AL East: The More Things Don't Change...

...the more they stay the same. The biggest moves involving the AL East this offseason deal, for the first time in a long time, with players leaving. A handful of big names left the division, the league, or baseball altogether (Erik Bedard, Eric Gagne, Miguel Tejada, Delmon Young, Troy Glaus, Roger Clemens). The only former All-Stars who joined the division during the offseason are Sean Casey (Boston), Scott Rolen and David Eckstein (both Toronto) and their best days are all behind them.

That, coupled with the relative lack of activity (other than re-signing their own key guys) of the Red Sox and Yankees, it's not surprising that I'm expecting the East to pan out about how it did last year. IMO, even without Curt Schilling for an extended stretch of time, the Bo Sox pitching is stronger than New York's. Josh Beckett has the chance to emerge to near-Johan-Santana-status with a 2008 season similar to his 2007 and there's little reason to suspect he can't do it. Yes, the Sox will lean on the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz this year a bit more than they were expecting a few weeks ago, but so will the Yankees with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain. I'd take the Sox supporting cast (Dice-K and Wakefield) over the Yankees' (Pettitte, Mussina/Pavano) any day of the week.

The highest drama in the division in '08 (besides, of course, whether New York has enough muscle to edge out Cleveland, Detroit, LA, and Seattle for the Wild Card) might be whether this is the year the D-Rays finish 3rd. Yes 3rd. The Orioles, finally committed to a youth movement, are clearly punting 2008, so they'll be dead last for sure. The Jays did finish above .500 last year and their left side of the infield will be vastly improved. Plus, if B.J. Ryan is truly healthy, that will create some much-needed stability at the back of the pen. A few thousand miles south, Tampa Bay lost its Devil, but gained plenty of young talent (Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, James Shields, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Evan "Don't Call Me Eva" Longoria, and the active-until-injured Rocco Baldelli), plus they re-signed Carlos Pena to a multi-year deal. The back end of their rotation is still shaky at best, but these guys will be competitive.

That said, here's how it shakes out...

Boston 97-65
New York 93-69
Toronto 82-80
Tampa 81-81
Baltimore 58-104

Next up, an AL Central that's even more top-heavy than the AL East.