The Todd Helton Deal

It appears the Red Sox and Rockies are in talks regarding Todd Helton. Hard to say when, or if the deal will happen, but for the sake of argument, let's assume it does. What should the Sox expect, and is it a good move for Colorado?

The biggest question is, how much concern should Helton's 2006 present for Beantown? TH turns 34 this August, and last year he posted career lows in average, homers, slugging, and OPS. Even worse, he hit a pedestrian .266 away from Coors Field. #17's set the bar pretty high during his career, but it's no sure thing he'll return to his typical .320+, 30+, 100+ that we saw like clockwork in the late 90's and early 00's

Now, the upside. Helton would easily be the best first baseman the Sox have had since Mo Vaughn (with apologies to J.T. Snow, Kevin Millar, Doug "That's My Ball" Mientkiewicz, Brian Daubach, Shea Hillenbrand, Rico Brogna, and others). He's a career .333 hitter, he struck out only 64 times last year (his lowest total since 2000), he's walked at least 90 times 7 years in a row, and he would bring three gold gloves to New England. He's never missed more than 20 games in a season, so his health isn't a concern, and unlike in Colorado, pitchers would have to throw to him (the Sox have a guy named Manny and a guy named Papi...ever heard of them?). And if Helton does have to leave the thin air of Colorado, Fenway isn't a bad place to go. Last year, the park was the 5th best in the bigs for hitters (Coors was #1).

Boston's potential line-up would be:

SS Julio Lugo
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
1B Todd Helton
C Jason Varitek
RF JD Drew
CF Coco Crisp
2b Dustin Pedroia

Not bad. In my estimation, that would be one of the most balanced and potent lineups in the league, if not the game (Yankees and Mets, and, to a lesser extent, White Sox and Cubs are also up there). So even though Helton is not without risks, I think the Sox would be happy.

Now, what about Colorado? The Rockies finished 12 games below .500 last year, 28 games under the year before, and 26 games under in 2004. In fact, they haven't had a winning season since 2000, so a big change might not be such a bad thing. But, in the off-season, they did trade their best pitcher (arguably), Jason Jennings. So trading a big bat just weeks after trading a big arm may not be the best way to go.

On a side note, this franchise is entering its 15th year in 2007, so I was wondering who's been their best pitcher in that time. And you know, it just may be Jennings. He's the franchise leader in wins (58), innings (941), starts (156) and he's 3rd in career ERA (4.74). In 2006, he also recorded the second-lowest single-season ERA in franchise history (3.78, Joe Kennedy's 3.66 in 2004 is best). As for the best single-season in Rockies history, Kevin Ritz's 17-11, 5.28 in '96 isn't bad, and neither is Jennings' 16-8, 4.52 Rookie of the Year season in 2002. But my money's on Pedro Astacio's 17-11, 5.04, 210 strikeout campaign in '99.

Anyway, Colorado seems to be a team building for the future, not trying to win now (Helton will help immensely with the later, not so much with the former). Their best players are relatively young (Matt Holiday, Brian Fuentes, Jeff Francis, Garrett Atkins, and ROY candidate Troy Tulowitzki). Plus, their bullpen could use the help. It blew 25 saves last year, more than all but 3 teams. More effective relief would also help their so-so staff get to Fuentes a lot easier (and Tavarez has pitched well in Colorado before in 2000). Add to that the fact that Mike Lowell's 2006 (.284-20-80) was pretty close to Helton's (.310-15-81) and he did it for about $7 million dollars less.

So if this deal does get done, it could be one of those "both teams benefit" trades, even though I think the Red Sox will benefit much more in the short-term.