Arms Race

If today was Sunday, April 4th and not Thursday, December 24th, we would be just hours away from the start of the 2010 baseball season with the defending champion Yankees visiting Fenway Park on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  Unfortunately, we have to wait 101 days for that to happen.  But with New York and Boston adding big-name starters to already talented pitching staffs this month, it's not too early to start the debate: whose is better right now?

First- where things stand.  If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser

While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin

My first impression is how similar these rotations are.  Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end.  So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.

Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story.  When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia.  C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September).  Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.

At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start).  He also led the team in strikeouts.  Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included).  So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox.  And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right.  But Beckett is still better than Burnett.  So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.

I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team.  For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot.  For the Yanks- same thing.  Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.

As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why.  Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season.  He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good.  His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason.  Is he worth what he got?  No.  Is he a lock to make 32 starts?  No.  But will he work nicely here?  I think so.  And it's the same thing for Dice-K.  He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable.  It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy.  His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble.  But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent.  Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.

The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte.  Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one.  It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67.  For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning.  Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season.  That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3.  With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect.  He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee.  With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4.  The problem is, he turns 38 in June.  To his credit, he had a great second half of '09.  But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason.  Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade.  The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health.  Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season.  But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.

At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it.  In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1.  He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts.  He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch.  We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.

In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing.  In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance.  He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings.  What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever.  Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances.  But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1.  So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there.  Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen.  Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved).  In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500.  So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories.  New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.

Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations?  Hard to say.  I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible.  For now, I give the edge to Boston.  We'll see what happens in 101 days.

Is That The Best Atlanta Could Do?

Javy Vazquez is headed back to New York and all the defending champs had to give up to get him was Melky Cabrera (plus throw-in reliever Mike Dunn and a player to be named). 

Melky Cabrera...for a guy who was second in the NL in strikeouts last year and got votes for Cy Young.

Now, if the Braves were giving up the 2004 version of Vazquez (his one and only year as a Yankee) when he had a 4.91 ERA and just 150 strikeouts in 198 innings, I'd say this deal wouldn't be quite so lopsided.  But the 2009 version of Javy finished top-5 in wins, K's, WHIP, CGs, IP, and was 6th in ERA- in other words- he's coming off a career year.

Cabrera is, at best, a useful defensive player.  But he is also an average-to-below average offensive player and headed to a team in desperate need of sluggers.  True, he's just 25.  But he's gotten 400+ at-bats each of the last 4 seasons (and played in 150+ games twice).  During that span, he's never reached 15 homeruns, never stolen 15 bases, never scored 80 runs (in the Yankee lineup, mind you), never hit 30 doubles, never batted above .280, never driven-in 75, never topped 60 walks, and never slugged .420.  He is not currently, nor do imagine him ever becoming, an impact bat.

I know the Braves were looking to move a starter.  Even without Vazquez, they still have Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami to go along with new relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito...so their staff is still the deepest in the division (if not the league) 1 through 5.  But their lineup is also one of the thinnest.  It features Brian McCann, Chipper, Nate McLouth and a lot of unproven/unexciting guys everywhere else.  By moving Javy they had a chance to remedy that.  But in my opinion, they just blew it.

Grander(son) Slam For The Yanks?

Finally!  FINALLY!  The Yankees have found a way to land a big name during the offseason.

Poor Bronx Bomber fans have had to suffer an excruciating month-plus since winning the World Series, and almost an entire year since their last big-name offseason "get."  But now, their wait is over.  Their patience, rewarded.  Curtis Granderson, appears to be headed to New York...concrete jungle where dreams are made of...there's nothing you can't do..now you're in New York (and so on, and so forth).

Breaking down the 3-team deal, it's unclear who the true winner is because there's so much young talent involved, but here's what we know.  New York gets Granderson, a guy who can play center field but a guy who, offensively, has been somewhat enigmatic during the course of his career.  Is he the guy who had a putrid-for-a-top-of-the-order-type .321 OBP last year with 30 bombs and 141 wiffs or is he the guy who seemed destined for superstardom just two years ago when he hit .302 with 122 runs, and 84 XBH?  I dunno.  But what I do know is that his OPS and his runs totals have both dipped for 3 straight seasons and for his career, he averages a strikeout every 4.2 at-bats.

Tim Kurkjian had a good point on SportsCenter just now, though.  He said in the Yankee lineup, all Granderson has to be is good, not great- a defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon (check) and a guy who won't let the bright lights and big city atmosphere become a distraction (based on his character to date, we can mark this as a check, too).  For the record, Damon went .282/24/82 with 12 steals last year.  There's no reason to think Granderson won't at least match that, plus he's 8 years younger, so we can only presume he will be an upgrade.

The other players (and teams) involved in this deal are fascinating too.  The Diamondbacks will add Detroit's Edwin Jackson and New York's Ian Kennedy to a rotation that already features Dan Haren and Brandon Webb.  After years of hype and promise, Jackson finally put it together last year.  He won 13 games, topped 200 IP for the first time in his career, and notched 161 strikeouts with a respectable 1.26 WHIP.  He's only 26 years old, but his ERA did rise in every single month of the '09 season.

Kennedy is about to turn 25 and hasn't logged 60 career big league innings, but has been a guy on New York's radar for the last few seasons, despite battling injuries on and off in 2009.  He's no lock to make the rotation out of camp, but if given the opportunity, could turn in a Jackson-in-'09 type year in 2010.

Detroit, according to ESPN's Keith Law, is the early front-runner for "team that made out the best" in this transaction.  They dump Granderson's salary.  They get the mega-hyped 25-year-old flamethrower Max Scherzer from Arizona, along with 23-year-old reliever Daniel Schlereth.  On top of that, they get workhorse reliever Phil Coke from the Yanks and one of their top prospects, outfielder Austin Jackson.

Scherzer has electric stuff, a violent motion, and 240 career strikeouts in 226 1/3 career innings at the major league level so his ceiling could be quite high and in Detroit, he will compliment Justin Verlander quite nicely.  Schlereth is a lefty, was the 26th player taken in the '08 draft, and also averaged more than a punch an inning in limited action last year (18 1/3 innings).  Coke, another lefty, made 72 appearances for the champs last year, notched 21 holds and finished with a WHIP just a touch over 1.00 but did allow 10 homeruns in 60 innings.  And Jackson hit .300 at Triple-A last year with more than 20 steals and 65 RBI.  In other words, he could be a less powerful, more disciplined version of Granderson, and soon.

Bottom line...the Yankees upgrade defensively, perhaps a little bit offensively, and definitely get younger but it costs them an aging-prospect-starter, a reliable lefty set-up man and one of their top offensive prospects who might end up being close to as good as they guy they got.  Arizona gets an up-and-coming middle-of-the rotation starter, plus a guy who might also be another middle-of-the rotation starter but it costs them a young lefty and one of their more exciting, young big league arms.  And Detroit gets leaner, gets another young fireballer, two good lefty relievers, and a guy who...in a few years...could make them forget about the only guy they gave up.  At this moment, I agree with Keith Law.

See that.  Made it the entire post without mentioning Roy Halladay.

Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

Teixeira?  Jeter?  A-Rod?  Sabathia?  Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez.  Once he returned to action, they went 90-44.  So was he the engine that powered their lineup?  Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage).  At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats.  True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415.  During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs.  And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either.  Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break.  But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby.  They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away.  So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month.  But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex.  Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914.  Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up.  They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining.  A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too.  My vote goes to Teixeira.

Things Just Got Interesting

Wow, talk about story lines in the AL East.

The Rays snapped their 7-game road losing streak in Kansas City and now lead the Sox by a full game...the Sox got David Ortiz back after a nearly two-month absense but still got shut out by the Yankees 1-0...and during the game the Yankees pulled off a 6-player trade acquiring Xavier Nady (a much-needed righty bat) and Damaso Marte (a much-needed lefty reliever) from Pittsburgh.

Oh, by the way...the Rays, Sox, and Bombers are now separated by just 3 games. Tampa and New York each have 60 games remaining and Boston has 58.

Now the question is, which team (or teams if Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, Oakland, or Toronto get hot...they're all within 7.5 of the Wild Card) will be on the outside looking in come October? Does Tampa have enough experience and offense to finish strong? Will Boston's bullpen hold up and will its lineup wake up? And can New York recover from its litany of injuries and continue to ride Moose and Joba to a 14th straight playoff appearance?

I think most people were expecting August and September to be a dogfight in the AL East, but I don't think too many were expecting a third pooch in the ring.

Why People Hate The New York Yankees

"It's just disheartening. It's spring training. I just don't understand. I told all my players to play hard, but when you do something like that you take your chances that you will get someone hurt."

That's what new, New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi said four days ago after a play at the plate where Tampa Bay second baseman Elliot Johnson plowed into Yankees' catcher Francisco Cervelli in the 9th inning (starters no longer in the game), breaking Cervelli's wrist and sidelining him 8-10 weeks in the process. If you've never heard of Johnson or Cervelli before, there's good reason. Combined, they have zero at-bats in the bigs. Johnson just turned 24 and Cervelli just turned 22. Neither were expected to make the team's opening day rosters.

Don Zimmer immediately responded to Girardi's comments, saying they sounded un-Girardi-like.

"You block the plate. If I slide into him and break a leg, nothing is said. Instead of breaking my leg, I bowl him over and it's not the right play? Well, to me it is the right play, spring training, or no spring training. Play the game the right way. To me, our kid played it the way he thought it was right, and I think it was right," Zim said.

And Zimmer is right, especially considering what the Rays are trying to do- have their first winning season in franchise history. You don't accomplish that by letting Girardi's message of "play hard some of the time, just don't get hurt" be your organizational mantra. The Rays don't have New York's history, talent, or budget, so they're going to have to play hard to win. Johnson is trying to make a good impression on his organization by being gritty. Not dirty, gritty. There's a difference. And for that matter, Cervelli was trying to be gritty too, by blocking the plate. Obviously Johnson wasn't trying to break Cervelli's wrist, but that's what happens sometimes when a catcher blocks the plate.

Nevertheless Girardi said there wasn't any bad blood between the two AL East clubs. But it now appears he may come in a close second to former Governor Eliot Spitzer for the title of Biggest Hypocrite in New York.

This was the scene Wednesday in the second inning (mind you, less than 10 outs from the first pitch, starters still playing). Despite being warned before the game, Yankee hurler Heath Phillips (not a candidate for the rotation) drilled Rays' top prospect Evan Longoria with a pitch (the projected opening day third baseman). Phillips was ejected and both dugouts were warned again, but apparently Shelley Duncan (and Girardi, perhaps) didn't get the message, because Duncan went spikes-up into Rays' infielder Akinori Iwamura (another starter). Duncan was ejected, then tackled by Jonny Gomes who came racing in from right field and both benches emptied.

Duncan hinted he was going to do something meat-headed or dirty (not gritty) right after the collision at home a few days ago.

"They showed what is acceptable to them and how they're going to play the game, so we're going to go out there to match their intensity, or even exceed it," he told reporters after Cervelli-gate.

What his quote basically says is, "we're going to exceed their intensity by playing dirty."

A gritty player doesn't need to tell everyone how hard he's going to play, because he just goes out and does it. But that's not what Duncan did because he's a non-starter, goon. He's 6'6'', 225 pounds, 28 years old, and has 74 career at-bats in the majors. If he gets hurt it doesn't matter. So he either took it upon himself to avenge a guy whose name he probably didn't know a month ago, or he was sent in to do his manager's dirty work.

The biggest problem I have here is the fact that Duncan, Girardi, or both, specifically targeted Tampa's starters- Iwamura and Longoria. It wasn't Jorge Posada who got plowed into four days ago. It was a guy who was going to be in high-A ball. That's playing dirty and trying to injure half of Tampa's starting infield.

Collisions at the plate are part of the game. They happen. Nobody scripts them out ahead of time. And in most cases, nobody involved in one does so with malicious intent. A runner wants to score, a catcher wants to tag him out. But throwing at people and going in spikes-high...those actions are just the opposite. They're premeditated, malicious, and dirty.

Thankfully, nobody got hurt during today's exchanges and no punches were thrown. But it will be interesting to see if the Yankees continue to be as petty as they've been so far when these teams hook up in the regular season, April 4 in the Bronx. It was also be interesting to see if Tampa decides to retaliate a little higher up the totem pole...i.e. against one of the Yankees' starters, not Shelley Duncan.

Joba, The What?

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, the New York Yankees already have very specific plans for rookie Joba Chamberlain this year, according to the New York Post.

In an effort to keep him from exceeding 140 IP in '08, the Bombers want him to start the season as Mariano Rivera's set-up man. Then some time in June, they'll send him down to the minors so he can begin to train to become a starter. After about a month, they'll bring him back up and he'll join the rotation for the rest of the season.

Memo to New York: It won't be that easy.

It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees getting off to a hot start the first 60 games of the season, keeping pace with Boston in the AL East and with the Angels, Mariners, Tigers and Indians in the Wild Card race. With a new manager, the core of the team re-signed and injury-free, and a dynamite bullpen highlighted by Joba and Mo, it's not inconcievable that New York could go, I dunno, 36-24 by shortening most games to 7 innings then sending in their lights-out relievers for the last 6 outs. But I find it awfully hard to believe the Yankees will then destroy that bullpen continuity by sending Joba down and having him join the rotation. It wouldn't take more than 2 or 3 Kyle Farnsworth/LaTroy Hawkins meltdowns for the Pinstripers to realize they had a pair of aces and discarded one of them.

On the flipside, say Joba struggles as a set-up man. Does a promotion from the pen to the rotation all-the-sudden seem prudent? Usually it goes the other way- a starter flounders, then becomes a reliever. Or what if they send him down, and he stinks as a starter? Does he go back to the pen, back to the minors, or does New York punt every 5th game?

And on the other flipside (yes, there are at least three sides to this particular coin), say the Yankees don't start hot. Say Pettitte and Mussina show their age, while Hughes and Kennedy show theirs and New York is at a loss for arms. Do you think the Yankees will wait until more than a third of the season is in the books to make a move? I doubt it.

Simply put, the Joba Rules are too simply put to have a snowball's chance of panning out exactly the way the Yankees want.

They're Bringin' Andy Back (Yea)!

That's what Yankee fans are likely saying after hearing the news that one of their best pitchers from 2007 and their only effective playoff hurler, Andy Pettitte, will be back in 2008.

This does change my views of what a Johan Santana trade would potentially do for the Bombers' staff. For good reason, a rotation of Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Kennedy sounds a lot more stable than one that does not include the 35-year-old, 201 game winner.

Unfortunately Pettitte and the others (Santana included or not) are still going to have to pitch with that defense.

The $antana $weepstakes Part II

The gauntlet has been thrown down and the Red Sox have answered, now saying they will include speedster Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Johan Santana. But interestingly, the Sox are not willing to deal Ellsbury and pitcher Jon Lester in the same trade. The Sox had previously put Lester and Coco Crisp in a package offer that also included a minor leaguer, but understandably, the Twins want Ellsbury. Coupled with the newly-acquired Delmon Young, Ellsbury would give Minnesota a really talented, really young outfield.

Now, the question becomes, whose offer is better? Is it New York's with Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and others? Is it Boston's with Ellsbury, a pitcher, and others? Or are they better off seeing what else is out there?

Personally, I think there are advantages and disadvantages to both deals. If the Twins go with New York's offer, they can potentially replace one ace with another, and pick up a solid defensive outfielder too, shifting Young to right. But if they go with Boston's, they will have an offense that's arguably the best in the AL Central with Ellsbury setting the table for the likes of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Young. The only downside is, they will have traded their two best starting pitchers to do it and without getting much in big-league-ready-pitching in return.

The one thing I don't see happening is Minnesota holding onto Santana, because once the season starts, I doubt they'll get many offers with this much young talent.

The $antana $weepstakes

The New York Yankees are prepared to offer the Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera, and a second tier prospect for the right to then sign Johan Santana for something in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million.

First, I have to wonder how New York can afford to do this financially after re-upping with A-Rod for as much as $305 million over 10 years, re-signing Posada for $52.4 million over 4, and Rivera for $45 million over 3 years. Let's not forget, this team also has Giambi, Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Mussina signed to very lucrative deals as well. Unless the Yanks are minting their own money in the home team dugout, conventional wisdom would tell you the well has to run dry at some point, right?

Next, money aside, I have to wonder if Santana would really make the Yankees that much better of a team, i.e. a team that can beat the Boston Red Sox and go to the World Series. If they were to send Hughes and Cabrera to Minnesota, and assuming Clemens and Pettitte retire, New York's starting rotation would still be very front-heavy. Santana and Wang would be as good a 1-2 punch as anybody, although in the playoffs, the Sox would arguably still have the upper hand with Beckett and Schilling. And after their first two starters, New York would be in basically the same situation they were in last year. Who's their number 3? Ian Kennedy? Yes, he's good and he's young, but he's thrown 19 innings in his big league career. There's simply no way of knowing how he'll hold up over 30+ starts. Is Mike Mussina their number 4? He turns 39 in a week and people hit .342 off him in the second half. Again, what will he be good for over 30 starts? And then who's the number 5? Carl Pavano? Jeff Karstens? Kei Igawa? Matt DeSalvo? Chase Wright? Like Steve Perry once sang, the list goes on and on and on and on. The only difference is, I have stopped believing.

All that's not taking into consideration the defensive hit New York would take by losing Cabrera in center and having to play Johnny Damon there. Unless they signed Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones (neither of whom would be cheap) their starting outfield would feature a trio of 34-year-olds by the All-Star Break with Matsui in left, JD in center and Abreu in right. Add to that a catcher who allowed an AL-worst 102 steals, a very average left side of the infield in Jeter and A-Rod and a gigantic question mark at first and this isn't exactly a contact pitcher's dream.

Personally, I think they'd be better served going after somebody like Dan Haren. He won't cost you as much in prospects or cash and all the sudden, you have a deeper pitching staff and a better defensive team. The Red Sox are good because they're holding onto their young talent- the same reason why the Yanks were good in mid-to-late 90's. I know there's a lot of pressure on them to one-up Boston in the Santana Sweepstakes, but there's a pretty good chance he won't be worth what New York will have to pay to get him...not like that's stopped them before.

Hip-Hip, Overpaid!

Yankee fans are likely excited that Jorge Posada is staying in the Bronx for the foreseeable future. He reportedly agreed to a 4-year, $52.4 million dollar deal with the club. I know he's coming off of arguably his best season in pinstripes (.338, 20, 90) but will the Yankees (and their fans) be as excited about this deal in 4 years when JP is 40 and making $13.1 million? To me, it seems like a high risk offering a catcher on the wrong side of 35 a contract that long and that lucrative.

Since turning 36, Mike Piazza hasn't had 400 at-bats in a season, hasn't hit over .285 and hasn't topped 70 RBI. Ivan Rodriguez turns 36 next month and is coming off a season where he posted some of the worst offensive numbers of his career (11 HR, 9 BB, .294 OBP, .420 SLG). Johnny Bench retired after the 1983 season, most of which he spent as a 35-year-old hitting .255 with 12 HR and 54 RBI. Carlton Fisk is really the only catcher in this class to post moderately good numbers after turning 35. In 1985 as a 37-year-old with the White Sox, he hit won the Silver Slugger after going 37/107 with 17 steals. But he only hit .238 and wouldn't top 500 AB's again in his career.

My guess is, this deal won't look so hot a year or two from now.

M-Cab...The New A-Rod?

Apparently the Marlins and Yankees are talking about it, although given that New York doesn't appear to be interested in parting with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, I don't see why Florida would trade their 24-year-old superstar to the Yanks, even though he is a free agent at the end of '08.

There's no question this guy is a franchise cornerstone, though. In four and a half big league seasons, he's already a career .313 hitter with 138 homeruns, 523 RBI, and an OPS of .930. If he stays put and Johan Santana does too, the '08 trading deadline has the potential to be absolutely nuts!

Hello Joe

Joe Torre is out and Joe Girardi is in as the manager of the Yankees. The deal is reportedly worth $7.5 million a year- 50% more than what they offered the guy who took them to the playoffs 12 years in a row and won 4 World Series titles.

Somebody asked me today if I thought the Yankees would make the playoffs and at this point it's really hard to know because we don't know where free agents like Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Barry Bonds, Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling (or so it seems), and others will end up.

Pitching help, which the playoffs clearly showed us they desperately need, is just not there this offseason. So if they lose Pettitte and if Clemens retires for good, Wang will be about the only sure thing in their starting rotation. Phil Hughes certainly shows signs that he is ready to be a productive big leaguer, but it will still be his first full season, so counting on him for much more than 14 wins is a stretch. And let's not forget about how difficult it will be to replace A-Rod and (potentially) Jorge Posada.

So basically they're looking at question marks at catcher, first, third, starting pitchers 3, 4, and 5, plus they need to find a closer (is Joba Chamberlain ready now?), all with a brand new manager. And it's not like Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, LA, or Seattle will be getting significantly worse.

That's why my answer was no.

One Bad Night For The Yankees

I hereby proclaim Monday, October 29th, 2007 "Hug a Yankee Fan" Day.

Let's face it, it's the right thing to do.

Not only did the Bronx bombers and their faithful have to watch their arch rivals sweep the Colorado Rockies in the World Series, but then they learned their best player, Alex Rodriguez (in the minds of some, another arch-rival) is leaving.

I think most people saw these things coming, but c'mon- both on the same night?! That's just mean!

First, to the Red Sox. Back of another strong showing by rookies Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, they held off the Rockies last night, 4-3. Mike Lowell was named World Series MVP after hitting .400 with a homerun (in the 7th inning of Game 4, no less), and 6 runs scored. Personally, I think Jonathan Papelbon should have earned the honor for his 3 saves, 0.00 ERA over 4 1/3 critical innings pitched, 3 K's and just 2 baserunners allowed. If it had gone to a 5th game and Josh Beckett dominated again, it would have been his honor. Either way, the Sox played some of their best baseball this October and look locked and loaded for 2008. For the record, Colorado hit just .218 in the World Series as a team, and scored a meager 10 runs in the 4 games.

Now to the whole Alex Rodriguez thing. Much to the delight of the Texas Rangers who no longer have to pay him, agent Scott Boras says A-Rod is going "A-Way Rod" (clever nickname copyright 2007, Baseblogger) because he's not sure how good the Yankees are going to be next year. We already know Joe Torre's not coming back. Now, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada may leave as well. It's funny to think A-Rod's leaving because of them, and now they may leave because of him.

I'm proud to say I saw this coming back in February, and I'm still inclined to think the Chicago Cubs are the front-runners to sign him. A-Rod would be the man, the Cubs offense would be the best in the league, and he and Lou Piniella are boys. I don't see how he'd fit in as a New York Met because they already have David Wright and Jose Reyes on the left side of the infield. The LA Angels would be interesting though- they could certainly use the offensive help and protection for Vlad. And what about A-Rod to the Red Sox?

Theo Epstein: "Thanks for winning the World Series MVP, Mike Lowell, but we're going to go in another direction at third next year."

Mike Lowell: "Isn't A-Rod hitless in his last 18 October at-bats with men on base?"

Theo: "..........."

Mike: "Theo, you there? Theo?"

I suppose they could flip him back to shortstop and part with Julio Lugo's .295 on base percentage, but I just don't see Red Sox nation welcoming this guy with open arms- something A-Rod clearly wants and needs.

The worst news of all for Yankee fans is, most bad things happen in threes, meaning (a) A-Rod is going to sign with Boston (b) Derek Jeter is about to be indicted on federal catfighting charges, or (c) New York is set to introduce John Rocker as their new manager.

So if you see a Yankee fan, give them a hug or a heartfelt clap on the shoulder because it's shaping up to be a long winter.

Does The House Of Cards Crumble Now?

Joe Torre turned down the New York Yankees' 1-year, $5 million dollar offer yesterday, meaning for the first time since 1995, somebody else will be their skipper on Opening Day. Torre still would have been the highest-paid manager in baseball, but it also would have been a $2.5 million dollar pay cut.

We don't yet know what impact, if any, this will have on the Yanks keeping guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte. But it's not going to help, that's for sure.

As for Torre's future managerial aspirations, his wife, Ali, left the press with this.

"It's always difficult to say goodbye, but there's always hello."

Hmmm.

The Yankees' Playoff Exit...Surprisingly Not Surprising

Let's see here...Chien Ming-Wang (about whom the number one starter debate should end for good) retired 3 batters and gave up 4 runs, Mike Mussina came in for 4 2/3 innings of gutty-but-unspectacular relief, and the Yankees came up 2 runs short against the Cleveland Indians in, what was a do-or-die Game 4 of the ALDS. I know many Yankee fans will be completely shocked at this, their third straight first-round playoff exit, but when you can't pitch, you can't win, especially when you don't hit either.

Consider this. New York pitchers in this series averaged less than 3 2/3 innings pitched per start, or not even 11 batters retired per game. They also posted an 0-2 record, 9.42 ERA, and 2.30 WHIP. Their relievers were much better, but clearly overworked, as any group would be that has to work an average of 17 hitters per night. In their 22 1/3 innings pitched this series, the Yankee "bullpen" (which included Mike Mussina and Phil Hughes) went 0-1 with a blown save, 3.63 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. Had their starters been even remotely serviceable (say an average of 5 innings a start and 3 earned) this series may have gone to a deciding game.

But the Yankee offense, which was so prolific in the regular season (.290 team average, almost 6 runs a game, 1.24 homeruns per game), was also extraordinarily disappointing. They hit just .216 in the 4 games, and that includes their 13 hits in Game 4. They also left 66 men on base, or an average of 1.78 per inning. Not surprisingly, they averaged a meager 4 runs per game.

But just as the Padres' and Mets' late season collapses are also due to the fantastic play of the Rockies and Phillies respectively, you can't pin this whole thing on New York. The Indians had a hell of a series too. Their relievers gave up just 2 earned over 13 innings. Their starters, while not dominant, averaged a quality start per start (6 IP, 3 earned), and the Tribe hit .315 with a slew of 2 out RBIs. Simply put, the Yanks got outplayed.

While you can't pin this on A-Rod (.267, 1, 1, .389 OBP, 5K, 7 LOB), or Joe Torre, I wouldn't be surprised if they're both calling different cities home next year and they're sure not to be the only ones. ESPN's Howard Bryant went as far as to say the Yankee dynasty is officially over. I'm not sure if I agree 100%, but if they lose A-Rod, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera to free agency, Clemens to retirement, and are stuck with Jason Giambi and Mussina's salaries, it might not matter if Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain remain in pinstripes.

The NLCS and ALCS open up Thursday and Friday respectively and I don't think there's any question the 4 best teams are still alive.

On A Wang And A Prayer

Yes, the New York Yankees finally looked like the New York Yankees last night at home in their 8-4 win in Game 3 of the ALDS. Or I should say, they looked like the Yankees in the second half of last night's game, because going into the bottom of the 5th, they were down 3-1 and had grounded into 3 double plays. A Johnny Damon 3-run blast and 3 2/3 innings of solid relief pitching from Phil Hughes later, they had the game well in hand. But they're not out of the woods, yet.

Now Joe Torre, whose job is officially on the line, is going with Chien Ming-Wang on 3 days rest (rather than Mike Mussina) in hopes of forcing Game 5 back in Cleveland. The Tribe will counter with Paul Byrd (rather than C.C. Sabathia on 3 days rest).

Let's not forget, Wang was roughed up in Game 1, although some have speculated it was because he had "too much rest" and so his sinker wasn't sinking the was it usually does. Either way, they need him to come up big tonight because if he if unable to go at least 7 innings, New York could be in a very precarious situation.

Phil Hughes clearly won't be available. Joba Chamberlain threw 38 pitches last night over 2 innings, so he might not be available. Torre not starting Mussina sends a clear message about the team's confidence level in him, so why would you want him relieving? That really only leaves Luis Vizciano (who took the loss in Game 2), Ross Ohlendorf (who's retired 22 big league hitters in his career, and was lit up in Game 1), Jose Veras (who has less than 21 career innings under his belt) and Kyle Farnsworth (who's thrown 8 innings since August 29 and none in the ALDS). Plus, Mariano Rivera did throw an inning last night (albeit just 10 pitches), so the odds of him throwing the 7th, 8th, and 9th seem unlikely.

On a sort-of related note, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Roger Clemens throw his last big league pitch last night and I'm definitely not alone. His hamstring is clearly bothering him. Rest clearly didn't help. So starting him again makes little sense, and getting him hot quickly to relieve makes even less. With all due respect to Clemens, who is without question one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball, his 2007 signing with New York has to rank among the worst moves in pro sports history. $28 million dollars pro-rated for 18-starts, a 6-6 record, 4.18 ERA, and 99 IP in the regular season, plus 7 hitters retired in the postseason is not much of a return on the Boss' investment.

So at 7:37 tonight, we'll see what Wang is made of in Game 4. If the answer is "not much" there probably won't be a Game 5.

Why The Yankees Are In Trouble, Already

They missed their chance.

They missed their chance worse than Kramer did on that episode of Seinfeld when he's running around New York City trying to find a place to poop, but gets mugged instead, and ends up constipated.

5 innings, 6 walks, 2 homeruns. That was ace C.C. Sabathia's line last night in Game 1 and yet all the juggernaut Yankee offense could turn that into was 3 runs...the whole game. A-Rod went hitless (although he did walk twice), Posada and Matsui combined to leave 10 guys on base, and Wang gave up 8 earned en route to a 12-3 Tribal dance.

They missed their chance.

Now, it's Carmona/Pettitte in Game 2 (where Cleveland definitely has the starting pitching advantage), followed by Westbrook/Clemens in Game 3 (where Cleveland may also have the advantage as well, depending on whether Good Roger or Bad Roger shows up).

Also on Cleveland's side- the fact that Kenny Lofton still thinks it's 1995 and that he's setting the table for Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, and Manny Ramirez. Sure he's hitting in the 7 hole now but he's still driving in guys like Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez, while playing catalyst for Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis Hafner.

Yes, just one game into the ALDS, the Yankees are in trouble. And unlike Kramer, there's no "wet and wild" solution for the Bronx Bombers.

Are The Boston Red Sox In Trouble?

This would have been a silly question to ask just a few weeks ago, but now, I'm not so sure.

After losing 8-7 last night to the New York Yankees (they had a 7-2 lead in the 8th inning) they are now just 4.5 games up in the AL East. That's the smallest their lead has been since August 19, and if New York wins again tonight, their lead will dip below 4 games for the first time since May 1. They've also dropped 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 to the Yankees.

Remember that bullpen that was supposed to be so good? Well, it's not right now. Entering the month of August, Hideki Okajima's ERA was 0.87 in 47 appearances. It's 4.80 in his 16 appearances since. Eric Gagne has an 8.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 2 blown saves in 13 appearances since coming over from Texas. This may be the most telling stat of them all for #83...he's had exactly zero 1-2-3 innings. These guys are supposed to get the team from its starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon (who blew a rare save and took the loss last night), but that's just not happening.

The Sox offense remains uneven, as well. Manny Ramirez hasn't played since August 28 because of an oblique injury, Kevin Youkilis is hitting just .231 in the second half, and they still don't have a bona fide leadoff man. This season their leadoff hitters (they've tried 8 different guys) are batting just .258 with a .321 OBP. Only the White Sox, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays have suffered lower batting averages from their leadoff men, and in terms of OBP, these four teams are all within .004 of each other. The man who's led-off the most for Boston, Julio Lugo, still has an OBP below .300 for the season and according to his splits, he's much more comfortable in the 9 hole (.331/.372 compared to .225/.287).

There's virtually no way these problems are going to be enough to keep Boston out of the playoffs completely. After all, they have a 4.5 game lead in their division with just 14 to go, and if it gets to that point, they're 8 up on Detroit for the Wild Card. But I do think these problems, if unsolved between now and October, will be enough to keep them out of the World Series, and quite possibly, out of the ALCS- quite a statement for the team with baseball's best record.

So It Begins

What's interesting about this week's three-game set between the Yankees and Red Sox, in New York, is that it will have little-to-no impact on the AL East race, even if New York wins all three. The Red Sox are eight games up at this point and even though it would give the Yankees an emotional lift if they can reduce the lead to five games, that would still be a big lead to overcome considering there will be only be 28 games left in the season. For the record, it's Dice-K against Pettitte tonight, Beckett vs. Clemens in game two, and Schilling against Wang in game three- a trio of good match-ups.

What really adds a curious wrinkle to all this (and those who know me know I love curious wrinkles) is that Seattle is clinging to a two-game lead in the Wild Card over New York and has a three-game lead over Detroit right now. Seattle has two more against the Angels before going to Cleveland for three, Toronto for three and then New York for three. That September 3-5 series could be huge.

Detroit, fresh off taking three of four from the Yanks at home, has a somewhat easy schedule the next few weeks. They have three in Kansas City, three in Oakland, then three at home against the White Sox before hosting Seattle for three September 7-9. It's the last time the Tigers and Mariners meet up in 2007, and for that matter, it's the last time Seattle, New York, and Detroit play one another at all. The Yanks still have another three games, in Boston, September 14-16 before finishing out their season with Toronto, Tampa Bay and Baltimore.

It's hard to say who has the upper hand right now because even though Seattle has the lead, they've lost three straight and are at a really tough part of their schedule. The Yankees end up with a cakewalk, but have to survive a few tough match-ups themselves to get there. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit ends up leapfrogging everybody into October.