Down The Stretch They Come!

Not all teams have the luxury of being able to rest and set up their playoff starting rotations like the L.A. Angels. Others (in fact almost all the other potentially playoff-bound teams) have something to play for, even though there's only a week and a half left in the season.

In the AL East, Tampa now has a full one game lead over the Sox with yet another late-inning rally last night- the third time they've done it to them in the last 8 days! These two hook up again tonight (Wakefield vs. Garza) but don't play again in the regular season, and may not play each other again until spring training '09. Including tonight, the Sox have 11 games left, with 7 at home to close the season when the Indians and Yankees come to town. For Tampa, they host Minnesota then end on the road with 4 in Baltimore and 4 in Detroit. So by virtue of the home/away factor the rest of the way, plus the fact that the Rays have 13 games left rather than 11, I'll give the edge to the Sox here and guess they'll sneak in and win the East, with Tampa getting the Wild Card. Although if the Rays rough up Wakefield tonight, they'll be a full two up with 12 to go and that could complicate things. By the way, they're 7-1 against the Sox at home this year.

In the Central, the Sox got back to their winning ways and the Twins stuck to their losing ways, enabling Ozzie Guillen and Co. to extend their lead to 2.5 games. They have two more in New York, followed by an easy-to-look-past series in Kansas City before heading to Minnesota for what will likely be a do-or-die 3 game series for the Twins. They return home for their final 3 of '08 against Cleveland...a total of 11 games. Minnesota has a tough road ahead. Tonight, they'll try to avoid a sweep and a 4-game losing streak at Cleveland and it won't be easy because Cliff Lee is on the bump. Then, it's off to Tampa for 4 before closing out their season at home with those 3 against the Sox and then another 3 against KC. Unless they right the ship soon, their series with the Sox might be "sweep or bust," so the smart money's on Chicago to win the Central.

In the NL East last night, the Phillies, winners of 5 in a row, leap-frogged the Mets, losers of 3 in a row. And there's not much reason to think they can't continue their hot play the next 11 games. They have two more in Atlanta, then 3 in Florida, before a pair of 3-game home series with the Braves and Nationals. The road series with the Fish could be tricky, but everybody else is well below .500. The Mets have made things especially difficult on themselves because this is the so-called easy part of the remainder of their schedule. They have 2 more at Washington, then 3 at Atlanta. But those two clubs alone have taken 4 out of 5 from them since Saturday. Then for 4 games, they host the team with the NL's best record- the Cubs, before finishing up at home against the Marlins. It crazy to think it could happen again this year, but I don't see the Phillies squandering their lead, small as it is. But that doesn't mean the Mets will be golfing in October. They'll just need some help from the NL Central.

In that division, the Cubs all-but have it locked up. But the real drama surrounds the Wild Card. And what's interesting is- nobody seems to want it. The Brewers lost one of C.C. Sabathia's starts last night for just the second time since acquiring him (which is also their 5th loss in a row) and are now a half game behind New York (losers of 3 in a row) for the Wild Card. Houston (losers of 3 in a row) is now 3 back, and the Cardinals (losers of 6 in a row) and Marlins (winners of 6 in a row) are teetering on the brink of elimination as they sit 5 back. Milwaukee has 2 more at Chicago, 3 at Cincinnati, then 3 at home with Pittsburgh and 3 at home with those Cubs again. They're 9 back of the Cubs right now, so all those late-season games with the division leader are more of a punishment than an opportunity to make up ground. The 'Stros are on the road with the Fish, then close with 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 versus Cincinnati and 3 versus Atlanta. St. Louis, like the Mets, picked a bad time to hit the skids because the rest of their schedule is significantly harder than the stretch they're in right now. They have 2 more at Cincinnati, 3 at Chicago, 4 at home with Arizona (which will likely be must-wins for both teams) and finally 3 at home with the Reds. Getting swept at Pittsburgh last week killed them. As for the hot Marlins, don't count them out yet- but it's hard to imagine them continuing their "2007 Rockies" act much longer. They have 2 more with Houston (they could move into 3rd place in the Wild Card if they win both of these), then they host the Phillies, visit the Reds for one, then end up at the Reds and at the Mets. Wouldn't it be crazy if the Marlins ended the Mets season, in New York, again in 2008? This race is a bit too close to call at the moment, but with C.C. and Ben Sheets getting the ball for 5 of the Crew's last 11, I like their odds.

Out West, it's much less complicated. The Dodgers are up 4.5 games with 11 to play, and those 11 are against the Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The division is theirs to lose. Arizona's pair of extra inning losses with the Reds sting a little bit extra now, especially on the heels of being swept in L.A. And even with Webb and Haren seemingly back on track, they'll need to win just about all of their remaining 12 games to make the postseason.