Monday, July 14, 2008

It's In The Books

The first half is officially over and things are starting to return to normal. Chipper Jones is no longer flirting with .400 and the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer in first place in the AL East. Still, a lot can happen in the final 65-or-so games of the '08 season and many of the major awards races are still really close. But at this point, these guys have the upper hand...

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton (.310, 21 homeruns, 95 RBI)
I had to count some dangling chads on this one, because Hamilton and teammate Ian Kinsler are separated by an even smaller margin than Dubbya and Al Gore were in 2000. Both hitters are to thank for a surprisingly good Texas team, which enters the break above .500. Both have been incredible run producers, and both have been good in the clutch. I'm giving the edge to Hamilton though because in my opinion it's inherently harder to drive in runs than to score runs. Good pitchers bear down with men on base and in scoring position and bad pitchers pitch around the middle of the order. But no pitcher has been able to contain Hamilton, who enters the break on pace to drive in 162 runs this season. Only 11 players in major league history have driven in more in a single season and with the exception of Manny Ramirez in 1999, all of them played before 1938. That's how prolific Hamilton's been. That's why he's my mid-season MVP. Also receiving votes: Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez (.311, 23 homeruns, 80 runs, 23 steals)
What doesn't this guy do well? The answer is...not much. He's one of just two players at the break with 20+ homeruns and 20+ steals (a man named Grady is the other). He has more bombs, steals, and runs scored than Lance Berkman (and is on a competitive team) and has a higher average, more runs, and more steals than Chase Utley. At the beginning of the season, I was guilty of thinking that without Miguel Cabrera, Ramirez's numbers would drop off a bit. I won't make that mistake again. Also receiving votes: Berkman, Utley, Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)
Perhaps this is my Oakland bias shining through here. Or perhaps it's the fact that I like pitchers who don't allow baserunners. JD's WHIP is silly. A starter allowing 6 baserunners for every seven innings pitched is absolutely unheard of these days. And if you want further proof that he's been the best of the best, look at his game log. His "worst" outing of the year is either his May 18 start in Atlanta (3 earned over 5) or his May 1 start in LA (6 runs, but only one earned over 5, in a win against the Angels). Who cares if he doesn't get many strikeouts? His stuff is dirty. Also receiving votes: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 K's)
Talk about your classic case of "boy, that trade sure benefitted both teams," Volquez has been to the Reds what Josh Hamilton has been for the Rangers. He's leading the league in ERA, he's second in wins, and he's tied for third in K's. And you thought we'd be saying that about Johan Santana this time of year? Also receiving votes: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb

AL ROY - Evan Longoria (.275, 16 homeruns, 53 RBI)
As good as advertised, if not better. He's become Delmon Young before Delmon Young has become Delmon Young. Plus he runs a little bit (6 steals), plays a magnificent third base, and was selected to the All-Star game after just 300 big league at-bats. Not bad. Also receiving votes: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy

NL ROY - Geovanny Soto (.288, 16 homeruns, 56 RBI)
So Evan Longoria is an All-Star, huh? That's nice. Soto is an All-Star starter! He's far and away the cream of the NL newbie crop, and he's leading all rookies in OPS on a first-place team. The one chink in his armor? He's only thrown out 15 of 58 base stealers- third worst for qualifying NL catchers. As long as he keeps raking, I'm sure the Cubbies will deal with it. Also receiving votes: Kosuke Fukodome, Jair Jurrjens

AL LVP - Paul Konerko (.217, 9 homeruns, 34 RBI)
Yes, he's missed about 25 games. But the White Sox have missed his big bat in the other 68 he's actually played in. I was about to write that PK is a guy who's been a lock for 35 and 100+ batted in for the last few years, but that's actually not true. His homerun total will likely drop for a 4th straight year this season, his average- for a third straight year, and his RBI total- for a second straight year. These are surprising trends for a guy who turned just 32 in spring training. Also receiving votes: Robinson Cano. Edgar Renteria, Chone Figgins

NL LVP - Andruw Jones (.164, 2 homeruns, 10 RBI)
Usually, I don't like to give these awards to guys who've been hurt, but Jones has redefined what it means to be terrible. During a 7-year stretch from 2000 to 2006, he averaged more than 37 homeruns and 109 RBI a season. Last year when he fell off to 26 and 94 with a .222 average, I thought it was an abberation and so did the Dodgers. Now, I'm not so sure because he looks so absolutely clueless at the plate. Case and point- he's striking out once every 2.8 at bats this year and has twice as many wiffs as hits! He'll be a free agent at the end of the year and his list of potential suitors will be exponentially smaller than everyone would have imagined just a few years ago. Like Konerko, his rapid decline is also surprising considering he's just 31. Also receiving votes: Eric Byrnes, Ryan Zimmerman, Khalil Greene

AL Cy Anora - Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)
At the beginning of the season the thinking was, the A's would try to move Blanton, a useful innings eater, to a playoff contender right around the trade deadline. Now, they'd probably have a hard time trading him for a bucket of pearls and an L-screen. Blanton, while still making all his starts, has been remarkably hittable this season, although it's worth noting his secondary numbers from his '08 campaign are strikingly similar to his '06 campaign when he won a career-high 16 games. That ain't gonna happen this time around. And with all the young arms in Oakland (Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez) JB's days as a starter in the Bay Area may be limited. Also receiving votes: Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez

NL Cy Anora - Aaron Harang (3-11, 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
Harang was one of the few guys in baseball who has been consistentlty good, consistently healthy, and consistently unnoticed for the last few years. Unfortunately all three of those are out the window this year. He's on the DL now with a bad forearm. It's going to take a miracle for him to get to .500. And he's unlikely to hit 200 K's or 200 IP for the first time since 2005. Oh by the way, he's already allowed 20 homeruns. Also receiving votes: Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo (huh, maybe that's why the Reds are so bad), Roy Oswalt

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