By my estimate there are three teams that could reasonably win the NL Central this year- the Cubs (who won it last year), the Brewers (who finished just 2 games back last year) and the Reds who finished 13 back. Yes, the Reds.I'll start with the obvious- Chicago. They trimmed some fat in the offseason, parting ways with Jason Kendall, Mark Prior, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones (none of whom will be particularly missed). In the process, they added a slugging right fielder from Japan (Kosuke Fukodome) and an aging hurler looking to prove he can still be an effective starter (Jon Lieber). Those two may not be Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but overall, it's a net gain for the Cubs, a team which won 85 games last year. Now to the really good news for the boys in blue. Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all enter the season poised to play in 150 games apiece, something that hasn't happened while these three righty boppers have been on the same team. Plus, they have promising youngsters Giovany Soto (catcher) and Felix Pie (center) up the middle. And for the first time in a while, they have a seemingly sure-fire option to close- Carlos Marmol. He was filthy out of the pen in 2007 after a miserable 2006 as a starter. His strikeout-to-walk ratio went from 1:1 to almost 3:1 and as a result, he allowed 41 fewer earned runs in 7 2/3 fewer innings. He also held batters to a .169 clip and had 16 holds. Ryan Dempster who? Their starting pitching staff (minus Marmol) remains very solid too. When he keeps his emotions in check, Carlos Zambrano is about as good as they come, Ted Lilly quietly won 15 games with a sub-1.20 WHIP last year, Rich Hill held opponents to a .235 batting average over 32 starts and Jason Marquis even won 12 games.
Milwaukee was oh-so-close last year, but still finished with a winning record for the first time in 15 years. And like the Cubs, Milwaukee is as good, if not better than they were a year ago. They'll have Ryan Braun (now an outfielder) for 162 games. Francisco Cordero is out, Eric Gagne is in at closer. Johnny Estrada is out and Jason Kendall is in behind the plate. Once he returns from his PED suspension, Mike Cameron will play center, shifting Bill Hall back to third base and they added occasionally-reliable relievers Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres. Plus they have this guy named Prince whose dad used to be a big leaguer. He's supposed to be pretty good too. For Milwaukee, their biggest question mark is their starting pitching. Ben Sheets hasn't made 25 starts or thrown 160 innings in a season since 2004. Dave Bush did not have the breakout 2007 many predicted. Jeff Suppan will be a .500 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA no matter where he ends up. Chris Capuano needs to pretend last season never happened, promising rookie Yovanni Gallardo just had minor knee surgery after tearing cartilage, but he's expected to be ready to go by Opening Day, and the Beer Makers need to decide if Carlos Villanueva is better suited for the pen or the rotation. If the stars align, this rotation could be dangerous (a healthy Sheets and Gallardo, Bush breaks out a year late, Capuano returns to his '06 form, and Suppan pitches like it's the '06 postseason). But right now, I have to give the edge to the Cubs.
Then there's Cincinnati. The biggest name they added was Francisco Cordero and the biggest name they lost was Josh Hamilton. Neither is Earth-shattering (although Cordero might help them improve upon their 28 blown saves from last year, second worst in baseball). But it's their farm system's additions to the big club that could (emphasis on could) propel this team into the driver's seat. There are three guys (pitcher Homer Bailey, first baseman Joey Votto, and outfielder Jay Bruce) who could turn a team that went 72-90 in '07, into a team that goes 90-72 in '08. Bailey had a forgettable debut thanks to a groin injury, but may be a bigger talent than Phil Hughes in New York. Votto had an OPS of more than .900 in 84 AB's last year and first base is now his. And while Bruce is blocked in the outfield right now (Griffey, Freel, Dunn), he's being compared to Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence in terms of his instant-impact potential. But then again, he doesn't have a job yet. The Reds have the right pieces in place, though. Aaron Harang is a workhorse. Brandon Phillips went 30-30 last year, Edwin Encarnacion is still young and Griffey and Dunn should hit at least 65 bombs between the two of them. So if their rookies contribute and if Bronson Arroyo gets straightened out, you could be looking at this year's version of the Colorado Rockies.
As for everybody else, a new-look Houston club just will not have the pitching to compete in this division. Roy Oswalt and Four Other Guys won't get it done against the hitters I've already named. Right now, I like their revamped infield with Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui, but between Miggy's PED problems and Matsui's penchant for going belly-up, this could be a disaster by July. Michael Bourne "Ultimatum" should steal a ton of bases and could score a bunch in front of Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, but not enough to make up for how many runs this team will give up. New closer Jose Valverde won't sniff 47 saves this year. Heck, he might not get 47 chances.
The St. Louis Cardinals are kind of like a bad version of Houston. They have even less pitching (Adam Wainwright is their Opening Day starter), and an offense that isn't nearly as frightening as the 'Stros. Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan may be the least exciting starting outfield in the bigs (although minor leaguer Colby Rasmus could change that quickly). And in the infield, it's Albert Pujols, Troy Glaus and not much more. Thank goodness for the Red Birds, they have Tony LaRussa and...
The Pittsburgh Pirates. The last time they had a winning season, Bill Clinton was elected President, Barry Bonds won his second MVP award, the Washington Redskins were Super Bowl champs, and for the first time ever, Americans bought more CDs than cassette tapes. It was 1992! If there is one safe bet going into 2008, it's that Pittsburgh extends its losing streak to 16 seasons in a row. In 2007, they were 23rd in runs, 25th in OBP, 21st in slugging, 26th in ERA, 21st in quality starts, and 29th in BAA and their biggest offseason acquisitions were Chris Gomez and Byung Hyun-Kim. 82-80? Dream on.
Here's my prediction...
Chicago 88-74
Milwaukee 87-75
Cincinnati 85-77
Houston 70-92
St. Louis 65-97
Pittsburgh 60-102
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