Arms Race

If today was Sunday, April 4th and not Thursday, December 24th, we would be just hours away from the start of the 2010 baseball season with the defending champion Yankees visiting Fenway Park on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  Unfortunately, we have to wait 101 days for that to happen.  But with New York and Boston adding big-name starters to already talented pitching staffs this month, it's not too early to start the debate: whose is better right now?

First- where things stand.  If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser

While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin

My first impression is how similar these rotations are.  Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end.  So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.

Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story.  When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia.  C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September).  Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.

At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start).  He also led the team in strikeouts.  Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included).  So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox.  And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right.  But Beckett is still better than Burnett.  So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.

I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team.  For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot.  For the Yanks- same thing.  Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.

As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why.  Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season.  He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good.  His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason.  Is he worth what he got?  No.  Is he a lock to make 32 starts?  No.  But will he work nicely here?  I think so.  And it's the same thing for Dice-K.  He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable.  It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy.  His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble.  But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent.  Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.

The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte.  Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one.  It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67.  For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning.  Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season.  That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3.  With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect.  He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee.  With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4.  The problem is, he turns 38 in June.  To his credit, he had a great second half of '09.  But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason.  Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade.  The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health.  Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season.  But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.

At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it.  In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1.  He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts.  He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch.  We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.

In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing.  In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance.  He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings.  What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever.  Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances.  But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1.  So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there.  Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen.  Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved).  In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500.  So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories.  New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.

Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations?  Hard to say.  I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible.  For now, I give the edge to Boston.  We'll see what happens in 101 days.

Lincecum And My Concerns

First off, congrats to 25-year-old Tim Lincecum on winning his second Cy Young award in as many years yesterday.  It's tough to win one and even tougher to repeat.  The American League has only had 4 repeat winners (Pedro, Clemens two different times, Palmer, and McLain) and not counting Lincecum, it's only happened to 3 other NL pitchers (The Big Unit and Maddux 4 years in a row, and Sandy Koufax).

That said, here's what worries me about Lincecum.

He is 5'11, 170 pounds.  In the past two seasons, he has thrown more than 450 innings and because he's a big-time strikeout pitcher, he has averaged nearly 16 pitches per inning over the course of his short career.  Plus, unlike what was the case with Maddux or Clemens, there aren't too many Little League coaches out there who are teaching their kids to throw just like Timmy.

I looked it up and over the past two seasons in Major League baseball, only 5 starting pitchers have thrown at least 3,400 pitches in each season- Justin Verlander (7,459), C.C. Sabathia (7,400), Lincecum (7,121), A.J. Burnett (7,109), and Bronson Arroyo (6,840).  Out of the group, Timmy is the only guy who's not at least 6'4'' and the next skinniest guy on the list (Arroyo) outweighs him by 25 pounds (and Sabathia has him by a full person- 120 pounds).

Knock on wood, Lincecum has been a picture of health his first 3 seasons in the big leagues.  I just wonder how much longer his spindly build will continue to produce such eye-popping seasons and eye-popping pitch counts without any backlash.

Being Curt About Schilling

Right shoulder surgery will end Curt Schilling's 2008 season before it ever started, and it may end his career. That's all according to #38 himself. Assuming he has thrown his last pitch (personally I think it's too early to say he has) let's examine his Hall-of-Fame resume so far.

His 3,116 career strikeouts are good for 14th all-time. There are four people ahead of him who aren't Hall of Famers, although Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux will be five years after they retire. Roger Clemens is the third, and he's anyone's guess. The fourth is Bert Blyleven and he has nearly 600 more.

What Schilling really lacks is an impressive number of regular season wins, largely due to injuries and his decade spent in Philadelphia. His 216 W's don't even put him in the top-75. He's in Charlie Hough/Kenny Rogers/Kevin Brown territory with that win total, although there are more than a dozen pitchers who got into the Hall with even fewer victories.

He won 20 or more three times. That's also good, but not great. And the fact that he was never a Cy Young Award winner doesn't help either, although he was runner-up on three separate occasions and finished fourth in the voting another time. He appeared in six All-Star games, but never more than three in a row, so he wasn't exactly a staple there.

Up until this point, I'd say he's a long-shot for Cooperstown. But what I haven't mentioned is what's he done in October. And what he's done in October has been exceptional. He has three World Series rings, an 11-2 career postseason record, 2.23 postseason ERA, and 120 strikeouts in 133 1/3 IP. His totals for wins, winning percentage, strikeouts, and innings pitched all rank in the top-10 all-time, meaning it is not unreasonable to make the argument that Schilling has been one of the best postseason pitchers ever. And it is for that reason that I think Schilling deserves a place in the Hall.

He may not be a first-ballot guy. And he may not be on the level of contemporaries Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz or Rivera, but Schilling still deserves a spot, even if he never throws another pitch.

Dealing

Josh Beckett and John Lackey are making most of the headlines this morning because they both notched their 15th wins of the season last night. They're the top stories (along with Rick Ankiel) because baseball fans and baseball writers remain inexplicably enamored with a statistic that doesn't measure a pitcher's skill and dominance with the same precision as less sexy stats like WHIP, OPS against, quality start percentage, and K:BB ratio. And that's wrong.

To earn a win, you only need to pitch 5 innings, leave with a lead, and have it hold up. This really means you need to be on a team that scores a lot of runs, plays good defense, and has an excellent bullpen. I'd say the Red Sox and Angels get check-marks in all three categories, no thanks to Beckett, Lakcey, or any of their other starting pitchers.

My point is, while they've definitely both enjoyed tremendous seasons and easily rank among the game's best right now, they're not alone. So why do they deserve extra credit for things they cannot, and do not control? If Joel Pineiro was Boston's closer and had coughed up of 4 of Beckett's wins this year, but his other numbers were exactly the same, Beckett's 11th win of the season yesterday would have been completely under the radar. It baffles me, but I digress (for the record, Chris Young has the best WHIP in baseball at 1.00 while Beckett is 10th at 1.11 and Lackey is 30th at 1.24; Young also leads in OPS against at .520 while Beckett is 9th at .639 and Lackey is 25th at .688; nobody has a higher quality start percentage than Dan Haren at 92%, Lackey is 15th at 71%, Beckett is 16th at 68%; and C.C. Sabathia's 5.92 is the best K:BB in the game, Beckett is 3rd at 4.83, Lackey is 25th at 2.93.)

Instead, I want to focus on two other pitchers who have been (with all apologies to Dick Vitale) dominant with a capital "D" of late, but haven't received the same praise. I'm talking about Brandon Webb and Bobby Jenks.

Webb is more than halfway to Orel Hershiser's seemingly unreachable record of 59 consecutive scoreless innings, running his total to a club record 33 after last night's shutout against the Nationals. Here's how hard this is to do. A guy leads off the inning with a perfect bunt base hit, the next guy hits a groundball to your second baseman whose only play is to first (runner moves up to second), and the next batter hits one to your third baseman, who throws it away. A run is in and a ball hasn't left the infield.

Throwing one shutout is hard enough in baseball. Webb's thrown back to back shutouts now, en route to tossing 33 straight over the course of 5 starts. That goes above and beyond hard. And putting 59 consecutive goose eggs up on the scoreboard is, as Webb desrcibed it, "probably around Cal Ripken territory...one of the most difficult ones to reach."

For Webb, it's always been about control. He fanned 10 and walked 1 last night, and over the course of his streak, he's struck out 29 and waked just 6. For the season he has 155 K's and 56 walks (thus the 2.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP), but back in his 16-loss season of 2004, he walked a worst-in-baseball 119 hitters. The sinker was sinking almost too much. Now though, it appears he has it more than under control.

Next, we go to Jenks, who's complied a streak that is arguably even more impressive than Webb's, in that his tied a league record. Big And Wide has retired 38 straight hitters. That's a perfect game, plus 11 more outs, out of the bullpen. After blowing a save against the Indians back on July 17, then retiring 3 hitters to force extras, Jenks has posted 12 straight 1-2-3 outings. And these haven't been meaningless mop-up innings. He got saves in 8 of those appearances, a win in another, and 3 times he was protecting a 1-run lead.

Manager Ozzie Guillen called it "amazing" saying Jenks' streak is even more impressive than fellow Sox hurler Mark Buehrle's no-hitter earlier this season, because Jenks is facing a new team each time out.

Interestingly, Jenks is now tied with another, shall we say, "rotund" pitcher for the league record- David Wells. Wells came into his infamous hung-over perfect game in 1998 having retired 10 straight Royals the start before. After going 27 up and 27 down against the Twins, Boomer retired Red Sox leadoff man Darren Lewis in his next start before allowing Darren Bragg to single to left field, thus ending his streak at 38 straight hitters (those Red Sox Darrens in the late 90's will get you every time).

If Jenks goes 1-2-3 in his next outing (the Sox host the Mariners today at 2:05) he'll have tied Jim Barr's major league record of 41 in a row, set 35 years ago when pitched for the San Francisco Giants. Unlike Jenks, Barr was a starter as well.

But the Sox aren't great this year so it could take Jenks a few days to potentially tie and break the record. Unfortunately, if he's going for history Tuesday, he probably won't be the biggest story of the day in baseball, or even in his own city. That's because Carlos Zambrano will be gunning for his 15th win against the Reds that night.

Can Somebody Please Explain To Me...

...how Edwin Jackson is still in a Major League starting rotation? He retired one batter in his start tonight against the light-hitting San Diego Padres. He also gave up 2 walks, 5 hits and 5 earned before getting the gate, and before getting his 8th loss of the season.

He is now 0-8 with an ERA of 8.20 in 12 starts. His best outing of the year was back on May 28th, where he gave up 2 earned over 6, struck out 9 and walked 2. Other than that, he's had just 3 quality starts all season (one was 6 1/3 pitched, 3 earned, the other two were 6 pitched, 3 earned). He's also given up 6 earned twice, 5 once (tonight), and 4 a total of 5 times. Tonight's was his shortest outing of the year, but he's also had outings where he retired 4, 8, 9, and 10 hitters.

I realize he doesn't turn 24 until September, I realize he is pitching for Tampa Bay, and I also realize it wasn't that long ago that he was "the next big thing" for the L.A. Dodgers. But at what point do you say, "okay, maybe he's not quite ready to start at this level, just yet?"

I'll Bet You Didn't Know...

The Oakland A's set a record this afternoon against the Baltimore Orioles. Their pitchers haven't allowed a first inning run in any of their first 20 games of the season. That's never happened before, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. And Oakland starters have also gone 18 straight games without allowing more than 3 earned runs, tying the 1998 Cleveland Indians (which wasn't a particularly dominant staff by the way- Nagy, Colon, Dave Burba, Jaret Wright).

What's remarkable is that the A's are doing this without Barry Zito and with Rich Harden now on the DL. Guys like Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy, and today, Dallas Braden (pictured) are shouldering the load.

Billy Beane, phone call on line one. It's Brian Cashman. Something about a trade offer.