...but even if I had $2.3 million dollars, I'm not sure I'd use it to buy a baseball card, even if it's the rarest baseball card in history. You can't display it, because any number of bad things can happen.
-Someone spills a drink on it
-Someone steals it
-It gets too much sunlight
-Your dog eats it
So that pretty much means you need to keep it under a velvet cover, in a locked room, guarded by pit bulls/ninjas/one of each, for the rest of your life. And what's the fun in that?
I used to be an avid collector, and I remember seeing one of the Honus Wagner 1909s at a card show once. But I'm just not sure if I see the appeal. Maybe the new buyer sees it as an investment, because it has more than quintupled in value since in the last 15 years. And it is a good conversation starter, if you're a jerk.
"Would you like to see my $2.3 million dollar baseball card collection? It's just one card. (rich guy laugh) Ah, ah, aaaaaah!"
As someone who's participated in a fair share of fantasy drafts, I have a pretty good idea of how this year's draft will go.
But I also know that this year, like every year, there are going to be a few things that we just won't know until we're well into the draft, and in some cases, well into the season. So here is my list of top five fantasy draft question marks.
#5. Who's closing and who's best?
ESPN says it's K-Rod. Last year's numbers say it's Joe Nathan and history says it's Mariano Rivera. By the way, B.J. Ryan had the best ERA (1.37) out of all of them! Personally, I think you have to factor in the teams these guys are closing for, and how many opportunities they'll likely get. That, in my mind, gives K-Rod the clear edge as the guy who should go first. That's a much easier question to answer than "who will get the most save chances for the Red Sox?" A handful of guys are competing for that job (Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez) which means there's no clear-cut favorite. There's also some debate in Cincinnati, Florida, and Kansas City. Cheap saves are always a great thing to find on the waiver wire, and there's absolutely no way to know who they're going to come from, without checking every day (remember Joe Borowski and Salomon Torres last year?).
#4. How far does A-Rod slide?
As I've said before, you can probably get A-Rod with the 4th, 5th, or even 6th pick this year, but likely not much later. His .290, 113 R, 35 HR, 121 RBI, 15 SB season a year ago left a lot of people disappointed (mostly people who took him before Albert Pujols, and finished 9th in their 12-team league). Pujols is the consensus number one this year, but how many other people will go before Alex? Johan Santana is the closest thing to Pujols among starting pitchers; dominant and consistent. Jose Reyes seems like this year's trendy choice for his combination of speed, power and run-scoring ability. It's hard to ignore Ryan Howard's 58 HR and 149 RBI. Alfonso Soriano went 40-40 and joined a much better offensive team over the winter. And Chase Utley is a stud at a very thin position. Heck, A-Rod might not even be the first third baseman taken in your league. David Wright is awfully good (.311, 96, 26, 116, 20) and Miguel Cabrera is awfully good (.339, 112, 26, 114, 9) and the difference between those guys and A-Rod is they're 24, while he's 31.
#3. Mark Prior?The mere mention of his name has become a question in and of itself. I know a lot of people have given up on this guy, and for good reason. Yes, he's been on the DL 8 times in 5 seasons. Yes, he went 1-6 with an ERA over 7.00 in 9 starts last season before the Cubs put him on dry-dock. But the ghost of 2003 still lingers in some owners' minds. He turns 27 in September, he says he's healthy, so far it looks like he's healthy, and if he is, and stays that way, look out. ESPN has him 233rd overall (after Anibel Sanchez, and before Daniel Cabrera) and MLB.com has him as the 48th best pitcher (after Scott Olsen and before Tim Hudson). Nobody knows how he'll fare in 2007, but I know this much, he'll either get taken way too early, or way too late in your league.
#2. When do all the rookies go, and how will they do?
Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Homer Bailey, Phillip Hughes, Chris Young (not the tall guy on the Padres), and Kevin Kouzmanoff...you'll probably hear all these names called on draft day. Some will be good, some will be really disappointing. The key is picking this year's Hanley Ramirez, rather than this year's Jeremy Hermida. Delmon Young is easily the most highly-touted of the group, and he probably won't disappoint, but for some reason I get the feeling that, like Prince Fielder last year, he's not going to deliver, relative to where you'll have to pick him. Fielder had a solid first season (.271, 28, 81) but you know how many other guys put up comparable numbers and went a lot later in the draft, simply because they aren't named Prince Fielder? I fear the same will be true of Young. Gordon is battling for KC's third base job, TT has shortstop locked up in Colorado which could afford him the opportunity to put up some good numbers, Bailey and Hughes are expected to be big-time contributors to the Reds and Yankees' pitching staffs in the future, Young has to beat out Eric Byrnes in Arizona but has 30-30 potential, and Kouzmanoff plays in San Diego (check minus). And before you point out the fact that I forgot the biggest rookie of 2007, please read on...
#1. How good is Daisuke Matsuzaka, really?
ESPN.com ran a really interesting story on the gyroball he allegedly throws, and how nobody can hit it. It's thrown kind of like a football, it's said to spin sideways like a bullet coming out of a gun, and the end result is an uber-slider that breaks down a foot, and up to three feet opposite arm side. I stumbled upon this blog and spent probably half an hour reading it and following his links. It's called "Matsuzaka Watch," and it's about Dice-K, and Dice-K alone. There's also an interesting CBS News piece on the gyroball , which I found through the ESPN E-Ticket piece. Anyway, the Sox spent boatloads to get him, Japanese pitchers don't exactly have a fantastic track record in the US (see Irabu, Hideki) and baseball writers' early reviews have been mixed. He's ranked 99th overall on ESPN (after Chad Cordero, before Alex Rios), and he's ranked 70th overall on MLB.com (after Michael Young, before Dan Haren). There's even a where to draft Matsuzaka article out there. I don't know what to think, honestly. I'm sure he'll probably go high in a lot of drafts just because of the elusive factor and because of what people are saying about him. But rookies, in general, go a lot higher than they should and there are probably much safer 5th and 6th round picks out there. It's just a question of whether you want to play it safe on draft day.
He rarely walks, but he's still probably the best lead-off hitter in the game. He plays a wicked right field. And at the end of the season, he's a free agent. Ichiro doesn't want to talk about it, so I will. Where should he end up, and where will he end up?
Option 1 - He stays in Seattle.
In this scenario, he'd remain as close, geographically, to his native Japan as possible. But he sure wouldn't be any closer to winning a championship. The M's are one of 8 teams in the league with exactly zero World Series titles (the Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Devil Rays, Rangers and Expos/Nationals are the other 7), and one of only 5 to never even make it to the Fall Classic. Ichiro turns 34 at the end of the season. He was an MVP and batting champ overseas. He's an MVP and batting champ in the US. My guess is, he wants to win. And I'm not sure if Seattle will help him achieve that any time soon.
Option 2 - He joins the Yankees.
The Yanks apparently have an option on Bobby Abreu in 2008. They could pick it up and have an Abreu-Damon-Ichiro outfield (you could put any of them anywhere, except for Damon in right), or they could decline the option and then #51 replaces #53 in right. Ichiro does have a hose for an arm, but he's still not a starting pitcher (something the Yanks will likely need much more of this coming off-season, as compared to another bat). So I'm not convinced he'll be teammates with Hideki Matsui any time soon.
Option 3 - He joins the Red Sox.
J.D. Drew's not hurt yet, but c'mon. Right field in Boston is about as readily open as Britney Spears' room at the rehab clinic. And Coco Crisp hasn't really gotten the chance to prove himself. But in the meantime, is Kevin Youkilis really the answer at lead-off? And is this the off-season where the Sox finally do trade Manny Ramirez? Hard to say. But then again, Terry Francona's not exactly Whitey Herzog when it comes to stolen bases. The Sox swiped just 51 bags last year and 45 the year before. So it doesn't seem like Ichiro's slap-and-dash style would be used to its fullest capabilities in Beantown.
Option 4 - He joins the Cubs.
Hmmm. They keep saying the have tons of cash to spend. And right fielder Jacque Jones is one of just a few non-All Stars in their starting lineup. But like the Yanks, I think the Cubs will be in the market for pitching more than offense, come October. Still, can you think of a better way to start a lineup than Ichiro, Soriano, Lee, and Aramis Ramirez? Mark Prior could pitch with his left arm and still win.
Option 5 - He joins the Indians.
Double hmmm. He would be the veteran presence on a mostly up-and-coming young team. The Indians only have Casey Blake holding down the fort in right. And they like to run. They're not necessarily a big market team that's always in the running for the top free agent prize. Still, seems like a decent, "sleeper fit."
Option 6 - He joins the other New York team.
Sean Green's career is headed into its twilight years, but the Mets already have a pretty good lead-off hitter in Jose Reyes. Plus, like the Cubs and Yankees, the Mets need starting pitching, arguably the most out of all of them. So if they break the bank on anyone, it will most likely be on a replacement for Pedro or Tom Glavine, not Ichiro.
Option 7 - He joins the Phillies.
Not that I don't like Shane Victorino, but Ichiro would be an absolutely perfect fit in Philly. He and Jimmy Rollins would be fantastic table-setters for Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Remember that first-four-hitters-for-the-Cubs scenario? The Phils' first four with Mr. Suzuki would be even better. Plus, they already have decent starting pitching, so he would make them an instant favorite in the NL East (depending, of course, on what the Mets do). He would also give Philly one of the best defensive outfields in the game. He and Burrell get tons of assists, and Aaron Rowand is a regular on Web Gems.
Option 8 - He joins any other team.
I think you can instantly eliminate teams about 18 of the remaining 23 clubs because either (a) his presence alone won't make them an instant contender (Colorado, Texas, Washington to name a few), (b) they simply don't need a right-fielder (Atlanta, LA Angels, White Sox, teams like that), or (c) they don't stand a chance at out-bidding bigger market teams (Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay, this list is long).
That really only leaves teams like Houston, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, or maybe Toronto. Maybe he's the missing piece for one of these organizations. Houston is interesting, although for some reason, I just can't see him in an Astros uniform, although they did just trade their only real stolen base threat to the Rockies. St. Louis isn't getting any younger, and the Cards starting pitching took a huge hit this off-season. Ichiro would be a great table setter for the Giants, but there's nobody behind him to sit down and eat. And I think he'd stay in Seattle before he played in Canada.
If he is going to leave, I think he'd work out best in Philadelphia. But a lot can change between now and the World Series. Judging by what he said today, we'll probably have to wait at least 8 months to get any kind of idea what he's thinking and where, if anywhere, he's going.
Either Barry Bonds is flat-out nuts, or he really is innocent. He is now openly inviting Major League Baseball to investigate him, in connection with its steroids investigation. In my mind, this is kind of like al-Qaeda openly inviting the United States to determine what role, if any, it had in terrorism, and or 9/11. Yes, openly asking people to bring it on, when you know they can cause you serious damage is not a good idea, almost all the time.
You'd think the Bobby Bacala-esque body of evidence against Bonds would be enough to make him not want to taunt the people who could (a) confirm what a majority of baseball fans already think (b) tarnish what would have been a Hall of Fame career (c) cut-short this season's pursuit of baseball's most hallowed record (d) make the Giants look awfully stupid for signing him for $15.8M, although (e) make them awfully glad they included the "all bets are off if you get indicted" clause in the deal.
But then again, Bonds has always been somewhat bold ("is bold the right word?") in defending himself against allegations. Ever since the Chronicle reporters broke the story, he's done nothing but deny, deny, deny. When they wrote a book, he still denied. When his trainer went to jail for obstruction of justice, he still denied. If he's not indicted, and hits number 756 this season, he will, no doubt, be asked the same question he's been asked for the last 3 years. And I think we all know what his response will be.
And the Cubs like Carlos Zambrano. A week to the day after Treinta Ocho demanded the Cubs sign him before the season, they did. He didn't get the $15M he wanted, and the Cubs aren't locked into a long-term deal, just in case all those pitches (thanks for the post Matt) take a toll on his wing.
I'd say the scoreboard looks something like this...Cubs - 1, Treinta Ocho - 1, NL Central - 0. Now they just need the rest of the staff (Marquis, Lilly, Prior, etc.) to fall into line.
By the way, I think it's pretty sweet that he has an incentive clause in his contract if he wins the sliver slugger award. This was a guy who swung out of his ass last year and there wasn't extra money at stake. I can't wait to see the kind of hacks T.O. takes in '07.
Now, it appears there's a new celebrity couple that everyone's talking about. That's right, it's D-Rod. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez's relationship is apparently the only thing that's actually newsworthy in Yankee-land. Sure there's Mariano's contract, and the Bernie Williams situation. Plus, most people are picking the Sox, who finished 3rd last year, to win the East. Of yeah, they haven't won a World Series since 2000, and haven't even been since 2003, despite having one of, if not the highest payroll each year. There's the pitching staff face-lift. There's Joe Torre's job. There's the 1b/DH/LF cluster-you-know-what involving Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera. And there's the Yanks, all-of-the-sudden-good-again farm system.
But forget about that. Did you see the way Alex looked at Derek when they were taking fungos? I mean, what was that all about?!?!?!?
This is absurd. Who cares how often they stayed over at each other's houses? Who cares how much they talk/party/share their feelings/text-message each other? Even Jeter says he doesn't know why this is a huge story all of the sudden.
Quoting him (and he's absolutely right), "It has no bearing on us playing baseball."
You can't possibly tell me that if Jeter gave A-Rod a big hug before the start of last year's playoffs, he wouldn't have gone 1-14.
Yes, this is early front-runner for "Biggest Non-Story Of 2007," and the scary part is, it's not even March.
2007 Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball is officially open for business. And, as always, I think their top 12 O-Rank, which is defined as "the player's overall Yahoo! Sports ranking, based on current and prior seasons," is worth examining.
1. Albert Pujols - no argument here
2. Johan Santana - funny, that's where I had him too
3. Jose Reyes - clearly a big upside, but this high?
4. Alfonso Soriano - seems about right
5. Ryan Howard - also seems about right
6. Alex Rodriguez - did I predict this would happen, or what?
7. Carlos Beltran - I'm still a little gun-shy after 2005
8. David Ortiz - Ryan Howard, just a few picks later
9. Chase Utley - positional scarcity with 5-category production
10. Miguel Cabrera - exactly where I had him
11. David Wright - I'd be happy to get him with pick 11
12. Vladimir Guerrero - I'd be happy to get him with pick 12
Now, just for fun, here's the top 12 statistically (in 5x5 leagues) from 2006
1. Albert Pujols
2. Johan Santana
3. Ryan Howard
4. Alfonso Soriano
5. Jose Reyes
6. Joe Nathan (seriously)
7. David Ortiz
8. Derek Jeter
9. Matt Holliday
10. Carlos Beltran (maybe he is a first-rounder)
11. Lance Berkman
12. Jermaine Dye
So what does this tell us? Well, a few things. If you have one of the first five picks this year, chances are, no matter who you take (so long as it's Albert, Johan, Howard, Reyes or Soriano), they are going to perform like a first-round pick. It's later in the first round that things get interesting. For example, if you got the unlucky 12th pick last year, I'd be willing to bet Matt Holliday and Derek Jeter were still around. If you took them back-to-back, you would have drawn immense criticism from the other 11 teams in the league, but you also would have drawn the names of two top-10 performers without one top-10 pick. Not bad.
I guess the real challenge is determining who are going to be this year's Joe Nathans (almost impossible to predict a reliever's win total, which is why he's so high), Derek Jeters, Matt Hollidays (could be Matt Holliday again), and Jermaine Dyes. It might be even more important to try to predict this year's Alex Rodriguez (could be Alex Rodriguez again), so you don't end up paying for a name, rather than paying for stats.
I was looking for a topic for my latest post. Then I stumbled upon this.
Jackpot.
Now here's the thing, I don't claim to have much experience as a pro ballplayer, and I have absolutely zero experience as a big league GM. But how the hell does something like this happen? Seems to me, a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PITCHING MOTION is something an organization, now $126 million dollars over 7 years lighter, doesn't want to learn about for the first time at spring training.
So who's to blame, Zito or the Giants? That's an easy one in my opinion. If you read that story past the first few paragraphs, you see Zito has been throwing this way for months. He's been a Giant since late December; about a month and a half. So obviously, Z was tinkering with his delivery while Scott Boras was in the midst of negotiating the most lucrative contract for a big league pitcher in the history of the game. The blame totally falls on San Francisco here. How could they not ask? How could they not attend a workout? How did this not come up in any conversation? It wouldn't have been that hard...
GM Brian Sabean: Hey Z, whatcha' been up to this offseason?
Barry Zito: Oh, not much.
BS: You been throwing at all?
BZ: Sure, 4 times a week. By the way, I completely changed my motion. You know, the motion I've used since I entered the league 7 years ago. The motion I've used to go 39 games over .500, with a 3.55 ERA. The motion that's enabled me to make each of my last 222 starts. The motion I used when I won the Cy Young in 2002. It's no big deal though.
BS (suddenly beat red, reaching for his cell phone): Well, good talking to you. We'll be in touch.
Even when I was with the Expos organization, and making $1 for every $4,235 Barry makes now ($850 a month, April through August only vs. $18 million a season), a scout still held a mini workout a few weeks before spring training just to see how we were doing and check our off-season progress. Although he did take us to Pizza Hut after the workout, so it's more like Zito's making $4,220 for every dollar I make. Sucker.
I'll tell you who I don't blame in this, and that's Zito. He worked hard to get his legs in shape, and now he's trying to use them more to push off of the rubber. In his mind, (which one of the many subjects discussed in Mychael Urban's fantastic book, by the way) he's just trying to get better, and you can't fault an athlete for that. No, this is totally a "caveat emptor lesson" for Frisco. Pitching coach Dave Righetti's worried Zito's trademark curveball might not be as good with different mounds in the National League. Seems to me if my number one told me he was trying to re-invent the wheel, I would want to get a good look at Wheel 2.0 before my ace took it for a test drive in Scottsdale.
We'll see how a new motion affects the most durable pitcher in the game this season, and that's if he even uses his new motion. My guess is, Zito's numbers this year will be about the same as they were last year (3.83 ERA, 16 W, 151 K). The difference between adjusting to new hitters, new hitters adjusting to him, pitching in a smaller park, and pitching to pitchers, should be a wash. But if it's not, and his college-era-motion screws him up beyond repair, or if he gets hurt, the Giants will have learned a very expensive lesson.
And by "this" I mean referring to yourself in the third person, the way Carlos Zambrano just did when asked about his contract and his future with the Chicago Cubs. Here's what "Treinta Ocho" told WGN-TV...
"If they don't sign me, sorry, but I must go. That's what Carlos Zambrano thinks."
Forget the threats to the Cubs. Carlos Zambrano owes George Costanza an apology. That line is so 12 years ago.
As for his threat, the Cubs are in a bad place here. They can't not give him what he wants, which is a deal in the neighborhood of $15M per (oh by the way, he wants it before the season starts). If they don't, somebody else almost certainly will, like division rivals St. Louis, or Cincinnati, either New York team, Atlanta, or pretty much anybody else who wants a 25-year-old, hard-throwing, durable, strikeout machine, with a career ERA under 3.30. Plus, if they don't re-up with Treinta Ocho (seriously, I'm hoping this nickname sticks), and if Mark Prior can't make 30 starts this year, then the money they spent this off-season on Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and others will be kind of wasted because they'll have no quality pitching.
Although just for the sake of future posts, it would be funny if the Cubs don't re-sign him, and if nobody else offers him anything close to what he wants, and he gives another interview next year at this time and says, "Carlos is getting frustrated!"
With spring training just days away, and having already demonstrated with unparalleled potency my ability to jinx the living crap out of a team, I thought it was high time I came out with my predictions for the 2007 season. So here they are...
AL EAST
x-Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Every team in this division can hit, so it's going to come down to pitching, something the Red Sox have a lot of, at least when it comes to starters. The big X-Factor here is the closer position. Every team (even the Devil Rays for God's sake) knows who their closer is going to be...except Boston. Maybe it's Mike Timlin, maybe it's Craig Hansen, maybe it's Johnny Acquired In A Mid-Season Trade, I've even heard they're considering trying Joel Pineiro. Either way, bullpen-by-committee is not the recipe for success, especially in a tough division where you could argue that all 5 teams improved form 2006.
AL CENTRAL
x-Detroit Tigers
y-Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit has the same team as last year, plus Gary Sheffield. Their bullpen is scary and now, all their young arms know how good they are. Cleveland is way too talented to finish in 4th place again. Plus, they quietly had a good off-season adding Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon and bullpen help. The Sox and Twins both lost a major player in their rotation (Freddy Garcia and Brad Radke respectively), and Kansas City is going to be in last for the foreseeable future.
AL WEST
x-Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
LA's pitching staff could be even better than Boston's if Bartolo comes back healthy, if Escobar stays healthy and if Jered Weaver has another solid 2007. Oakland's success hinges on two guys- Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby. It's time for them both to show what they can do with a full, healthy season. If they can't stay healthy again, that might be your answer. Seattle should be better after adding some arms (Weaver, Batista, Ramirez, Reitsma) and some bats (Guillen, Vidro). And poor Texas still can't pitch, plus they lost Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa and Gary Matthews this off-season.
NL EAST
x-New York Mets
y-Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
The Mets have baseball's best offense, but they'd better hope Pedro can come back soon, and that Chan Ho Park is a decent stop-gap, because otherwise, they might run out of pitching by the All Star Break. The Phillies finally have a decent staff to compliment a fantastic offense. Florida will continue to overachieve considering their dollar-store payroll, Atlanta's losses outweigh their gains, and you already know I think the Nats will be baseball's worst team.
NL CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs
Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Yes, I am throwing up a Hail Mary here, but I really think with a healthy Derek Lee, a healthy Mark Prior (it's going to happen), Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Neal Cotts and Lou Piniella this team will be so much better than 2006, it has a legitimate shot at winning a very winnable division. Let's not forget, 83 wins won the Central last year, and the Cardinals lost 60% of their starting rotation, and Houston lost Roger Clemens (plus Brad Lidge remains a head case). The Reds are good but not great (they're especially average offensively) Milwaukee is still young and Pittsburgh still can't pitch.
NL WEST
x-Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Personally, I love the Dodgers this year and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's an all-L.A. World Series. They have a terrific mix of veterans, youth, speed, and contact. They're just missing a true power hitter (with all apologies to Jeff Kent, Nomar and Luis Gonzalez). The Pads will pitch enough to stay in the race for a while, but they are very weak offensively. The D-Backs will win more games than people think because of the Marlin-like young talent and The Unit's return to the desert. The Giants will lose 35 games by a score of 2-1 because their offense is so bad, and much like the Rays in the AL East, the Rockies are simply out-classed in terms of pitching.
My World Series, for the record, Dodgers over Red Sox (yes they do eventually get a closer) in 6 games.
This came down on the AP wires, literally seconds ago...
BALTIMORE (AP) - Baltimore Orioles pitcher Kris Benson has a
torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder and will almost certainly
miss the 2007 season.
Benson's agent says a recent M-R-I revealed a partial tear. The
injury will require surgery, but the procedure has not yet been
scheduled.
Sorry O's fans. Maybe those playoff tickets are refundable.
The Baltimore Orioles impress me this year, and I'm a little scared because I'm not used to this sort of thing happening. After all, this organization is responsible for such recent disasters as "The Sammy Sosa Experiment," "We Want Sidney Ponson Back" and "Here's $37M Albert Belle, Please Stay Away From Camden Yards." Those moves and others have translated into 9 straight losing seasons. As a matter of fact, they've finished over.500 just 4 times since 1990. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and (last year) Blue Jays, doesn't help either.
All that aside, I really think this team is moving in the right direction for the first time in a while. They finally have a halfway respectable, fairly young, pitching staff. Erik Bedard is looking like he belongs at the front end of a big league rotation. Daniel Cabrera certainly has the stuff to be a number one, and the longer Leo Mazzone works with him, the closer I think he is to getting there (but, man those walk totals are absurd...this guy is the real life Nuke LaLoosh).
Jaret Wright also has great stuff, and now that he's out of New York, could be a nice surprise for the O's, provided he doesn't get hurt, which is no guarantee. Kris Benson is a serviceable number four. And Adam Loewen had an up-and-down 2006, but he did beat the Yankees twice, and he only turns 23 this season. He'll probably battle Hayden Penn and others for the number five spot. The fact that Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Russ Ortiz aren't around to make any starts this year, will also help immensely.
The bullpen should be better too, thanks to an old face and lots of new ones. Chris Ray made the sting of B.J. Ryan's departure a hurt a lot less. Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker and Scott Williamson should be solid additions to a staff that blew 21 saves last year.
Offensively, they're not that bad either. I'd love to see what Nick Markakis can do with a full season. If you take his second half of last year, and extrapolate it out over a full year, it works out to .312, 97 R, 38 2B, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 51 BB, 76 K. Those are All-Star numbers.
They just signed Corey Patterson and Brian Roberts to extensions. Patterson revived his career last year, hitting .276 and stealing 45 bases. Problem with him is, he strikes out so much (94 times last year, once every 4 times up for his career) that you can't hit him 1 or 2, you have to hit him last in the lineup. Roberts came back down to Earth last year, but .286, 85 runs, 10 homers and 36 steals is pretty good for a lead-off man, especially considering he was still recovering from his arm injury to start the season.
Miguel Tejada posted a career-high in batting average last year (.330) and is as steady as they come at short. Ramon Hernandez posted career bests in home runs, doubles and RBI. I also like the Jay Payton signing. He's always kind of been an "under-the-radar" kind of guy, but he has some pop, and hit .296 last year. He's kind of a Jeff Conine type player.
Their problems, as I see it, are at the corners, and DH. Melvin Mora had a dreadful 2006, and it's the second year in a row that he's declined a lot. He just turned 35, so this may be a sign of a career that's reaching the twilight years. I still find it remarkable that Kevin Millar/Jay Gibbons i
s the best they can do at first base.
Gibbons just can't stay healthy, and when he is healthy, he's still an average power hitter (.277, 23 HR, 100 RBI in 2003, his only injury-free year). The days of thinking he's going to be a real threat to hit 30+ homers should be over, just as the days of thinking Kris Benson has Cy Young stuff are over. Millar may be a great teammate, but he's nothing special offensively either. He's hit .300 twice in 8 seasons, hit 20 HR twice, and he's never driven in 100. Plus, he's on the wrong side of 35. It blows my mind that with that little park, the O's can't attract some left-handed slugging first baseman to come play in Baltimore.Then there's the Aubrey Huff signing. It should serve fans as a reminder that, while the ship is pointed the right way, it can still get thrown off course very easily. $20M over three years for a guy who is clearly not the same player he was a few years ago with the Devil Rays- bad birds, bad! Since 2003, Huff's production has dropped across the board to the point where he's now very average whether he's at first, DH or in the outfield (.267, 21 HR, 66 RBI with the Rays and Astros last year).
The O's are definitely at a disadvantage playing in the top-heavy AL East. But if their starters keep developing, if the offense does what it's capable of doing, and if the pen is decent, the 10th time might be the charm for Charm City. 82 wins isn't an unreasonable goal.
Bronson Arroyo just signed a 2-year, $25 million dollar extension with the Cincinnati Reds. Earlier this week, the Reds also gave Aaron Harang a 4-year, $36.5 million dollar deal. So essentially, these two righties will make a combined $71 million dollars over the next 4 years, or an average of about $9 million per guy, per year, until 2010.
Wow.
I don't know what's more outrageous, that, or this quote from Reds owner Bob Castellini.
"Many baseball people agree that with Bronson and Aaron Harang, the top of our rotation is as strong as any in baseball."
By "many baseball people," I think Bob Castellini means Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and himself.
Let's break this down. Yes, Arroyo had a good year last year, at least on paper. He threw 240 innings, he made 35 starts, he had a 3.29 ERA, and he had 184 K's. But let's not forget a lot of that was fueled by his first 12 starts. On June 19th, he was 9-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 80 K's (or 6.7 per start) and well on his way to starting the All-Star Game.
Then the real Arroyo emerged. In his last 23 starts, he went 5-8 with a 3.93 ERA and 105 K's, or 4.6 per start. Those numbers are much closer to his career averages as a starter (12-9, 3.91 ERA, 4.4 K's per start, the last three years). Essentially, Arroyo's a decent number 3 or 4 starter on a good team (like he was in Boston in 2004), not one of the anchors of a staff.
I take less issue with Harang, but I still take some issue. He too enjoyed a very solid 2006. He posted career bests in wins (16), innings pitched (234), starts (35), complete games (6), K's (216), and ERA (3.76). But his pre-2006 showing hardly screams that he's a lock to do it again. In his career, he's 4 games over .500 with a 4.28 ERA. Before last season, he'd never won more than 11 games, and never come close to 200 K's. On the plus side, Harang has gotten significantly better in each of his 3 years with the Reds. And if he does it again in 2007, he and the Reds will have made me look stupid. I'll believe it when I see it though.
Just as a side note, it's probably worth exploring their less-than-admirable performances in the post-season. In 10 games including 2 starts in 5 series, Arroyo is 3-2 with a 7.41 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 9 BB and 20 K in 17 IP. Harang is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0 BB and 0K and 0 IP. In other words, he has no playoff experience.
As for the "one-of-the-best-front-of-the-rotations-in-baseball" thing, I also beg to differ. I would take the starters in Arizona (Webb and The Big Unit), Boston (Schilling, Beckett or Matsuzaka), Detroit (Rogers, Bonderman or Verlander), Houston (Oswalt and Jennings), either of the L.A.'s (Schmidt, Penny or Lowe...and Lackey, Escobar or Colon), Minnesota (Santana and whoever, Boof Bonser, Kent Hrbek, Prince, Jesse Ventura, take your pick), New York (Mussina, Wang or Pettitte), Philadelphia (Myers and Garcia), San Diego (Peavy and Young), San Francisco (Zito and Cain), AND Tornoto (Halladay and Burnett) before the Reds front two. In other words, Cincinnati has the 13th best #1 and 2 starters out of anyone in baseball. That's worth $71 million bucks, don't you think?
Now look, if they have a repeat of 2006 in 2007, then yes, maybe they've hit their late 20's, figured out how to pitch, and the Reds have just solidified the front of their rotation for the next three years. All I'm saying is it's just as likely that they both had the best years of their careers last year, the Reds took the bait, and they cashed in.
Note to Bob Castellini... Just because you pay them like number one starters, doesn't mean they are number one starters, yet.
Yahoo Fantasy Baseball returns one week from today, February 15th. That, friends, is cause for celebration!
Apparently there's a clause in A-Rod's contract that enables him to leave New York at the end of the 2007 season, and join another club. So the first question is, will he do it? And the second question is, if so, where's he going to go?
Personally, I loved the beginning, italicized part of Jerry Crasnick's article, mainly because I think it's a fairy accurate representation of what is going to happen in the not-too-distant future. Okay, he's a good-looking dude, makes a sinful amount of money, and hasn't exactly been Mr. Clutch in the post-season. But New York isn't for everybody, A-Rod's still on a short list of the best players in the game (and may end up on a short list of the best ever), and he still has a whole lot of career ahead of him. So my thinking is, why not cut your losses, start fresh, and help a team "on the verge" (the Chicago Cubs, or Los Angeles Angels seem like perfect fits) really become a serious contender in 2008.
Let's face the facts, A-Rod could hit 75 steroid-free home runs next season and it would still be Derek Jeter's team. He's the guy with all the rings, not A-Rod. Even if A-Rod hits .500 this post-season, Jeter would make some highlight-reel defensive play and get a big hit or two, and it's all everyone would be talking about in the Bronx.
Imagine what A-Rod could do in a less media-intense market (there are 28 of them, by the way). He could sit back, rake, win a bunch of MVP's, get the championship monkey off his back the way Peyton Manning did a few days ago, and not have to worry about winning over fickle New York fans (35 home runs and 121 RBI!?! That's it!?!??! This guy SUCKS!).
I can see it now...Game 6 of the 2008 World Series in New York...A-Rod, now Chicago's shortstop, goes deep twice of Chien-Ming Wang (because he's not a number one, but the closest thing the Yanks have to one). In doing so, he helps Lou Pineilla forget about his days in Tampa, helps Steve Bartman emerge from the witness protection program, and helps every Cubbie fan forget about the last 100 years and party like it's 1908 all over again. What a story that would be.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, or perhaps Juan Gonzalez was inspired by Sammy Sosa. Either way, it now seems Igor wants back in baseball.
The similarities between Sosa and Gonzalez are remarkable. Both hail from Latin American countries (Gonzalez from Puerto Rico, Sosa from the Dominican). Both played right field. Both broke in with the Texas Rangers in 1989. Both were spectacular power hitters in their prime. Both won 6 Silver Slugger Awards. Both won the MVP in 1998 (Juan Gone also won the award in 1996, in what's considered one of, if not the worst vote ever, especially if you ask Alex Rodriguez). Both have been suspected, if not outright accused of using steroids during baseball's Juice Era. Both ended their careers in 2005 as shadows of their former selves. Both are in their late 30's now. And both struck out more consistently than a member of Best Buy's Geek Squad at the Playboy Mansion (Gonzo's career average is 5.2 AB's per K, Sosa's is 3.8).
The biggest difference between the two is that Sosa had nagging injuries at the end of his career, while Gonzalez had nagging and serious injuries almost his entire career. Gonzo played in 150 games just twice over 17 years, and those seasons were 6 years apart. Sosa did it 8 times, including 6 years in a row. I mentioned how their careers started and ended at the exact same time. Sosa ended up with more than 8,400 at bats. Gonzalez had almost 2,000 fewer.
Gonzalez says he wants to get to 500 home runs. I assume he thinks that if he can, he will be guaranteed a spot in Cooperstown. Personally, I think that stat has been cheapened of late, and is no longer the "Hall of Fame Golden Ticket" it once was.
Of the 20 players in the 500 home run club, 15 are in the Hall, and 5 are not. 3 of them (Barry Bonds, Sosa, and Ken Griffey Jr.) are still playing. Of that group, the only sure bet for induction is Griffey. Bonds are Sosa are already hurt by the "cloud of suspicion." And if that isn't enough to keep them out (and I don't think it is, but others may disagree) a federal indictment most certainly would be enough.
That leaves 2- Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. If the 2007 vote is any indicator, McGwire has a long way to go before he gets in, and he never actually tested positive. That means Palmeiro has zippy chance.
Then there are the guys closing in on 500. By my count, 7 have realistic shots to do it soon (remember, there are only 20 guys who have ever hit 500 home runs). They are...
Frank Thomas (487, age 38)Jim Thome (472, age 35)
Manny Ramirez (470, age 34)
Alex Rodriguez (464, age 30)
Gary Sheffield (455, age 37)
Mike Piazza (419, age 37)
Carlos Delgado (407, age 34)
The first four guys on that list should all reach 500 this year. But are they all Hall of Famers? Thome is probably the biggest question mark for me. He's been a great power hitter in both leagues, but he's never really won any awards. He just hits 40 home runs a year. I think the same thing applies to Sheffield and Delgado, although Sheff does have an MVP and a batting title.
After that, guys like Chipper Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Giambi are knocking on the door too (they're all within 150 of 500 with a fair amount of career left), and I don't think they're necessarily shoe-ins, even if they do make it to 500.
Back to Gonzo now. Aside from, what I assume is his thinking about 500 home runs equaling a spot in the Hall, he has another major problem. He doesn't have 495, or 485, or even 475 career bombs. He has 434. Gonzalez would have to find a team, make the team, stay healthy all year and have Sammy Sosa's 1998 season to reach 500 this year. So what Juan is really saying is that he wants to come back, and stay back in baseball. Judging by how long it took him to hit his last 66 home runs, he's going to need well over a thousand at bats. And judging by how long it took him to get those last thousand at bats, Juan is going to need to play well into his 40's. Unfortunately this simply isn't going to happen.
My opinion is, Sosa's comeback is a bad idea, and Gonzalez's is even worse.
On the heels of my post about the Minnestoa Twins achieving the perfect balance of winning and thriftiness, I read this. Justin Morneau, the reigning MVP, who turns just 26 in May, who hit .321 with 34 homeruns and 130 RBI last year, who is no doubt an integral part of the Twins' future (along with Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, and to a lesser extent Joe Nathan), signed a one-year deal for $4.5 million dollars.
In the words of Porky Pig, "That's all folks."
I know it's arbitration, not free agency. But the fact that he only asked for $5M, the fact that the Twins wouldn't even give him that, and the fact that Morneau actually agreed to take less, blows my mind.
To put this contract into perspective, here's a starting lineup and a few pitchers who make a whole lot more than will make in '07.
C Jason Kendall $11.6M
1B Mike Sweeney $11.0M
2B Kaz Matsui $8.1M (the Rockies aren't laughing)
SS Edgar Renteria $10.0M
3B Adrian Beltre $12.9M
OF JD Drew $11.4M
OF Luis Gonzalez $10.7M
OF Shawn Green $10.2M
SP Andy Pettitte $16.4M
SP Randy Johnson $15.6M
SP Mike Hampton $14.5M
SP Javier Vazquez $12.0M
RP Eric Gagne $10.0M
Ouch for the A's, Royals, Rockies, Braves, Mariners, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Braves (agian), White Sox, and Rangers. What I find interesting about this list is that, with the exception of Mike Sweeney, every single guy will get this outrageous amount of money because they signed a big free agent contract. That really shows the value of being able to build from within, like Minnesota has, rather than having to build from without (via free agency) where you have to outbid and ultimately overpay for players who simply aren't worth it.
Which baseball teams are getting the most for their money? That's the question I was hoping to answer, and I figured there would be an easy mathematical way to do it. But after looking at team payrolls and win totals, I ran into a big problem. It's not that simple.
Baseball's payrolls last year ranged from as little as $14.345 million dollars (Florida Marlins) to $198.662 million dollars (New York Yankees). And even though the Marlins paid a paltry $180K for each of their 78 wins last season (by far, the lowest dollar amount of all 30 teams) I have a hard time concluding that more teams should try to be like the Marlins. After all, this is a team that finished below .500, and in 4th place in the NL East, 19 games out of first.
On the flip-side, I have an equally hard time saying the New York Yankees were a complete failure last year too, even though they paid $2.05 million dollars per win. The Yanks did win the division (uh-gain) and led Major League Baseball with 97 wins.
For the record, here's a list (from lowest to highest) of what teams paid per win last season.
1. Florida - $180K2. Colorado - $540K
3. Tampa Bay - $580K
4. Minnestoa - $660K
5. Oakland - $670K
6. Milwaukee - $670K7. Pittsburgh - $700K
8. Cleveland - $730K
9. Cincinnati - $740K
10. Kansas City - $760K
11. Arizona - $770K
12. San Diego - $780K
13. Texas - $810K
14. Toronto - $830K
15. Detroit - $870K
16. Washington - $890K
17. Philadelphia - $1.03M
18. Baltimore - $1.04M
19. NY Mets - $1.04M
20. St. Louis - $1.05M
21. Houston - $1.12M
22. LA Dodgers - $1.13M
23. Seattle - $1.13M
24. Chicago White Sox - $1.14M
25. LA Angels - $1.16M
26. Atlanta - $1.17M
27. San Francisco - $1.20M
28. Boston - $1.40M29. Chicago Cubs - $1.44M
30. NY Yankees - $2.05M
Now, here's a list of win totals from 2006 (from highest to lowest)
1. NY Yankees - 971. NY Mets - 97
3. Detroit - 95
4. Minnesota - 96
5. Oakland - 93
6. Chicago White Sox - 90
7. LA Angels - 89
8. LA Dodgers- 88
8. San Diego - 88
10. Toronto - 87
11. Boston - 86
12. Philadelphia - 85
13. St. Louis - 83
14. Houston - 82
15. Texas - 80
15. Cincinnati - 80
17. Atlanta - 79
18. Seattle - 78
18. Cleveland - 78
18. Florida - 78
21. Arizona - 76
21. Colorado - 76
21. San Francisco - 76
24. Milwaukee - 75
25. Washington - 71
26. Baltimore - 70
27. Pittsburgh - 67
28. Chicago Cubs - 6629. Kansas City - 62
30. Tampa Bay - 61
A few things jump out at me (and probably you too). First, the Chicago Cubs were really bad. They had the second highest cost per win ($1.44M) and third lowest win total (66). Also, Minnesota and Oakland were really good. They were both in the top 5 in wins, and in the bottom 5 in cost per win.
That gave me an idea. Teams want to be at the top of both lists those lists to be considered (a) cost-effective, and (b) successful. So what if I took their average ranking on the two lists? Here's how that panned out...
1. Minnesota - 42. Oakland - 5
3. Detroit - 9
4. Florida - 9.5
5. NY Mets - 10
5. San Diego -10
7. Colorado - 11.5
8. Toronto - 12
8. Cincinnati -12
10. Cleveland - 13
11. Texas - 14
12. Philadelphia - 14.5
13. Milwaukee - 15
13. LA Dodgers - 15
13. Chicago White Sox - 15
16. NY Yankees - 15.5
17. Arizona - 16
18. LA Angels - 16
19. Tampa Bay - 16.5
19. St. Louis - 16.5
21. Pittsburgh - 17
22. Houston - 17.5
23. Kansas City - 19.5
23. Boston - 19.5
25. Seattle - 20.5
25. Washington - 20.5
27. Atlanta - 21.5
28. Baltimore - 22
29. San Francisco - 24
30. Chicago Cubs - 28.5
While I don't agree with exactly how this panned out, a lot does make sense. Minnesota and Oakland, two franchises known for making the most out of the least, are ranked #1, and 2. In fact, five of the top six teams made the playoff last year, and the team that didn't (Florida) was one of the biggest surprises. The Cubs, Giants, Orioles and Braves all had big payrolls and poor results last year. And the Yankees (most wins, most money spent) rank in the middle.
I found the Cardinals (19th, tied with the D-Rays) and the Red Sox (23rd, tied with the Royals) a bit puzzling. The Cards have a big payroll, and did only finish 2 games over .500, they just happened to win the whole thing. As for the Red Sox/Royals debate I guess I'd say this, which is worse, having a big payroll and just missing the playoffs, or having a tiny payroll and missing the playoffs by a lot? I guess it's about equal.
...but even if I had $2.3 million dollars, I'm not sure I'd use it to buy a baseball card, even if it's the rarest baseball card in history. You can't display it, because any number of bad things can happen.
