I've Had My Phil

Well, the Phillies are the champs, and despite the concerns of some fans in the City of Brotherly Love, Game 5 in all its suspended glory was every bit as dramatic and climactic as it would have been had it been completed Monday night. The pile on the mound was just as enthusiastic and the champagne was just as cold (I assume), so relax, naysayers.

As for individual players, you have to acknowledge the performance of Brad Lidge. A guy whose career as a dominant 9th inning man seemed all-but-over a few seasons ago is now alive and well, following a 48-for-48 season concerting saves including the postseason. He's not a Dennis Eckersley kind of closer. He's going to put guys on base and he's going to give up runs, but he's also going to pitch out of trouble and make hitters (Eric Hinske) look like they've never seen a slider before. For him to bounce back and do so in such convincing fashion speaks volumes about his character.

Speaking of character, they didn't talk about it at all during the game, but did anyone else see B.J. Upton not bust it out of the box on his double-play grounder in the 8th? This was a huge play in the game. The Rays were down a run and J.C. Romero gave up a leadoff single. So Upton had a chance to, at the very least, put a lightning-quick guy (Carl Crawford) in scoring position with one out and the heart of the order due up. But instead, he hit a weak grounder to short and, in my estimation, was not at top speed when the throw hit Ryan Howard's glove. Had this been just about any other hitter, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt, but since it's Upton, a guy who was benched multiple times this season for lack of hustle, I have to wonder what in the hell was going through his head. For someone who is allegedly one of the fastest runners in baseball, he grounded into 13 double plays during the regular season, plus 4 more in 5 World Series games. That's more than noted sloths Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Kevin Milar, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. It's also way more than his younger brother Justin, who hit into just 3 twin-killings in 417 plate appearances and his teammate Akinori Iwamura, who grounded into only 2 double plays in more than 700 plate appearances (yet Iwamura stole 8 bases this year compared to Upton's 44). Bottom line, while it wasn't as blatant, he tanked it again and on the biggest stage posible. Mark my words, this guy is not going to end up being as big of a superstar as everybody thinks.

Pat Burrell also didn't run hard on his leadoff double in the 7th because he thought he'd hit a go-ahead homerun, but in his defense, you don't want to make the first out at third in that situation. Plus, although perhaps not fairly, it's forgiven because pinch runner Eric Bruntlett ended up scoring.

This was also the first time I got to see David Price pitch live and I must say- wow. Mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can throw arm side and extension side, and that slider. His only downfall in '09, I fear, will be the leash the Rays keep him on with regards to innings and pitches thrown, and to a lesser extent occasionally spotty control.

Given everything he's been through this year, I also thought it was a nice moment when Rocco Baldelli hit a game-tying homerun off Ryan Madson in the top of the 7th. You have to wonder if Baldelli will have a more memorable moment in a career that's certain to be cut short. It's too bad for him that this bit hit was rendered meaningless in the bottom half of the inning.

Finally, for all the talk about matchups, bullpens, and shortening an already short Game 5 Wednesday night, did anybody else notice that no reliever had a 1-2-3 inning? A total of 7 different guys pitched 6 half-innings and not one of them could retire each guy he faced. I guess when it's all on the line and the wind chill is 25, even the best of the best become human.

In closing- good for the Phillies and good for Philadelphia. They were my favorite to win it all at the start of October (although I had them beating the Sox) and for many of the reasons I've previously highlighted (big boppers, speedsters, best bullpen, hottest starting pitcher), they made me look like I know what I'm talking about. I'm sure '09 will afford many opportunities for me to re-insert my foot in my mouth.

This Is Big

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

300

That's how many posts I've completed on the ol' Baseblogg in its year and three quarters of existence. And it's also the topic of this particular post.

.300 is largely considered to be the gold standard among hitters. And while it's a ridiculous notion that a .299 hitter is somehow a much worse hitter than somebody who hit a point higher, there's just something about that first number being a 3 that resonates with fans, sportswriters, agents, and potential suitors.

This year's batting champs, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones, hit .328 and .364 respectively. Additionally, Mauer was one of 17 AL hitters to meet or exceed the magic number, while Jones was one of 14 in the senior circuit. When you add the 3 hitters who were traded mid-season but combined to hit .300 in all their at-bats this season (Manny Ramirez hit .332, Mark Teixeira hit .308, and Xavier Nady hit .305), that means just 34 of the qualifying 147 big league hitters this season were .300 hitters (apologies to Ryan Ludwick and his .299). 34 of 147 works out to 23.1%.

Just for fun, I looked at the last few years in the big leagues, and interestingly, the numbers are fairly consistent. Last year, 40 players hit .300 while 162 qualified (24.7%), the year before it was 38 out of 160 (23.8%), and in 2005 it was 33 of 148 (22.2%). 2004's rate was 22.3%, 2003's was 24.2%, and 2002's was 23.1%. In the few years after that, the ratio is a little closer to 30%, but I'm inclined to think something that rhymes with "beeroids" might have been afoot then.

So right now in the big leagues, less than a quarter of the hitters in the big leagues are considered "good hitters" if a "good hitter" to you is one who gets a hit at least 3 out of every 10 at bats- just something extra to ponder while you're watching the Sox and the Sox tonight.

My World Series

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.