NL East: The Mets Can't Blow It Again This Year, Right?

Probably not. Then again, that's what everybody said about their 7 game lead with 17 to go back in September and we all know how that one ended. But there's a good reason why they won't close out the season 5-12 this year and miss the playoffs by one game- Johan Santana.

By adding the best pitcher on the planet (sorry Josh Beckett fans), by cutting ties with a no-longer-effective Tom Glavine, and by (hopefully) enjoying Pedro Martinez's services for the entire year, New York's starting pitching should be remarkably better in '08 than it was in '07 (don't forget about John Maine either). At the very least, it should be 2 games better, which would would have been enough to keep the Phillies home in October, rather than the other way around. In addition to adding Johan, New York returns basically the same team that won 88 games a season ago- David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou- they're all still here. They've changed catchers (out goes Paul Lo Duca, in comes Brian Schneider, the net result of which is negligible), and have Ryan Church instead of a combination of Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge in the outfield, so a little speed is gone, but these guys are still going to score a lot and play good defense.

The Phillies will score a ton or runs too, largely thanks to the best offensive infield in baseball. They have arbitration record-setter Ryan Howard at first, Chase Utley at second, reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins at short, and even though they could have Abbott and Costello platooning at third, they have the occasionally useful Pedro Feliz instead. They'll definitely miss Aaron Rowand's glove and bat in the center, which will now be manned by the speedy Shane Victornio, and rightfielder Geoff Jenkins is another newcomer. Brad Lidge will get the first crack at 9th inning duties, but something tells me a homer-prone closer in a homer-prone home ballpark is not a good fit. Having Brett Myers back in the rotation and having Kyle "Thank God I Wasn't Traded To Japan" Kendrick for a full year should help make ace Cole Hamels job a little less stressful. Overall though, I just feel like the Phillies aren't a whole lot better than they were last year (granted they were a playoff team), while the Mets added the biggest prize of the offseason to a team that should have finished in first place to begin with. But if Johan is less-than-spectacular, if Pat Burrell has two halves like his second half, if Lidge is money, and if Howard and Utley both get 600+ ABs, this could be a very interesting race.

The rest of the division lags really far behind these two teams. Atlanta will get a big contract year out of Mark Teixeira, then he'll be a Yankee in '09. The Bravos are replacing Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria with Mark Kotsay and Yunel Escobar. John Smoltz turns 41 in May. Tom Glavine turns 42 in March. And even though Tim Hudson had his best season in 4 years, they still don't have a tested closer. Bobby Cox is a genius, but .500 would be an accomplishment especially considering 22% of their games this season, including 12 of their last 15 are against New York or Philadelphia. It would have been hard to imagine during their run of 14 in a row, but the Braves will miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight time this year.

And in the battle for who wants last place the least, we have the Nationals and Marlins- two teams with virtually anonymous starting pitching staffs, and two teams who will be beaten up time and time again in '08. The Nats have a new ballpark, but basically the same team that lost 89 games last season. Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge are their two most significant new faces. Although Ryan Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns, and possibly even Wily Mo Pena will benefit from Nationals Park's more hitter-friendly environment.

Florida may put more potential talent on the field than Washington this season, but after dealing away Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for, among others, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, this team looks awfully young and awfully inexperienced. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are nearly as good an offensive middle infield combo as Rollins and Utley, Jeremy Hermida is showing promise, and Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are serviceable. But this pitching staff simply is not. Their Opening Day starter in '08, Scott Olsen, went 10-15 and allowed almost 16 baserunners per 9 innings last year.

Here's the breakdown...

New York 95-67
Philadelphia 91-71
Atlanta 78-84
Washington 73-89
Florida 70-92