You Know Your Favorite Team Is Doomed When...

...this happens. 

So much blame to go around it's hard to know where to start but Bergesen certainly deserves a sizeable chunk considering it's his arm and he has the right to say, "Hey guys, this isn't smart.  I'm not in throwing shape."

The O's marketing department and/or whoever hired this production company also shouldn't escape unscathed.  Are none of these people baseball fans?  Do any of them realize that pitchers (especially prized 24-year-old prospects) are given incredibly detailed restrictions for when they can and cannot throw?  Did it not occur to any of them that Brad was working up a sweat, huffing and puffing, and airing it out before Spring Training!? 

This is also a major botch for the organization as a whole.  Don't the promotional people have to talk to the baseball people when they want to use a player in a spot?  Is it possible the baseball people (manager, pitching coach, strength and conditioning staff) were left completely out of the loop here?  If that was the case and I'm Dave Trembley, I want somebody fired yesterday. 

For O's fans, let's hope this injury is as minor as the team claims it is.  And let's also hope their next team promo isn't a spot where Matt Wieters is asked to block home plate with Ray Lewis chugging full-steam towards his right knee.

I'll keep this short...

If someone can give me ONE compelling reason why Millwood-to-the-O's makes sense for Baltimore, I will mail you a $20 dollar bill.

Here are the facts...

-Mill turns 35 in a coupla weeks (check minus)
-The gave up a soon-to-be 28-year-old former closer and player to be named later to get him (check-minus)
-Last time I checked, Boston and New York still look good on paper the next few years (check minus)
-Last time I checked, the O's were "committed" to a youth movement

Ball's in your court, blogosphere...and "he's their 2010 Opening Day starter" doesn't cut it as a viable excuse.

So, How's That Rebuilding Going?

Well let's see, O's fans. Troy Patton, the centerpiece of the Miguel Tejada deal, will miss the entire season with a torn labrum, Daniel Cabrera still can't find the strike zone, Nick Markakis feels like he's not being paid enough, and the Brian-Roberts-to-the-Cubs-deal is going nowhere. Is it 2011 yet?

Bedard Deal Official

The Baltimore Sun has a nice breakdown of who the O's are getting for Erik Bedard, now that the deal is done. And right now, it looks like they got a lot more than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.

I already knew a little bit about 22-year-old center fielder Adam Jones, but not much more about the other four guys. Among them, it appears there's a 30-year-old closer candidate for this season (George Sherill), two potential mid-rotation starters who are just 20 and 19 (Tony Butler and Chris Tillman), and a 23-year-old closer candidate in-waiting (Kam Mickolio). All this for a bona fide ace who's not yet 29, but also has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season, has never been an All-Star, and has zero postseason appearances.

Well done, Birds.

Now, get what you can for Brian Roberts and we'll check back with you in 2010.

Bye Bye Bedard

It looks like it's a reality in Baltimore. If 22-year-old Adam Jones is as good as advertised (he went .314, 25 HR, 27 doubles, .382 OBP last year in AAA) then the Birds will have the makings of a nice offensive future with Nick Markakis and catcher Matt Wieters, who's rated the number one backstop prospect in the game right now.

Is Brian Roberts next on the chopping block? If he's not, he should be, in my opinion.

Welcome To The Orioles, Troy Patton!

Upon learning he'd been traded from Houston, along with four other members of the Astros' organization for Miguel Tejada, the 22-year-old lefty pitching prospect and top prize of the deal for Baltimore told the Houston Chronicle...

Wait for it...

Wait for it...

Keep waiting...

Okay, now!

"It's true. It's kind of sad really."

I don't know about you, but I think the O's have found a guy they can put on the front of their 2008 media guide. This kind of enthusiasm just screams 20-game winner, doesn't it?

In addition to Patton, a fireballer who had a solid cup of coffee with the big club in '07, the O's got outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate, and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo (I can hear the "can't stand ya!" chants already).

The addition of Scott in this deal is kind of puzzling. He'll turn 30 during the middle of next season and has seen time with Houston for each of the last 3 years. The lefty outfielder put up a really promising '06 with a .336 average, and 10 homeruns in 214 at-bats. But last year he hit just .255 and struck out 95 times in 369 at-bats. How he helps the Orioles now, or ever, I don't know.

Matt Albers will turn 25 in a month. Last year was one to forget for the righty who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen. He posted a 4-11 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.42 K:BB ratio. He supposedly has a great arm and closer stuff, but needs to learn how to harness it. Sound (Daniel Cabrera) familiar?

Dennis Sarfate is another reliever, turns 27 in early April, and appears to be a big strikeout guy. He had 14 of them (and just one walk) in 8 1/3 last year for Houston. The Orioles will also be his third team in as many years, though. In 2006, he struck out 11 in 8 1/3 for Milwaukee. A 9th round pick in 2000, he's averaged just about a strikeout an inning for his entire pro career.

And finally, Michael Costanzo is a 24-year-old slugging third baseman from Coastal Carolina. He was the 65th player taken in the 2005 draft and hit 27 homeruns last year at double-A Reading. He bats left, throws right and was Carolina's closer in 2005.

So all told, the Orioles got two pretty solid prospects (Patton and Costanzo), two more "maybe" pitchers (Albers and Sarfate) and a "help-you-now" throw-in (Scott). O's fans should be glad they finally traded Miggy, but they would have been able to get a whole lot more for him an offseason ago. They can only hope Bedard and Roberts go next, and that the team gets more in return for them.

As for Houston, it would appear exciting times are ahead for this bunch, as they are now the team with the best chance of supplanting the Cubs atop the NL Central. Their opening day lineup might look something like this...

CF Michael Bourne
2b Kaz Matsui
LF Carlos Lee
1b Lance Berkman
RF Hunter Pence
SS Miguel Tejada
3b Ty Wigginton
C Brad Ausmus

That's a lot of speed at the top, and a lot of pop in the middle. We'll see if they have enough pitching to be competitive.

Miggy On The Block?

Yes, he is. It seems the Baltimore Orioles, after amassing a .447 winning percentage (or .553 losing percentage) over 10 straight losing seasons (the 3rd longest active streak in baseball) are finally coming to grips with the fact that big changes need to be made.

In addition to getting whatever they can for Tejada, which will be significantly less than what they would have received a few years ago when they weren't winning either, I think they should look to deal Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard too. And here's why.

Roberts just turned 30. He's completely healed from that horiffic shoulder injury that ended his 2005 season and he posted a career best 50 steals in 2007. In other words, his best years are right now. There's a good chance he will never be more valuable and he is a free agent after 2009 not 2008, so he wouldn't be a "rent-a-player" in the eyes of suitors. There's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to get 2 or 3 significant prospects for him.

Next to Bedard. This is a tougher pill to swallow because he looked like the best pitcher in baseball from May through mid-August and he'll turn just 29 in spring training. But he's arbitration-eligible after 2008, eligible for free agency after 2009, will cost a boatload to resign, will be looking for a long-term deal, and then you'll have him in his early-to-mid 30's, rather than mid-to-late 20's. I'm inclined to think there aren't many teams out there that wouldn't give up their top prospect to get him. If you were the New York Yankees, would you part ways with Phil Hughes if you could get Erik Bedard? That's an instant upgrade if you're New York, and that's a team that's built to win yesterday, not now. Imagine who else they might be able to get. Justin Upton? Andy LaRoche? Homer Bailey? Yovani Gallardo? I don't think any of those offers would be laughed at.

Add up the prospects you'd be able to acquire for Tejada, Roberts, and Bedard, combine them with Nick Markakis, Matt Weiters, Chris Ray, Adam Loewen, Pedro Beato, Freddy Deza, Hayden Penn, and subtract the fat you'd trim by cutting ties with guys like Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Jay Gibbons, and others and you know what you have? A team that can actually compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2010. It might not be a popular decision right now. But fans would forget quickly once they start winning.

What's Next? Brian Roberts Indicted On Federal Dogfighting Charges?

For the 2007 Baltimore Orioles, it's a season that's already seen...

*A play-by-play announcer question the authenticity of Curt Schilling's bloody sock on the air, then apologize

*The color man make an on-air joke about domestic violence, then apologize

*The manager get fired

*The franchise player break his wrist, go on the DL, and lose his consecutive games played streak

*A dependable veteran starting pitcher be declared done for the season in spring training

*An up-and-coming starting pitcher suffer a season-ending injury after 6 starts

*Another starting pitcher hoping for a bounce-back season suffer a season-ending injury after 3 starts

*The closer suffer a season-ending injury around the All-Star break

*The ace and Cy Young candidate suffer a season-ending injury down the stretch

*A Rookie of the Year candidate fizzle down the stretch

*A modern-era-worst 30-3 loss at home

*A no-hitter at the hands of a pitcher making his second career start

*A revamped bullpen blow more saves than any team in the league

*A 9-game losing streak

*Another 9-game losing streak, and...

*Unless they win their last 20 games, a 10th straight losing season

Now you can add to that...a player accused of receiving human growth hormone from a now-infamous pharmacy. Say what you will about Jay Gibbons, but if he did in fact use HGH, it just proves the point many people have tried to make about Barry Bonds. Performance-enhancing drugs don't always enhance your performance.

At least now, it's football season.

Boy I'm Getting Sick Of This

Just when you think you've found a truly inspirational story, a really likable guy, someone you can cheer for no matter who your team is, you find out he's been linked to an HGH probe.

Sometimes I really do hate baseball.

Also, more bad news for Baltimore Orioles fans. Not only is your team now 3 losses away from a 10th straight losing season, but as I predicted, Erik Bedard's oblique injury will likely shelve him for the rest of 2007, and with it, any hope he had of winning the Cy Young award. That, too, is a real shame because it would have been a tremendous boost to a team that desperately needs one.

O What A Season

Seven losses from clinching their 10th straight losing season, losers of 10 of their last 11, and 10 days removed from a record-breaking 30-3 loss at home, things couldn't possibly get worse for the Baltimore Orioles, right? How about getting no-hit by a guy making his second big league start ever?!

Clay Buchholz walked 3, struck out 9, and gave up exactly zero hits at home tonight, in a 10-0 laugher. He is just the third pitcher in the modern era to throw a no-no in his first or second career start, and the first to do it since Wilson Alvarez in 1991 against, you guessed it, the Baltimore Orioles.

"It's amazing. That's all I can say," Buchholz beamed after the game.

Orioles fans might not use the exact same word, but I'm sure they're in disbelief as well.

For those of you keeping score, the official Dave Trembley era is off to a 1-10 start. Stay tuned.

O No!

Are you kidding me?

The Post-Perlozzo-Era?

BALTIMORE (AP) - The Baltimore Orioles have scheduled a 1 p-m news conference at the Camden Yards Warehouse for this afternoon amid reports they are firing manager Sam Perlozzo.
The Orioles have lost eight straight games and there are reports in The (Baltimore) Sun and on broadcast stations that Perlozzo is being fired.
The team has not publicly announced the reason for the news conference.
The 56-year-old Perlozzo is in his second season managing the Orioles. The Cumberland native had called managing the Orioles his dream job.

Apparently it's his fault they've lost 3 starting pitchers this season and the "new and improved bullpen" is atrocious.

Don't Look Now

But the Yankees have won 8 in a row, they're above .500 for the first time since April 20, and they've shaved 4 games off the Red Sox lead in just 10 days (they're also just 4.5 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card).

At the same time, perhaps I gave the Orioles a little too much credit when I predicted they'd have an easy time with Seattle, Colorado, and Washington before their pre-All-Star-break-schedule gets really tough. They are now guaranteed to lose all three series, and the best they can do in this 9-game cakewalk is 3-6. 10 days ago, I predicted they'd go 13-18 to close out the first half. They're 2-6 so far, meaning they'd have to go 11-12 against the Nats (one game), D'Backs, Padres, D'Backs, Yankees, Angles, White Sox, and Texas. They're going to have to pick it up really quick to flirt with .500 over that stretch.

And if you're keeping score at home, the O's need to go 53-44 (.546) the rest of the season to avoid a 10th straight losing season.

Welcome Back To Real-O-ty

There are likely more than a few O's fans who used the Birds' recent winning streak as a way to re-convince themselves this is the year Baltimore nips that nasty little run of 9 straight losing seasons. Well, Birdbrains, welcome back to reality. Your team isn't that good. Miguel Tejada isn't going to go yard in every one of your remaining games, and this isn't the year you break .500.

They took 2 of 3, at home, from Oakland, swept the Royals in KC, and took game one of a four-game set in Los Angeles to win a season-high 6 straight and to pull to .500. They allowed 12 runs in those 6 games, and scored 40 runs. Then came the last three games of the LA series. Now they're back to 3 games below and have King Felix in Seattle tonight.

They need to go 55-50 the rest of the way to break the streak and they have a decent chance to grab a few of those wins their next three series, with sets against Seattle, Colorado, and Washington. But then things get awfully tough before (and after) the All-Star break. They have a home and home with Arizona, they go to San Diego, host LA, the Yanks, and visit the White Sox before a series at Texas. My guess is they win about 13 times in those 31 games (with most coming against their first three opponents). That would put their record at 40-48 at the break, meaning they would need to win 42 of their 74 games in the second half , where they have 28 games (38% of their schedule) against the Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.

Yes, O's fans enjoy the next 9 games because it gets a whole lot tougher from there on out. Then again, there's always next year.

O, Boy

The Baltimore Orioles' 14-game, early-season-litmus-test is officially in the books. And the test results aren't looking good, folks.

They dropped both games at home against the A's and Red Sox, got swept by the Tigers, and went 3-4 in a home-and-home against the Indians for an overall record of 3-11. To make matters worse, they'll likely be without promising lefty Adam Loewen for the rest of the season. He has a stress fracture in his left elbow. And shocker, Jaret Wright is also hurt. His perpetually sore right shoulder has him back on the DL. His season is also in jeopardy.

So where does that leave the O's? Well, to avoid a 10th straight losing season, Baltimore needs to go 68-62 the rest of the way with a rotation of: Bedard, Cabrera, Trachsel, Phil In The Blank, and Phil In The Blank, Jr. The Yankees are starting to win, the Sox are starting to hit, and the D-Rays have a few decent starters and (gasp!) a closer. It's not even mid-May, and the wheels are falling off the proverbial cart in Charm City, already.

You Can Make That...

1-9 in their last 10.

Shocker, the O's jumped out to a 2-1 lead early this afternoon, only to give up unanswered runs in the 5th and 6th. Steve Trachsel pitched his tail off, but Baltimore could only manage 6 singles and an RBI double all afternoon. They had a man on second with one out, down a run, and the top of the order coming up in the 7th and couldn't get him home.

They also went 0-6 with a walk and 3 K's in the 8th and 9th.

They need to go 70-64 (.522) the rest of the way home to top .500 this season. I'll go on the record right now saying I don't think they can do it.

O, Crap

This post is primarily in response to this and to this. At one point, I too predicted the Orioles would be a decent team, capable of breaking a decade-long-streak of losing seasons. But after their recent stretch of awful games against playoff contenders, I'm starting to wonder if I may have spoken too soon.

Since getting swept in unimpressive fashion by the Minnesota Twins (a playoff team last year, and a team that is, and will be in the mix this year) to open the season, Baltimore won 11 of 15 (so what if they were against the Royals, Blue Jays and Devil Rays among others?). At that point, they were 11-7 and looking like a team that could pitch, hit, and, most importantly, finish games.

But lying ahead was a critical stretch of games- an early-season litmus test against more teams like the Twins. These would give O's fans and the rest of the league a true sense of what this club is made of. Nine games into the current 14 game stretch, they are, as Brian Roberts put it, finding "a way to lose every night."

They are 1-8 in this stretch. They aren't hitting particularly well. They aren't pitching particularly well. And their bullpen, which was so good, has been hittable.

What's worse and perhaps most notable is how they're not finishing off games. In the last 9 games, the Orioles have yet to hold a team scoreless after the fifth. Not once. In that same time, they've allowed 28 runs in 32 innings from the 6th on. You ARE NOT GOING TO WIN if you consistently let teams (a) come back or (b) add to a small lead, late.

Now, the O's are 3 games below .500, with one against the Tigers and then four against Cleveland. They're in third place in a division where Boston still isn't really hitting and the Yankees are an injured mess. I expect those two anomalies to correct themselves. As for Baltimore, I'm not as optimistic.

This Jinx Brought To You Courtesy Of The Baseblogger

This came down on the AP wires, literally seconds ago...

BALTIMORE (AP) - Baltimore Orioles pitcher Kris Benson has a
torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder and will almost certainly
miss the 2007 season.
Benson's agent says a recent M-R-I revealed a partial tear. The
injury will require surgery, but the procedure has not yet been
scheduled.

Sorry O's fans. Maybe those playoff tickets are refundable.

The O's Woes Might Not Continue Long

The Baltimore Orioles impress me this year, and I'm a little scared because I'm not used to this sort of thing happening. After all, this organization is responsible for such recent disasters as "The Sammy Sosa Experiment," "We Want Sidney Ponson Back" and "Here's $37M Albert Belle, Please Stay Away From Camden Yards." Those moves and others have translated into 9 straight losing seasons. As a matter of fact, they've finished over.500 just 4 times since 1990. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and (last year) Blue Jays, doesn't help either.

All that aside, I really think this team is moving in the right direction for the first time in a while. They finally have a halfway respectable, fairly young, pitching staff. Erik Bedard is looking like he belongs at the front end of a big league rotation. Daniel Cabrera certainly has the stuff to be a number one, and the longer Leo Mazzone works with him, the closer I think he is to getting there (but, man those walk totals are absurd...this guy is the real life Nuke LaLoosh).

Jaret Wright also has great stuff, and now that he's out of New York, could be a nice surprise for the O's, provided he doesn't get hurt, which is no guarantee. Kris Benson is a serviceable number four. And Adam Loewen had an up-and-down 2006, but he did beat the Yankees twice, and he only turns 23 this season. He'll probably battle Hayden Penn and others for the number five spot. The fact that Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Russ Ortiz aren't around to make any starts this year, will also help immensely.

The bullpen should be better too, thanks to an old face and lots of new ones. Chris Ray made the sting of B.J. Ryan's departure a hurt a lot less. Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker and Scott Williamson should be solid additions to a staff that blew 21 saves last year.

Offensively, they're not that bad either. I'd love to see what Nick Markakis can do with a full season. If you take his second half of last year, and extrapolate it out over a full year, it works out to .312, 97 R, 38 2B, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 51 BB, 76 K. Those are All-Star numbers.

They just signed Corey Patterson and Brian Roberts to extensions. Patterson revived his career last year, hitting .276 and stealing 45 bases. Problem with him is, he strikes out so much (94 times last year, once every 4 times up for his career) that you can't hit him 1 or 2, you have to hit him last in the lineup. Roberts came back down to Earth last year, but .286, 85 runs, 10 homers and 36 steals is pretty good for a lead-off man, especially considering he was still recovering from his arm injury to start the season.

Miguel Tejada posted a career-high in batting average last year (.330) and is as steady as they come at short. Ramon Hernandez posted career bests in home runs, doubles and RBI. I also like the Jay Payton signing. He's always kind of been an "under-the-radar" kind of guy, but he has some pop, and hit .296 last year. He's kind of a Jeff Conine type player.

Their problems, as I see it, are at the corners, and DH. Melvin Mora had a dreadful 2006, and it's the second year in a row that he's declined a lot. He just turned 35, so this may be a sign of a career that's reaching the twilight years. I still find it remarkable that Kevin Millar/Jay Gibbons is the best they can do at first base. Gibbons just can't stay healthy, and when he is healthy, he's still an average power hitter (.277, 23 HR, 100 RBI in 2003, his only injury-free year). The days of thinking he's going to be a real threat to hit 30+ homers should be over, just as the days of thinking Kris Benson has Cy Young stuff are over. Millar may be a great teammate, but he's nothing special offensively either. He's hit .300 twice in 8 seasons, hit 20 HR twice, and he's never driven in 100. Plus, he's on the wrong side of 35. It blows my mind that with that little park, the O's can't attract some left-handed slugging first baseman to come play in Baltimore.

Then there's the Aubrey Huff signing. It should serve fans as a reminder that, while the ship is pointed the right way, it can still get thrown off course very easily. $20M over three years for a guy who is clearly not the same player he was a few years ago with the Devil Rays- bad birds, bad! Since 2003, Huff's production has dropped across the board to the point where he's now very average whether he's at first, DH or in the outfield (.267, 21 HR, 66 RBI with the Rays and Astros last year).

The O's are definitely at a disadvantage playing in the top-heavy AL East. But if their starters keep developing, if the offense does what it's capable of doing, and if the pen is decent, the 10th time might be the charm for Charm City. 82 wins isn't an unreasonable goal.