Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Monthly Awards


MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.298, 35, 103, 11)
These are good numbers for a whole season (and not all that different from the .290, 35, 121, 15 he put up last year) and yet he has all of August and September to pad them. Nobody's even close to him right now, despite the fact that he's in a slump.

MVP, NL - Jimmy Rollins (.296, 20, 65, 19)
This race is really wide open. This award is no longer Jose Reyes' to lose because, statstically speaking, he's the third best shortstop in the NL behind J-Roll and Hanley Ramirez, even though they are on second and fourth place teams. Chase Utley was having an MVP year, but he's on the shelf. Miguel Cabrera and Matt Holliday are also having great years, but their teams will likely be out of the race very soon. Eric Byrnes is having a great year for a contender, but c'mon, Eric Byrnes for MVP? Prince Fielder is another good player on a good team, but his July production was poor (3 homeruns, 11 RBI). With a strong last two months, Ryan Howard could walk away with this one again. But I'm going with Rollins here because of his rare combination of power and speed, the fact that he's leading the league in runs, and he's third in extra base hits. Plus, who doesn't like it when a guy misses the All-Star team, but wins the MVP?

Cy Young, AL - Erik Bedard (10, 175, 3.05, 1.09)
I know I've touched on this before, but nobody has really had a better year than Bedard so far. He leads baseball in strikeouts, his ERA and WHIP are fantastic, and the O's have cost him a few wins. I don't think he will win this award because there are too many other talented guys out there (Haren, Santana, Beckett, Sabathia) but if he keeps it up, he should.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (10-5, 2.41 ERA, 144 K's)
Chances are, a Padre is going to win this award, it's just a question of whether it's Peavy or Chris Young. But I give the edge to Peavy here because he has more K's, he's pitched more innings, and unlike Young, he's healthy (even though Young's isn't an arm injury). Peavy is also second in the NL (to Young) in ERA, second in the NL in quality start percentage (Brad Penny's number one) sixth in batting average against, fourth in on base percentage against, and second in OPS against (Young is leading the league in all those categories). Here's why I'm not a huge Young fan. He's pitched more than 6 innings just 11 times in his 20 starts. Peavy's done it 14 times in 21 starts. Young averages just under 6 innings pitched per start. Peavy averages almost 6 2/3 per start. To me, part of a pitcher's value is his ability to go deep into games, give his bullpen a rest, and give his team a chance to win- something Peavy does much better than Young.

ROY, AL - Jeremy Guthrie (7-3, 2.89 ERA, 88 K's)
Easy Sox fans. Dice-K's been good, but Guthrie's been better. If you look at Guthrie's numbers since becoming a starter, then extrapolate them out over 22 starts, which is how many Mr. Matsuzaka has made this year, here's how they compare: Guthrie would be 8-4, with a 2.44 ERA, .204 BAA, and 102 K's, while Dice-K is 12-8, with a 3.75 ERA, .244 BAA, and 142 K's. Guthrie also holds runners on much better than his opponent here. Wow, an Oriole winning Cy Young, and ROY. Maybe the future isn't so bleak in B-More after all.

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.347, 18, 50, 10)
With Hunter Pence hurt, this is as easy as AL MVP. Braun's numbers were already better across the board before HP went down. Now the difference is even more glaring, and Braun still has fewer at-bats and he's a few months younger than Pence. Maybe David Wright doesn't have third base at the All-Star game locked down for the next 10 years after all.

1 comment:

Eric said...

I kind of agree on Guthrie at the end of July, but for some reason I can't shake the feeling that by the end of September he's going to have an era in the 3.70 range and a record around .500. Still a very good rookie year but maybe not ROY status.