Former A's On The Move

2004 AL ROY Bobby Crosby inked a one-year-deal to play in baseball purgatory (Pittsburgh) next season.  As an Oakland fan, I wish him well and wish him good health most of all.  But at this point, he's probably fortunate to get a guaranteed big league contract above the minimum pay rate.  Including 2004 he has played in 100+ games just twice.  Since that year, he has yet to hit double digit homeruns again and his career OBP is .305 in more than 2,600 plate appearances.  More than once this decade, I've said during an offseason, "if Bobby Crosby can just get 600 AB's this year..."  Now, I wonder if the numbers would even be worth the wait.  Despite all that, I'd love to see him hit .270 with 25 bombs for the Pirates in 2010.

Another oft-injured A, Rich Harden, appears headed to one of the busiest teams this winter- Texas.  He would effectively replace Kevin Millwood in the rotation and if healthy (which is kind of like saying if Democrats and Republicans would just agree on a direction for health care reform...) he could anchor the staff on a dangerous Ranger club which will also feature, apparently, former Bostonian Mike Lowell playing somewhere in the infield.  Harden is the ultimate talent tease- so good when he's in service, but rarely in service for an extended period of time.  The 28-year-old has averaged 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched for his career.  He also has a 3.39 ERA and .220 BAA over 750+ innings pitched.  For a frame of reference, these numbers are better than Johan Santana's career stats (granted, smaller sample size).  Had Harden racked up these totals over, say, four seasons, we'd be talking about a potential future Hall of Famer.  Problem is, it's taken Richie Rich parts of seven seasons to do it.  So the Rangers will hold their breath, roll the dice, and get the ice machine ready for #40.

C.C. And Richie Rich

With the trade deadline still 22 days away, we've already seen two potentially race-changing deals involving two potential Game 1 World Series starters...C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Matt LaPorta and 3 other prospects, and Rich Harden to the Cubs along with reliever Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher and 3 other prospects.

The Cubs were the better team before these deals were completed and because they made a better trade than Milwaukee did, should be the better team the rest of the season (and next year).

Yes, Harden carries an injury risk. But ever since missing a month with a strained shoulder muscle, he's been healthy, he's been as good as anybody, and in general his ceiling is much higher than Sabathia's. True, Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young award winner and true, he is a workhorse, but all things being equal, Harden has Santana-esque stuff without Santana-esque mileage on his arm, whereas Sabathia is "7 innings pitched, 3 earned, 7 K's, 2 walks" good.

Another reason the Cubs made the better trade is because, unlike Sabathia, they're not renting Harden for the next 2 and a half months. Harden's deal doesn't expire until 2009 and being the bigger-market team, the Cubs have a much better chance of re-upping with him than the Brew-Crew does with Sabathia.

And the final reason the Cubs made out better is because unlike Milwaukee, they didn't give up any front-line prospects to make their move. Matt LaPorta could be a poor man's Ryan Braun, and soon. Add him to Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, and Cleveland's lineup could be in pretty good shape for the forseeable future. The Cubs gave up Gallagher, speedster Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson- none of whom were big pieces of the Chicago puzzle this year, although Gallagher has the best pedigree.

That's not to say that the A's got a bunch of chumps, though. In Gallagher, they get a strikeout-an-inning guy who will likely benefit from his move to the pitcher-friendly Bay Area. Patterson may take over for Mark Ellis in a year or so, Murton gives them a strong arm and bat to play alongside youngsters Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez in the Oakland outfield, and Donaldson is still a few years away.

Say what you will about "Moneyball" and Billy Beane. But as an A's fan, I definitely don't hate this trade. Beane has a knack for getting rid of good pitchers at just the right time. For proof, see Mulder, Mark...Hudson, Tim...and Zito, Barry. He got good value for each of those guys, as he did for Dan Haren last winter. Now, he sells Harden when he's healthy and his value is at its highest and although he didn't get a blue-chip prospect, he did get four serviceable players in return.

What'll be really interesting to see now is (a) if Oakland moves any other players (Huston Street?, Joe Blanton?) and (b) if St. Louis makes any moves in the next 3 weeks to keep up with the Joneses in the division. After all, they're just 3.5 back (a half game up on the Brewers) and starting to get their pitchers healthy.

One final thought. What's going through your head if you're a hitter on the lowly Reds, Pirates, or Astros right now?

Rich Predictions, With Conditions

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.

Huston, We Have A Problem

Major League Baseball's regular season is underway in Japan, and it's off to a start Oakland A's closer Huston Street would like to forget. He blew the save in the 9th when he gave up Brandon Moss' first career homerun, a game-tying shot. Then in the 10th, he gave up a 2-run double to Manny Ramirez (Manny's second of the game) and Oakland went on to lose 6-5.

While I'm bashing Street, Jonathan Papelbon's debut in the Far East was nothing to write home about either. He nearly blew the save himself in the bottom of the 10th, allowing a run-scoring double to Emil Brown (Oakland's version of Manny Ramirez, I'm sad to say). The A's actually had the tying run on second and the winning run on first when JP got Kurt Suzuki to ground out, bringing an end to the ballgame.

Game 2 is tomorrow at 6:05 A.M. Eastern and it's an intriguing starting pitching matchup...Jon Lester for the Sox, Rich Harden for the A's. Oakland is still considered the "home" team for that one. After that, the next real game is March 30 when the Braves visit the Nats' new stadium on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. And on Monday, there are 14 regular season games.

Other performances of note from today's game...

Jack Cust, 0-4, 4 K's

Jason Varitek, 0-4, 3 K's

Travis Buck, 0-5, 2 K's

Daric Barton, 0-2, 3 BB, 2 R

Jack Hannahan, 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Dice-K, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's

Not So On The Money (Ball)

I'm as big an Oakland A's fan and Billy Beane fan as there is. Although this season will be painful, I like the fact that he sold high on what talent he had left and reloaded for 2010.

But it's time to face the facts.

Five and a half years after the much-ballyhooed 2002 draft and four years after the release of "Moneyball," the book chronicling Oakland's spendthrift ways and outside-the-box thinking, the seven guys they took in the first round that year, with a few exceptions, weren't all that special.

With the 16th overall pick, they took Nick Swisher...no arguments there. He's a solid player, has 80 career homeruns and a .361 OBP in, what amounts to 3 big league seasons. Plus, his batting average has gone up each year he's been in the league. I hate to see him go to the White Sox, but they got a lot in return for him. High schoolers Cole Hamels, James Loney, and Jeff Francoeur went right after him, though.

With the 24th pick, they took Joe Blanton. He's a solid number 3 starter, but probably will never be an All-Star, probably will never win more than 17 games and probably will never have an ERA below 3.50. He's definitely durable though, having made almost 100 starts in the last 3 years. During that time, he's 8 games over .500 with an ERA just above 4.00. Matt Cain was the next player taken.

With the 26th pick, they took John McCurdy, an infielder from the University of Maryland. He was released by the club last April and had a career .302 OBP in more than 1700 career minor league at-bats, mostly below double-A. A tremendous college player, but not "the next Jeff Kent" as the book predicted.

A few picks later at 30, they took Benjamin Fritz, a pitcher from Fresno State. He went 11-11 at double-A last year with a 5.67 ERA, 88 strikeouts, 68 walks, and 6 wild pitches in nearly 150 IP and has yet to appear in the major leagues.

With the 35th pick, the A's took Alabama catcher Jeremy Brown, noted as being "huge in the ass" in the book- thus the reason he was overlooked. Brown just retired from baseball a few days ago, despite hitting .276 with 14 homers at triple-A last year. He went 3 for 10 with 2 doubles, a run scored, and a walk in a brief stint with the big club in '06.

At 37, the A's took Stephen Obenchain, a pitcher from the University of Evansville. He, too was released last season and played in the Independent League in '07. He never made it past double-A, and owns a 19-20 career record in 96 minor league games (52 starts) along with a 4.15 ERA.

And finally, their last first-round pick at 39, was Mark Teahen, who's now with the Kansas City Royals. An outfielder now because of Alex Gordon, he had a nice 2006 season, going .290/18/69 with 10 steals in less than 400 ABs, but his 2007 was a pretty big disappointment. In 150 more at-bats, he hit 11 fewer homeruns, drove in 9 less, saw his slugging percentage dip more than 100 points and walked just 15 more times. He's still slated to be KC's Opening Day right fielder.

So out of their 7 picks, 3 players are big league starters (although none have won major awards or been selected to an All-Star team), 3 have yet to see an inning of action in the majors, one had a cup of coffee, and only two are still in the Oakland organization. Sounds like a pretty typical draft to me.

The Jokeland Athletics

While I have devoted a great deal of time to chronicling the Baltimore Orioles efforts, futile as they might be, to avoid a 10th straight losing season, I have largely neglected a team that is not much better this year, and seems to be approaching a dubious mark themselves, the Oakland Athletics. This team has not had a losing season since 1998, but is now just 30 losses away from finishing below .500 (and possibly last in the AL West).

This year, the A's have Dan Haren, and that's about it. Rich Harden is hurt (again). Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby have struggled mightily (again). Their bullpen (Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer specifically) has been an injured mess. Nick Swisher, who had such a promising 2006, has regressed big time. And Mike Piazza is not this year's Frank Thomas.

As has become a seemingly annual tradition, they've still enjoyed several "out of nowhere" performances from guys like Alan Embree (10 saves), Jack Cust (17 homeruns), Chad Gaudin (8 wins, 3.35 ERA), and Santiago Casilla (0.70 ERA in 20 appearances). But even with those contributions, this team is not close to being competitive, even though this is usually the time of year when the A's get healthy and get hot. Last night, they were shutout for the 5th time this season, they're fresh off a 9-game-losing streak that spanned parts of both halves, and they're 5-13 in the month of July.

What's ironic is that their trademark pitching and defense has been just as good as it was a year ago, when they won 93 games and the division. Their .985 fielding percentage is 11th best in baseball (it was .986 last year, good for 3rd overall), and their staff ERA (3.73) is best in the league and second best in baseball (it was 4.21 in 2006).

The problem this year is that the offense is a little worse and the bullpen is much worse. After blowing just 20 saves all of last year, they've blown 15 already in '07 (only three teams have blown more) and they're tied with (ironically) the Orioles for the 5th worst save conversion percentage at 58%. As far as the hitters are concerned, no American League team has scored fewer runs (they were 16th last year), their .249 team average is 5th worst in baseball (it was .260 in '06) and they're still doing nothing to manufacture runs. They're 26th in stolen bases (23rd a year ago), dead last in sacrifice bunts (27th last year) and have hit into 98 double plays, worst in baseball for the second straight year.

Add that up, and it explains why they're 11.5 out in the West and 12 back of the Wild Card. It turns out the difference between going 93-69 versus 76-86 isn't very big. It's just that all the games the A's won 4-3 last year, they're losing 3-2 this year.

I'll Bet You Didn't Know...

The Oakland A's set a record this afternoon against the Baltimore Orioles. Their pitchers haven't allowed a first inning run in any of their first 20 games of the season. That's never happened before, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. And Oakland starters have also gone 18 straight games without allowing more than 3 earned runs, tying the 1998 Cleveland Indians (which wasn't a particularly dominant staff by the way- Nagy, Colon, Dave Burba, Jaret Wright).

What's remarkable is that the A's are doing this without Barry Zito and with Rich Harden now on the DL. Guys like Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy, and today, Dallas Braden (pictured) are shouldering the load.

Billy Beane, phone call on line one. It's Brian Cashman. Something about a trade offer.

Remember The Big Three?

Most Oakland A's fans remember the days of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. But now it seems this once-dominant trio of aces has been reduced to shadows of their former, up-and-coming selves. And interestingly, all three enter this season with a lot to prove.

The Rise Of The Big Three...
Back in 2000, a diminutive, relatively unknown, 24-year-old righty named Tim Hudson went 20-6 for the AL West champion Athletics in just his first full season in the big leagues.

The following season two other youngsters, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, both of whom were also in their first full seasons on the big club, emerged as top-notch starters as well and the Big Three was born. Hudson improved in nearly every category except wins (he still won 18) and the A's won the wild card. The trio combined to win 56 games, with 21 of them coming from Mulder. Each one of them posted sub-3.50 ERAs, and not one of them was over the age of 25.

In 2002, it was Zito's turn to reach the 20-win plateau. Not only did he reach it, but he exceeded it, notching 24 victories, to go along with a 2.75 ERA and a Cy Young award. For the third year in a row, Hudson improved across the board, but the bullpen had a knack for coughing up his solid performances and he finished with just 15 wins. Mulder won 19. The A's won the division again. And again, not one of them had an ERA over 3.50.

In 2003, the Big Three was alive and well again, even though they didn't have a 20-game-winner. Hudson earned 16 W's, and posted a career-low 2.70 ERA. Zito finished a somewhat disappointing 14-12, but he did post a respectable 3.30 ERA. Mulder's win total dipped too (down to 15) despite a career best 3.13 ERA. He also led the league in complete games. But a hip injury limited him to 26 starts and he missed the playoffs, and the A's were sent packing in the first round for the fourth year in a row. Still, at the end of the season Hudson was 28, Mulder was 26, and Zito was 25, and optimism was high going into 2004.

...And Then The Fall
2004 was the beginning of the end. The A's missed the playoffs. Hudson missed time with an oblique injury and posted a career low win total (12) while his ERA shot up almost a whole run. Zito and Mulder's ERA's ballooned as well to 4.48 and 4.43 respectively. Zito also posted an unforgettable 11-11 record. And even though he won 17 games, Mulder was simply awful down the stretch, going 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 12 starts.

That's when Oakland GM Billy Beane decided to mix things up. He shipped Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for starter Dan Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and minor league catcher Daric Barton (a deal that looks completely lopsided today). And he sent Hudson to the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Charles Thomas, pitcher Juan Cruz, and minor league pitcher Dan Meyer. Zito was the only member of the Big Three to survive the 2004 off-season.

To put it into perspective, here's the average, full season these guys posted together as the Big Three:

Tim Hudson (2000-2004) 16 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Mark Mulder (2001-2004) 18 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Barry Zito (2001-2004) 16W, 3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

And here's what they've done since:

Hudson with Atlanta (05, 06) 13.5 W, 4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Mulder with St. Louis (05, 06) 11 W, 4.74 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Zito with Oakland (05, 06) 15 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Zito has clearly been the most consistent of the bunch. He's the only one who hasn't visited the DL since their forced break-up. And he has yet to miss a start in his 7-year-career. But it still looks like his "breakout" 2002 performance was a career best, not a preview of things to come. Hudson's return to his home state of Georgia simply hasn't been the feel-good story lots of people expected. He's been hurt, he's been wild, and he just hasn't been that number one starter he was in Oakland. As for Mulder, he had a solid 2005, and started off okay in 2006, but then suffered a horrid May and June. The Cards shut him down for a month, he made two more bad starts, then they shut him down for good in September. He had rotator cuff surgery later that month.

Looking Ahead
Despite reports that the Braves tried to trade him this off-season, Hudson says he's ready to prove his doubters wrong. And he has plenty of them. He turns 32 this season, he had an injury-free season last year, and his strikeout total went up. But his WHIP has increased each of the last four years and it's hard to ignore his career worst 4.86 ERA. He also gave up 25 gopher balls, perhaps a sign his two-seamer isn't sinking as much as it once did.

Mulder has to prove that he can be a productive big league pitcher again, after major arm surgery. He's not expected to return to the mound until July and we probably won't get a true sense for how good he will, or won't be, until 2008. He's never been a big strikeout guy, and a stitched-up shoulder probably won't help that improve.

Then there's Zito. Entering 2007, he's slated to start Opening Day again, just for a different Bay Area team. And after signing a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal a few months ago, it's up to him to show he's at least moderately close to worth it. I'd imagine another 15-win season with a near 4.00 ERA might not be enough. And of course if he does get hurt, the critics who said his deal was outrageous, will only give themselves a collective pat on the back.

There's no denying that so far, these guys pitched much better when they were all on the same team. But there's also no denying that their past success as the Big Three will always leave people wondering if this is the year when they revert back to their old form and flirt with 20 wins again.