Perhaps it's a coincidence, or perhaps Juan Gonzalez was inspired by Sammy Sosa. Either way, it now seems Igor wants back in baseball.The similarities between Sosa and Gonzalez are remarkable. Both hail from Latin American countries (Gonzalez from Puerto Rico, Sosa from the Dominican). Both played right field. Both broke in with the Texas Rangers in 1989. Both were spectacular power hitters in their prime. Both won 6 Silver Slugger Awards. Both won the MVP in 1998 (Juan Gone also won the award in 1996, in what's considered one of, if not the worst vote ever, especially if you ask Alex Rodriguez). Both have been suspected, if not outright accused of using steroids during baseball's Juice Era. Both ended their careers in 2005 as shadows of their former selves. Both are in their late 30's now. And both struck out more consistently than a member of Best Buy's Geek Squad at the Playboy Mansion (Gonzo's career average is 5.2 AB's per K, Sosa's is 3.8).
The biggest difference between the two is that Sosa had nagging injuries at the end of his career, while Gonzalez had nagging and serious injuries almost his entire career. Gonzo played in 150 games just twice over 17 years, and those seasons were 6 years apart. Sosa did it 8 times, including 6 years in a row. I mentioned how their careers started and ended at the exact same time. Sosa ended up with more than 8,400 at bats. Gonzalez had almost 2,000 fewer.
Gonzalez says he wants to get to 500 home runs. I assume he thinks that if he can, he will be guaranteed a spot in Cooperstown. Personally, I think that stat has been cheapened of late, and is no longer the "Hall of Fame Golden Ticket" it once was.
Of the 20 players in the 500 home run club, 15 are in the Hall, and 5 are not. 3 of them (Barry Bonds, Sosa, and Ken Griffey Jr.) are still playing. Of that group, the only sure bet for induction is Griffey. Bonds are Sosa are already hurt by the "cloud of suspicion." And if that isn't enough to keep them out (and I don't think it is, but others may disagree) a federal indictment most certainly would be enough.
That leaves 2- Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. If the 2007 vote is any indicator, McGwire has a long way to go before he gets in, and he never actually tested positive. That means Palmeiro has zippy chance.
Then there are the guys closing in on 500. By my count, 7 have realistic shots to do it soon (remember, there are only 20 guys who have ever hit 500 home runs). They are...
Frank Thomas (487, age 38)Jim Thome (472, age 35)
Manny Ramirez (470, age 34)
Alex Rodriguez (464, age 30)
Gary Sheffield (455, age 37)
Mike Piazza (419, age 37)
Carlos Delgado (407, age 34)
The first four guys on that list should all reach 500 this year. But are they all Hall of Famers? Thome is probably the biggest question mark for me. He's been a great power hitter in both leagues, but he's never really won any awards. He just hits 40 home runs a year. I think the same thing applies to Sheffield and Delgado, although Sheff does have an MVP and a batting title.
After that, guys like Chipper Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Giambi are knocking on the door too (they're all within 150 of 500 with a fair amount of career left), and I don't think they're necessarily shoe-ins, even if they do make it to 500.
Back to Gonzo now. Aside from, what I assume is his thinking about 500 home runs equaling a spot in the Hall, he has another major problem. He doesn't have 495, or 485, or even 475 career bombs. He has 434. Gonzalez would have to find a team, make the team, stay healthy all year and have Sammy Sosa's 1998 season to reach 500 this year. So what Juan is really saying is that he wants to come back, and stay back in baseball. Judging by how long it took him to hit his last 66 home runs, he's going to need well over a thousand at bats. And judging by how long it took him to get those last thousand at bats, Juan is going to need to play well into his 40's. Unfortunately this simply isn't going to happen.
My opinion is, Sosa's comeback is a bad idea, and Gonzalez's is even worse.
3 comments:
I guess another question is who would want to watch that? Juan Gone was never a big fan favorite outside of the home fans. That's another big difference between him and Sosa, who was baseball's darling for a couple years. It might be sad to watch Sosa now, but Gonzo's attempt at a comeback is absolutely pitiful.
It seems like someone should've invested their money a little more wisely. There is no chance Gonzalez gets to 500.
Frank Thomas is a first ballot guy for me. When you have the third best career OB%, you need to be in the HoF. Especially when 1 and 2 are guys named Ruth and Williams. That's pretty good company, in what turns out to be a pretty important stat.
Thome should end up near 600. I think at 550+, he'll get in easily. Steroids or not, you ahve to be really good to hit 550+ HRs in your career.
And that brings me to McGwire. I wouldn't be surprised if McGwire comes really close, and maybe gets in next year. I think a lot of writers were making a statement this year with their vote. I expect there to be a sizeable number who decide they've taken their pounbd of flesh from McGwire, and now they need to honor what he accomplished. I would set the O/U on his percentage in the next vote at 60%.
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