With spring training just days away, and having already demonstrated with unparalleled potency my ability to jinx the living crap out of a team, I thought it was high time I came out with my predictions for the 2007 season. So here they are...
AL EAST
x-Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Every team in this division can hit, so it's going to come down to pitching, something the Red Sox have a lot of, at least when it comes to starters. The big X-Factor here is the closer position. Every team (even the Devil Rays for God's sake) knows who their closer is going to be...except Boston. Maybe it's Mike Timlin, maybe it's Craig Hansen, maybe it's Johnny Acquired In A Mid-Season Trade, I've even heard they're considering trying Joel Pineiro. Either way, bullpen-by-committee is not the recipe for success, especially in a tough division where you could argue that all 5 teams improved form 2006.
AL CENTRAL
x-Detroit Tigers
y-Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit has the same team as last year, plus Gary Sheffield. Their bullpen is scary and now, all their young arms know how good they are. Cleveland is way too talented to finish in 4th place again. Plus, they quietly had a good off-season adding Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon and bullpen help. The Sox and Twins both lost a major player in their rotation (Freddy Garcia and Brad Radke respectively), and Kansas City is going to be in last for the foreseeable future.
AL WEST
x-Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
LA's pitching staff could be even better than Boston's if Bartolo comes back healthy, if Escobar stays healthy and if Jered Weaver has another solid 2007. Oakland's success hinges on two guys- Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby. It's time for them both to show what they can do with a full, healthy season. If they can't stay healthy again, that might be your answer. Seattle should be better after adding some arms (Weaver, Batista, Ramirez, Reitsma) and some bats (Guillen, Vidro). And poor Texas still can't pitch, plus they lost Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa and Gary Matthews this off-season.
NL EAST
x-New York Mets
y-Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
The Mets have baseball's best offense, but they'd better hope Pedro can come back soon, and that Chan Ho Park is a decent stop-gap, because otherwise, they might run out of pitching by the All Star Break. The Phillies finally have a decent staff to compliment a fantastic offense. Florida will continue to overachieve considering their dollar-store payroll, Atlanta's losses outweigh their gains, and you already know I think the Nats will be baseball's worst team.
NL CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Yes, I am throwing up a Hail Mary here, but I really think with a healthy Derek Lee, a healthy Mark Prior (it's going to happen), Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Neal Cotts and Lou Piniella this team will be so much better than 2006, it has a legitimate shot at winning a very winnable division. Let's not forget, 83 wins won the Central last year, and the Cardinals lost 60% of their starting rotation, and Houston lost Roger Clemens (plus Brad Lidge remains a head case). The Reds are good but not great (they're especially average offensively) Milwaukee is still young and Pittsburgh still can't pitch.
NL WEST
x-Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Personally, I love the Dodgers this year and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's an all-L.A. World Series. They have a terrific mix of veterans, youth, speed, and contact. They're just missing a true power hitter (with all apologies to Jeff Kent, Nomar and Luis Gonzalez). The Pads will pitch enough to stay in the race for a while, but they are very weak offensively. The D-Backs will win more games than people think because of the Marlin-like young talent and The Unit's return to the desert. The Giants will lose 35 games by a score of 2-1 because their offense is so bad, and much like the Rays in the AL East, the Rockies are simply out-classed in terms of pitching.
My World Series, for the record, Dodgers over Red Sox (yes they do eventually get a closer) in 6 games.
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7 comments:
I didn't even know Johnny Acquired In A Mid-Season Trade was on the trading block. If he is I'm sure the Yankees will make a run at him.
I just checked redsox.com and believe it or not J.D. Drew is still healthy.
...but you have me nervous.
I like Cleveland too. They'll score enough to be in contention. And I think Jhonny Peralta is the 2007 Justin Morneau. Young star who started strong, only to fizzle in his second year. Peralta is going .285-100-30-100 this year.
I've got the Indians at 15-1 to win the AL. There's no way they should be less than even money (13-1) and should likely be higher.
two questions:
Kenny, what round are you going to draft prior?
Frese, what round are you going to draft johnny p?
(In a Mel Kiper Jr, Draft expert voice) Mark Prior still has lots to prove to Cubs fans and to Fantasy Baseball fans, but let's not forget, when this guy has been healthy, he's been good.
For his career, he's averaging more than 10 K's per 9, more than 3 K's per walk, and he owns a 3.51 ERA.
I'm not sure if he was healthy for one minute in 2006, so let's just forget about last year entirely.
In 2005 and 2004, he turned in very solid performances, albeit in abbreviated seasons. And of course in 2003, he had people talking Hall of Fame when he went 18-6 with 245 K's and a 2.43 ERA in 30 starts (at the age of 22).
Everybody seems to forget that early in his career, Jose Reyes couldn't keep his legs healthy. People were ready to write him off as a bust. Now look at him, he's a top-10 fantasy pick. I'm not saying Prior's there yet, but if he can make 30 starts this year, and 30 more next year, people will forget about his recent trips to the DL awfully fast.
I don't know who the Red Sox 2007 closer is, but given the way they spent on pitching, I'm pretty sure I know who their 2008 closer is.
Mariano Rivera
Even if it costs them $15 million, what better way to stick it to the Yankees?
I suppose that Hansen could go 44 for 47 in save opp's this year, with an ERA under 2, at which point they wouldn't bother with Mo. But if their closer is at all mediocre this year, the bidding war next offseason will be fun.
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