Tuesday, February 26, 2008

NL West: The Best There Is

The Arizona Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL in 2007 and enter 2008 having added All-Star Game starring pitcher Dan Haren to a rotation that already boasts Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb. Meantime, Randy Johnson is now throwing to live hitters at spring training as he rehabs from season-ending back surgery last year. And to top it all off, youngsters Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton are all a year older and a year more experienced. And one of these days people are going to appreciate what a good player Eric Byrnes is...some day.

Meantime, the Colorado Rockies went to the World Series last year after winning 21 of 22 games from mid-September on. They enter 2008 with Matt Holliday resigned to a multi-year deal and out to prove he should have been the MVP not Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki out to prove he should have been the Rookie of the Year instead of Ryan Braun, and their only significant losses were Kaz Matsui and LaTroy Hawkins.

The San Diego Padres finished just a game and a half off the pace last year and have swapped Jim Edmonds for Mike Cameron in center field, Tadahito Iguchi for Marcus Giles at second base, and could have the best 1-5 starting rotation in baseball if Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior, and Randy Wolf all stay healthy.

The Los Angeles Dodgers still managed to finish above .500 last year and addressed a variety of deficiencies during the offseason. They now have Joe Torre at the helm, Andruw Jones in center and in the middle of the lineup, it appears Rafael Furcal is completely healed from a ankle injury, they'll enjoy the services of youngsters James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andy LaRoche for a full season, plus they've quietly assembled a very respectable starting rotation behind Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, which includes 12-game winner Chad Bilingsley, Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, and the rehabbing Jason Schmidt as the number 5.

The San Francisco Giants also play in the NL West.

No other division in baseball has four teams that could all legitimately make it to the postseason and that's why the NL West should be as wild as it was last year, when a 1-game, extra-inning affair decided who was going to the NLDS and who was going golfing.

This division is virtually impossible to predict. So instead, here's what has to go right, can't go wrong, or needs to be answered by these teams.

Arizona: Randy Johnson really is a key cog in their whole operation. He needs 16 wins to reach 300 for his career and don't think he doesn't know that. Plus, in light of the whole Roger Clemens/steroids/FBI thing, Johnson has a chance to supplant The Rocket (hard as that was to imagine 4 months ago) as "best pitcher of the generation and one of the best ever" if he reaches that magic plateau. So certainly the motivation is there. But will his body hold up? If it does, the D-Backs will be the favorite to reach, and perhaps win the Series because nobody's beating a rotation of Webb, Haren, and The Big Unit. It's also worth pointing out that Jose Valverde is gone and Brandon Lyon is getting first crack at 9th inning duties. He's tried this before with other teams and failed, so stay tuned.

Colorado: I think the biggest question for the men in purple and black is- are they for real? They were arguably the hottest team in sports history before they ran into a brick wall (Boston) in the Fall Classic. They certainly don't need to have another 21 for 22 stretch, but even after their historic run, there are people who wonder if they can win 11 out of every 20 over a 6 month period. They'll hit for sure, but how good is the rotation (Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hirsh, Franklin Morales) really going to be?

San Diego: In a way, they're the anti-Rockies. They folded down the stretch and pitch well enough to make up for their bad offense. With the fathers, I think Trevor Hoffman is going to play a huge role in their season. Can he still be counted on, close and late? And if not, how long is it going to take to determine, that somebody else needs to close? After all, this guy is an institution with this franchise- their most recognizable player since Tony Gwynn. How do you make him a middle reliever? Aside from Hoff, Prior and Wolf have the opportunity to be saviors or sinners at the back end of their rotation. If they're able to pitch every 5 days, there's no reason each starter can't win at least 12 or 13 games.

Los Angeles: Strange as it seems, I think a lot LA's success will hinge on Rafael Furcal's ability to have a bounce-back season. If he's able to return to his usual 100 runs, 30 steals, .350 OBP, and 45 extra base hits, then many of the other pieces will fall into place. Juan Pierre will be bunting or hitting a lot of groundballs to the right side, and there will be men on base for the heart of the order, which will make it easier for Andruw Jones to go back to being Andruw Jones. And what will LA do with the likes of Andre Either, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra? They can't all play.

San Francisco: Hope for big years out of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and a rebound campaign from Barry Zito. Unfortunately, with Aarow Rowand replacing Barry Bonds in this, already feeble lineup, it's not going to matter much.

With all that said, here's my prediction...

Arizona 101-61
Los Angeles 93-69
Colorado 89-74
San Diego 79-83
San Francisco 75-87

1 comment:

Unknown said...

I like your numbers except for the Giants. They might be as bad as the O's, and they only have two young pieces (Cain and Lincecum) to show for it.