This Is Just Nuts!

In honor of Ryan Braun's Brandy-Chastain-like celebration last night, I was going to call this post "Crunch Time" because obviously somebody's been doing his core-strengthening exercises. But I think the headline I went with works too.

Here's the deal. There are three days left in the regular season. That's it. And yet somehow, we are still waiting to find out who will win two different divisional races and one Wild Card spot.

Last night, the Twins beat the White Sox in extra innings to complete an improbable sweep and now lead the AL Central by half a game. They're at home this weekend against the Kansas City Royals. The Sox are also home this weekend against Cleveland, and then have to host a make-up game Monday against the Detroit Tigers, although there's a chance it won't mean anything if the Twins win one more game than the Sox do this weekend.

Then in the NL, the Mets and Brewers both had walk-off wins at home, meaning the Wild Card stalemate continues. And the Phillies had an off-day, so they still lead the East by a full game.

So in short, we have 3 playoff spots open and 5 teams with very real shots at earning them.

Back to the AL, the Twins will throw Francisco Liriano (1-0, 4.56 ERA in his last two starts) against Kyle Davies (2-0, 1.20 ERA in his last two) tonight. Saturday, it's Glen Perkins for the Twins (9.42 ERA in September) against Gil Meche (10 of his last 13 appearances have been quality starts). Then Sunday, it's Minnestoa's Scott Baker (winner of his last 3 decisions) against Brandon Duckworth (who's thrown back-to-back quality starts). The Royals are not pushovers. In fact, they've won 12 times in their last 15 games, so the Twins aren't going to sweep them. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals go 2-1, meaning the Twins would finish up at 88-74.

The Sox, who've lost 7 of 10, will go with John Danks tonight (13 consecutive scoreless innings) against rookie Scott Lewis (who's won his first 3 big league starts). Saturday, it's Javy Vazquez (coming off back-to-back losses) against rookie Zach Jackson (up and down since being acquired in the Sabathia trade). And then Sunday it's a real treat with Mark Buehrle (5 straight quality starts) against Cliff Lee (who lost Tuesday for the first time since July 6). Monday's game against the Tigers is scheduled to be Gavin Floyd (5.20 September ERA) against Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season). Before dropping 3 of 4 in Boston, the Tribe had won 7 in a row and the Tigers would like nothing more than to ruin Chicago's season (it's really all they have left to play for), so a 1-3 finish for the Northsiders is not out of the realm of possibility. My guess is, they finish 87-75 and miss October by 1 game.

In the NL, the Phillies host the Nats for 3. They have Joe Blanton (3-0 in his last 3 decisions), Jamie Moyer (5-0 in his last 5 decisions), and then Cole Hamels (2.98 ERA post All-Start break) slated to throw against rookie Collin Balester (3 quality starts in 14 tries the year), John Lannan (2 earned in his last 14 IP), and Odalis Perez (fresh off back-to-back quality starts). I think the Phillies easily win the series, and could even sweep. So at 92-70 or 91-71, they'll win the East.

That leaves the Mets and Brewers to slug it out for the Wild Card. New York hosts Floirida, who finished their season last year. The Mets will go with Mike Pelfrey (7 quality starts in last 8), rookie Jonathon Niese (1 great start, 2 bad starts in his brief career) and Johan Santana (6-0, 2.38 ERA since the break) against Chris Volstad (3 earned or fewer in each of his last 5 starts), Ricky Nolasco (11 straight quality starts) and Scott Olsen (3.38 ERA in September). I think the Mets will lose Saturday and win Sunday, so it all comes down to tonight. Pelfrey v. Volstad is too close to call right now. So they'll end up either 90-72 or 89-73, pending tonight's outcome.

Finally, the Brew Crew hosts the Central-champion Cubs, who really have nothing to play for and could adopt a "don't get hurt" mentality in this series. In other words, it would appear Milwaukee has the advantage. But they will throw Jeff Suppan (10.47 ERA this month) against NLDS Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster (2.57 ERA since the break) tonight, David Bush (6 IP or fewer in his last 3 starts) against Ted Lilly (7 IP or more in his last 3 starts) Saturday, and then C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 1.78 ERA since being traded, but making his 4th start in 13 days) against Jason Marquis (who lost to the Brewers a week and a half ago) in the finale. Certainly Suppan against Dempster appears to favor the Cubs as does the Bush/Lilly matchup Saturday. Sunday is a tough call. Sabathia's been great, but he's been a bit more human this month (2.67 ERA) and you have to wonder if pitching on short rest for the 3rd turn in a row will take a toll on his stuff. Then again, will Lou Piniella play all his starters for all 9 innings? And will his pitchers be allowed to go deep into games? I know he doesn't want to get swept going into the playoffs, but a win and two losses in these unimportant games would be perfectly acceptable. My prediction is, the Cubs win tonight, lose Saturday, then lose Sunday, making Milwaukee 90-72. It sure will be fun to scoreboard-watch Sunday though as two of the best pitchers in the game try to propel their teams into October, but in my mind, the Brewers have a slight advantage over the Mets as we close out the season.