Tuesday, October 2, 2007

It's Hardware Time, Part 3: Rookie Of The Year

American League

Unlike in the National League where there are two fantastic candidates, there really isn't a sexy pick for ROY in the AL. Dice-K was fairly disappointing given all the hy
pe (4.40 ERA, 15-12), Hideki Okajima struggled mightily down the stretch (4.56 post-All-Star ERA), Delmon Young's numbers were decent but not eye-popping (.288, 13, 93) and while Alex Gordon showed some promise, he's not the next A-Rod, yet (.247, 15, 14 steals).

So where does that leave us? Well it leaves us with a scrappy middle infielder who played terrific defense and was a tough out all season long- Dustin Pedroia.

He hit .181 in April but the signs were there that this guy could play. In that otherwise terrible month, he had 10 walks and just 6 K's. For the season, he finished with 47 free passes and 42 wiff
s to go along with a .317 average (10th in the AL), .380 OBP and 39 doubles (14th in the AL).

Then there's his defense, which was another asset for the Sox this regular season. His 6 errors were 4th fewest in the league among second baseman, as was his .990 fielding percentage. In other words, this guy can play ball. He's not going to be a fantasy stud by any means, but almost every team in the league would love a second baseman who will hit .300, put the ball in play, have gap power, and play good D. That's exactly what Pedroia does.

National League

In the last 20 years, this league has produced Rookie of the Year flops like Jason Jennings, Scott Williamson, Todd Hollandsworth, and Jerome Walton. That's not the problem this year. This year, there are two guys who are both really good, should both play for a long time and both deserve the award- Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

Braun is already drawing comparisons to Albert Pujols, and with good reason. In his 2001 debut, Fat Albert went .329/37/130 in 161 games. This year in 113 games, Braun went .324/34/97, good for 5th in the league in homeruns, and 8th in average. Extrapolate that out over 162 games and you're looking at a .324/49/140 season with 22 steals. Remind you of a certain AL MVP candidate, 13 years into his career?

Braun's splits are splendid too. He hit .328 with 60 RBI in 128 AB's with men in scoring position, and had a 1.066 OPS with men in scoring position and 2 outs. Close and late he also hit .300 and in September when the Brewers were trying to win a pennant, he went .308/9/29.

The knock against Braun is his defense. He was the worst fielding third baseman in the NL, and the only one with a sub-.900 fielding percentage. His 26 errors led the league. And again, that was in a fraction of the season. Don't be surprised if he's a corner outfielder in '08.

Then there's Tulowitzki. At this point in his career, he is probably more of a complete player than Braun, even though his offensive ceiling isn't nearly as high. Troy finished up at .291/24/99 with 104 runs scored. He also seemed to improve as the season went on, getting 37 of his 62 extra base hits in the second half, and flirting with .300. His "pressure splits" are not as good as Braun's though, nor was his September (.276/6/26).

But Braun's biggest weakness may be Tulowitzki's biggest strength- defense. He should win the NL Gold Glove after leading all major league shortstops with a .987 fielding percentage and turning 114 double plays. His 11 errors were second best at the position behind Omar Vizquel. And his range factor (which is putouts plus assists divided by innings) was also number one in baseball among shortstops.

So if Braun's best case scenario is Albert Pujols, then Tulowitzki's may be a better offensive version of Cal Ripken Jr, minus the streak. The Iron Man is already in the Hall, and Pujols is headed there, so you can't go wrong either way. But I give the nod to Braun here. His season was just too superior offensively to snub. I wouldn't hate it if they split the award either.

1 comment:

Brian said...

clearly TT is money on D, and braun stinks, but you brought up the range factor.

there has never really been a stat that actually measures defense. and i dont think this is it either. the stat for me means very little. if you played defense only when derek lowe and wang pitched you would have a much higher range factor than guys who played behind fly ball pitchers. i guess the thought is in the end it averages out, but i dont think that is true, given you play the field behind the same pitchers in the same ballparks all year long.

really this has nothing to do with your post, just pointing out taht range factor isnt always a telling stat.