Welcome Back

A couple of potentially playoff-bound teams will gladly welcome the return of former 20-game winners to their starting rotations this week.

First the New York Mets, 3 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, will send Pedro Martinez to the mound Monday night in Cincinnati, to take on Aaron Harang and the Reds. Pedro hasn't pitched since September 27 of last year when he suffered his fourth straight loss and retired just 8 batters before giving up 7 runs to the Atlanta Braves. He had off-season rotator cuff surgery and Willie Randolph says he will be limited to 75 pitches and no more than 35 in an inning, tomorrow.

And the St. Louis Cardinals, now 2 games back of the NL Central leading Cubs, will get Mark Mulder back in their starting rotation, likely Wednesday, at home, against Matt Morris and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mulder, like Pedro, had rotator cuff surgery in the off-season and has been rehabbing ever since. Mulder has not pitched in a big league game since August 29 of last year, where he suffered his third straight loss and got just 5 outs before giving up 5 runs to the Florida Marlins. Interestingly, once he returns, the Cardinals will go to a 6-man rotation featuring Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kip Wells, Joel Pineiro, Mulder, and Anthony Reyes. The thinking here is all the converted relievers, rookies, and guys coming off injuries will have an extra day's rest in-between starts. Tony LaRussa hasn't said what sort of restrictions will be in place for Mulder, but you can bet he'll be on a pitch count for a while.

It's difficult to say what sort of impact these two will have, if any, on the 2007 stretch run. But you know their teams and teammates are just glad to see them, apparently, fully recovered from major arm surgery. At their peak, these guys were some of the best in the game and just a few years ago, both were still major contributors. In 2005 Pedro went 15-8 with a 2.82 and 208 K's while Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.74 ERA and 2 shutouts. If they can both make about 4 starts this month and get their arms into decent shape, and if their teams make it to October, who knows, they could come up huge.

The Big Three, Minus Two

I was looking back at an old post of mine from March, about former Oakland Athletics teammates Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder. The gist of that particular blog entry was, statistically speaking, those guys were much better as teammates than they've been since. I also mentioned the fact that all three really had quite a bit to prove this season.

Well, almost 5 months to the day later, it seems two of them still have a lot to prove (arguably even more than they did back in spring training), while the third guy, Tm Hudson, has quietly enjoyed an excellent season.

Hudson is fresh off a win in his 7th consecutive decision. His 13 total wins are tied for second in the National League and his 3.01 ERA is good for 5th. Opponents are slugging just .320 against him, which is 3rd best in baseball behind San Diego's pair of aces, and no big league starter has given up fewer homeruns than he has (4), which is remarkable considering he gave up 25 a year ago. That, coupled with his renewed command (38 walks in 164 2/3 innings, compared to 79 in 218 1/3 a year ago), has really been the difference for Huddy in '07. And even with two sub-par seasons with the Braves prior to this year, he still owns the 5th best winning percentage among active pitchers (Santana, Pedro, Oswalt, and Halladay are in front of him, and not by much).

While Hudson has improved, Zito has regressed, big time. It's probably still too early to say his 7-year, $126 million dollar deal ranks among the worst of all time, but #75 has done next-to-nothing to silence his critics who said there was no way he deserved to be the richest pitcher in baseball history. With 37 more walks this season, Zito's base on balls allowed total will have risen for a third straight year. With just 8 wins so far, he's running the risk of setting a new career low (it's 11 right now), his 5.16 ERA would easily be a career worst (it's a full run and a half higher than his carer average), and he's allowing almost 3 baserunners every two innings. I guess the only silver lining at this point is that 2008 will almost certainly be an improvement, and it's not exclusively his fault the Giants are so bad.

Then there's Mulder. At first, we were expecting he'd be fully recovered from rotator cuff surgery by July. Here we are in mid-August and he's thrown as many big league innings as I have thus far. The latest word on his progress is that he threw a simulated game Monday, and he could re-join the red birds before September. Even though the Cardinals are 6 games under .500, they're only 5.5 back in the Central, so the '06 champs are not out of it, yet. But if they fall much further out of contention, their motivation to get Mulder back on the mound this year has to be virtually nil. I know this much. He won't be rushed.

I guess the story of the Big Three is really a microcosm of the fluid state of elite starting pitching in today's game. GMs would have killed for these guys five years ago. Now, the Braves have to be thinking, "it's about time" while the Giants are thinking "six more years of this?" and the Cardinals are thinking, "I wonder what he has left?" Kind of makes you wonder what the future has in store for today's aces.

Remember The Big Three?

Most Oakland A's fans remember the days of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. But now it seems this once-dominant trio of aces has been reduced to shadows of their former, up-and-coming selves. And interestingly, all three enter this season with a lot to prove.

The Rise Of The Big Three...
Back in 2000, a diminutive, relatively unknown, 24-year-old righty named Tim Hudson went 20-6 for the AL West champion Athletics in just his first full season in the big leagues.

The following season two other youngsters, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, both of whom were also in their first full seasons on the big club, emerged as top-notch starters as well and the Big Three was born. Hudson improved in nearly every category except wins (he still won 18) and the A's won the wild card. The trio combined to win 56 games, with 21 of them coming from Mulder. Each one of them posted sub-3.50 ERAs, and not one of them was over the age of 25.

In 2002, it was Zito's turn to reach the 20-win plateau. Not only did he reach it, but he exceeded it, notching 24 victories, to go along with a 2.75 ERA and a Cy Young award. For the third year in a row, Hudson improved across the board, but the bullpen had a knack for coughing up his solid performances and he finished with just 15 wins. Mulder won 19. The A's won the division again. And again, not one of them had an ERA over 3.50.

In 2003, the Big Three was alive and well again, even though they didn't have a 20-game-winner. Hudson earned 16 W's, and posted a career-low 2.70 ERA. Zito finished a somewhat disappointing 14-12, but he did post a respectable 3.30 ERA. Mulder's win total dipped too (down to 15) despite a career best 3.13 ERA. He also led the league in complete games. But a hip injury limited him to 26 starts and he missed the playoffs, and the A's were sent packing in the first round for the fourth year in a row. Still, at the end of the season Hudson was 28, Mulder was 26, and Zito was 25, and optimism was high going into 2004.

...And Then The Fall
2004 was the beginning of the end. The A's missed the playoffs. Hudson missed time with an oblique injury and posted a career low win total (12) while his ERA shot up almost a whole run. Zito and Mulder's ERA's ballooned as well to 4.48 and 4.43 respectively. Zito also posted an unforgettable 11-11 record. And even though he won 17 games, Mulder was simply awful down the stretch, going 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 12 starts.

That's when Oakland GM Billy Beane decided to mix things up. He shipped Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for starter Dan Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and minor league catcher Daric Barton (a deal that looks completely lopsided today). And he sent Hudson to the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Charles Thomas, pitcher Juan Cruz, and minor league pitcher Dan Meyer. Zito was the only member of the Big Three to survive the 2004 off-season.

To put it into perspective, here's the average, full season these guys posted together as the Big Three:

Tim Hudson (2000-2004) 16 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Mark Mulder (2001-2004) 18 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Barry Zito (2001-2004) 16W, 3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

And here's what they've done since:

Hudson with Atlanta (05, 06) 13.5 W, 4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Mulder with St. Louis (05, 06) 11 W, 4.74 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Zito with Oakland (05, 06) 15 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Zito has clearly been the most consistent of the bunch. He's the only one who hasn't visited the DL since their forced break-up. And he has yet to miss a start in his 7-year-career. But it still looks like his "breakout" 2002 performance was a career best, not a preview of things to come. Hudson's return to his home state of Georgia simply hasn't been the feel-good story lots of people expected. He's been hurt, he's been wild, and he just hasn't been that number one starter he was in Oakland. As for Mulder, he had a solid 2005, and started off okay in 2006, but then suffered a horrid May and June. The Cards shut him down for a month, he made two more bad starts, then they shut him down for good in September. He had rotator cuff surgery later that month.

Looking Ahead
Despite reports that the Braves tried to trade him this off-season, Hudson says he's ready to prove his doubters wrong. And he has plenty of them. He turns 32 this season, he had an injury-free season last year, and his strikeout total went up. But his WHIP has increased each of the last four years and it's hard to ignore his career worst 4.86 ERA. He also gave up 25 gopher balls, perhaps a sign his two-seamer isn't sinking as much as it once did.

Mulder has to prove that he can be a productive big league pitcher again, after major arm surgery. He's not expected to return to the mound until July and we probably won't get a true sense for how good he will, or won't be, until 2008. He's never been a big strikeout guy, and a stitched-up shoulder probably won't help that improve.

Then there's Zito. Entering 2007, he's slated to start Opening Day again, just for a different Bay Area team. And after signing a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal a few months ago, it's up to him to show he's at least moderately close to worth it. I'd imagine another 15-win season with a near 4.00 ERA might not be enough. And of course if he does get hurt, the critics who said his deal was outrageous, will only give themselves a collective pat on the back.

There's no denying that so far, these guys pitched much better when they were all on the same team. But there's also no denying that their past success as the Big Three will always leave people wondering if this is the year when they revert back to their old form and flirt with 20 wins again.