First- where things stand. If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser
While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:
C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin
My first impression is how similar these rotations are. Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end. So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.
Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story. When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia. C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September). Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.
At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start). He also led the team in strikeouts. Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included). So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox. And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right. But Beckett is still better than Burnett. So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.
I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team. For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot. For the Yanks- same thing. Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.
As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why. Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season. He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good. His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason. Is he worth what he got? No. Is he a lock to make 32 starts? No. But will he work nicely here? I think so. And it's the same thing for Dice-K. He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable. It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy. His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble. But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent. Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.
The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte. Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one. It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67. For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning. Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season. That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3. With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect. He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee. With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4. The problem is, he turns 38 in June. To his credit, he had a great second half of '09. But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason. Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade. The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health. Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season. But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.
At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it. In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1. He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts. He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch. We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.
In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing. In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance. He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings. What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever. Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances. But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1. So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there. Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen. Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved). In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500. So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories. New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.
Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations? Hard to say. I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible. For now, I give the edge to Boston. We'll see what happens in 101 days.
1 comment:
I pretty much agree with your assessment. One disagreement though is that as Yankees fan I was not at all disappointed in his 2009 season. He was 23 years old and I think that you have more minor league experience than he does, the fact that he kept his head above water in the toughest division in baseball is more than enough for me. And now that he no longer has the constraints of getting jerked around by an innings limit I expect several consecutive years of improvement.
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