Sunday, September 9, 2007

Chris B. Having A Strange Year

.238 batting average, 28 homeruns, 24 steals, .294 on base percentage...these are numbers that just don't go together all that often. Yet for Chris "The Statistical Anomaly" B. Young this is his 2007.

What's important here is the fact that he could go 30-30, despite an OBP below .300. Entering Sunday, the D-Backs have 19 games remaining. Based on his performance to date, Young should get about 78 more plate appearances. If he does, and hits at least 2 homeruns, steals at least 6 bases, and doesn't reach base more than 28 times, he'll finish up 30-30, sub-.300.

So I asked myself, "self, has this ever happened before?" Not knowing the answer off the top of my head, I did a little research. And here's what I found.

*Alfonso Soriano came awfully close just two years ago when he went .268, 36, 33, .309 for the Texas Rangers.

*I thought I'd found a winner when I stumbled upon Preston Wilson's 2000 season, where he hit 31, stole 36, and punched out 187 times for the Marlins. But his OBP was .331! Not bad for a guy who wiffed that much.

*Jose Canseco warrants mention for his 1998 season with Toronto. He hit 46, stole 29, batted just .237, but had an OBP of .318.

*Sammy Sosa had a very "Alfonso Soriano" 1993 (or maybe it was Soriano who had a very "Sammy Sosa" year, 12 years later) going .261, 33, 36, .309 for the Cubbies.

*Despite a .251 batting average in 1991, Ron Gant hit 32 homeruns, stole 34 bases, and had an OBP of .338.

*Joe Carter came just a few walks shy of the mark in 1987 for the Tribe. His numbers were .264, 32, 31, .304.

*Despite being just a career .268 hitter, and a 30-30 machine in the late 60s and 70s (he did it 5 times), Bobby Bonds never came close to a .300 OBP.

*Baseball had a 34-year "30-30 drought" from the time Ken Williams did it in 1922 (he was the first ever) to the time Willie Mays did it in 1956. Neither got close to a .300 OBP.

*In 1920, George Sisler's batting average was .407 the year he hit 49 doubles, 18 triples, 19 homeruns and stole 42 bases.

*Before 1920, no players hit 30 homeruns in a season. Usually 20 or fewer led the majors.

So what does this tell us? Well, it tells us Chris B. Young has the chance to accomplish something no player has in the history of baseball: a 30-30 season with an OBP of less than .300. He also has a chance to set the new mark for worst batting average in a 30-30 season. Gant's .251 is worst right now, however if Canseco stole one more base in '98, he'd own that distinction with a .237 mark which would have put him and Young in a real dogfight.

I don't know what that means for the rest of Young's career, though. You have to be pretty good to go 30-30 and pretty bad to get 600 plate appearances and not reach at least 180 times. Either way, I'm going to be rooting for (and I suppose, against) him these last three weeks.

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