Awards, Still Watching And Waiting

At this time last year, just about all of the major awards were either completely decided, or down to a two-man race. A-Rod, we all knew, was going to breeze to the AL MVP. Jake Peavy, we all knew, was going to breeze to NL Cy Young Award. And for awards like AL Cy Young, NL MVP and NL ROY, it was basically a voter coin-flip between, respectively, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

If it was just that easy last year, it's just that hard this year because for a number of big awards, there is still no clear-cut favorite even though most teams have a little more than 10 games to play. That said, I'll start with some easy ones, like AL Cy Young. Cliff Lee and his baseball-leading win total and ERA should trump Roy Halladay for AL Cy Young, although it's worth pointing out Halladay has many more K's, a slightly better WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has been getting a run and a half less support than Lee all season.

For AL ROY, I'm still giving the nod to Evan Longoria, although this vote won't be as lopsided as it appeared a few weeks ago. Longoria has just 11 at-bats since August 8th because of an injury and in that time, his team's lead in the East has slipped from 3.5 games down to percentage points. Still, he's hitting, hitting for power, and playing great defense at third. That's not to take away from Jacoby Ellsbury who is closing in on 50 steals and 90 runs scored for the Sox, but I think Longoria is the more complete player right now.

And for NL ROY, Geovanny Soto (who really only has competition from Joey Votto of Cincinnati) should win this award unanimously. His OPS is .872, he has 58 extra base hits, and he's the All-Star backstop on the NL team with the best record.

Here's where it gets tricky...AL MVP. At the break, it looked like somebody from Texas was going to win this- either Ian Kinsler or Josh Hamilton. The problem now is, Kinsler hit under .260 in 120 post ASB at-bats before being shut down for the season following hernia surgery. And Hamilton, who's currently tied for the big league RBI lead, has seen his run production slow significantly from his torrid pre-break pace. That's allowed others to begin to enter the discussion, including Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Grady Sizemore.

Personally, I eliminate Quentin right off the bat because he broke his own hand on a bat in early September in the midst of a peannant race. I don't care if he is leading the AL in homeruns, I can't think of what's less valuable than that. Nobody has more RBI than Morneau, he has 3 more strikeouts than walks, and even though he's slowed in the second half too, his numbers close and late, with men on, and with men in scoring position are all excellent. Pedroia and Youkilis will likely hurt each other in the voting, although they've been the most consistent Sox hitters all year. Pedroia leads the AL in runs, has hit over .350 in the second half, his pressure splits (runners on, close and late) are very good, you have to love the 48 walks and 48 strikeouts, he plays a marvelous second base, and you might be surprised to learn he has more extra base hits than both Manny and A-Rod. Youkilis has more extra base hits than Pedroia to go along with 100+ RBI. His OPS is 4th in the AL, and his splits, while not quite as good as Pedroia, are still excellent. Then there's a man named Grady who will end up as the only 30-30 guy in the AL this year. The 93 walks are great and he's third in the AL in extra base hits. But he's slowed way down in the second half, his splits are good but not great, and he's not on a contender. If I had to vote today, I'd go...Morneau, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hamilton, Sizemore.

It gets even messier in the NL because it raises the question of exactly where astronomically productive mid-season acquisitions should fit into the discussion of awards that measure a full season's production in one league. With NL MVP, clearly Albert Pujols and his MLB-best 1.115 OPS is having another extraordinary year (not to mention the fact that he's doing it with one elbow). Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Ryan Braun...they've all put up unbelievable numbers too. Then there's Manny. And to use a tired phrase, he's just being Manny again. Since switching leagues and joining the Dodgers 42 games ago, he's hitting .395 with 14 homeruns, 43 RBI, 29 runs scored, and a 1.221 OPS. And perhaps more convincing, his team went from being 2 back in the NL West to 4.5 up in the NL West! But what about the 100 games where he was in the other league? That's more than 60% of the season. Does that count for nothing? Complicating matters even further is C.C. Sabathia. Not only is he a pitcher (and thus, according to some, not a viable MVP candidate) but he too is a mid-season league changer. But he's also been a game-changer. In his 13 starts for the Brewers, he's 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, a nearly 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and Milwaukee is 12-1 in those games. Can a player be more valuable than that? When he pitches, his team wins 92% of the time! Then again, he also made 18 starts for the Indians, which for a starting pitcher, accounts for slightly more than half a season.

And if you don't like Sabathia for MVP, how about Cy Young? There, he's competing against a smaller field of worthy candidates, but Tim Lincecum (17 wins, ML-best 237 K's, NL-best 2.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (NL-best 20 wins and unlike Lincecum, in a playoff chase) are stiff competition.

My feeling is, as good as Ramirez has been, there are other NL hitters who've (a) been in the league all season and (b) been as hot as Manny for as long of a stretch, like, for example, Mr. Pujols (see April and May, or the month of August). He's kept his team in the race (along with the help of Ryan Ludwick) a lot longer than they should have hung around, he's hitting over .370 in the second half, his splits are great, and his OPS is silly. It's almost 80 points higher than anyone else in baseball.

For Cy Young, Lincecum's numbers are by far the most superior of the group, but his team is 10 games back and really hasn't factored into the playoff picture all season. In other words, are his numbers worth inherently less than the numbers of a playoff-bound, or playoff-pushing pitcher? They just might be. Then again, Cy Young tends to focus more on the pitcher and not his team. That's why, no matter what happens, I think Lincecum should win this award.

But that doesn't mean C.C. gets shut out. By my math, he has 3 starts left this season, two of which will come against the division leading Cubs, and one of which will be on the second-to-last game of the season. If he wins all three he'd finish 12-0 with an ERA right around 2.00. If that happens, and the Brewers make the playoffs, I don't see how you give the MVP to somebody else. He will have been a Brewer for half the season, he will have put this team on his back and gotten them into the playoffs (again, if he finishes 3-0, the Crew will be 15-1 in his starts). No other NL player will have had such a meaningful impact on his team in 2008. Of course, if he gets bombed tonight, all bets are off. But somehow, I doubt that's going to happen.