Step Aside A-Rod

For the last few years, the consensus #1 overall pick in almost every fantasy baseball draft was Alex Rodriguez. When he lost his shortstop eligibility, a few people lost faith, but for the most part, he was still one of the first, if not the first player off the board.

That's mainly because you knew what you were getting- an average slightly above .300, 40+ homers, 120+ RBI, 20 steals, and 120 runs. But he failed to deliver on 4 of those 5 "promises" last year. And that means this year, he's just slightly less valuable, almost in the "great-but-not-first-pick-overall-great" category. That also means, for better or worse, you'll probably be able to get him at #3, #4 or even as late as #5.

So just how "bad" was his 2006? Well, he hit .290 (15 points below his career average), he hit 35 homeruns (8 below his career seasonal average), drove in 121 (just 4 below his career average), scored 113 times (13 off his usual pace), and swiped 15 bags (7 fewer than we'd grown to expect). Those are great stats. Just not A-Rod great. He's still the best third baseman around, although David Wright and Miguel Cabrera aren't far behind. And their presence in most first-rounds explains why A-Rod isn't quite so special any more.

So if A-Rod isn't the no-brainer, top pick this season? Who is? In my opinion, it's Albert Pujols. And I say that, even though Alfonso Soriano was, hands-down the most valuable player in 5x5 leagues last year.

What separates Albert from Alfonso, in my mind, is the peace of mind you'll get when you draft him. What's the worst season he's had since he joined the league? It's probably his second season, 2002. During his "sophomore slump" Pujols only went .314, 34, 127, with 118 runs scored. And last season he missed the most amount of time he ever had in one season (19 games), but still set career highs in homeruns and RBI.

Now let's look at Soriano. Sure I'd love it if he repeats his 2006, goes 40-40 and drives in 95 (although I'm not too keen on the .277 average). But what if he has another 2004 (.280, 28, 91, 18 steals, 77 runs)? My point is, history says Soriano's bad year is going to be a whole lot worse than Pujols' bad year, and in the first round, it's more about not screwing up, because all the players are excellent with the potential to be God-like.

Possibly bumping A-Rod down the depth chart even more are guys like Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, and even Johan Santana. Howard (who is actually older than Pujols, believe it or not) was the most prolific power hitter in the game last year. Nobody else even came close . He's averaging a dinger every 11.4 at-bats for his career. And it doesn't hurt that he'll play 81 games in Philly.

Reyes is interesting. If his ceiling is as high as most people think it is, hitting in the lineup he's hitting in, there's no reason to think he won't hit .300 again, come close to 25 homeruns, drive in another 85, steal another 60, and score 130 times. If he does that, he might be a better pick than Soriano.

Then there's Santana. The days of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez all being safe fantasy pitching options are over. And because there's such a significant drop off from Santana to the 2nd best pitcher, Chris Carpenter, and an even bigger drop off to #3, 4 and 5 (Carlos Zambrano, Roy Halladay, and Jake Peavy, in some order), Santana has that special, scarce quality. Plus, there's the fact that, like Pujols, he's been so predictably superb.

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, Santana has won 20, 16 and 19 games. He's struck out 265, 238, and 245. His ERA has been 2.61, 2.88, 2.77. And his WHIP has been 0.92, 0.97, and 1.00. You know Santana is going to be the best pitcher in the game in at least 3 categories, and he'll be among the leaders in wins too.

Where A-Rod fits in with this bunch remains to be seen. And if he has another 2005 in 2007, he'll be right back where he was before the start of last season- among the top two picks, most likely. But he's not there this year, at least not for me. For the record, here's my mock first-round in a 12-team league.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Johan Santana
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jose Reyes
6. Ryan Howard
7. David Wright
8. David Ortiz
9. Vladimir Guerrero
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Chase Utley
12. Carl Crawford