AL West: Flip A Coin

Seattle or L.A.? L.A. or Seattle? I know this much. One of these teams is winning the division and the other will (likely) miss the playoffs because the Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Tribe should all finish with better records.

So, who's going to be where?

Well, both teams added a big name in the offseason- the Angels when the signed free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter and Seattle when they traded for lefty Erik Bedard. Both teams also added another starting pitcher- Jon Garland went to L.A. and Carlos Silva went to Seattle. And both teams also lost a few key players. L.A. said goodbye to Orlando Cabrera, while Seattle parted ways with Jose Guillen, plus Adam Jones and George Sherrill (to get Bedard). Just for a frame of reference, Seattle finished 6 games back of the Halos last year. They won 88 games to L.A.'s 94.

So taking all that into account, what do you have? Well, in my opinion, you have a Seattle club that's going to be just a little bit better than the Angels for the following reasons. First and foremost- pitching. Bedard and Felix Hernandez have the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in the league. Jarrod Washburn pitched better than his record indicated last year, and even though Miguel Batista was the exact opposite, Silva is better than your average number 5, in that he's an experienced vet. Meantime, with Kelvim Escobar (somehow, an 18-game winner last year) out until at least May with shoulder problems (I suspect he'll stay on the shelf a lot longer), you have an L.A. rotation that will feature John Lackey and Jered Weaver at the front end. Lackey is steady as ever, but Weaver looked a lot more human in '07 than he did in '06. Then you have Jon Garland who was sub-.500 last year with a K:BB of less than 2:1, and Joe Saunders, who's still trying to earn a spot, officially, in the rotation and has never pitched a full season in the bigs. The overall talent level and experience level of these starters is no comparison.

Then there's the offense. Neither club is going to set records, but again I give the nod to the M's. Yes, L.A. scored more runs than Seattle last year, but not by much, and they also lost their top run-scorer, Cabrera, a guy who also hit over .300 and stole 20 bases. True they added Torii Hunter but may actually wish the had O-Cab instead halfway through the season. I guess I've just never been a huge Hunter fan, offensively. Plus, aside from Chone Figgins, L.A.'s infield is very inexperienced (Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and catcher Mike Napoli). It just seems to me this team isn't that much different from last year's, which was Vlad Guerrero and not much else. Seattle seems to be a bit more balanced. They have the best leadoff hitter in the game in Ichiro, potentially dangerous bats in the middle of the order (Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, fresh off a .205 season) and guys who are tough outs (Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Vidro, and Kenji Johjima). We'll see. Another big injury or big trade could shift the balance quite a bit, so anything's possible.

What's not possible though, is Texas or Oakland finishing in first place. For seemingly the 37th year in a row, Texas just doesn't have the pitching. They've completely re-worked their outfield with Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley, plus a lot of people are interested to see what Jarrod Saltalamacchia can do with a full season, and their middle infielders (Michael Young and Ian Kinsler) are quite talented. But they don't have the arms and if you can't pitch, you can't win. Just for fun, I looked this up. Texas hasn't had a starter with an ERA below 4.00 and at least 16 wins in a season since Ken Hill in 1996. Ken Hill. 1996. Eeh.

Then there's Oakland. This year's going to be rough. No Dan Haren, no Nick Swisher, no Mark Kotsay, and no Mike Piazza (not that they got much from him in '07). But they'll look for bounce-back years from Huston Street, Eric Chavez and the oft-injured Bobby Crosby and Rich Harden. And they'll be back and better than ever in a few years (perhaps by 2011 when they're ready to move into their new ballpark). Catcher Kurt Suzuki, first baseman Daric Barton, and outfielders Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in the Dan Haren trade) can all play. But they need hundreds of at-bats first. They also got some really good arms in their firesale- starters Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Fautino de los Santos and reliever Joey Devine. So Oakland fans will have to be patient.

That said, here's my prediction...

Seattle 93-69
Los Angeles 88-74
Texas 74-88
Oakland 69-93