Rich Predictions, With Conditions

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.