It's Hardware Time, Part 5: Comeback Player Of The Year

I wish I had known they were going to announce these so soon because otherwise I would have posted about them sooner, but let's just say I don't disagree with Carlos Pena and Dmitri Young as the Comeback Players of the Year.

As I've said before, Pena is a simply amazing story. He bested his previous single-season homerun total by 19 this year and finally looks like the player he was supposed to be 5 years ago. Heck, if it wasn't for A-Rod, he probably would have led the league in homeruns (46). Not bad for a guy who wasn't even guaranteed a spot on the lowly Devil Rays in spring training.

Young is a good story too. He's had some off-field problems and also wasn't guaranteed anything in spring training. But he hit and hit and hit and ended up being Washington's sole All-Star representative in San Francisco this year. He also ended up being tied for 10th in the NL in average (.320).

What's interesting for fantasy players next year is that I don't imagine Young will be all-that-hot of a commodity on draft day, whereas Pena could be the the first AL first baseman off the board. Obviously the NL is teeming with talent there (Pujols, Howard, Fielder, Teixeira, Berkman, Lee) but would you take Pena over somebody like Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko? If you think he's going to come anywhere close to duplicating his 2007 season, you probably should. Then again, that's a big "if."

Carlos, Pena Bills This Season

It's not often that a guy goes from "can't-miss prospect," to "never-was" to "might be after all" in a span of six seasons, 5 teams and fewer than 2,000 at-bats. But that's exactly what's happened, apparently, to Tampa Bay first baseman Carlos Pena.

A highly-touted player in the Texas Ranger organization, he was acquired by the Oakland A's in a trade before the 2002 season, and first base was given to him, ostensibly, for the next 10 years. But he didn't hit (.218, 7, 16 in 125 AB), the A's didn't win, and they shipped him off to Detroit in a multi-team deal. This is usually not a good sign for a blue-chipper to be on a third club before his 200th at-bat, but the Tigers were optimistic. They waited, and waited, and waited. But with the exception of two marginally productive seasons in '03 and '04, were rewarded with virtually nothing for their patience. Pena had a mid-season cup of coffee with Boston last year but wasn't a great fit there, either. So the D-Rays signed him, back on April Fool's Day. Now, it's the rest of the league that's looking silly.

At 29 years old, Pena is one of the Rays' elder statesmen. I don't know if it's the steady diet of Florida orange juice, the green jerseys, or hitting behind Brendan Harris, but Carlos Pena is, for the first time in his career, Carlos Pena. After today's homerun against the Yankees, he is now 6 away from toping his career-best (with almost an entire second half to go). He's tied with Gary Sheffield for third in the AL in homers. He's also hitting .292, which is almost 50 points above his career average. His strikeout to walk ratio is below 2:1 for the first time ever, and his name should be mentioned among the best first basemen in the league, this year.

I'll admit, I was skeptical for a long time. "He isn't this good, it's Carlos Pena, for God's sake," I uttered more than once, all the while reaping the statistical benefits of his breakout year on my fantasy team. And even though the flaws are there (just 10 for 50 against lefties, still striking out once every 3.5 AB, never had 500 AB in a season), there are some awfully encouraging signs, too (OPS over 1.000, OBP of nearly .400, better numbers on the road than at home, hitting .350 this month after a .250 month of June).

Whether Pena has finally found a home, remains to be seen. His name has been mentioned numerous times in trade rumors , although the Rays claim they're not moving him. But right now, it looks like Carlos Pena, might be Carlos Pena after all...just 5 years later.