WE'LL NEVER KNOW THE TRUTH

Unless someone other than Brian McNamee comes forward with something significant, we'll never know who is telling the truth about Roger Clemens and steroids.

You have the accused whose alleged steroid and PED use is not impossible to believe, given among other things (a) his late-career success, (b) Andy Pettitte's admission that he (Clemens) discussed using PEDs with him (Pettitte) when they were teammates, (c) the fact that his own wife admitted to using HGH injected by McNamee, and (d) may have tampered with a witness (his former Nanny) prior to her meeting with Congress regarding his absence or presence at a party thrown by admitted steroid-user Jose Canseco.

Conversely, you have an accuser who is (a) a pathological liar, (b) an admitted drug-dealer and (c) in possession of little more than his own version of what happened along with so-called "forensic evidence" that is years old and would hold absolutely no legal clout due to chain of custody issues.

After watching the bulk of this 4 hour 40 minute hearing today, I went back and forth several times as to who I believed before reaching the conclusion, impossible as it is given their diametrically-opposed testimony, that I don't believe either one of them.

In my opinion, Clemens rambled too much, used the crutch word "again..." in nearly every single one of his responses, and was unable to provide cogent answers to tough questions, while McNamee came across as a smug, sniveling, street-smart, conman.

I am sure there will be pressure for some sort of follow-up, whether it's more questioning for Andy Pettitte (who Congressman Elijah Cummings said is the only person he believes in all this), a Department of Justice investigation, or perjury charges. But as for proving Clemens' guilt or innocence today, I don't think either happened.

For the record, Jayson Stark has an incredibly-detailed and at times, quite humorous blog about all this. It's definitely worth a read.

The Rocket's Red Scare

If this is true, if Roger Clemens talked with Andy Pettitte about his own HGH-use in the late-90s, then the Rocket might be grounded for good. Pettitte has been excused from testifying today on Capitol Hill, but it's what's in his affidavit that could put his former teammate into "Barry Bonds territory"- accused of lying to the feds about performance-enhancing drugs and potentially facing jail time.

As Howard Bryant writes, somebody or several somebodies will come out of today's hearings looking awfully bad. It's either going to be Clemens...or McNamee and George Mitchell (Mitchell isn't actually testifying, but Charlie Scheeler, one of the investigators who worked on the Mitchell Report, is). There's no way all three men will escape unscathed because all three have taken such vehement and opposing positions. Either Clemens will emerge in Duke lacrosse player fashion as the victim of unthinkably false allegations and McNamee will look like scum and Mitchell will look like an incompetent dope...or the exact opposite will happen.

Stay tuned. The hearings are scheduled to begin at 10 o'clock...ironically, in the same room as the 2005 hearings featuring a finger-wagging Rafael Palmeiro, a suddenly-non-English-speaking Sammy Sosa, and a not-here-to-talk-about-the-past Mark McGwire.

Remember When These Guys Just Made Baseball News?

In the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee saga, we now know this much. Somebody is lying to the federal government. Clemens continues to deny any and all wrongdoing, while McNamee has produced pictures of what he claims is physical evidence that the Rocket used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens and legal experts have questioned the so-called "chain of custody" of this evidence, and how, even if the DNA tests link Clemens to this stuff, there's no way to prove it hasn't been tampered with in the years it's been sitting in McNamee's basement. Wednesday's televised testimony with these guys should be interesting.

Regarding the whole Pedro Martinez cockfighting thing, people will try to compare this to Michael Vick, and those people are flat wrong. Vick broke the law. Martinez did not. Vick was in the US. Martinez was in the Dominican. Millions of people have dogs as pets. Very few have gamecocks as pets. Very few people eat dog meat. Most people eat some type of bird meat. I can see how on the heels of Vick, the Mets probably aren't thrilled that video of Pedro at a cockfight surfaced on the web. That's not exactly the kind of PR you want to have right after trading for the best pitcher on the planet. And I'll be the first to say I don't get what's so thrilling about watching birds with razors on their beaks and talons peck each other to death. It seems kind of barbaric. But it's just not the same thing as dogfighting- not even close. In fact, it's so much different that it's not worth mentioning any further.

And finally, I'll say this about Curt Schilling and Shouldergate. Even if he doesn't throw a pitch in 2008, the Sox will still have the best pitching staff in their division with Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield. No other team is close (sorry Yankee fans). They might miss Schilling in October, though. In 19 career starts, he's 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 120 K's. That will be hard to replace. But if the bloody sock is any indicator of this guy's guts, he'll be back on the field as soon as he's able.

I'm Back, And Baseball Needs To Be Soon

Sorry I haven't posted in a while. No good excuse other than the holidays and a busy work schedule.

Anyhoo...I must say, after the Steroid Report To End All Steroid Reports came out, I felt like I didn't really know what my opinion was, so I didn't want to write anything about it until the dust had settled somewhat and until I had some time to reflect. So now that a month has passed, here's my assessment, for what it's worth.

First, I guess my main problem with the SRTEASR is that it is merely a snapshot of the problem. George Mitchell openly admits that players weren't at all helpful during this and that the players mentioned were the only ones he felt confident "outing." Plus, as several ESPN Radio talk show hosts pointed out, if Kirk Radomski hadn't landed squarely in Mitchel's lap, the SRTEASR would have been a leaflet rather than a 400-page novel. So my question is, how is it fair to guys like Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts that there are likely hundreds of other players out there who are just as guilty, or perhaps even more guilty (i.e. juiced for longer stretches of time), but somehow get a pass because they weren't associated with Radomski or Brian McNamee?

Second, I still find myself dealing with somewhat of a moral dilemma when it comes to the similarities (and differences) between Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Allegations aside, they are hands-down the two best players in the last 20 years, having padded already remarkable stats significantly in their late 30s and early 40s. Allegations aside, these are also two of the greatest players ever. Allegations aside, if you were to make a team of the best statistical performers of all time, you'd better believe these two are on the roster. But now, there are allegations and the slam-dunk-first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame-credentials of these two men are being scrutinized. I wondered why I wasn't instantly feeling the same animosity towards Clemens that I often do with Bonds. I thought Jayson Stark's article about these two was a total bull's eye, but after seeing Clemens on 60 Minutes, and seeing his press conference with the taped phone call with McNamee, I still wasn't as convinced of his innocence as I would have liked, and I hate that. Clearly there is much more evidence linking Bonds to PEDs as compared to Clemens, but I think Mike Wallace's question hits home- "what did McNamee gain by lying?" I know this much. You can't lie to the federal government. You can lie to yourself, to fans, to the media, and to George Mitchell. But you can't lie to the federal government. If you do, they're going to get you. I think it will be very interesting to see what Clemens says when he meets with lawmakers next month and if he adamantly maintains his innocence then, it could help his case significantly. But if he goes all "Mark McGwire" on them, it will do the exact opposite.

And third, I wonder if the general frustration I feel towards the whole steroids scandal is something a lot of baseball fans feel. I kind of miss the days when I'd click on ESPN.com's MLB link and the top stories were about offseason moves, not about who's saying what about which former or current player and whether that former or current player is admitting or denying it. I'm sick of it. And it's not going to go away any time soon, until all the players implicated in this thing are done playing.

But now that Erik Bedard may be headed to Seattle, and now that the Twins may still deal Johan Santana, perhaps we can get back to what's good about baseball, and away from what's so wrong with it.

Still Waiting For Blast Off

The New York Yankees are 44-35 since announcing back on May 6 that Roger Clemens was returning to the Bronx. But OMFQ has had virtually nothing to do with their success, mainly because he's been so incredibly average and unremarkable.

After last night's outing (where he only retired 5 batters) Clemens is now 3-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He has 6 quality starts in 12 tries, and with the exception of back-to-back 8 inning, one run performances, he's been incredibly inconsistent.

Clemens turns 45 on Sunday, and still has another 10 to 12 starts to go, meaning he's about halfway finished with his abbreviated 2007 season. You'd better believe that with the Yanks 8 out in the East and 3 out in the Wild Card, they're going to want more than 6 quality starts from him down the stretch, especially at a million bucks a pop.

We Have Lift Off

OMFQ (you may know him better as Roger Clemens) will debut for New York this afternoon. The Yankees have won 4 in a row, but they are 3 games below .500 (28-31) and currently sit 10.5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East, and 5.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers for the Wild Card.

What's interesting is that since Clemens announced his intentions back on May 6th, the Yanks have lost ground in their playoff hunt (during a stretch that I called critical). On May 6th, they were 14-15, 5.5 games back of Boston and 4.5 games back of Detroit. So in the 30 games they've played, preparing for Clemens' arrival, they've gone an uninspired 14-16 (and that's with their current 4 game winning streak remember, they were 10-16). Interestingly, in that same stretch, the Sox are 19-11 and the Tigers are 15-15.

So all of that said, here are a few bold predictions. First, Clemens will defeat Paul Maholm and the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates, in Yankee stadium this afternoon. Second, at least one Yankee fan will try to buy playoff tickets immediately after the game. Third, the Yankees will not catch the Red Sox in the AL East. Boston has the best record in baseball, probably has the best pitching in baseball, and has one of, if not the best lineup in baseball. Their lead is too big, too late in the season (there are just 102 games left, and the Yanks and Sox only play each other 6 more times). Fourth, and here's where I go out on a proverbial limb, the Yankees will make a serious run at the Wild Card, and may even get it. Detroit is headed south, and fast. Their bullpen is in shambles (Zumaya and Rodney are hurt, Mesa's gone, Jones has imploded a few times), their starting pitching is not nearly as strong as the Yankees will be with Clemens, and Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield are over-performing. Both sluggers are due to come back to Earth, and soon (as A-Rod has since his silly April). All that, combined with the fact that the two teams play each other 8 times in the second half, will make for a very competitive Wild Card chase down the stretch. And don't count out Oakland or Minnesota either. The A's have allowed the fewest runs in the American League, and they're a notorious second-half team, while Santana and the Twins are also second-half studs, and they're starting to get healthy.

Yes folks, things are about the get interesting, starting this afternoon, at 1:05 in the Bronx.

A (Farns)Worthy Teammate?

Yankees set-up man Kyle Farnsworth thinks Roger Clemens should be with the team all the time, even though his contract says he doesn't have to be there if he's not pitching. He's not the first person to criticize that part of the Clemens deal either. I was having this discussion the other night and I really couldn't think of another sport where the notion of "show up sometimes" would be acceptable. But then again, in no other sport can someone participate in 20% of his team's games (35 starts in 162 games) and be considered an invaluable part of his organization (I also realize Clemens won't make anywhere close to 35 starts, it will be more like 20-25, or 12-15% of Yankee games in 2007).

My opinion from the start has always been, if the Yankees will let him do it, why would he say no? The Yanks (9.5 games back with 123 to go) need him a lot more than he needs them. But I wonder how it plays out in the New York media if The Rocket is average, and still doesn't go on road trips if he's not pitching? He's earning a million bucks a start. Fans don't want 3 earned over 6 and a no-decision. Let's not forget, Clemens was God in Houston. The home-town boy could do no wrong. But I guess if he leaves with a lead and Farnsworth blows it, Yankee fans will be able to blame somebody else.

Also, apologies for recent lack of posts. Please enjoy this photo of Jessica Alba as compensation.

Nicknames

Baseball is, and has been full of them for years. From "The Bambino" to "Hammerin' Hank" to "The Say Hey Kid" to "Big Mac" and "The Iron Man," everyone has a favorite. So do I...as of tonight.

Watching Yankees highlights with my wife, who is not one to mince words, the topic quickly switched from Matt DeSalvo's impressive debut (he's the 10th Yankee starter in 30 games, a new record) to Roger Clemens. She wondered which new pitcher would get the ax to make room for Clemens, once he's ready to join the team. But she did not refer to him as "Clemens," or "The Rocket," or by any other name you or I have ever used, or thought of. No, she called him "Old-Man-Fake-Quitter," singlehandedly doling out the most fantastic nickname the game has ever known.

Amanda, thank you.

By the way, OMFQ (that's how I'll be referring to Clemens from now on) is already getting some criticism for not traveling with the team on road games. David Wells (the more outspoken of the two) and Greg Maddux say they wouldn't ever want a clause that says that.

A Bronx Bombshell

The Rocket is heading back to New York, much to the chagrin of Red Sox (and probably Astros fans).

Here's what I find interesting. It's May 6, the Yankees are 5 1/2 games back of the Red Sox, with more than 130 left to go. There's no way New York's starting rotation will be : Wang, Mussina, Clemens, Pettitte, and Igawa/Hughes when they host Boston, May 21-23. But they might have all the pieces in place for the series June 1-3 in Boston. Hughes' hamstring injury isn't as bad as they thought, and Clemens already says he's in pretty good shape. After that series, the two teams don't play again until the second half of the season, when they hook up just 6 more times (3 in New York and 3 in Boston).

This really makes the month of May critical for New York. So far, they've won 5 of 6, after going 9-14 in April. If they can keep Boston within striking distance, the games in June and in the second half could determine the division winner. But if they go into another funk, or suffer more pitching staff injuries, Clemens will earn $4.5 million dollars a month to help the Yankees play out the schedule in September. Either way, it looks like George Steinbrenner isn't going down without a fight.

Cy Old

I have to laugh because that's what Scott Hatteberg once called Roger Clemens when he (Clemens) was starting a game against Barry Zito, the year after Zito won the award.

Asked himself about the Clemens vs. Zito, "Cy Old vs. Cy Young" match-up, Zito said, "I wouldn't say Cy Old because I won't want to show any disrespect to Roger."

Nice.

Zito went on to pitch 8 shutout innings in Yankee Stadium, and Oakland won 2-0. Todd Zeile went 0-4 at third base for the Bronx Bombers, and who doesn't love a good Todd Zeile story?

That loss, May 4 of 2003 is one of 178 The Rocket has suffered in his 23-year-career. Oh by the way, he's been on the winning end 348 times, good for 8th all time. His 4,604 strikeouts are second-only to Nolan Ryan. And "Cy Old" has 7 "Cy Young" awards, easily the most ever.

It's a sad commentary on the state of big league pitching when a 44-year-old is the most coveted free agent arm on the off-season market (with all respect to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Zito, and Jason Schmidt). But he's definitely worthy of it because D-Mat has never recorded an out in a big league game, Zito has that "great but not stud" label, and Schmidt has a history of injuries. Plus there's the fact that Roger Clemens has been basically the same pitcher in the 80's, 90's, and 00's.

1980's.....95-45, 3.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.51K/9
1990's...152-89, 3.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.68K/9
2000's...101-44, 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.55K/9

So should he return for 2007? Why not. His last three seasons have been some of the best of his career. As an Astro since 2004, he's been 38-18, with a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 8.43K/9 in two-and-a-half seasons, so it's not like he's lost anything.

But if he comes back, where should he go? Well, he hasn't traded in his Houston duds just yet, and the Yankees and Rangers are also in the hunt. My guess is, if he comes back at all, it will be as an Astro (because of the familiarity factor, and because they'll be a contender in the NL Central), or as a Yankee (because of the Andy Pettitte factor, because they'll be a contender in the AL East, and maybe because of this).

I'm not sure if I would come back if I was in The Rocket's Reeboks, but then again, I never had his stuff.