Tuesday, October 9, 2007

The Yankees' Playoff Exit...Surprisingly Not Surprising

Let's see here...Chien Ming-Wang (about whom the number one starter debate should end for good) retired 3 batters and gave up 4 runs, Mike Mussina came in for 4 2/3 innings of gutty-but-unspectacular relief, and the Yankees came up 2 runs short against the Cleveland Indians in, what was a do-or-die Game 4 of the ALDS. I know many Yankee fans will be completely shocked at this, their third straight first-round playoff exit, but when you can't pitch, you can't win, especially when you don't hit either.

Consider this. New York pitchers in this series averaged less than 3 2/3 innings pitched per start, or not even 11 batters retired per game. They also posted an 0-2 record, 9.42 E
RA, and 2.30 WHIP. Their relievers were much better, but clearly overworked, as any group would be that has to work an average of 17 hitters per night. In their 22 1/3 innings pitched this series, the Yankee "bullpen" (which included Mike Mussina and Phil Hughes) went 0-1 with a blown save, 3.63 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. Had their starters been even remotely serviceable (say an average of 5 innings a start and 3 earned) this series may have gone to a deciding game.

But the Yankee offense, which was so prolific in the regular season (.290 team average, almost 6 runs a game, 1.24 homeruns per game), was also extraordinarily disappointing. They hit just .216 in the 4 games, and that includes their 13 hits in Game 4. They also left 66 men on base, or an average of 1.78 per inning. Not surprisingly, they averaged a meager 4 runs per game.

But just as the Padres' and Mets' late season collapses are also due to the fantastic play of the Rockies and Phillies respectively, you can't pin this whole thing on New York. The Indians had a hell of a series too. Their relievers gave up just 2 earned over 13 innings. Their starters, while not dominant, averaged a quality start per start (6 IP, 3 earned), and the Tribe hit .315 with a slew of 2 out RBIs. Simply put, the Yanks got outplayed.

While you can't pin this on A-Rod (.267, 1, 1, .389 OBP, 5K, 7 LOB), or Joe Torre, I wouldn't be surprised if they're both calling different cities home next year and they're sure not to be the only ones. ESPN's Howard Bryant went as far as to say the Yankee dynasty is officially over. I'm not sure if I agree 100%, but if they lose A-Rod, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera to free agency, Clemens to retirement, and are stuck with Jason Giambi and Mussina's salaries, it might not matter if Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain remain in pinstripes.

The NLCS and ALCS open up Thursday and Friday respectively and I don't think there's any question the 4 best teams are still alive.

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