"We're Planning On Winning The Division And We'd Rather Do It With Todd."

That's what Colorado Rockies owner Charlie Monfort said recently about the Todd Helton/Red Sox trade, which now appears to be dead.

What I would like to ask Colorado Rockies owner Charlie Monfort is, "You do you realize you're talking about the Colorado Rockies, right?"

This is a team that is 155 games under .500 in its 14 years in the league. This is a team that has won more games than it's lost 4 times in 14 years. This is a team that has never won the division before. This is a team that, unlike in the mid-90's when they were good, no longer has the likes of Larry Walker (helmet on straight or backward), Ellis Burks, Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla or Andres Gallaraga, each of whom were legitimate threats to hit .300+ with 40+ homeruns. This a team that just this off-season, traded one of the only guys who's actually pitched well for an extended period of time in the purple and black, Jason Jennings. So to quote Jim Mora in that Miller Lite commercial, "Playoffs!??! You want to talk about playoffs!??!"

I will concede the Rockies of '07 (with or without Helton) will be better than the Rockies of '05 and '04, (and possibly of '06, their best year since 2000). But to talk about winning the division on the heels of a largely snoozer of an off-season, and when every other team in your division made major moves especially to their starting rotations, is delusional.

Going from the top of the division last year to the bottom, Los Angeles upgraded an already-playoff-caliber pitching staff with Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf. They added proven veterans Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez in the outfield. And while they did lose quite a bit, (Greg Maddux, JD Drew, Eric Gagne, Kenny Lofton, Julio Jugo) they are better off with their respective replacements (Wolf or Schmidt, Andre Ethier, Takashi Saito, Pierre, and Rafael Furcal).

San Diego won the Wild Card last year, and much like the Dodgers, they did lose a few big names (Mike Piazza, Woody Williams, Josh Barfield, Dave Roberts). But much like the Dodgers, I think the players who will fill their shoes are mostly upgrades (Josh Bard, Greg Maddux, Marcus Giles, Mike Cameron). The Padres may have taken a little bit of a hit offensively, but their pitching staff (Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux) is going to be awfully good.

Speaking of pitching, San Francisco lost a big arm (Schmidt) but gained a big arm (Barry Zito). Shea Hillenbrand is out, Rich Aurilia is in. They have a new backstop (Bengie Molina), and replaced Moises Alou with Dave Roberts. Offensively, this team is weak, but again, pitching (Zito, Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris) is going to help them win a lot of 4-2 games.

Arizona recognized a problem (starting pitchers, other then Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb) and addressed it. The Big Unit is back in the desert. They'll have Livan Hernandez (who pitched a hell of a lot better with them than with the Nats in '06) for a full year. And they added Doug Davis. Offensively, they're like the Giants (weak) but also not like the Giants (very young, as opposed to very old).

Compared to the rest of the NL West, Colorado's projected starting rotation (Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Rodrigo Lopez, BH Kim, and Taylor Buchholz) looks like a Triple-A team. Francis is probably the only one with a bright future ahead of him, Cook and Kim have never won 10 games in a season, Lopez has had the most success of anyone in the past, but he was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last season, and Buchholz allowed 21 homeruns in 113 innings in '06. That should play well in Coors.

I don't blame Charlie Monfort for not wanting to trade Todd Helton for Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez, and a mid-range prospect. But talking about the playoffs now is only going to be sports writer fodder in September when the Rocks are closing the book on another .500 season at best.

For the record, here's my 2007 NL West prediction:

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies