Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

Teixeira?  Jeter?  A-Rod?  Sabathia?  Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez.  Once he returned to action, they went 90-44.  So was he the engine that powered their lineup?  Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage).  At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats.  True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415.  During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs.  And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either.  Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break.  But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby.  They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away.  So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month.  But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex.  Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914.  Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up.  They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining.  A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too.  My vote goes to Teixeira.

C.C. And Richie Rich

With the trade deadline still 22 days away, we've already seen two potentially race-changing deals involving two potential Game 1 World Series starters...C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Matt LaPorta and 3 other prospects, and Rich Harden to the Cubs along with reliever Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher and 3 other prospects.

The Cubs were the better team before these deals were completed and because they made a better trade than Milwaukee did, should be the better team the rest of the season (and next year).

Yes, Harden carries an injury risk. But ever since missing a month with a strained shoulder muscle, he's been healthy, he's been as good as anybody, and in general his ceiling is much higher than Sabathia's. True, Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young award winner and true, he is a workhorse, but all things being equal, Harden has Santana-esque stuff without Santana-esque mileage on his arm, whereas Sabathia is "7 innings pitched, 3 earned, 7 K's, 2 walks" good.

Another reason the Cubs made the better trade is because, unlike Sabathia, they're not renting Harden for the next 2 and a half months. Harden's deal doesn't expire until 2009 and being the bigger-market team, the Cubs have a much better chance of re-upping with him than the Brew-Crew does with Sabathia.

And the final reason the Cubs made out better is because unlike Milwaukee, they didn't give up any front-line prospects to make their move. Matt LaPorta could be a poor man's Ryan Braun, and soon. Add him to Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, and Cleveland's lineup could be in pretty good shape for the forseeable future. The Cubs gave up Gallagher, speedster Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson- none of whom were big pieces of the Chicago puzzle this year, although Gallagher has the best pedigree.

That's not to say that the A's got a bunch of chumps, though. In Gallagher, they get a strikeout-an-inning guy who will likely benefit from his move to the pitcher-friendly Bay Area. Patterson may take over for Mark Ellis in a year or so, Murton gives them a strong arm and bat to play alongside youngsters Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez in the Oakland outfield, and Donaldson is still a few years away.

Say what you will about "Moneyball" and Billy Beane. But as an A's fan, I definitely don't hate this trade. Beane has a knack for getting rid of good pitchers at just the right time. For proof, see Mulder, Mark...Hudson, Tim...and Zito, Barry. He got good value for each of those guys, as he did for Dan Haren last winter. Now, he sells Harden when he's healthy and his value is at its highest and although he didn't get a blue-chip prospect, he did get four serviceable players in return.

What'll be really interesting to see now is (a) if Oakland moves any other players (Huston Street?, Joe Blanton?) and (b) if St. Louis makes any moves in the next 3 weeks to keep up with the Joneses in the division. After all, they're just 3.5 back (a half game up on the Brewers) and starting to get their pitchers healthy.

One final thought. What's going through your head if you're a hitter on the lowly Reds, Pirates, or Astros right now?

To All The Sox Fans C.C.ing Red Right Now...

Yes, your boy Josh Beckett lost out in the Cy Young voting to a guy he beat twice in the ALCS and he did so by a surprisingly large margin. But let's not forget you just won your second World Series title in 4 years, swept the hottest team in postseason history, had the AL Rookie of the Year and two more of your rookies get votes in the category, and your arch-rival just lost their best player to free agency.

Things could be worse. You could be any other team in baseball.

Can He Still C.C. The Strike Zone?

C.C. Sabathia walked 36 hitters unintentionally in 241 innings pitched in his 34 regular season starts this year. In other words, he recorded an average of 19.5 outs between every walk.

In his 2 playoff starts, he has walked 9 hitters unintentionally in 9 1/3 innings pitched. In other words, he is recording an average of 3.1 outs between every postseason walk.

Sabathia says he wasn't himself last night in Cleveland's 10-3 Game 1 ALCS loss. He walked 5 (1 intentionally) and gave up 8 earned in 4 1/3.

"I was shaking off pitches and not doing things and not being aggressive and not challenging guys and trying to be too much of a finesse pitcher," said the 6'7'' 290 pound lefty who throws in the high-90s.

Right now, his next chance to be aggressive will be 5 days from now, in Game 5. But if the Indians can't figure out how to retire David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez (they combined to reach base all 10 times they were up, including a double, 3 singles, 5 walks, and a hit-by-pitch in Game 1), the Tribe might not be around that long.

It's Hardware Time, Part 2: Cy Young

American League

There are 5 legitimate candidates for this award and they're all on playoff teams...Josh Beckett, Fausto Carmona, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and C.C. Sabathia. They finished 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in wins. And they finished 6th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, and 5th in ERA. But for me, the numbers behind the numbers help separate this 5-pack of aces.

Yes, Beckett was the only 20-game winner in baseball, he plays for a big market team, and finished top-10 in strikeouts and ERA. This is usually a sure-fire formula for the award, but this year, I really do think at least one pitcher had a better year.

Consider this. Five of Beckett's 20 wins came in the following outings:

April 4 - 5 IP, 1 ER at Kansas City
April 21 - 6.2 IP, 4 ER against New York
July 5 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Tampa Bay
July 20 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Chicago
August 24 - 5.2 IP, 3 ER at Chicago

Now I realize he had a few tough losses/no decisions along the way (I count 3 to be exact) but for the most part, when he pitched moderately well, he won, and when he didn't, he lost. His win total was also buoyed by a run support (6.59) that was 4th best in the AL, and second highest among non-Yankee starters. In other words, he probably shouldn't have won 20 games, which means we shouldn't be distracted by that statistic. And I've long been a believer that "wins" does not measure a pitcher's Cy Young qualifications nearly as well as quality start percentage, opponents batting average against, innings pitched, WHIP, and strikeouts. So with the field leveled, let's look at those other numbers.

Beckett and Sabathia were the top dogs of the 5 in WHIP (1.14). Carmona and Lackey's were slightly higher (1.21), and Escobar was last in the group at 1.27. Sabathia also led the group in strikeouts, notching 209 to Beckett's 194, Lackey's 179, Escobar's 160, and Carmona's 137. On top of that, he led baseball with 241 innings pitched. Lackey's the only other one in the group to top 220. Beckett had the lowest batting average against but not by much. He held hitters to a .245 clip, compared to .248 for Escobar and Carmona, .254 for Lackey, and .259 for Sabathia. And in terms of quality starts, Carmona (81%), edges his teammate (74%). Lackey (73%), along with Escobar and Beckett (67%) round out the top 5.

Back to Sabathia now. Whereas Beckett won a few questionable outings, Sabathia failed to win each of these outings:

April 20 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
June 10 - 9 IP, 0 ER at Cincinnati
June 24 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Boston
June 29 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Minnesota
August 8 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Chicago
August 14 - 7 IP, 2 ER versus Detroit
August 19 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
August 24 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Kansas City

Like Beckett, he also won a few he probably shouldn't have (I count 4). But balancing that out with the 8 starts above that he didn't win leads you to the conclusion that he easily could have won 22 or 23 this season with secondary numbers superior to Beckett's. That is why he should win the award. But I bet the voters get this one wrong. For further proof, I submit to you the average 2007 start for each of the 5 guys in the running:

Beckett - 6.7 IP, 6.3 H, 2.4 ER, 1.3 BB, 6.5 Ks
Carmona - 6.7 IP, 6.2 H, 2.3 ER, 1.9 BB, 4.3 K's
Escobar - 6.5 IP, 6.1 H, 2.5 ER, 2.2 BB, 5.3 K's
Lackey - 6.8 IP, 6.6 H, 2.3 ER, 1.6 BB, 5.4 K's
Sabathia - 7.1 IP, 7.0 H, 2.5 ER, 1.1 BB, 6.1 K's

Here's my top 5.

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Kelvim Escobar

National League
This one's easy. Even with Jake Peavy's disappointing performance last night against the Rockies, he still led the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP, while finishing 2nd in winning percentage, and 4th in innings pitched.

Brandon Webb was the Magglio Ordonez of NL pitchers. He picked a bad year to have a great year, going 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA, and 194 K's and was the only pitcher to throw more innings than Peavy (236.1). He finished second in the league in wins and ERA, 4th in K's, 7th in WHIP, and actually led the NL in complete games (4).

But unfortunately for BW, it doesn't matter that Peavy and the Pads are left to watch October baseball at home. His was the superior year.

Here's my top 5.

1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Smoltz (3.11 ERA, 197 K's, 1.18 WHIP)
4. Cole Hamels (3.39 ERA, 177 K's, 1.12 WHIP, opponents hit .205 in second half)
5. Brad Penny (3.03 ERA, 79% of starts were quality, went 16-4)