American LeagueThere are 5 legitimate candidates for this award and they're all on playoff teams...Josh Beckett, Fausto Carmona, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and C.C. Sabathia. They finished 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in wins. And they finished 6th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, and 5th in ERA. But for me, the numbers behind the numbers help separate this 5-pack of aces.
Yes, Beckett was the only 20-game winner in baseball, he plays for a big market team, and finished top-10 in strikeouts and ERA. This is usually a sure-fire formula for the award, but this year, I really do think at least one pitcher had a better year.
Consider this. Five of Beckett's 20 wins came in the following outings:
April 4 - 5 IP, 1 ER at Kansas City
April 21 - 6.2 IP, 4 ER against New York
July 5 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Tampa Bay
July 20 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Chicago
August 24 - 5.2 IP, 3 ER at Chicago
Now I realize he had a few tough losses/no decisions along the way (I count 3 to be exact) but for the most part, when he pitched moderately well, he won, and when he didn't, he lost. His win total was also buoyed by a run support (6.59) that was 4th best in the AL, and second highest among non-Yankee starters. In other words, he probably shouldn't have won 20 games, which means we shouldn't be distracted by that statistic. And I've long been a believer that "wins" does not measure a pitcher's Cy Young qualifications nearly as well as quality start percentage, opponents batting average against, innings pitched, WHIP, and strikeouts. So with the field leveled, let's look at those other numbers.
Beckett and Sabathia were the top dogs of the 5 in WHIP (1.14). Carmona and Lackey's were slightly higher (1.21), and Escobar was last in the group at 1.27. Sabathia also led the group in strikeouts, notching 209 to Beckett's 194, Lackey's 179, Escobar's 160, and Carmona's 137. On top of that, he led baseball with 241 innings pitched. Lackey's the only other one in the group to top 220. Beckett had the lowest batting average against but not by much. He held hitters to a .245 clip, compared to .248 for Escobar and Carmona, .254 for Lackey, and .259 for Sabathia. And in terms of quality starts, Carmona (81%), edges his teammate (74%). Lackey (73%), along with Escobar and Beckett (67%) round out the top 5.
Back to Sabathia now. Whereas Beckett won a few questionable outings, Sabathia failed to win each of these outings:
April 20 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
June 10 - 9 IP, 0 ER at Cincinnati
June 24 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Boston
June 29 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Minnesota
August 8 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Chicago
August 14 - 7 IP, 2 ER versus Detroit
August 19 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
August 24 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Kansas City
Like Beckett, he also won a few he probably shouldn't have (I count 4). But balancing that out with the 8 starts above that he didn't win leads you to the conclusion that he easily could have won 22 or 23 this season with secondary numbers superior to Beckett's. That is why he should win the award. But I bet the voters get this one wrong. For further proof, I submit to you the average 2007 start for each of the 5 guys in the running:
Beckett - 6.7 IP, 6.3 H, 2.4 ER, 1.3 BB, 6.5 Ks
Carmona - 6.7 IP, 6.2 H, 2.3 ER, 1.9 BB, 4.3 K's
Escobar - 6.5 IP, 6.1 H, 2.5 ER, 2.2 BB, 5.3 K's
Lackey - 6.8 IP, 6.6 H, 2.3 ER, 1.6 BB, 5.4 K's
Sabathia - 7.1 IP, 7.0 H, 2.5 ER, 1.1 BB, 6.1 K's
Here's my top 5.
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Kelvim Escobar
National LeagueThis one's easy. Even with Jake Peavy's disappointing performance last night against the Rockies, he still led the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP, while finishing 2nd in winning percentage, and 4th in innings pitched.
Brandon Webb was the Magglio Ordonez of NL pitchers. He picked a bad year to have a great year, going 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA, and 194 K's and was the only pitcher to throw more innings than Peavy (236.1). He finished second in the league in wins and ERA, 4th in K's, 7th in WHIP, and actually led the NL in complete games (4).
But unfortunately for BW, it doesn't matter that Peavy and the Pads are left to watch October baseball at home. His was the superior year.
Here's my top 5.
1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Smoltz (3.11 ERA, 197 K's, 1.18 WHIP)
4. Cole Hamels (3.39 ERA, 177 K's, 1.12 WHIP, opponents hit .205 in second half)
5. Brad Penny (3.03 ERA, 79% of starts were quality, went 16-4)
5 comments:
Possibly the best part about being a passionate baseball fan is how one can manipulate statistics to prove just about any point. The one thing that I agree with is that there are 4 deserving pitchers in the AL (I don't think Escobar is there, although he had a great season).
In the best comparison that you made (your average stat comparison), Beckett strikes out more and gives up less hits and less earned runs, yet you hold run support and a stronger bullpen against him. The fact of the matter is that there were many circumstances when Beckett didn't need to go deep into games. There were stiuations where he didn't feel the pressure to get a key strikeout because he was protecting a 3 or 4 run lead instead of a 1 run lead. But when the Red Sox needed him most, in September when it became clear that his team needed a stopper, he came up big, going 4-1 and giving up only 7 runs in those four wins. One key win was against the mighty Yankees hitting machine, where he bested Cy Young wannabe Wang and gave up just 3 hits over 7 innings.
Add to that the fact that 20 game winners seem to be extremely rare and the value of that feat should be increased and not diminished.
Also, you fail to make mention of the fact that teammates always hurt each other in the voting. McGuire hurt Canseco in 88 (Canseco still won, but Greenwell shouldn't have even been close), Manny has hurt Ortiz over the last couple years and it will hurt the Indians' hurlers and the Phillies Rollins and Howard in the NL.
And finally, I think it is great to see that your immaginary blog world is being manipulated by your gambling habit. You know very well that the Sox are winning the whole thing, yet you force yourself to pick against them, even when you don't want to. That is the way to stay true to your bet. The payout will certainly be fun!
Mister Manny...you mention Beckett's September splits but fail to mention Sabathia's. C.C. was 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 33 K's...easily his finest month of the season and better than Beckett's 4-1/3.18/36.
Let's also not forget that Sabathia beat reigning Cy Young winner Johan Santana not once, not twice, but thrice in a one month span down the stretch (August 3 at Minnesota, August 29 at home, September 3at Minnesota).
Nice try, though.
i am not saying CC isnt worthy, but i think beckett is still the top pick. just because he pitched less innings for a better team with a better bullpen isnt his fault. i dont think IP is an especially good indicator of Cy Youngness.
I do think whip, Ks and BAA are the best. and beckett struck out more batter per inning and hitters hit worse off of him, but i do think they are very even.
but i think you flip flopped on the W/L's. either ignore them all together or dont. You discounted Becketts wins and claim some shouldnt have counted and CC should have had more wins, all while saying you dont think wins is a good indicator. But then that is the reason your picked CC.
so if wins are involved, beckett wins. if they arent, they are even.
My last point is that stats and awards arent about what could of or should have happened. It is about what did happen, and beckett pitched as effective (if not more) and won more games.
i thought of one other thing:
i was thinking about the game logs that you posted and its perfectly logical-
beckett pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs, and gets the win and you are saying that is 'shouldnt' have been a W. well the reason he came out is because tehy were winning and have a capable bullpen. meanwhile, CC pitched 6 innings, gave up 2 runs, but the indians were losing. so they didnt bring in the bullpen. they let him throw 110 pitches and work into the 8. thats how managers manage. it doesnt mean beckett came out after 6 becasue he wasnt effective anymore.
basically, it makes sense that CC stayed in those games he "should have won" longer while beckett came out early in the games he did win. i dont think this is a good indicated of cy young-ness.
i think the average start stat shows all you need to know if you are ignoring wins. they were nearly identical. its splitting hairs at this point, and based only on stats other than Wins (just those listed in the average start section) its a toss up with beckett slightly ahead (in my opinion)
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