Are The Boston Red Sox In Trouble?

This would have been a silly question to ask just a few weeks ago, but now, I'm not so sure.

After losing 8-7 last night to the New York Yankees (they had a 7-2 lead in the 8th inning) they are now just 4.5 games up in the AL East. That's the smallest their lead has been since August 19, and if New York wins again tonight, their lead will dip below 4 games for the first time since May 1. They've also dropped 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 to the Yankees.

Remember that bullpen that was supposed to be so good? Well, it's not right now. Entering the month of August, Hideki Okajima's ERA was 0.87 in 47 appearances. It's 4.80 in his 16 appearances since. Eric Gagne has an 8.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 2 blown saves in 13 appearances since coming over from Texas. This may be the most telling stat of them all for #83...he's had exactly zero 1-2-3 innings. These guys are supposed to get the team from its starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon (who blew a rare save and took the loss last night), but that's just not happening.

The Sox offense remains uneven, as well. Manny Ramirez hasn't played since August 28 because of an oblique injury, Kevin Youkilis is hitting just .231 in the second half, and they still don't have a bona fide leadoff man. This season their leadoff hitters (they've tried 8 different guys) are batting just .258 with a .321 OBP. Only the White Sox, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays have suffered lower batting averages from their leadoff men, and in terms of OBP, these four teams are all within .004 of each other. The man who's led-off the most for Boston, Julio Lugo, still has an OBP below .300 for the season and according to his splits, he's much more comfortable in the 9 hole (.331/.372 compared to .225/.287).

There's virtually no way these problems are going to be enough to keep Boston out of the playoffs completely. After all, they have a 4.5 game lead in their division with just 14 to go, and if it gets to that point, they're 8 up on Detroit for the Wild Card. But I do think these problems, if unsolved between now and October, will be enough to keep them out of the World Series, and quite possibly, out of the ALCS- quite a statement for the team with baseball's best record.