The Rest Of The Way Home

Unless the Yankees sweep the Red Sox (again) this weekend at Fenway, it's probably safe to say Boston has the AL East locked up at this point. They have a 5 game lead right now with 2 more games against Tampa, the New York series (which is 3 games), and 3 each on the road against the Jays and Rays, before finishing up at home with 2 against Oakland and 4 against Minnesota. Of their 17 remaining games, only 3 are against teams with any hope of playing in October.

As for the Yankees, they're 3.5 up on Detroit for the Wild Card and 5.5 up on all-but-irrelevant Seattle. New York begins a 6-game road trip tonight in Toronto before heading to Boston for 3. The Orioles come to the Bronx for 3 and the Jays visit for 4 before they finish up on the road at Tampa and at Baltimore. Like the Sox, the Yanks only have 3 games out of their last 19 against potential playoff teams, and those games are this weekend.

In the Central, Cleveland is 6 up on Detroit right now but those two teams do have 3 more against each other, in Cleveland. First, the Tribe has 2 more at Chicago, then they're home for 3 with Kansas City. After the Detroit series, Oakland comes to town for 3 before they head out to Seattle for 4 and Kansas City for 3. 8 of their remaining games 18 games are against the Royals or White Sox. They should be fine.

In the West, LA is 8.5 up on Seattle. They'll probably be the first team in baseball to clinch considering their remaining schedule includes the Orioles, White Sox, Devil Rays, Mariners, Texas, and Oakland. My guess is, Seattle will have virtually no shot at the AL West crown by the time their September 20th series rolls around.

Speaking of Seattle, they're now gunning for the Wild Card and not going about it too well. They're 5.5 back of the Yankees right now, they've lost 14 of their last 16, have 2 more at home with the A's, 4 with the Rays, then they go to Oakland for 3 and to Los Angeles for 4, before returning home for 4 games with Cleveland and 3 with Texas. The M's are playing horribly right now and that schedule won't help. They'll probably be on the outside, looking in.

That leaves Detroit. They're 3.5 back of the Yankees, and just lost Jeremy Bonderman for the season. But, aside from those 3 games in Cleveland, they have a relatively easy schedule- Texas, at Minnesota, Kansas City, Minnesota, and at Chicago. In the unlikely event the Yankees falter, Detroit could make it interesting.

In the NL East, the Mets really have a chance to pull away from the Phillies for good, this week. They're 6 up right now, with two more against the Braves before this weekend's series. After that, it's a cake-walk...at Washington and Florida, at home against Washington, one against the Cardinals, then three more with the Marlins. If the Phillies don't sweep, the division should be theirs. If they do, it will get really interesting. More on the Phils in a minute.

The Central race is the closest in baseball. Either the Cubs or Brewers will likely hold off the other guy (they're both 73-70 right now), while the other guy is left out of the postseason. But the Cardinals (3 back) could play the role of spoiler. The Cubbies have 3 at Houston, 4 at St. Louis (which will be huge), then they play the Reds, Pirates at home, and finish up at Florida and Cincinnati.

The Brewers have a tougher schedule the rest of the way, with series against the Cardinals (3 at home), and Padres (4 at home) as their last 7 games of 2007. Before that, they need to finish their series at Pittsburgh, host Cincinnati and go to Houston and Atlanta.

The Cardinals control their own destiny more than anyone but their schedule is also tougher than anyone's. They're at the Reds, host Cubs, Phillies and Houston before gong to Milwaukee, New York for one, and finishing up in Pittsburgh- a very tough road.

The West race has the D-Backs back on top of the Pads by 3.5 with the Dodgers 6 back and taking on water. Arizona has two more at San Fran, 3 more at LA, then 3 at home each with those two clubs before finishing up at Pittsburgh and Colorado. I like their chances.

San Diego has the Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Rockies, Giants and Brewers before it's all over. I imagine they'll hold on to the Wild Card, unless the Phillies sweep the Mets this weekend.

Speaking of the Phils, they're only 1.5 back in the Wild Card, but have the Mets and Cardinals on their schedule. To counteract that though, they also have 7 of their last 19 against the Nationals, so they could make it interesting.

And the Dodgers, 2.5 back for the Wild Card, have San Diego and Arizona twice on their schedule, meaning their fate, gloomy as it seems right now, rests in their own hands to a certain extent.

Hard to imagine there's less than 3 weeks left!