I know the award was given out a few days ago, but I'm inclined to think the BBWAA got it wrong when Jimmy Rollins edged out Matt Holliday for the 2007 NL MVP. Here's why...First of all, both players were clearly the MVPs of their own teams, both of which came back from the dead in September to make an improbable playoff appearance, so that's a push. It's not like one guy's team made the postseason and the other's didn't.
With that said, here are there basic numbers from 2007. Holliday hit .340 with a .405 OBP, 36 homeruns, 137 RBI, 11 steals, and 120 runs scored. Rollins hit .296 with a .344 OBP, 30 homeruns, 94 RBI, 41 steals, and 139 runs. Just looking at that, I don't think there's any question Holliday's overall offensive numbers were better. He also outslugged Rollins by more than 70 points, had more walks, and a few more extra base hits.
I know a lot has been made of Rollins' defense and that's certainly a factor to consider in all of this. J-Roll won his first Gold Glove in 2007 after committing just 11 errors at shortstop and turning 110 double plays. Here's the problem. Two other NL shortstops finished with higher fielding percentages (Tulowitzki and Vizquel) and two other NL shortstops (Tulowitzki and Wilson) turned more double plays. Rollins finished 6th in the league in "range factor" which is putouts plus assists divided by innings, and he finished 6th in the league in "zone rating" which is some STATS, Inc. measure of the batted balls a player reaches. In other words, Rollins won the award after having an excellent, but not necessarily a "clearly-best-at-his-position" kind of year. And you know what? Matt Holliday did too, albeit at a much easier position. His 3 errors were second among NL left fielders, his 7 outfield assists were seventh, he had the second best fielding percentage, the 5th best range factor, and the best zone rating. He also had 20 more total chances than any other NL left fielder. But he didn't win the Gold Glove because the voters chose 3 center fielders (Beltran, Rowand, Jones) and a right fielder (Francoeur). So perhaps the defensive gap between Rollins and Holliday has been overstated. You still have to give the edge to Rollins, but it's not a complete cakewalk.
Now let's look at a few splits. To me, these numbers are more telling than any others when it comes to a player's true "value" to his team. These are the numbers that show whether a player came up big when it counted (late in games, late in the season, with men on base, with 2 outs), or whether he just padded his stats once the game was already decided. Holliday hit .330 in August, .367 in September, and .407 the last week of the season. Rollins hit .296, .298, and .375. In terms of OBP over that time period, Holliday went .403, .448, .515...Rollins went .371, .333, and .400. With men on base, Holliday hit .332 with 119 RBI. Rollins hit .314 with 74 RBI. With men on and 2 out, Holliday hit .337 with a 1.026 OPS. Rollins hit .261 with an .842. With runners in scoring position, Holliday hit .333 with 94 RBI and a .947 OPS. Rollins was .272, 64, .877. "Close and late," which is defined as 7th inning or later and either up a run, tied, or with the tying run on deck, Holliday hit .295 with a .935 OPS, Rollins hit .255 with an .808 OPS. And while half of Holliday's homeruns were solo shots, two-thirds of Rollins' round-trippers were.I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Matt Holliday was the most valuable player in the National League in 2007, but for some reason, Jimmy Rollins was voted the Most Valuable Player.
2 comments:
Let me preface all this by saying that I probably would have voted for Holliday. BUt Rollins would have been so close a second, that I don't think it was wrong that he won.
One, the defensive gap between a good SS and a good LF cannot be overstated. I'm sure that Holliday fares well against other NL LFs. But that doesn't mean he's making nearly the defensive contribution that a Gold Glove SS is.
Two, I'm surprised you dug into their splits, but not into the home/road splits. Holliday's were outrageous. Away from their home park, who had a better OPS? Turns out, it was the same (.859). Holliday hit 25 of his 36 HR's at home. Holliday's home OPS was 1.157, his road was .859. Away from Coors field he was a slightly better than average hitter. So before we go lauding Holliday's offensive numbers, know that he piled them up in Coors field. It may not be the homer box it once was, but it is still an offensive Mecca.
Three, don't go quoting range factor. Not a good stat. If I played SS for a team that had Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb and Chien Ming Wang as starters even I would have a good range factor.
Like I said, I would have voted for Holliday, but I can defend the Rollins selection. As I said in another conversation, this is equivalent to Ichiro winning the 2001 AL MVP over Jason Giambi. I think it's probably wrong, but it's close enough, I don't mind.
And another thought I had about Holliday's defense today. Sure he's better than other NL LFs. But atop the Zone Rating for NL LFs are:
Holliday
Eric Byrnes
Geoff Jenkins
Alphonso Soriano
Luis Gonzalez
Adam Dunn
Josh Willingham
Jason Bay
Sure, Holliday may be the best of that group. But the fact that Eric Byrnes (whose overrated defense we've discussed before) is second should indicate something.
That Holliday is the best from that field carries as much weight as saying Nick Swisher is the best hitter on the A's. The competition isn't very tough.
Meanwhile compare Rollins' competition at NL SS.
Vizquel
Tulowitzki
Reyes
K Greene
Furcal
Rollins
Maybe it's because we think more about a SS's defense than we do a LF's. But with all the baseball I watch, all 6 of those SS are better fielding SS than any of the people on the LF list are as LF's (if that makes any sense).
Side note: Looking at the defensive stats now, it's a travesty that Tulo didn't win the Gold Glove. I don't see how anyone could argue that Rollins was a better SS than Tulowitzki was.
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