Milemarkers And Speed Bumps

Yesterday, Barry Bonds took two pretty big steps forward in his quest to break Hank Aaron's all-time homerun record, snapping an 0-21 drought with career bombs 752 and 753 in Chicago. Two more jacks- he's tied. And with three more- the record, clouded by suspicion though it will be, is his.

On the other side of the milestone spectrum, the New York Mets spotted Tom Glavine a 6-spot in the top of the first, and gave him 3 more in the top of the third in LA, but he was pulled after just 2 innings, 68 pitches, 10 hits, and 4 earned, thus disqualifying him for his 299th carer win. The Mets ended up winning a barnburner, 13-9.

Both of these future Hall of Famers face difficult roads ahead in their quests for their respective statistical achievements. Bonds openly admits when he sees the umpire give the pitcher the new, special "Barry Bonds homerun baseball" it gets in his head (and in his defense, how would it not get in your head?). And Glavine, sad as it is to say, is seemingly at the end of the road, stuff-wise. He will almost certainly finish with a 4.00+ ERA this season for just the 5th time in 20 full seasons. And he's flirting with a career-worst in ERA, set back in 1988 with the Braves when he posted a 4.56 mark (ignoring the 50 innings he threw in his rookie season). I submit as further proof his increasing walk totals and his decreasing strikeout totals.

There's enough season left that barring injury, both of these 40-plus-ers should be able to reach their marks this year. But the question now is, who's going to have a tougher time, Bonds or Glavine?

Conventional wisdom would say it's a whole lot easier for a slugger to hit 3 homeruns than it is for a good pitcher to win 2 games. An everyday player, and Bonds is almost one these days, has an opportunity to hit a homerun with every plate appearance, whereas a starting pitcher like Glavine only has a chance to pick up a win every fifth team game. Plus, hitting a homerun requires the batter to have one good swing, one time, whereas to get a win, a pitcher needs to work at least 5 innings, have his team score more runs than he's allowed, and the bullpen can't squander the lead. In other words, Barry Bonds doesn't need to rely on his teammates at all to hit a homerun, whereas Tom Glavine very much needs to rely on his teammates to get a win.

But we're not talking about any 3 homeruns, or any 2 wins. We're talking about 756 and 300. And that, to me, is where this argument gets interesting. With each homerun Bonds hits, the pressure, attention, and scrutiny will intensify exponentially. That simply won't happen for Glavine. Sure it will be the story when he gets to 299, and each subsequent time he goes for 300, but it won't even be a story on the 4 other days he doesn't pitch. He can rest mentally those days and focus on baseball only. But Bonds will get no reprieve. If he plays tonight and hits one, everybody will start to ask him about 755. If he plays and doesn't hit one, everybody will ask him about 754. And if he doesn't play, everybody will ask him when he will play again, so he can hit 754. The reason for all this is because nobody's been where Barry is trying to go, whereas 22 pitchers have been where Glavine is trying to go. It won't be long before ESPN starts breaking into its regular programming to bring the world Barry Bonds' latest at-bat live, as he goes for history. This will happen for every single one of his at-bats, until he gets to 756. You can bet the same will not happen for Glavine.

So while I think Bonds will hit his 3 before Glavine wins his 2, I think Bonds will have a much tougher time getting there. And with each homerless at-bat, it will only get more difficult. What's interesting about these two statistical quests though is the fact that it's no sure bet we'll ever see 756 or 300 again.

Among hitters, Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey Jr. are the two closest, but I don't think either of these guys has another 150 jacks in them, given their proximity to 40. And at age 39, Frank Thomas most certainly does not have another 250 in him. A still-31-year-old Alex Rodriguez is the best bet, but like "The Big Hurt," he's only about two-thirds of the way to Bonds, and Bonds is still playing. Jim Thome (36, 487), Manny Ramirez (35, 484), Gary Sheffield (38, 477), and Carlos Delgado (35, 423) all seem like locks for 500, but not necessarily 600. Realistically, that leaves Andruw Jones (30, 361) and Vladimir Guerrero (32, 352) both of whom aren't even halfway there yet.

The prospects are even more bleak among pitchers. Does 43-year-old Randy Johnson have 16 more wins in him? Personally, I don't think he does. If you look at his struggles to stay healthy this season, there's no sure bet he'll pick up 4 or 5 more wins in 2007, meaning he would have to win more than 10 if he returns in 2008. It won't matter because he's a Hall of Famer even without 300 on his resume. But if Johnson doesn't get to 300, it could be a long time before anyone else does. Mike Mussina (38) needs 57 more wins. That won't happen. David Wells (44) needs 65...zippy chance. Same story for Jamie Moyer (44, 223), Curt Schilling (40, 213), Kenny Rogers (42, 210), and John Smoltz (40, 202). If 35-year-old Pedro Martinez didn't have a 50-year-old right arm and body, his 206 wins would be a good bet to turn into 300, but now it doesn't look so good. And after Andy Pettitte (35, 191), and Bartolo Colon (34, 146), the only four pitchers under 35 with at least 120 wins are Tim Hudson (31, 129), Kevin Milwood (32, 129), Livan Hernandez (32, 128), and Jason Schmidt (34, 128). Then you get into mega-projection territory with guys like Roy Oswalt (29, 106), Roy Halladay (30, 105), Mark Buehrle (28, 104), CC Sabathia (26, 94), and Johan Santana (28, 89).

So whether you like them or hate them, cheer on Bonds and Glavine as they go for the record books. It could be the last time we see something like this ever again.