It's Hardware Time, Part 1: MVP

While the regular season was still going on, I gave my picks for baseball's biggest awards at the end of each month (except for July, when I did it at the end of the first half). But now that the season is over and because a few races are, in my opinion, incredibly tight, I am going to devote a little more time and a few more words to each, by splitting them up into individual posts.

With that said, let's start with MVP.

American League
This is really a two-man race, although Yankee fans would disagree. But the reality is, Magglio Ordonez's season was simply too good to dismiss. First, let's look at their basic numbers. Maggs led the majors with a .363 batting average and 54 doubles. On top of that, he drove in 139 (2nd in the AL) and enjoyed a .439 OBP (also 2nd in the AL). You can add to that 117 runs, 28 homeruns, and three more strikeouts (79) than walks (76). Alex Rodriguez on the other hand led the majors in homeruns (54), RBI (156), runs (143), slugging (.645) and OPS (1.067), while swiping 24 bases and hitting .314.

Deeper digging reveals Ordonez hit .423 with 105 RBI in 189 AB's with runners in scoring position, but when the pressure increased, his numbers returned to Earth. With men on and 2 out his average dipped to .309, and with 2 out and men in scoring position it was just .299. Even less impressive- his .247 average and .333 OBP late and close.

A-Rod's key splits are much more consistent. With men in scoring position he hit .330 with 97 RBI in 176 AB's. With men on and two outs he hit .326 with an astonishing 21 homeruns in just 141 AB's. And late and close he hit .357 with a .439 OBP. Interestingly, only 18 of his 54 homeruns were solo. Basically he was always clutch.

That's why A-Rod is my choice and should be everyone else's. On the surface, his overall numbers are astounding, posting the first-ever 50-150-20 season in baseball history. But unlike in years past when people accused him of hitting his homeruns when it was already 8-0 Yankees, this year, he's come up huge when it mattered most. For good measure, here's my top 5.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Magglio Ordonez
3. David Ortiz (led majors in walks, led AL in XBH, hit .332 with 35 homeruns)
4. Carlos Pena (46 HR, 121 RBI, 3rd in AL in OPS, who cares if he's on Tampa?)
5. Vladimir Guerrero (3rd in AL in RBI, hit .324, more walks than strikeouts)

National League
A significantly tougher choice to say the least, as there remain at least 5 deserving players for this award. All things being equal, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright could each stake legitimate claim to this award.

Fielder led the NL in homeruns (50), finished 2nd in OPS (1.013), and third in XBH (87) and RBI (119). Holliday won the batting title (.340), led the majors in XBH (91), finished 2nd in RBI (135), tied for 3rd in runs (119), and in OPS (1.011). Howard led the NL in RBI (136), finished 2nd in homeruns (47), and 4th in walks (107). Rollins led the league in runs (139), finished 2nd in XBH (88), 5th in steals (41) and hit 30 homeruns. And Wright finished 4th in hits (196) and OBP (.416), 5th in runs (113), 7th in average (.325), and like Rollins, went 30-30 (30-34 to be exact).

Before I proceed, I want to make a brief point. Unlike some voters, I personally don't think missing the playoffs should automatically disqualify someone from winning the NL MVP this year. Obviously some of the players on this list will be playing in October (Holliday perhaps, Howard, Rollins) while some will have come up just short (Fielder, Holliday perhaps, Wright). Clearly the guys who did help their teams get in have helped their MVP causes significantly, but just because Fielder and Wright's teams didn't make it, doesn't mean they didn't help their teams get as close as they did. That said, let's look a little deeper.

Fielder had a great September (.333, 11, 22), thrived close and late (.321, 6 HR), but didn't always deliver with men on (.270 with men in scoring position, .220 with 2 out and men in scoring position). Still his power numbers speak for themselves. Ironically, "Fielder" is not a good one. He led all big league first basemen in errors with 14.

Holliday also had a terrific September (.368, 12, 30), an even better final week of the season (.444, .545 OBP, 5 runs, 4 RBI), was good but not great close and late (.287, 7, 18), hit .330 with men in scoring position and .329 with the same situation but two outs.

Howard's September batting average wasn't spectacular (.260), but his other numbers were (11, 26, 25 walks, .413 OBP). And few hitters had a better final week of the season (.381, 5, 11, 1.575 OPS). Close and late, he reached base 42% of the time, even though he only hit .257. He was good with men in scoring position (.282, 18, 91), and excellent in the same situation with two outs (.377, 12, 52). Of his 47 homeruns, 30 came with men on base, although he did set a new single-season strikeout record (199) and fanned 104 times in 278 AB's with men on. And if it wasn't for Prince, Howard's 12 botches at first would have been a league-high.

Interestingly, Phillies fans were chanting M-V-P every time Rollins came to the plate yesterday, not Howard. But J-Roll's splits suggest the fans may have gotten it wrong. He hit .272 with men in scoring position, .239 with men in scoring position and 2 outs, and .255 close and late. He did have a great September (.298, 6, 18, 14 steals) and a really fine final week (.375, 7 runs, 4 steals). The bottom line is, he was the catalyst for the comeback kids and like Curtis Granderson went 20-20-20-20 in doubles, triples, homeruns, and steals. He actually went 38-20-30-41, while playing outstanding defense at short.

Finally, Wright owns the distinction of being the only 30-30 guy in the big leagues who also hit over .300, scored 100 runs, and drove in 100. He hit .352 in September, .400 the final week, and .364 in the second half. He hit .310 with men in scoring position (but just .200 in the same situation with 2 outs), and was a .346 hitter close and late. He will carry a 17-game hitting into the 2008 season and was also above average defensively at third in terms of range, fielding percentage, and double plays.

So where does that leave us, besides, with 5 really well-qualified candidates? Well, in my opinion, there is one guy who stands slightly above the rest of this terrific group, and that guy is Matt Holliday. Aside from being a very good defensive outfielder (7 assists, a .990 fielding percentage), he's hitting .456, 5, 15, with 15 runs during the Rockies' current 13-1 stretch. And for me, the fact that this guy won a batting title and led the majors in extra base hits really speaks to his offensive prowess.

Truthfully, you can't go wrong with any of these 5 guys in any order. With that said, here's my top 5.

1. Matt Holliday
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. David Wright
4. Prince Fielder
5. Ryan Howard

Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year still to come.