By "Miggy" Did He Mean "Mauer?"

Joe Mauer is the American League's 2009 MVP.  No argument, or real surprise there.  Dude was Senior Consistency this year, hitting basically .350 or better in every splits situation they measure and probably a few they don't (day game on a Wednesday, runner named Mike on first?).  Plus no player was on base more often, or slugged higher than he did and he plays the most demanding position on the field.

No, the real surprise during today's MVP voting was the fact that Miguel Cabrera received more first-place votes (1) than Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira combined.

I'm not saying Miggy didn't have a great year because he did, but let's break it down.  His batting average and on base percentage wasn't as good as Mauer's or Jeter's.  He didn't hit as many dingers, drive in as many, or slug as high as Teixiera, plus only 4 AL first baseman had more errors than his 7 (I know defense doesn't matter a ton in MVP voting, but my point is Tex had the better all-around season). 

And perhaps this is going through his numbers with too fine-toothed of a comb but...over the Tigers last 9 games of the season (where they blew a 2 game lead in the AL Central and ended up missing the postseason) he hit just .205 with 3 RBI.  These were critical games against the White Sox and Twins and his team went 3-6 in that stretch.  If you recall, right smack dab in the middle of all this was the domestic incident with his wife where, according to police, he was more than three times over the legal limit, "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated."  Nobody was charged with a crime and I wouldn't say this rough patch alone would automatically disqualify him from the award. I'm just saying Mauer, Jeter, and Tex kept their noses clean when it mattered most.

Apparently the one guy who gave Miggy a first place vote is a writer from Japan.  Curious, to say the least. 

It's also worth pointing out that this is the second time in a week that a Detroit Tiger has inexplicably received a first-place vote for a major postseason award despite the presence of several more qualified candidates.  Justin Verlander had a great season just like Miguel Cabrera did.  But just like Miggy wasn't better than Mauer, Jeter, or Tex, Verlander wasn't better than Greinke or King Felix.

I'm Back!

After a nearly one-year hiatus, I've decided to re-take-up (soooo not an actual English phrase) blogging. Sorry for the lack of posts in the last calendar year. I was...busy?
 
Okay...let's talk awards.  No beef so far with either of the Rookies of the Year (Coghlan and Bailey) or AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke.  It's a lock Albert Pujols wins NL MVP, so the only real drama seems to be NL Cy Young and AL MVP.


NL Cy Young 
In the senior circuit, it's essentially a race between Tim Lincecum, and whichever Cardinals starter you like better- Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright.  That said, here's a look at their numbers from this season in a way you probably haven't looked at them yet.  Based on the numbers they compiled throughout the course of the year, here is the average pitching line for each of our contenders in the 2009 season.



Lincecum- 7.04 IP, 5.25 H, 2.13 BB, 1.94 ER, 8.16 K's, 107.5 pitches

Carpenter- 6.88 IP, 5.57 H, 1.36 BB, 1.71 ER, 5.14 K's, 95.4 pitches

Wainwright- 6.85 IP, 6.35 H, 1.94 BB, 2.00 ER, 6.24 K's, 106.3 pitches



Looking at it this way, trendy stats like quality start percentage, WHIP, and batting average or OPS against take care of themselves.  


So what do we take away from these three average pitching lines?  Whose would you rather have?  Well, first-off we see Lincecum recorded an average of half an out more per start than his next closest competitor.  I like that a lot.  We also see that in terms of baserunners allowed per start (7.38 for Lincecum, 6.93 for Carpenter, 8.29 for Wainwright) Wainwright was the least impressive.  He didn't pitch as deep into games as the other two, took more pitches to get there than Carpenter and almost as many as Lincecum, plus he allowed the most runners by far.  To top it all off, Lincecum has the clear edge in strikeouts, which in some respects makes his higher walk rate less relevant.  And when you factor in Carpenter's 28 starts compared to 32 and 34 for Lincecum and Wainwright respectivley, it's a cakewalk as far as I'm concerned.  Lincecum was clearly the best of all NL pitchers in '09 with Carpenter second and Wainwright third.  The actual winner is announced today at 2PM.



AL MVP
Much tougher to quantify in my opinion because the main contenders- Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, and Mark Teixeira are different kinds of players.  Jeter is your prototypical leadoff hitter who handles the bat well, sees lots of pitches, gets on base, runs and gives his team a 1-0 lead.  Mauer is a classic number two or three hitter- high average, lots of balls in play, good line drive stroke and tough to strike out.  And Tex is about as good of a middle-of-the-order, thumper type as you could ask for- a threat to go yard every time up with tons of RBI.  And all three won Gold Gloves this year (although some pundits have questioned whether any of them deserved it).


As a starting point, here are their basic numbers from 2009:


Jeter- .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer- .365 AVG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira- .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS


All very impressive.  


Digging deeper (because I am a firm believer that an MVP candidate finishes the season strong and has to get a lot of big hits throughout the course of the season) here are some other things to consider.  Jeter hit .351 after the break and had a .450 OBP in September, but hit just .259 in his 135 at-bats with men in scoring position.  Tex hit .313 after the break including a .343, 7 HR month of September.  He also hit .355 with 31 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.  And while he hit just .264 overall with men in scoring position, he also had an on-base percentage of more than .400 in that scenario.  So in those 174 at-bats, he had 46 hits and 39 walks- selective in that good Yankee lineup. 


Here's where Joe Mauer is no ordinary Joe, though.  He hit .358 in the second half, and had an OPS of at least .997 in each of the following situations: leading off an inning, nobody on, at least one baserunner on, runner(s) in scoring position, runner(s) in scoring position and 2 out, and the bases loaded.  To top it all off, in 113 at-bats in September and October while his team was in a dogfight to get into the postseason, he hit .354 with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12).  And he did this while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond.


It's because of that fact that I give the nod to Mauer for MVP with Tex second and Jeter a close third.  AL MVP will be announced Monday.

Awards, Still Watching And Waiting

At this time last year, just about all of the major awards were either completely decided, or down to a two-man race. A-Rod, we all knew, was going to breeze to the AL MVP. Jake Peavy, we all knew, was going to breeze to NL Cy Young Award. And for awards like AL Cy Young, NL MVP and NL ROY, it was basically a voter coin-flip between, respectively, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

If it was just that easy last year, it's just that hard this year because for a number of big awards, there is still no clear-cut favorite even though most teams have a little more than 10 games to play. That said, I'll start with some easy ones, like AL Cy Young. Cliff Lee and his baseball-leading win total and ERA should trump Roy Halladay for AL Cy Young, although it's worth pointing out Halladay has many more K's, a slightly better WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has been getting a run and a half less support than Lee all season.

For AL ROY, I'm still giving the nod to Evan Longoria, although this vote won't be as lopsided as it appeared a few weeks ago. Longoria has just 11 at-bats since August 8th because of an injury and in that time, his team's lead in the East has slipped from 3.5 games down to percentage points. Still, he's hitting, hitting for power, and playing great defense at third. That's not to take away from Jacoby Ellsbury who is closing in on 50 steals and 90 runs scored for the Sox, but I think Longoria is the more complete player right now.

And for NL ROY, Geovanny Soto (who really only has competition from Joey Votto of Cincinnati) should win this award unanimously. His OPS is .872, he has 58 extra base hits, and he's the All-Star backstop on the NL team with the best record.

Here's where it gets tricky...AL MVP. At the break, it looked like somebody from Texas was going to win this- either Ian Kinsler or Josh Hamilton. The problem now is, Kinsler hit under .260 in 120 post ASB at-bats before being shut down for the season following hernia surgery. And Hamilton, who's currently tied for the big league RBI lead, has seen his run production slow significantly from his torrid pre-break pace. That's allowed others to begin to enter the discussion, including Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Grady Sizemore.

Personally, I eliminate Quentin right off the bat because he broke his own hand on a bat in early September in the midst of a peannant race. I don't care if he is leading the AL in homeruns, I can't think of what's less valuable than that. Nobody has more RBI than Morneau, he has 3 more strikeouts than walks, and even though he's slowed in the second half too, his numbers close and late, with men on, and with men in scoring position are all excellent. Pedroia and Youkilis will likely hurt each other in the voting, although they've been the most consistent Sox hitters all year. Pedroia leads the AL in runs, has hit over .350 in the second half, his pressure splits (runners on, close and late) are very good, you have to love the 48 walks and 48 strikeouts, he plays a marvelous second base, and you might be surprised to learn he has more extra base hits than both Manny and A-Rod. Youkilis has more extra base hits than Pedroia to go along with 100+ RBI. His OPS is 4th in the AL, and his splits, while not quite as good as Pedroia, are still excellent. Then there's a man named Grady who will end up as the only 30-30 guy in the AL this year. The 93 walks are great and he's third in the AL in extra base hits. But he's slowed way down in the second half, his splits are good but not great, and he's not on a contender. If I had to vote today, I'd go...Morneau, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hamilton, Sizemore.

It gets even messier in the NL because it raises the question of exactly where astronomically productive mid-season acquisitions should fit into the discussion of awards that measure a full season's production in one league. With NL MVP, clearly Albert Pujols and his MLB-best 1.115 OPS is having another extraordinary year (not to mention the fact that he's doing it with one elbow). Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Ryan Braun...they've all put up unbelievable numbers too. Then there's Manny. And to use a tired phrase, he's just being Manny again. Since switching leagues and joining the Dodgers 42 games ago, he's hitting .395 with 14 homeruns, 43 RBI, 29 runs scored, and a 1.221 OPS. And perhaps more convincing, his team went from being 2 back in the NL West to 4.5 up in the NL West! But what about the 100 games where he was in the other league? That's more than 60% of the season. Does that count for nothing? Complicating matters even further is C.C. Sabathia. Not only is he a pitcher (and thus, according to some, not a viable MVP candidate) but he too is a mid-season league changer. But he's also been a game-changer. In his 13 starts for the Brewers, he's 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, a nearly 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and Milwaukee is 12-1 in those games. Can a player be more valuable than that? When he pitches, his team wins 92% of the time! Then again, he also made 18 starts for the Indians, which for a starting pitcher, accounts for slightly more than half a season.

And if you don't like Sabathia for MVP, how about Cy Young? There, he's competing against a smaller field of worthy candidates, but Tim Lincecum (17 wins, ML-best 237 K's, NL-best 2.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (NL-best 20 wins and unlike Lincecum, in a playoff chase) are stiff competition.

My feeling is, as good as Ramirez has been, there are other NL hitters who've (a) been in the league all season and (b) been as hot as Manny for as long of a stretch, like, for example, Mr. Pujols (see April and May, or the month of August). He's kept his team in the race (along with the help of Ryan Ludwick) a lot longer than they should have hung around, he's hitting over .370 in the second half, his splits are great, and his OPS is silly. It's almost 80 points higher than anyone else in baseball.

For Cy Young, Lincecum's numbers are by far the most superior of the group, but his team is 10 games back and really hasn't factored into the playoff picture all season. In other words, are his numbers worth inherently less than the numbers of a playoff-bound, or playoff-pushing pitcher? They just might be. Then again, Cy Young tends to focus more on the pitcher and not his team. That's why, no matter what happens, I think Lincecum should win this award.

But that doesn't mean C.C. gets shut out. By my math, he has 3 starts left this season, two of which will come against the division leading Cubs, and one of which will be on the second-to-last game of the season. If he wins all three he'd finish 12-0 with an ERA right around 2.00. If that happens, and the Brewers make the playoffs, I don't see how you give the MVP to somebody else. He will have been a Brewer for half the season, he will have put this team on his back and gotten them into the playoffs (again, if he finishes 3-0, the Crew will be 15-1 in his starts). No other NL player will have had such a meaningful impact on his team in 2008. Of course, if he gets bombed tonight, all bets are off. But somehow, I doubt that's going to happen.

It's In The Books

The first half is officially over and things are starting to return to normal. Chipper Jones is no longer flirting with .400 and the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer in first place in the AL East. Still, a lot can happen in the final 65-or-so games of the '08 season and many of the major awards races are still really close. But at this point, these guys have the upper hand...

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton (.310, 21 homeruns, 95 RBI)

I had to count some dangling chads on this one, because Hamilton and teammate Ian Kinsler are separated by an even smaller margin than Dubbya and Al Gore were in 2000. Both hitters are to thank for a surprisingly good Texas team, which enters the break above .500. Both have been incredible run producers, and both have been good in the clutch. I'm giving the edge to Hamilton though because in my opinion it's inherently harder to drive in runs than to score runs. Good pitchers bear down with men on base and in scoring position and bad pitchers pitch around the middle of the order. But no pitcher has been able to contain Hamilton, who enters the break on pace to drive in 162 runs this season. Only 11 players in major league history have driven in more in a single season and with the exception of Manny Ramirez in 1999, all of them played before 1938. That's how prolific Hamilton's been. That's why he's my mid-season MVP. Also receiving votes: Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez (.311, 23 homeruns, 80 runs, 23 steals)

What doesn't this guy do well? The answer is...not much. He's one of just two players at the break with 20+ homeruns and 20+ steals (a man named Grady is the other). He has more bombs, steals, and runs scored than Lance Berkman (and is on a competitive team) and has a higher average, more runs, and more steals than Chase Utley. At the beginning of the season, I was guilty of thinking that without Miguel Cabrera, Ramirez's numbers would drop off a bit. I won't make that mistake again. Also receiving votes: Berkman, Utley, Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)

Perhaps this is my Oakland bias shining through here. Or perhaps it's the fact that I like pitchers who don't allow baserunners. JD's WHIP is silly. A starter allowing 6 baserunners for every seven innings pitched is absolutely unheard of these days. And if you want further proof that he's been the best of the best, look at his game log. His "worst" outing of the year is either his May 18 start in Atlanta (3 earned over 5) or his May 1 start in LA (6 runs, but only one earned over 5, in a win against the Angels). Who cares if he doesn't get many strikeouts? His stuff is dirty. Also receiving votes: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 K's)

Talk about your classic case of "boy, that trade sure benefitted both teams," Volquez has been to the Reds what Josh Hamilton has been for the Rangers. He's leading the league in ERA, he's second in wins, and he's tied for third in K's. And you thought we'd be saying that about Johan Santana this time of year? Also receiving votes: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb

AL ROY - Evan Longoria (.275, 16 homeruns, 53 RBI)

As good as advertised, if not better. He's become Delmon Young before Delmon Young has become Delmon Young. Plus he runs a little bit (6 steals), plays a magnificent third base, and was selected to the All-Star game after just 300 big league at-bats. Not bad. Also receiving votes: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy

NL ROY - Geovanny Soto (.288, 16 homeruns, 56 RBI)

So Evan Longoria is an All-Star, huh? That's nice. Soto is an All-Star starter! He's far and away the cream of the NL newbie crop, and he's leading all rookies in OPS on a first-place team. The one chink in his armor? He's only thrown out 15 of 58 base stealers- third worst for qualifying NL catchers. As long as he keeps raking, I'm sure the Cubbies will deal with it. Also receiving votes: Kosuke Fukodome, Jair Jurrjens

AL LVP - Paul Konerko (.217, 9 homeruns, 34 RBI)

Yes, he's missed about 25 games. But the White Sox have missed his big bat in the other 68 he's actually played in. I was about to write that PK is a guy who's been a lock for 35 and 100+ batted in for the last few years, but that's actually not true. His homerun total will likely drop for a 4th straight year this season, his average- for a third straight year, and his RBI total- for a second straight year. These are surprising trends for a guy who turned just 32 in spring training. Also receiving votes: Robinson Cano. Edgar Renteria, Chone Figgins

NL LVP - Andruw Jones (.164, 2 homeruns, 10 RBI)

Usually, I don't like to give these awards to guys who've been hurt, but Jones has redefined what it means to be terrible. During a 7-year stretch from 2000 to 2006, he averaged more than 37 homeruns and 109 RBI a season. Last year when he fell off to 26 and 94 with a .222 average, I thought it was an abberation and so did the Dodgers. Now, I'm not so sure because he looks so absolutely clueless at the plate. Case and point- he's striking out once every 2.8 at bats this year and has twice as many wiffs as hits! He'll be a free agent at the end of the year and his list of potential suitors will be exponentially smaller than everyone would have imagined just a few years ago. Like Konerko, his rapid decline is also surprising considering he's just 31. Also receiving votes: Eric Byrnes, Ryan Zimmerman, Khalil Greene

AL Cy Anora - Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

At the beginning of the season the thinking was, the A's would try to move Blanton, a useful innings eater, to a playoff contender right around the trade deadline. Now, they'd probably have a hard time trading him for a bucket of pearls and an L-screen. Blanton, while still making all his starts, has been remarkably hittable this season, although it's worth noting his secondary numbers from his '08 campaign are strikingly similar to his '06 campaign when he won a career-high 16 games. That ain't gonna happen this time around. And with all the young arms in Oakland (Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez) JB's days as a starter in the Bay Area may be limited. Also receiving votes: Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez

NL Cy Anora - Aaron Harang (3-11, 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)

Harang was one of the few guys in baseball who has been consistentlty good, consistently healthy, and consistently unnoticed for the last few years. Unfortunately all three of those are out the window this year. He's on the DL now with a bad forearm. It's going to take a miracle for him to get to .500. And he's unlikely to hit 200 K's or 200 IP for the first time since 2005. Oh by the way, he's already allowed 20 homeruns. Also receiving votes: Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo (huh, maybe that's why the Reds are so bad), Roy Oswalt

This Time, He Deserves It

MLB.com is giving out its annual awards right now, as voted upon by nearly 10 million baseball fans worldwide. Today, it was Josh Beckett winning a "This Year In Baseball" award for being the Top Starting Pitcher.

I know it's not nearly as prestigious as the Cy Young, but I also think that because this award encompasses the entire season rather than just the regular season, Beckett was the right choice. In my opinion, the difference between Beckett and C.C. Sabathia during the regular season was so small that Beckett's dominance in the postseason (including two wins against Sabathia, specifically) was more than enough to make him the best starting pitcher in the bigs this past season.

Tomorrow, MLB.com announces the award for closer, an honor which should go to J.J. Putz (1.38, 40 saves, 82K, 49 baserunners in 71 2/3 IP). The day after that, it's best manager (has to be Clint Hurdle, right?), then performance of the year (another one for Beckett?), rookie (let the Braun/Tulowitzki debate begin again), hitter (A-Rod), setup man (Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt), defensive player (Tulowitzki), blooper/play (no idea, maybe the ALDS bug attack in Cleveland or the entire 30-3 game at Camden Yards?) and finally moment/postseason moment (the Rockies beating Trevor Hoffman in extra innings of an extra game to go to the playoffs).

Rollins Vs. Holliday

I know the award was given out a few days ago, but I'm inclined to think the BBWAA got it wrong when Jimmy Rollins edged out Matt Holliday for the 2007 NL MVP. Here's why...

First of all, both players were clearly the MVPs of their own teams, both of which came back from the dead in September to make an improbable playoff appearance, so that's a push. It's not like one guy's team made the postseason and the other's didn't.

With that said, here are there basic numbers from 2007. Holliday hit .340 with a .405 OBP, 36 homeruns, 137 RBI, 11 steals, and 120 runs scored. Rollins hit .296 with a .344 OBP, 30 homeruns, 94 RBI, 41 steals, and 139 runs. Just looking at that, I don't think there's any question Holliday's overall offensive numbers were better. He also outslugged Rollins by more than 70 points, had more walks, and a few more extra base hits.

I know a lot has been made of Rollins' defense and that's certainly a factor to consider in all of this. J-Roll won his first Gold Glove in 2007 after committing just 11 errors at shortstop and turning 110 double plays. Here's the problem. Two other NL shortstops finished with higher fielding percentages (Tulowitzki and Vizquel) and two other NL shortstops (Tulowitzki and Wilson) turned more double plays. Rollins finished 6th in the league in "range factor" which is putouts plus assists divided by innings, and he finished 6th in the league in "zone rating" which is some STATS, Inc. measure of the batted balls a player reaches. In other words, Rollins won the award after having an excellent, but not necessarily a "clearly-best-at-his-position" kind of year. And you know what? Matt Holliday did too, albeit at a much easier position. His 3 errors were second among NL left fielders, his 7 outfield assists were seventh, he had the second best fielding percentage, the 5th best range factor, and the best zone rating. He also had 20 more total chances than any other NL left fielder. But he didn't win the Gold Glove because the voters chose 3 center fielders (Beltran, Rowand, Jones) and a right fielder (Francoeur). So perhaps the defensive gap between Rollins and Holliday has been overstated. You still have to give the edge to Rollins, but it's not a complete cakewalk.

Now let's look at a few splits. To me, these numbers are more telling than any others when it comes to a player's true "value" to his team. These are the numbers that show whether a player came up big when it counted (late in games, late in the season, with men on base, with 2 outs), or whether he just padded his stats once the game was already decided. Holliday hit .330 in August, .367 in September, and .407 the last week of the season. Rollins hit .296, .298, and .375. In terms of OBP over that time period, Holliday went .403, .448, .515...Rollins went .371, .333, and .400. With men on base, Holliday hit .332 with 119 RBI. Rollins hit .314 with 74 RBI. With men on and 2 out, Holliday hit .337 with a 1.026 OPS. Rollins hit .261 with an .842. With runners in scoring position, Holliday hit .333 with 94 RBI and a .947 OPS. Rollins was .272, 64, .877. "Close and late," which is defined as 7th inning or later and either up a run, tied, or with the tying run on deck, Holliday hit .295 with a .935 OPS, Rollins hit .255 with an .808 OPS. And while half of Holliday's homeruns were solo shots, two-thirds of Rollins' round-trippers were.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Matt Holliday was the most valuable player in the National League in 2007, but for some reason, Jimmy Rollins was voted the Most Valuable Player.

To All The Sox Fans C.C.ing Red Right Now...

Yes, your boy Josh Beckett lost out in the Cy Young voting to a guy he beat twice in the ALCS and he did so by a surprisingly large margin. But let's not forget you just won your second World Series title in 4 years, swept the hottest team in postseason history, had the AL Rookie of the Year and two more of your rookies get votes in the category, and your arch-rival just lost their best player to free agency.

Things could be worse. You could be any other team in baseball.

It's Hardware Time, Part 5: Comeback Player Of The Year

I wish I had known they were going to announce these so soon because otherwise I would have posted about them sooner, but let's just say I don't disagree with Carlos Pena and Dmitri Young as the Comeback Players of the Year.

As I've said before, Pena is a simply amazing story. He bested his previous single-season homerun total by 19 this year and finally looks like the player he was supposed to be 5 years ago. Heck, if it wasn't for A-Rod, he probably would have led the league in homeruns (46). Not bad for a guy who wasn't even guaranteed a spot on the lowly Devil Rays in spring training.

Young is a good story too. He's had some off-field problems and also wasn't guaranteed anything in spring training. But he hit and hit and hit and ended up being Washington's sole All-Star representative in San Francisco this year. He also ended up being tied for 10th in the NL in average (.320).

What's interesting for fantasy players next year is that I don't imagine Young will be all-that-hot of a commodity on draft day, whereas Pena could be the the first AL first baseman off the board. Obviously the NL is teeming with talent there (Pujols, Howard, Fielder, Teixeira, Berkman, Lee) but would you take Pena over somebody like Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko? If you think he's going to come anywhere close to duplicating his 2007 season, you probably should. Then again, that's a big "if."

It's Hardware Time, Part 4: Manager Of The Year

American League

I don't think there 's be any question the AL Manager of the Year, regardless of how the Yankees fare in the playoffs, should be Joe Torre. A little over four months ago, New York was 21-29, 14.5 games back of Boston in the East, 9 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card, and people were calling for Torre's job. All they did was go 73-39 in their last 112 games, finishing just 2 back of Red Sox in the East, and finishing with a comfortable 6 game cushion for the Wild Card.

Torre didn't panic. He didn't convert Mariano Rivera into a starter, didn't bench Bobby Abreu, and didn't have any on-field, or locker-room explosions. A consummate class act, Torre has weathered the criticism, the expectations, and the pressure with grace seldom seen.

Eric Wedge also had a wonderful year at the helm for Cleveland, improving the team by 18 games from last season. But comparing the pressure of managing in Cleveland to the pressure of managing in New York is like saying it's just as hard to sink an 8-foot putt on the 18th hole at your local country club as it is to do it in the final round of the British Open.

Congrats Joe.

National League

This is tough, considering there are so many qualified managers for this honor. But with all due respect to Clint Hurdle in Colorado and Charlie Manuel in Philadelphia, I'm going to go with Lou Piniella for much the same reason as I went with Joe Torre. Piniella overcame a dreadful start and tremendous adversity, all in the face of enormous expectations.

From the moment he was introduced as the new manager of the Cubs, the team and its loyal-to-a-fault fans were hoping, praying, and dare I say, expecting to win. Let's not forget the $300 million the club spent in the offseason acquiring Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, Cliff Floyd, and re-signing Carlos Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez.

Early on, things were not all champagne and caviar on the south side of the windy city. Far from it. In fact, on June 2, the Cubbies were a dismal 22-31, ahead of only Cincinnati in the Central. Much like Torre and the Yankees, Sweet Lou finished the season strong, going 63-46 in the team's final 109 games, proving that during the time he spent in Tampa Bay he really was a victim of his circumstances. They put the whole Carlos Zambrano/Michael Barrett thing behind them. They dealt with not having Mark Prior and Kerry Wood for most of the season (again), they lost Soriano for a month down the stretch, Ramirez for parts of June and August, and only had Floyd for 100 games.

I know Phillies and Rockies fans will cry foul at this, especially considering what remarkable comeback stories both teams staged so late in the season. The Phillies went 23-11 from August 26 on, and as everyone on the planet knows, overcame a 7-game deficit with 17 games to go. All Colorado did was win 14 of their last 15 including a 1-game playoff where they beat baseball's all-time saves leader in the 13th inning.

But the fact is, Manuel and Hurdle weren't under the gun the way Piniella was going into the season, and they weren't under the gun the way he was all season long. All three managers delivered this season, but none of them more than Piniella.

It's Hardware Time, Part 3: Rookie Of The Year

American League

Unlike in the National League where there are two fantastic candidates, there really isn't a sexy pick for ROY in the AL. Dice-K was fairly disappointing given all the hype (4.40 ERA, 15-12), Hideki Okajima struggled mightily down the stretch (4.56 post-All-Star ERA), Delmon Young's numbers were decent but not eye-popping (.288, 13, 93) and while Alex Gordon showed some promise, he's not the next A-Rod, yet (.247, 15, 14 steals).

So where does that leave us? Well it leaves us with a scrappy middle infielder who played terrific defense and was a tough out all season long- Dustin Pedroia.

He hit .181 in April but the signs were there that this guy could play. In that otherwise terrible month, he had 10 walks and just 6 K's. For the season, he finished with 47 free passes and 42 wiffs to go along with a .317 average (10th in the AL), .380 OBP and 39 doubles (14th in the AL).

Then there's his defense, which was another asset for the Sox this regular season. His 6 errors were 4th fewest in the league among second baseman, as was his .990 fielding percentage. In other words, this guy can play ball. He's not going to be a fantasy stud by any means, but almost every team in the league would love a second baseman who will hit .300, put the ball in play, have gap power, and play good D. That's exactly what Pedroia does.

National League

In the last 20 years, this league has produced Rookie of the Year flops like Jason Jennings, Scott Williamson, Todd Hollandsworth, and Jerome Walton. That's not the problem this year. This year, there are two guys who are both really good, should both play for a long time and both deserve the award- Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

Braun is already drawing comparisons to Albert Pujols, and with good reason. In his 2001 debut, Fat Albert went .329/37/130 in 161 games. This year in 113 games, Braun went .324/34/97, good for 5th in the league in homeruns, and 8th in average. Extrapolate that out over 162 games and you're looking at a .324/49/140 season with 22 steals. Remind you of a certain AL MVP candidate, 13 years into his career?

Braun's splits are splendid too. He hit .328 with 60 RBI in 128 AB's with men in scoring position, and had a 1.066 OPS with men in scoring position and 2 outs. Close and late he also hit .300 and in September when the Brewers were trying to win a pennant, he went .308/9/29.

The knock against Braun is his defense. He was the worst fielding third baseman in the NL, and the only one with a sub-.900 fielding percentage. His 26 errors led the league. And again, that was in a fraction of the season. Don't be surprised if he's a corner outfielder in '08.

Then there's Tulowitzki. At this point in his career, he is probably more of a complete player than Braun, even though his offensive ceiling isn't nearly as high. Troy finished up at .291/24/99 with 104 runs scored. He also seemed to improve as the season went on, getting 37 of his 62 extra base hits in the second half, and flirting with .300. His "pressure splits" are not as good as Braun's though, nor was his September (.276/6/26).

But Braun's biggest weakness may be Tulowitzki's biggest strength- defense. He should win the NL Gold Glove after leading all major league shortstops with a .987 fielding percentage and turning 114 double plays. His 11 errors were second best at the position behind Omar Vizquel. And his range factor (which is putouts plus assists divided by innings) was also number one in baseball among shortstops.

So if Braun's best case scenario is Albert Pujols, then Tulowitzki's may be a better offensive version of Cal Ripken Jr, minus the streak. The Iron Man is already in the Hall, and Pujols is headed there, so you can't go wrong either way. But I give the nod to Braun here. His season was just too superior offensively to snub. I wouldn't hate it if they split the award either.

It's Hardware Time, Part 2: Cy Young

American League

There are 5 legitimate candidates for this award and they're all on playoff teams...Josh Beckett, Fausto Carmona, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and C.C. Sabathia. They finished 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in wins. And they finished 6th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, and 5th in ERA. But for me, the numbers behind the numbers help separate this 5-pack of aces.

Yes, Beckett was the only 20-game winner in baseball, he plays for a big market team, and finished top-10 in strikeouts and ERA. This is usually a sure-fire formula for the award, but this year, I really do think at least one pitcher had a better year.

Consider this. Five of Beckett's 20 wins came in the following outings:

April 4 - 5 IP, 1 ER at Kansas City
April 21 - 6.2 IP, 4 ER against New York
July 5 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Tampa Bay
July 20 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Chicago
August 24 - 5.2 IP, 3 ER at Chicago

Now I realize he had a few tough losses/no decisions along the way (I count 3 to be exact) but for the most part, when he pitched moderately well, he won, and when he didn't, he lost. His win total was also buoyed by a run support (6.59) that was 4th best in the AL, and second highest among non-Yankee starters. In other words, he probably shouldn't have won 20 games, which means we shouldn't be distracted by that statistic. And I've long been a believer that "wins" does not measure a pitcher's Cy Young qualifications nearly as well as quality start percentage, opponents batting average against, innings pitched, WHIP, and strikeouts. So with the field leveled, let's look at those other numbers.

Beckett and Sabathia were the top dogs of the 5 in WHIP (1.14). Carmona and Lackey's were slightly higher (1.21), and Escobar was last in the group at 1.27. Sabathia also led the group in strikeouts, notching 209 to Beckett's 194, Lackey's 179, Escobar's 160, and Carmona's 137. On top of that, he led baseball with 241 innings pitched. Lackey's the only other one in the group to top 220. Beckett had the lowest batting average against but not by much. He held hitters to a .245 clip, compared to .248 for Escobar and Carmona, .254 for Lackey, and .259 for Sabathia. And in terms of quality starts, Carmona (81%), edges his teammate (74%). Lackey (73%), along with Escobar and Beckett (67%) round out the top 5.

Back to Sabathia now. Whereas Beckett won a few questionable outings, Sabathia failed to win each of these outings:

April 20 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
June 10 - 9 IP, 0 ER at Cincinnati
June 24 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Boston
June 29 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Minnesota
August 8 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Chicago
August 14 - 7 IP, 2 ER versus Detroit
August 19 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
August 24 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Kansas City

Like Beckett, he also won a few he probably shouldn't have (I count 4). But balancing that out with the 8 starts above that he didn't win leads you to the conclusion that he easily could have won 22 or 23 this season with secondary numbers superior to Beckett's. That is why he should win the award. But I bet the voters get this one wrong. For further proof, I submit to you the average 2007 start for each of the 5 guys in the running:

Beckett - 6.7 IP, 6.3 H, 2.4 ER, 1.3 BB, 6.5 Ks
Carmona - 6.7 IP, 6.2 H, 2.3 ER, 1.9 BB, 4.3 K's
Escobar - 6.5 IP, 6.1 H, 2.5 ER, 2.2 BB, 5.3 K's
Lackey - 6.8 IP, 6.6 H, 2.3 ER, 1.6 BB, 5.4 K's
Sabathia - 7.1 IP, 7.0 H, 2.5 ER, 1.1 BB, 6.1 K's

Here's my top 5.

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Kelvim Escobar

National League
This one's easy. Even with Jake Peavy's disappointing performance last night against the Rockies, he still led the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP, while finishing 2nd in winning percentage, and 4th in innings pitched.

Brandon Webb was the Magglio Ordonez of NL pitchers. He picked a bad year to have a great year, going 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA, and 194 K's and was the only pitcher to throw more innings than Peavy (236.1). He finished second in the league in wins and ERA, 4th in K's, 7th in WHIP, and actually led the NL in complete games (4).

But unfortunately for BW, it doesn't matter that Peavy and the Pads are left to watch October baseball at home. His was the superior year.

Here's my top 5.

1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Smoltz (3.11 ERA, 197 K's, 1.18 WHIP)
4. Cole Hamels (3.39 ERA, 177 K's, 1.12 WHIP, opponents hit .205 in second half)
5. Brad Penny (3.03 ERA, 79% of starts were quality, went 16-4)

It's Hardware Time, Part 1: MVP

While the regular season was still going on, I gave my picks for baseball's biggest awards at the end of each month (except for July, when I did it at the end of the first half). But now that the season is over and because a few races are, in my opinion, incredibly tight, I am going to devote a little more time and a few more words to each, by splitting them up into individual posts.

With that said, let's start with MVP.

American League
This is really a two-man race, although Yankee fans would disagree. But the reality is, Magglio Ordonez's season was simply too good to dismiss. First, let's look at their basic numbers. Maggs led the majors with a .363 batting average and 54 doubles. On top of that, he drove in 139 (2nd in the AL) and enjoyed a .439 OBP (also 2nd in the AL). You can add to that 117 runs, 28 homeruns, and three more strikeouts (79) than walks (76). Alex Rodriguez on the other hand led the majors in homeruns (54), RBI (156), runs (143), slugging (.645) and OPS (1.067), while swiping 24 bases and hitting .314.

Deeper digging reveals Ordonez hit .423 with 105 RBI in 189 AB's with runners in scoring position, but when the pressure increased, his numbers returned to Earth. With men on and 2 out his average dipped to .309, and with 2 out and men in scoring position it was just .299. Even less impressive- his .247 average and .333 OBP late and close.

A-Rod's key splits are much more consistent. With men in scoring position he hit .330 with 97 RBI in 176 AB's. With men on and two outs he hit .326 with an astonishing 21 homeruns in just 141 AB's. And late and close he hit .357 with a .439 OBP. Interestingly, only 18 of his 54 homeruns were solo. Basically he was always clutch.

That's why A-Rod is my choice and should be everyone else's. On the surface, his overall numbers are astounding, posting the first-ever 50-150-20 season in baseball history. But unlike in years past when people accused him of hitting his homeruns when it was already 8-0 Yankees, this year, he's come up huge when it mattered most. For good measure, here's my top 5.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Magglio Ordonez
3. David Ortiz (led majors in walks, led AL in XBH, hit .332 with 35 homeruns)
4. Carlos Pena (46 HR, 121 RBI, 3rd in AL in OPS, who cares if he's on Tampa?)
5. Vladimir Guerrero (3rd in AL in RBI, hit .324, more walks than strikeouts)

National League
A significantly tougher choice to say the least, as there remain at least 5 deserving players for this award. All things being equal, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright could each stake legitimate claim to this award.

Fielder led the NL in homeruns (50), finished 2nd in OPS (1.013), and third in XBH (87) and RBI (119). Holliday won the batting title (.340), led the majors in XBH (91), finished 2nd in RBI (135), tied for 3rd in runs (119), and in OPS (1.011). Howard led the NL in RBI (136), finished 2nd in homeruns (47), and 4th in walks (107). Rollins led the league in runs (139), finished 2nd in XBH (88), 5th in steals (41) and hit 30 homeruns. And Wright finished 4th in hits (196) and OBP (.416), 5th in runs (113), 7th in average (.325), and like Rollins, went 30-30 (30-34 to be exact).

Before I proceed, I want to make a brief point. Unlike some voters, I personally don't think missing the playoffs should automatically disqualify someone from winning the NL MVP this year. Obviously some of the players on this list will be playing in October (Holliday perhaps, Howard, Rollins) while some will have come up just short (Fielder, Holliday perhaps, Wright). Clearly the guys who did help their teams get in have helped their MVP causes significantly, but just because Fielder and Wright's teams didn't make it, doesn't mean they didn't help their teams get as close as they did. That said, let's look a little deeper.

Fielder had a great September (.333, 11, 22), thrived close and late (.321, 6 HR), but didn't always deliver with men on (.270 with men in scoring position, .220 with 2 out and men in scoring position). Still his power numbers speak for themselves. Ironically, "Fielder" is not a good one. He led all big league first basemen in errors with 14.

Holliday also had a terrific September (.368, 12, 30), an even better final week of the season (.444, .545 OBP, 5 runs, 4 RBI), was good but not great close and late (.287, 7, 18), hit .330 with men in scoring position and .329 with the same situation but two outs.

Howard's September batting average wasn't spectacular (.260), but his other numbers were (11, 26, 25 walks, .413 OBP). And few hitters had a better final week of the season (.381, 5, 11, 1.575 OPS). Close and late, he reached base 42% of the time, even though he only hit .257. He was good with men in scoring position (.282, 18, 91), and excellent in the same situation with two outs (.377, 12, 52). Of his 47 homeruns, 30 came with men on base, although he did set a new single-season strikeout record (199) and fanned 104 times in 278 AB's with men on. And if it wasn't for Prince, Howard's 12 botches at first would have been a league-high.

Interestingly, Phillies fans were chanting M-V-P every time Rollins came to the plate yesterday, not Howard. But J-Roll's splits suggest the fans may have gotten it wrong. He hit .272 with men in scoring position, .239 with men in scoring position and 2 outs, and .255 close and late. He did have a great September (.298, 6, 18, 14 steals) and a really fine final week (.375, 7 runs, 4 steals). The bottom line is, he was the catalyst for the comeback kids and like Curtis Granderson went 20-20-20-20 in doubles, triples, homeruns, and steals. He actually went 38-20-30-41, while playing outstanding defense at short.

Finally, Wright owns the distinction of being the only 30-30 guy in the big leagues who also hit over .300, scored 100 runs, and drove in 100. He hit .352 in September, .400 the final week, and .364 in the second half. He hit .310 with men in scoring position (but just .200 in the same situation with 2 outs), and was a .346 hitter close and late. He will carry a 17-game hitting into the 2008 season and was also above average defensively at third in terms of range, fielding percentage, and double plays.

So where does that leave us, besides, with 5 really well-qualified candidates? Well, in my opinion, there is one guy who stands slightly above the rest of this terrific group, and that guy is Matt Holliday. Aside from being a very good defensive outfielder (7 assists, a .990 fielding percentage), he's hitting .456, 5, 15, with 15 runs during the Rockies' current 13-1 stretch. And for me, the fact that this guy won a batting title and led the majors in extra base hits really speaks to his offensive prowess.

Truthfully, you can't go wrong with any of these 5 guys in any order. With that said, here's my top 5.

1. Matt Holliday
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. David Wright
4. Prince Fielder
5. Ryan Howard

Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year still to come.

The Weekend's Over, What Have We Learned?

Besides the fact that Tom Brady and Randy Moss look like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, and besides the fact it appears Norv Turner has ruined yet another team, we learned quite a bit about baseball's nearly-over regular season.

First, after picking up his 20th Friday night, Josh Beckett probably locked up the Cy Young award, and also guaranteed the Sox a playoff appearance. They went 2-1 this weekend, as did New York, meaning they just might have righted the ship in time. As for Beckett, he'll likely be the majors' only 20-game winner. The fact that he's on a big-market team, could win 21, and his secondary numbers are good, spells trouble for the guy who deserves this award more- C.C. Sabathia.

Second, speaking of the Yankees, it's looking more and more likely that A-Rod will, in fact, make it to 150 RBI, meaning he's got a good chance at becoming the first ever "50-150-20" or "50-150-25" player. He has 4 RBI in the first 3 games of the series against the Jays, and now needs just 4 RBI and 1 steal in his last 7 to get there. There are also reports (although his agent denies them) that A-Rod will join the Cubs as a player/part owner next year. If he does go to the south side, let the record show, I called it back in February.

Third, not that it's any surprise, but Cleveland and LA also clinched this weekend. That's all. Ho hum. Right now Cleveland has a 0.5 game lead for best record in the AL and interestingly, no team will win 100 games this season (AL or NL). This happened last year too, so it's the first time we've seen back-to-back-no-100-game-winners since '91, '92.

In the NL, it looks like the Brew crew's days as playoff contenders are coming to a close. After losing 3 of 4 to Atlanta, they're 3.5 back now and taking on water. This also may cost Prince Fielder the MVP award. The Phillies couldn't make up any ground on the Mets, but they have pulled to within a half game of the Padres for the Wild Card. They did this, despite the fact that Ryan Howard needs just one more strikeout to set a new record of 196 in a season. It's funny that when you hit 40+ and drive in 120+, people don't seem to care.

And lastly, the Colorado Rockies, still remarkably alive in the Wild Card chase at 1.5 back, have set a new franchise record for wins with 84 (remarkably considering they've been to the playoffs once before). Wouldn't it be something if they crept in the back door after all the attention on the Mets, Phils, and Pads?

Stop The Presses!

Jayson Stark actually agrees with me on something!

Like I predicted two weeks ago, JS is now saying C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy should win the Cy Young awards in their respective divisions. This is unusual to say the least, considering our Stark differences of opinion on baseball's most overrated players.

Perhaps he's been reading the Baseblogg.

One Month Left

Some awards are in the bag as far as I'm concerned, while others might not be decided until the final week of the season. Either way, here are my favorites, thus far, for baseball's major awards.

MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.305, 44, 125, 20 steals)
Magglio Ordonez picked a bad year to have a great year because he deserves this award, there's no question about it. But when you consider the fact that A-Rod is first in the league in homeruns, runs, OPS, RBI, and slugging, plus he's on pace to become baseball's first-ever 50-150-20 guy, how can he not win this award? The Yankees playoff status should not factor into this decision.

MVP, NL - David Wright (.319, 24, 87, 30 steals)
Wright is one of about 7 guys who could legitimately win this honor right now. But here's why I'm leaning in his direction. If everything goes the way it should, he would finish around .320, with a 30-30 season, 100 runs, 100 RBI, an OBP of well over .400 and he's going to be the only guy in the NL to do that. However, if Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder power their teams into the playoffs with big Septembers, they'll probably win this award. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins could also get a lot of votes if they score a bunch of runs and get a bunch of hits this month. And let's not forget about the seasons Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are having. This one's going to be close, no question.

Cy Young, AL - C.C. Sabathia (15-7, 3.37 ERA, 176 K's)
This one may be even closer than NL MVP. And just like that award, this one will be decided by everyone's last 5 or 6 starts of the season. All things being equal, I still like Erik Bedard best, but he missed yesterday's start with a strained oblique muscle. Those things don't heal quickly, and the O's are awful, so he may be on a short leash the rest of the way home, which will hurt his chances significantly. Santana's numbers are good, but he hasn't been quite as dominant as he's been in years past. Haren's had a very average second half, and Lackey, Escobar, and Beckett's numbers have all been buoyed by their teams. That's why C.C.'s my man here. He's first in innings pitched, top-5 in wins, complete games, K's, and quality start percentage, and top-10 in ERA and winning percentage. A dependable, workhorse, ace on a playoff team...that's what being a Cy Young award winner is all about.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (15-5, 2.18, 197 K's)
As hard as the last two awards have been to choose, this one is just as easy. Peavy is in a class all by himself, and currently leads in all three of pitching's triple crown categories (wins, ERA, K's). For good measure, he's also number one in quality start percentage, 0.01 behind the leader in WHIP, and second in BAA. Congrats in advance, Jake.

ROY, AL - Dustin Pedroia (.321, 6, 42, 5 errors)
Most people thought a guy from Boston would win this award, but they didn't think he'd be an American second baseman. Pedroia is top-10 in the league (and first among rookies) in hitting, is a hell of a tough out (.392 OBP, 34 K's all year), and is one of the best fielding second basemen in all of baseball (.990 fielding percentage, 5 errors). There's not much that's not likable about this guy, and considering Alex Gordon's complete flop, Delmon Young's lack of production, and Dice-K's very average 13-11, 3.88 year, he's my guy. How much you want to bet Pedroia doesn't win, though because he's not a power hitter?

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.329, 25, 68, 13 steals)
He's not quite as much of a lock for his award as Jake Peavy is for Cy Young, but he's awfully close. Braun leads all rookies in hitting and OPS and he's second only to Chris B. Young in homeruns. If he gets there, a 30-30 season by Young will get a lot of attention, but his God-awful .234 batting average and even worse .287 OBP should cool voters off. The bottom line is, Braun should be able to have an okay September and still walk away with this award because he's a much more complete player than Young, at least right now.

Comeback Player Of The Year, AL - Carlos Pena (.274, 33, 92)
With all due respect to Jack Cust, the award is Pena's, hands-down. Between 2005 and 2006, he didn't get 300 at-bats total because he wasn't good enough to crack anybody's starting lineup. Now he's one of the most dangerous first basemen in the league. He'll have posted carer bests in every category by the end of the season and if it wasn't for A-Rod, he'd be leading the league in homeruns.

Comeback Player Of The Year, NL - Josh Hamilton (.278, 18, 43)
That Josh Hamilton is alive is an accomplishment in and of itself. Drug problems kept him off the field for a long time and it seemed like number one overall pick in 1999 was going to be a complete and utter waste of talent. But he's battled his way back from addiction and has enjoyed a very nice, if not injury-reduced season. Rick Ankiel should also get some votes here too.

Manager Of The Year, AL - Joe Torre
After all the Yanks have been through this season, and after their miserable start, the fact that Torre has this team atop the AL Wild Card race right now is an unbelievable accomplishment. He never pushed the panic button, and thankfully for New Yorkers, George Steinbrenner didn't either.

Manager Of The Year, NL - Tony LaRussa
No Chris Carpenter, an unproductive Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and an absolutely patch-work pitching staff should have been the recipe for a 70-92 season. But LaRussa has this team within a game of .500, and within 2 games of the NL Central lead. This is why he's a Hall of Famer.

Monthly Awards

MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.298, 35, 103, 11)
These are good numbers for a whole season (and not all that different from the .290, 35, 121, 15 he put up last year) and yet he has all of August and September to pad them. Nobody's even close to him right now, despite the fact that he's in a slump.

MVP, NL - Jimmy Rollins (.296, 20, 65, 19)
This race is really wide open. This award is no longer Jose Reyes' to lose because, statstically speaking, he's the third best shortstop in the NL behind J-Roll and Hanley Ramirez, even though they are on second and fourth place teams. Chase Utley was having an MVP year, but he's on the shelf. Miguel Cabrera and Matt Holliday are also having great years, but their teams will likely be out of the race very soon. Eric Byrnes is having a great year for a contender, but c'mon, Eric Byrnes for MVP? Prince Fielder is another good player on a good team, but his July production was poor (3 homeruns, 11 RBI). With a strong last two months, Ryan Howard could walk away with this one again. But I'm going with Rollins here because of his rare combination of power and speed, the fact that he's leading the league in runs, and he's third in extra base hits. Plus, who doesn't like it when a guy misses the All-Star team, but wins the MVP?

Cy Young, AL - Erik Bedard (10, 175, 3.05, 1.09)
I know I've touched on this before, but nobody has really had a better year than Bedard so far. He leads baseball in strikeouts, his ERA and WHIP are fantastic, and the O's have cost him a few wins. I don't think he will win this award because there are too many other talented guys out there (Haren, Santana, Beckett, Sabathia) but if he keeps it up, he should.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (10-5, 2.41 ERA, 144 K's)
Chances are, a Padre is going to win this award, it's just a question of whether it's Peavy or Chris Young. But I give the edge to Peavy here because he has more K's, he's pitched more innings, and unlike Young, he's healthy (even though Young's isn't an arm injury). Peavy is also second in the NL (to Young) in ERA, second in the NL in quality start percentage (Brad Penny's number one) sixth in batting average against, fourth in on base percentage against, and second in OPS against (Young is leading the league in all those categories). Here's why I'm not a huge Young fan. He's pitched more than 6 innings just 11 times in his 20 starts. Peavy's done it 14 times in 21 starts. Young averages just under 6 innings pitched per start. Peavy averages almost 6 2/3 per start. To me, part of a pitcher's value is his ability to go deep into games, give his bullpen a rest, and give his team a chance to win- something Peavy does much better than Young.

ROY, AL - Jeremy Guthrie (7-3, 2.89 ERA, 88 K's)
Easy Sox fans. Dice-K's been good, but Guthrie's been better. If you look at Guthrie's numbers since becoming a starter, then extrapolate them out over 22 starts, which is how many Mr. Matsuzaka has made this year, here's how they compare: Guthrie would be 8-4, with a 2.44 ERA, .204 BAA, and 102 K's, while Dice-K is 12-8, with a 3.75 ERA, .244 BAA, and 142 K's. Guthrie also holds runners on much better than his opponent here. Wow, an Oriole winning Cy Young, and ROY. Maybe the future isn't so bleak in B-More after all.

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.347, 18, 50, 10)
With Hunter Pence hurt, this is as easy as AL MVP. Braun's numbers were already better across the board before HP went down. Now the difference is even more glaring, and Braun still has fewer at-bats and he's a few months younger than Pence. Maybe David Wright doesn't have third base at the All-Star game locked down for the next 10 years after all.

First Half Awards

Yes, we're a little more than halfway home and more importantly, the finest All-Star festivities in all of pro sports are just days away, so I'd like to give out my first-half awards now if I may, with the understanding that I missed the "end of July" awards on purpose.

MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.319, 29, 82, 9)
You really can't go wrong here with A-Rod or Magglio Ordonez, but for me it was #13's stellar June, after a simply silly April that gets him my vote. He's on a pace to flirt with 60 homeruns and 160 RBI, while hitting over .300, and oh by the way, he might end up with 20 steals too. Ordonez may be the trendier pick here because the Tigers aren't 36 games out of first in their division, and he's hitting .370, but A-Rod's crushing him in every other category (including "I got it's").

MVP, NL - Prince Fielder (.282, 27, 66)
This is where I make no sense. Because with this pick, I am definitely going with the best player on a good, if-not-surprising team, over some arguably better players on non-contenders (i.e. Magglio over A-Rod). Yes, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, and Hanley Ramirez have had fantastic seasons. But if you look at what the Crown Prince of Fielder (CPOF) has done for the middle of the Milwaukee order, he is one of the main reasons they're so good. Let's put it this way, CPOF still has fewer than a thousand career AB's and he's already better than his daddy. By the way, remember when Jose Reyes was running away with this award, both literally and figuratively? His monthly steal totals have gone from 17 to 12 to 10 and his runs scored totals have nose-dived from 26 to 16 to 13. The scary part is, he may still steal 80 bags and score 120 times.

Cy Young, AL - Dan Haren (10-3, 2.30, 101 K)
There are certainly plenty of qualified applicants for this particular honor (Beckett, Sabathia, Lackey, Verlander, Santana) but Haren gets the award because even after two so-so starts, his ERA is still almost half the league average. Realistically, DH should have at least 13 wins at this point, which would make him come to mind as quickly as the other five guys, one of whom will likely get the nod to start the All-Star game, over the most deserving hurler.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19 ERA, 125 K)
Peavy's only real competition for this award comes on his own team, where Chris "Right Hook" Young and Trevor "Closing Time" Hoffman have had fine seasons. But Peavy's been better all year. Forget about the 4-straight 10+ K starts, he's had the dealer's vest on all season and after a sub-par 2006, he really looks like he's ready to be a year-in, year-out stud for the rest of this decade, and the early part of the next one too. He just turned 26 too.

ROY, AL - Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-5, 3.53 ERA, 119 K)
I've heard more than one person marvel at the fact that, despite all the hype surrounding Dice-K this spring, he's still managed to have a really good, under-the-radar season. And those people are right because if he puts together a July, August, and September that are somewhere between his April and June (and far from his May), he'll get a whole lot of votes for Cy Young too. In his last 6 starts, he's lowered his ERA by 1.30, he hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any given start, and he's recorded either 8 or 9 strikeouts. Granted that's been against Oakland, Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle and Tampa Bay, but it's still progress. The real test, in my opinion, will be in late August or early September when he starts to enter 210, 215, 220 innings pitched territory. Will he hold up? If he doesn't, Jeremy Guthrie, Reggie Willits or Delmon Young if he has a big second half could just swoop in and steal this award. Stay tuned.

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.342, 10, 31, 8)
Perhaps I'm a little biased because I have this guy on every one of my fantasy teams, but c'mon...he's sweet. He runs, he hits, he hits for power, and he has the CPOF protecting him, so what's not to like? At the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if he's in .310, 25, 80 territory with 20 steals. However if Braun falters or gets hurt, Hunter Pence will gladly walk away with the award. The reason I give the edge to Brawny here is because Pence's numbers are virtually identical, but he's had 100 more AB's, plus Pence's 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio may be cause for concern (Braun's is 3 to 1). It's really a shame the Brew Crew doesn't have any good, young players.

Manager Of The Year, AL - Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox
Ho hum, best record in baseball, an 11-game lead in the division, likely the team to beat in the postseason, and all without Manny, Papi, or Schilling contributing as significantly as the have in years past. Give him credit for sticking with Dustin Pedroia at second, after an awful April, and for turning Hideki Okajima into the best setup man in the game. It also wasn't a bad idea to keep Papelbon in the bullpen and relegate Joel Pineiro to mop-up duty.

Manager Of The Year, NL - Ned Yost, Milwaukee Brewers
Whatever he's selling, the Brewers are buying and he has a young, talented team clicking. They quietly have the best record in the National League and even after their recent surge, a comfortable lead over the Cubs. Moving Dave Bush back to the starting rotation seems to have worked, he's straightened out what was a nightmarish bullpen situation last year, and he's letting Corey Hart and Ryan Braun blossom. Well done.

LVP, AL - Jermaine Dye (.214, 12, 39)
Dye seems to be an appropriate name for a man who leads baseball's most anemic offense. Most people predicted he wouldn't repeat last year's career bests of 44 dingers and 120 RBI, but this year he's not even on pace to hit 25 or drive in 80. Plus his average is the third lowest in the American League, behind Julio Lugo and Nick Punto. Say it with me now...eeeeeew.

LVP, NL - Pat Burrell (.209, 10, 36)
I have a hard time believing the Phillies couldn't get better production out of "Joe Triple-A Outfielder" and do so at a fraction of the cost (Burrell's making $13.25M this season, tops on the team). Pat the Pop-Up has the second lowest batting average in the NL, he's tied for 30th in homeruns...among outfielders...and has fewer RBI than Ichiro, Jason Kubel, and Julio Lugo (who only has 56 hits all year!). Want an even crazier stat? Burrell has more walks (58) than strikeouts (57). I have no idea how given his lack of production, but there you go. Either way, he turns 31 in October, he's never hit .285 in a season, never topped 37 homeruns, and never driven in 120. Anybody know how he got the nickname "Pat the Bat" in the first place?

Two Month Awards

With nearly two months in the books, here are my picks, so far, for some of baseball's most (and least) coveted awards...

MVP, AL: Magglio Ordonez (.356, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 43 R)
This is a tough pick, considering what A-Rod's done so far. But consider this: Magglio is hitting about 50 points higher, leads the majors in RBI, and he's the reason the Tigers are good, plus A-Rod slowed down a lot in May. Also receiving votes: Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Vlad Guerrero.

MDP, AL: Michael Young (.239, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 28 R)
For a second straight month, a Texas Ranger wins this honor. The difference is, Young could have won this award after his miserable April too, whereas last month's winner, Mark Teixeira, is on fire. Also receiving votes: Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreu.

MVP, NL: Jose Reyes (.312, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 39 R, 28 SB)
JR takes it home for a second month and with good reason- he's still the table-setter on one of baseball's best teams, and now that Delgado and Wright are hitting, he's going to score more and more runs. He's also on pace to steal more bases than anyone else in about 15 years. Also receiving votes: JJ Hardy, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins (how about NL shortstops?).

MDP, NL: Garrett Atkins (.220, 3 HR, 19 RBI)
A year ago, he hit .329 and drove in 120. Now, he's hitting 100 points lower, and is on pace to drive in half as many runs. He tore it up after the All-Star Break last year though, so there's still hope. Also receiving votes: Alfonso Soriano, Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard, Andruw Jones.

Cy Young, AL: Dan Haren (5-2, 1.70 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)
In his 4 no decisions, Haren has an ERA of 2.42, 29 K and just 9 walks. Realistically, he should be 8-2 and if he was, he'd be leading the league in ERA, leading baseball in WHIP, and tied for the league lead in wins. Also receiving votes: John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana.

Cy Anora, AL: Mariano Rivera (1-3, 5.94 ERA, 3 Saves)
Some of this isn't his fault. The Yankees are bad, so he isn't getting many save opportunities. In fact, if it wasn't for May 3rd, where he saved both ends of a double header at Texas, Mo would still be sitting on that one save. His ERA this month is an even 2.00, and he has 10 K's with just one walk. The Yankees just need to give him the chance to be himself. Also receiving votes: Scott Kazmir, Curt Schilling.

CY Young, NL: Jake Peavy (7-1, 1.47 ERA, 85 K, 0.93 WHIP)
This one isn't even close. Peavy could also receive votes for MVP, he's been that good. He had four straight 10-K games, and if you take away his 4 earned over 5 1/3 April 19th, his ERA drops down to a silly 1.06. Much like Reyes, I feel like an injury is the only thing that's going to slow him down at this point. Also receiving votes: Oliver Perez, John Smoltz, Francisco Cordero.

Cy Anora, NL: Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 5.24 ERA, 1.49 WHIP)
Last month's winner is also this month's winner. Control problems (32 walks) and gopher balls (a league-leading 13 homers) have been Zambrano's biggest enemies so far. Also receiving votes: Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb, Aaron Harang.

ROY, AL: Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-2, 4.43 ERA, 64 K)
Four straight wins gives Dice-K the slight advantage over his fellow countryman out in the bullpen. There's no question he's been helped out by the Sox offense, but then again, they weren't asking him to be a number one or number two. Also receiving votes: Hideki Okajima, Joakim Soria, Elijah Dukes.

ROY, NL: Hunter Pence (.365, 4 HR, 18 RBI)
This race is still wide open, but thanks to a slowing-down Josh Hamilton, and a great first 100 AB's, Pence is my guy so far. Mark Reynolds may make things interesting as the season progresses, though. Also receiving votes: Josh Hamilton, Chris Young, Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Sampson.

Monthly Awards

April's in the books, so let's dole out some awards, because there have been some simply amazing, and simply miserable performances thus far. So without further ado...

MVP, AL: Alex Rodriguez (.355, 14 HR, 34 RBI, 27 Runs)
He has cooled off, (3 for his last 18) but that's only after being on absolute, white-hot, fire. This may be one of the best single months ever in big league history. To put it into perspective, he's on pace to hit 99 home runs, drive in 240, score 190 times, and of course hit over .350. That's after a month, not after a week. Also Receiving Votes: Ian Kinsler, BJ Upton, Vlad Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez

MDP (most disappointing), AL: Mark Teixeira (.231, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 14 Runs)
Another slow start for Tex, and his Tex-as Rangers for that matter. The 6 RBI is a hard total to imagine in that lineup, considering he had 91 AB's. What also concerns me is, at least last year when his power was slow to develop early in the year, at least he hit .293 in April. But he's a second-half player and has been his whole career, so just hang in there. Also Receiving Votes: Manny Ramirez, Michael Young (ouch Texas), Ichiro, Hideki Matsui

MVP, NL: Jose Reyes (.356, 26 Runs, 18 RBI, 17 SB)
Absolute superstar, who came into the season with enormous expectations and is somehow exceeding them. He already has a pair of 4-hit and three 3-hit games under his belt. And in that lineup, there's no reason to think his run, or steal totals should fall off. Oh by the way, he also has 9 doubles, 5 triples, and 2 home runs. He turns 24 in June and may be the best player in the game, under 25. Also Receiving Votes: Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera

MDP, NL: Alfonso Soriano (.270, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 9 Runs, 2 SB)
And you thought Teixeira was bad. April 14...7th inning...Cubs hosting the Reds...Soriano gets an infield hit...Cliff Floyd scores. Why is this significant? Because it was Soriano's only RBI in April! He has been a complete bust so far on a team that is full of them. I know a lot of people were predicting he'd flirt with 40/40 again, hitting in a better lineup, in a more hitter-friendly park. At this point, 30/30 seems like a stretch. Also Receiving Votes: Ryan Howard, David Wright, Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols

Cy Young, AL: Roy Halladay (4-0, 2.28 ERA, 33 K, 0.89 WHIP)
He's 6 for 6 in quality starts. He already has 2 complete games under his belt (including a 10 inning outing against Detroit) and he should be at least 5-0, possibly 6-0. Here's what worries me for the rest of the season. Halladay has always been a "great month guy." But injuries have derailed him more than once. He's only posted 200+ innings in back to back years one time in 8 full seasons, prior to 2007. And he threw 220 a year ago. Might be a good "sell high" guy right now. Also Receiving Votes: Josh Beckett, Dan Haren, John Lackey

Cy Anora, AL: Mariano Rivera (1-2, 10.57 ERA, 1 Save)
To put his awful April into perspective, Mo's already allowed 9 earned runs. Last season, he allowed 15, and didn't allow his 9th until June 17. Yes, the Yankees starting pitching has been atrocious, so he hasn't been afforded too many chances to close out games. But the few times he's actually had the chance, he's just 1 for 3. I have to think he'll get better, and so will New York. Also Receiving Votes: Erik Bedard, Ervin Santana, Kevin Milwood

Cy Young, NL: Tim Hudson (3-0, 1.40 ERA, 32 K's, 0.91 WHIP)
Wow. Huddy's been out of this world and easily, could be 6-0 at this point. So far, he has yet to pitch less than 7 innings in a start, and has allowed 1, 0 , 1 , 0, 3, and 2 earned runs. Occasionally, his control escapes him (4 walks in two separate starts so far). But his 12-strikeout, 0-walk, no decision, is proof he's for real this season. Also Receiving Votes: John Maine, Jake Peavy, Rich Hill

Cy Anora, NL: Carlos Zambrano (2-2, 5.77 ERA, 25 K's, 1.63 WHIP)
He has just one quality start in 6 tries, almost completely due to his control issues and affinity for the gopher-ball. He's allowed 19 walks and 8 home runs in 34 innings (and is on pace to issue more than 100 free passes, and give up more than 50 long balls). Maybe he and Alfonso Soriano should get together and see if they can't straighten each other out, because Soriano never walks, and has inexplicably lost his power stroke. Poor Lou Piniella. Also Receiving Votes: Chris Young, Dontrelle Willis (who somehow has 5 wins!)