 steals.

Just for starters, nobody has enjoyed a 50-150 season since Sammy Sosa in 2001 and we all (*) know (*) about (*) what (*) some (*) people (*) think (*) about (*) numbers (*) put (*) up (*) in (*) the (*) late (*) 90s (*) and (*) early (*) 00s. Asterisks aside, Sosa had exactly zero stolen bases that year, meaning he was just a dangerous slugger, not necessarily a dangerous base-runner.

Prior to Slammin' Sammy (who did it again in 1998 and added 18 steals, to boot) you have to go back 69 years to Jimmie Foxx's 1938 season. And was it ever a season. He hit .349 with 50 homers, and 175 RBI. BUT, he stole just 5 bases, and scored (just, ha!) 139 runs. Foxx had an eerily similar season 6 years before, in '32 when he went .364, 58, 169, and 151 runs. But he only had 3 steals that year.

Hack Wilson's RBI-record-setting 1930 season also surpassed the 50-150 threshold, and did so by a wide margin. Hack went .356, 56, 190, and scored 146 runs. But again, he only stole 3 bases (noticing a theme?).

The list wouldn't be complete without a Bambino sighting or two, so here we go. Babe Ruth went 50-150 in 1927, knocking 60 over the fence, driving in 164, and scoring 158 times. But if you guessed he wasn't much of a base-stealer, you were right, at least not that year. He swiped just 7 bags in '27, although he did snag 17 in 1921, the same year he went .378, 59, 171, 177.

And that's it. That's the 50-150 list: Sosa twice in the steroid era, Foxx twice and Wilson once in the 30s, and Ruth twice in the 20s. And not one of those guys stole 20 bases in the same season.

So if A-Rod keeps up his current pace, he'll (a) become the first player to hit 50, drive in 150, and steal 20 in the same year (b) become just the fifth player to hit 50, and drive in 150 in the same year and, if he picks it up just a little (c) become just the third player to enjoy a 50-homer, 150-RBI, 150-run season.

Lest we forget this all could happen in the same season he became the youngest to 500 career homeruns. And people still hate this guy...go figure.

Take Your Pick

I'm curious to know what people think here. What's the more impressive achievement- Barry Bonds and his proverbial "cloud of suspicion," hitting his 755th (and soon enough 756th) career homerun, or Alex Rodriguez hitting his 500th career homerun at 32 years and 8 days of age?

In other words, is Bonds' longevity and sustained power a more admirable feat than the youthful age at which Rodriguez reached a milestone that was once, and may still be, considered a fail-safe measure of a truly elite power hitter?

Once Bonds does reach 756, he and A-Rod will be in completely unchartered territory. Nobody will have hit more homeruns in a single career, and nobody has reached 500 at a younger age.

To be quite honest, I really don't know which one I find more impressive here, which I suppose speaks to the fact that, like many fans, I'm not sure if Bonds reached the record by completely pure methods. Otherwise, I think you have to give the nod to Bonds, hands down. But with A-Rod, so far, free of the performance-enhancing-taint that will no-doubt dog Bonds no matter what investigators find (or don't find), his feats, when compared to Bonds', match up more favorably than they otherwise would.

So, what do you think?

Super Tuesday

After a largely snoozer of a Monday slate, Tuesday is sure not to disappoint baseball fans.

Barry Bonds (who just turned 43 a week ago) is going for career homeruns 755 (and maybe even 756) in Los Angeles, against Cy Young front runner Brad Penny.

Alex Rodriguez, (who just turned 32 on Friday) is going for career homerun 500, at home against Jose Contreras and the White Sox.

And Tom Glavine (who just turned 41 back on March 25) is going for career win 300, in Milwaukee, against Jeff Suppan.

There's also that pesky trade deadline thing at 4 o'clock this afternoon, but I can't imagine we'll see any deals bigger than Mark Teixeira to the Braves

My prediction: none of the above three things happen, and despite a few relievers switching teams, the trade deadline comes and goes quietly. Stay tuned.

Scott Boras Is Now On His Ninth Jack And Coke

Write your own caption for this picture. But as he begins to wrap up a record month of April, A-Rod now says he wants to stay in New York next season.

At first my thought was, man this guy's hard to figure out. But as I thought about it a little, he's not hard to figure out at all. He loves to be loved. Right now, he's hotter than Hansel, so everybody's forgetting about last post-season (including #13 apparently). I'll say this though, there are 140+ games to go, plus playoffs if the Yanks fix their pitching. And if A-Rod costs them a key game or two, goes into a slump, or looks at Derek Jeter the wrong way, he could regret these words.

For now, I'll believe him when he takes the field for the first time as a Yankee in 2008.

Fantasy Question Of The Day

Would you trade Alex Rodriguez right now for Albert Pujols? A month ago, this would have been a slam dunk. Pujols was the consensus #1 overall pick. And coming off of a sub-par year by his standards A-Rod was slipping to the middle of the first round.

Now, it's April 24. A-Rod is closing out one of the finest months in big league history and Pujols is still slumping.
So would you sell A-Rod high to get Pujols while he's, perhaps a bit undervalued?

For the record, here's how the stack up right now...

Rodriguez - .400, 26, 14, 34, 1 (#1 overall in 5x5)
Pujols - .229, 11, 5, 12, 0 (#114 overall in 5x5)

Hmmmmm...

Apparently, I'm not the only person who thinks Alex Rodriguez might leave New York for the Friendly Confines once this season is over, if for no other reason than to re-join Lou Piniella.

And while it's tough to empathize with a guy who makes at least $1 more than everybody else in the big leagues, I couldn't agree with Jemele Hill more about this:

"If the Yankees win it all this season, Jeter gets the credit. If the Yankees lose early in the playoffs again, A-Rod shoulders the blame (again)."

Fair or not, that sums up his situation in the Bronx perfectly.

Top Five Fantasy Questions

As someone who's participated in a fair share of fantasy drafts, I have a pretty good idea of how this year's draft will go.

But I also know that this year, like every year, there are going to be a few things that we just won't know until we're well into the draft, and in some cases, well into the season. So here is my list of top five fantasy draft question marks.

#5. Who's closing and who's best?
ESPN says it's K-Rod. Last year's numbers say it's Joe Nathan and history says it's Mariano Rivera. By the way, B.J. Ryan had the best ERA (1.37) out of all of them! Personally, I think you have to factor in the teams these guys are closing for, and how many opportunities they'll likely get. That, in my mind, gives K-Rod the clear edge as the guy who should go first. That's a much easier question to answer than "who will get the most save chances for the Red Sox?" A handful of guys are competing for that job (Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez) which means there's no clear-cut favorite. There's also some debate in Cincinnati, Florida, and Kansas City. Cheap saves are always a great thing to find on the waiver wire, and there's absolutely no way to know who they're going to come from, without checking every day (remember Joe Borowski and Salomon Torres last year?).

#4. How far does A-Rod slide?
As I've said before, you can probably get A-Rod with the 4th, 5th, or even 6th pick this year, but likely not much later. His .290, 113 R, 35 HR, 121 RBI, 15 SB season a year ago left a lot of people disappointed (mostly people who took him before Albert Pujols, and finished 9th in their 12-team league). Pujols is the consensus number one this year, but how many other people will go before Alex? Johan Santana is the closest thing to Pujols among starting pitchers; dominant and consistent. Jose Reyes seems like this year's trendy choice for his combination of speed, power and run-scoring ability. It's hard to ignore Ryan Howard's 58 HR and 149 RBI. Alfonso Soriano went 40-40 and joined a much better offensive team over the winter. And Chase Utley is a stud at a very thin position. Heck, A-Rod might not even be the first third baseman taken in your league. David Wright is awfully good (.311, 96, 26, 116, 20) and Miguel Cabrera is awfully good (.339, 112, 26, 114, 9) and the difference between those guys and A-Rod is they're 24, while he's 31.

#3. Mark Prior?
The mere mention of his name has become a question in and of itself. I know a lot of people have given up on this guy, and for good reason. Yes, he's been on the DL 8 times in 5 seasons. Yes, he went 1-6 with an ERA over 7.00 in 9 starts last season before the Cubs put him on dry-dock. But the ghost of 2003 still lingers in some owners' minds. He turns 27 in September, he says he's healthy, so far it looks like he's healthy, and if he is, and stays that way, look out. ESPN has him 233rd overall (after Anibel Sanchez, and before Daniel Cabrera) and MLB.com has him as the 48th best pitcher (after Scott Olsen and before Tim Hudson). Nobody knows how he'll fare in 2007, but I know this much, he'll either get taken way too early, or way too late in your league.

#2. When do all the rookies go, and how will they do?
Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Homer Bailey, Phillip Hughes, Chris Young (not the tall guy on the Padres), and Kevin Kouzmanoff...you'll probably hear all these names called on draft day. Some will be good, some will be really disappointing. The key is picking this year's Hanley Ramirez, rather than this year's Jeremy Hermida. Delmon Young is easily the most highly-touted of the group, and he probably won't disappoint, but for some reason I get the feeling that, like Prince Fielder last year, he's not going to deliver, relative to where you'll have to pick him. Fielder had a solid first season (.271, 28, 81) but you know how many other guys put up comparable numbers and went a lot later in the draft, simply because they aren't named Prince Fielder? I fear the same will be true of Young. Gordon is battling for KC's third base job, TT has shortstop locked up in Colorado which could afford him the opportunity to put up some good numbers, Bailey and Hughes are expected to be big-time contributors to the Reds and Yankees' pitching staffs in the future, Young has to beat out Eric Byrnes in Arizona but has 30-30 potential, and Kouzmanoff plays in San Diego (check minus). And before you point out the fact that I forgot the biggest rookie of 2007, please read on...

#1. How good is Daisuke Matsuzaka, really?
ESPN.com ran a really interesting story on the gyroball he allegedly throws, and how nobody can hit it. It's thrown kind of like a football, it's said to spin sideways like a bullet coming out of a gun, and the end result is an uber-slider that breaks down a foot, and up to three feet opposite arm side. I stumbled upon this blog and spent probably half an hour reading it and following his links. It's called "Matsuzaka Watch," and it's about Dice-K, and Dice-K alone. There's also an interesting CBS News piece on the gyroball , which I found through the ESPN E-Ticket piece. Anyway, the Sox spent boatloads to get him, Japanese pitchers don't exactly have a fantastic track record in the US (see Irabu, Hideki) and baseball writers' early reviews have been mixed. He's ranked 99th overall on ESPN (after Chad Cordero, before Alex Rios), and he's ranked 70th overall on MLB.com (after Michael Young, before Dan Haren). There's even a where to draft Matsuzaka article out there. I don't know what to think, honestly. I'm sure he'll probably go high in a lot of drafts just because of the elusive factor and because of what people are saying about him. But rookies, in general, go a lot higher than they should and there are probably much safer 5th and 6th round picks out there. It's just a question of whether you want to play it safe on draft day.

First It Was Brangelina And TomKat...

Now, it appears there's a new celebrity couple that everyone's talking about. That's right, it's D-Rod. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez's relationship is apparently the only thing that's actually newsworthy in Yankee-land. Sure there's Mariano's contract, and the Bernie Williams situation. Plus, most people are picking the Sox, who finished 3rd last year, to win the East. Of yeah, they haven't won a World Series since 2000, and haven't even been since 2003, despite having one of, if not the highest payroll each year. There's the pitching staff face-lift. There's Joe Torre's job. There's the 1b/DH/LF cluster-you-know-what involving Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera. And there's the Yanks, all-of-the-sudden-good-again farm system.
But forget about that. Did you see the way Alex looked at Derek when they were taking fungos? I mean, what was that all about?!?!?!?

This is absurd. Who cares how often they stayed over at each other's houses? Who cares how much they talk/party/share their feelings/text-message each other? Even Jeter says he doesn't know why this is a huge story all of the sudden.

Quoting him (and he's absolutely right), "It has no bearing on us playing baseball."

You can't possibly tell me that if Jeter gave A-Rod a big hug before the start of last year's playoffs, he wouldn't have gone 1-14.

Yes, this is early front-runner for "Biggest Non-Story Of 2007," and the scary part is, it's not even March.

Will He Be Yanked At Season's End?

Apparently there's a clause in A-Rod's contract that enables him to leave New York at the end of the 2007 season, and join another club. So the first question is, will he do it? And the second question is, if so, where's he going to go?

Personally, I loved the beginning, italicized part of Jerry Crasnick's article, mainly because I think it's a fairy accurate representation of what is going to happen in the not-too-distant future. Okay, he's a good-looking dude, makes a sinful amount of money, and hasn't exactly been Mr. Clutch in the post-season. But New York isn't for everybody, A-Rod's still on a short list of the best players in the game (and may end up on a short list of the best ever), and he still has a whole lot of career ahead of him. So my thinking is, why not cut your losses, start fresh, and help a team "on the verge" (the Chicago Cubs, or Los Angeles Angels seem like perfect fits) really become a serious contender in 2008.

Let's face the facts, A-Rod could hit 75 steroid-free home runs next season and it would still be Derek Jeter's team. He's the guy with all the rings, not A-Rod. Even if A-Rod hits .500 this post-season, Jeter would make some highlight-reel defensive play and get a big hit or two, and it's all everyone would be talking about in the Bronx.

Imagine what A-Rod could do in a less media-intense market (there are 28 of them, by the way). He could sit back, rake, win a bunch of MVP's, get the championship monkey off his back the way Peyton Manning did a few days ago, and not have to worry about winning over fickle New York fans (35 home runs and 121 RBI!?! That's it!?!??! This guy SUCKS!).

I can see it now...Game 6 of the 2008 World Series in New York...A-Rod, now Chicago's shortstop, goes deep twice of Chien-Ming Wang (because he's not a number one, but the closest thing the Yanks have to one). In doing so, he helps Lou Pineilla forget about his days in Tampa, helps Steve Bartman emerge from the witness protection program, and helps every Cubbie fan forget about the last 100 years and party like it's 1908 all over again. What a story that would be.

Step Aside A-Rod

For the last few years, the consensus #1 overall pick in almost every fantasy baseball draft was Alex Rodriguez. When he lost his shortstop eligibility, a few people lost faith, but for the most part, he was still one of the first, if not the first player off the board.

That's mainly because you knew what you were getting- an average slightly above .300, 40+ homers, 120+ RBI, 20 steals, and 120 runs. But he failed to deliver on 4 of those 5 "promises" last year. And that means this year, he's just slightly less valuable, almost in the "great-but-not-first-pick-overall-great" category. That also means, for better or worse, you'll probably be able to get him at #3, #4 or even as late as #5.

So just how "bad" was his 2006? Well, he hit .290 (15 points below his career average), he hit 35 homeruns (8 below his career seasonal average), drove in 121 (just 4 below his career average), scored 113 times (13 off his usual pace), and swiped 15 bags (7 fewer than we'd grown to expect). Those are great stats. Just not A-Rod great. He's still the best third baseman around, although David Wright and Miguel Cabrera aren't far behind. And their presence in most first-rounds explains why A-Rod isn't quite so special any more.

So if A-Rod isn't the no-brainer, top pick this season? Who is? In my opinion, it's Albert Pujols. And I say that, even though Alfonso Soriano was, hands-down the most valuable player in 5x5 leagues last year.

What separates Albert from Alfonso, in my mind, is the peace of mind you'll get when you draft him. What's the worst season he's had since he joined the league? It's probably his second season, 2002. During his "sophomore slump" Pujols only went .314, 34, 127, with 118 runs scored. And last season he missed the most amount of time he ever had in one season (19 games), but still set career highs in homeruns and RBI.

Now let's look at Soriano. Sure I'd love it if he repeats his 2006, goes 40-40 and drives in 95 (although I'm not too keen on the .277 average). But what if he has another 2004 (.280, 28, 91, 18 steals, 77 runs)? My point is, history says Soriano's bad year is going to be a whole lot worse than Pujols' bad year, and in the first round, it's more about not screwing up, because all the players are excellent with the potential to be God-like.

Possibly bumping A-Rod down the depth chart even more are guys like Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, and even Johan Santana. Howard (who is actually older than Pujols, believe it or not) was the most prolific power hitter in the game last year. Nobody else even came close . He's averaging a dinger every 11.4 at-bats for his career. And it doesn't hurt that he'll play 81 games in Philly.

Reyes is interesting. If his ceiling is as high as most people think it is, hitting in the lineup he's hitting in, there's no reason to think he won't hit .300 again, come close to 25 homeruns, drive in another 85, steal another 60, and score 130 times. If he does that, he might be a better pick than Soriano.

Then there's Santana. The days of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez all being safe fantasy pitching options are over. And because there's such a significant drop off from Santana to the 2nd best pitcher, Chris Carpenter, and an even bigger drop off to #3, 4 and 5 (Carlos Zambrano, Roy Halladay, and Jake Peavy, in some order), Santana has that special, scarce quality. Plus, there's the fact that, like Pujols, he's been so predictably superb.

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, Santana has won 20, 16 and 19 games. He's struck out 265, 238, and 245. His ERA has been 2.61, 2.88, 2.77. And his WHIP has been 0.92, 0.97, and 1.00. You know Santana is going to be the best pitcher in the game in at least 3 categories, and he'll be among the leaders in wins too.

Where A-Rod fits in with this bunch remains to be seen. And if he has another 2005 in 2007, he'll be right back where he was before the start of last season- among the top two picks, most likely. But he's not there this year, at least not for me. For the record, here's my mock first-round in a 12-team league.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Johan Santana
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jose Reyes
6. Ryan Howard
7. David Wright
8. David Ortiz
9. Vladimir Guerrero
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Chase Utley
12. Carl Crawford