Rich Predictions, With Conditions

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.

Andy LaOuch

Did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers or did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers?

Just days after predicting they would win the World Series, third baseman and Rookie of the Year candidate Andy LaRoche tore a tigament in his thumb and will miss two months or more. And it was on a totally freak play. There was a rundown, an errant throw, and a riccochet. Interestingly, LaRoche had just entered the game to replace Nomar Garciaparra, who had to leave the game after being hit by a pitch. Luckily for Nomar, his x-rays are negative, and for now, the third base job is his.

Raise Your Hand If You're Hurt

Okay Gregg Zaun isn't (yet) but B.J. Ryan, Troy Glaus, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, Carl Pavano, Hideki Matsui, Rich Harden, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Prior (shocker), Kerry Wood (double shocker), Ramon Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Octavio Dotel, Jered Weaver, Vlad Guerrero, Chone Figgins, Chris Carpenter, Randy Johnson, and Kaz Matsui are all banged up.

Is it just me, or is that an awful lot of talent on the shelf, less than three weeks into the season?