Rowand On The River (Or Bay)

Aaron Rowand is headed west. The All-Star centerfielder signed a 5-year, $60 million dollar deal with the Giants today, saying he wanted to be in one place for a long time. That's fine. But it does not appear the team in that one place is going to be particularly competitive any time soon.

Yes, the Giants have a decent rotation with Cain, Lincecum, and Zito. But their offense, even with Rowand, remains thin at best. Bonds is gone, Pedro Feliz is a free agent and the players that remain (Vizquel, Aurilia, Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina) are all at least in their mid-to-late 30s. And let's not forget they play in the same division as the NL champion Rockies, the NL's best regular-season team (Arizona), and an LA club that's added Andruw Jones and might not be done wheeling and dealing.

That's not to say Rowand won't win at all in San Fran. If they add a few bats in a few places, they have the staff to be dangerous. But don't expect that to happen in 2008.

Can Somebody Please Explain This To Me?

The Milwaukee Brewers and reliever Eric Gagne have agreed to a 1-year, $10 million dollar deal. The team says it needed help in the bullpen after losing Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds earlier this offseason for $46 million over 4. Let's not forget Gagne will compete with Derrick Turnbow to be Milwaukee's closer. He's not been handed the job yet. And let's also not forget this happened just hours before the New York Yankees signed reliever LaTroy Hawkins to a 1-year, $3.75 million dollar contract.

Here's why I'm so perplexed. First, how on Earth is Eric Gagne worth $10 million dollars right now? Yes, he turns just 32 next month. And yes, at one time he was arguably the most dominant closer in the history of baseball. But this is also a guy who's been with 3 teams and recorded 17 saves since June of 2005. This is a guy whose right arm looks like it's been stolen from the Frankenstein monster and then attached to his body. This is a guy who was so bad for Boston down the stretch that he was relegated to mop-up duty late in the season and in the playoffs. This is a guy who had only 5 appearances out of 25 with the Sox where he didn't allow a baserunner and not once did he retire more than 3 batters. How does that make him worth an 8-figure salary, especially considering he could end up being Derrick Turnbow's set-up man?

Second, supposing Gagne is worth $10 million, how is LaTroy Hawkins worth only $3.75? Hawkins has appeared in at least 60 games for each of the last 8 seasons. During that stretch he has had at least double digits in holds, or double digits in saves every year. He posted a 2.90 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .228 average after the All-Star break and allowed just 3 baserunners over 5 innings in the 2007 playoffs for Colorado. The only way Hawkins will close for the Yanks this season is if Mariano Rivera misses the team bus or takes a liner off the noggin, but still, New York's backup plan could be much worse.

Perhaps Gagne regains his previous form from earlier this decade. After all, I'm sure the Brewers would take even 75% of his '03 season (55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 K's, 57 baserunners in 82 1/3 IP, plus a Cy Young Award). But in my opinion, the odds of Gagne being worth more than 2.5 times what LaTroy Hawkins is when '08 is in the books, are not good.

The Bonds Market

His arraignment on perjury and obstruction of justice charges stemming from the BALCO investigation is tomorrow, but Barry Bonds says he wants to play baseball next season. For argument's sake, let's assume he avoids jail either via an acquittal or thanks to an exceptionally light sentence. Which teams, if any, would be a good fit?

Well, I think you can all-but-eliminate every single National League team because he just can't play the field any more at an acceptable level. Plus, at this point in his career, he is so much more valuable as a power hitter that it's not worth having to give him a day off so often because of his having played the field the night before. That leaves 14 teams (by the way, why does the NL have two more teams than the AL? Why not move Houston from the NL Central to the AL West? That way, every division in baseball would have 5 teams). Anyway, of those 14 teams, Boston (Ortiz), New York (Giambi), Toronto (Thomas), Chicago (Thome), Cleveland (Hafner), Detroit (Sheffield), Seattle (Vidro), and Oakland (Cust) already have designated hitters who are serviceable or better. That leaves as few as 6 or as many as 8 if you include Seattle and Oakland that would potentially have room for Bonds- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, LA, and Texas.

With the Orioles seemingly trying to get younger rather than older, I just don't see Baltimore being the least bit interested. After all, they already went through Palmeiro-gate once before.

It's probably the same story with Tampa Bay. They have a bunch of young and (in theory) up-and-coming players so I don't see how Bonds would mesh with guys like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, Garza, etc. Let's not forget, the Rays just got rid of Delmon Young who was seen by some as a guy with attitude issues. He's Mr. Congeniality compared to BB.

Kansas City, like Tampa Bay and Baltimore, is a long way from winning or even being competitive in their own division so I don't see Bonds wanting to go there, notwithstanding the fact that the Royals probably wouldn't want him or be able to pay him what he would want, especially considering they just signed Jose Guillen to such an absurd deal.

The Twins are interesting. The odds of Bonds winning a ring there aren't great now that Detroit is so stacked, but he would give them a nice boost in the middle of their order with Morneau, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer and whoever else they get for Santana (I'm still convinced this deal will get done).

LA is also interesting. He could stay out west, give Vlad and Hunter some nice protection and would have the best chance of winning a World Series there than with any other potential suitor.

Texas might be able to pay him and might be willing to take a chance on him (they did the whole Sammy Sosa thing and that actually worked out okay for both sides) but they are not going to finish above Seattle, let alone LA next season, so I doubt Bonds would be too enamored with this team, although given his "situation" (said in a Dane Cook voice), he probably can't be too picky.

Seattle might not be a bad option, although Jose Vidro did have a pretty nice season for the M's last year (.381 OBP, more walks than K's, 600+ plate appearances) and he definitely can't play the field any more so Bonds might not be worth the hit you'd take by losing Vidro in the process.

And in Oakland, Bonds would definitely be a Billy Beane guy...aka a member of the Island of Misfit Toys. But with Dan Haren and Joe Blanton rumored to be on the block and the A's looking to get young again and wait for LA to get old, Bonds just doesn't seem to make as much sense as he did a few months ago.

All that said, I don't think Bonds ever will play again. I have no idea how his trial will play out but will a majority of baseball fans ever actually accept it if he is acquitted? I doubt it. And for that reason, I don't see a big league GM being brave enough to offer him a contract.

Andruw's Nuw Bluw Cruw

It's the LA Dodgers who have decided to take a chance on Jones, who's coming off his worst season in the bigs. Last year, the 30-year-old winner of 10 straight Gold Gloves hit just .222 with 26 homeruns and 94 RBI. His OPS fell 170 points as well from 2006, which fell 30 points from his career high in 2005.

The move is somewhat surprising considering the jogjam it creates in the LA outfield. They have speedster Juan Pierre in center, promising young bat Andre Ethier in right, another promising (and younger) rightfielder in Matt Kemp, Jason Repko can also play the outfield but was slowed by a foot injury last year, Delwyn Young played sparingly in 2007 but made the most of his 34 at-bats (he hit .382 with an OPS over 1.000) and their leftfielder last season, Luis Gonzalez, remains an unsigned free agent.

So where does Jones fit in? Well, conventional wisdom would say AJ, now their highest-paid outfielder, is going to shift JP, now their second-highest paid outfielder, to left because of his defense. But who plays right- Either, Kemp, Repko, or Young? The answer might depend on a yet-to-be-completed trade. I have to imagine there's plenty of interest out there in Kemp (and third baseman Andy LaRoche for that matter). Does LA now enter the Johan Santana sweepstakes, or go after somebody like Erik Bedard or Dan Haren? Seems to me they should because there just aren't enough ABs to go around for Ethier and Kemp, the two most talented of the group.

As for the specifics of the Jones signing, his 2-year $36.2 million dollar deal is hardly the pay day he (or agent Scott Boras) envisioned after his monster '05 season. And it's actually a bargain considering the Kansas City Royals just gave Jose Guillen the same amount of money, but for 3 years.

Overall, I think this is a shrewd move on behalf of the Dodgers. If Jones' career keeps going south, at least you've upgraded your outfield defense significantly and he's gone after 2009. But if Jones resurrects his career and rediscovers his stroke, then they've just added the bat they were missing all of 2007 and potentially opened the door for a blockbuster deal. With a healthy Rafael Furcal and decent pitching, LA should be in the mix in a tough NL West.

Little Sarge No Longer In Charge Of The Outfield

It appears Gary Matthews Jr.'s days are over as LA's center fielder now that the Angels have signed Torii Hunter. Hunter has won 7 Gold Gloves in a row and the Angels openly admit Vladimir Guerrero will be their right fielder (duh) while Garrett Anderson will start in left. In addition to Matthews they also have Juan Rivera back from a broken leg, who hit .279 in 43 AB's at the end of '07 after a .310/23/85 performance the year before...and Reggie Willits who stole 27 bases and had a .391 OBP last season, even though his second half was poor.

LA says Matthews will spell Vlad and Garrett and see some time at DH in '08, which doesn't seem to justify the 5-year, $50 million dollar deal they signed him to last year, although they're paying Hunter almost twice that ($90M over 5). Matthews came back to Earth last year going .252/18/72 with 18 steals after a .313/19/79 year with 10 steals in 2006.

Clearly, LA has to trade somebody out of this group of 6 and you can bet it won't be Vlad or Hunter. They're better off keeping Anderson considering what they'd be able to get for an aging, injury-prone corner outfielder and they'll have an equally difficult time getting a team to take on Matthews' absurdly large deal especially because he turns 34 next August (I had no idea until I looked it up). That makes the most likely trade candidates Willits or Rivera (or both).

LA's already made one trade this offseason, so don't be surprised to see another, soon.

What A Snoozer!

So much for this being a mix-'em-up, re-establish-the-balance-of-power kind of offseason. So far we've seen Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell re-sign with the Red Sox, while the Yankees have kept Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and A-Rod (who was robbed of a unanimous MVP selection by two writers from Detroit, according to Rob Neyer). Those guys were on a short list of the most sought-after players and they're not going anywhere. Neither is Mets second baseman Luis Castillo (not that anyone cares all that much).

Barry Bonds has a better chance of playing for the same California Penal League team Charlie Sheen pitched for in "Major League" than he does of finding a suitor in the AL or NL. And Tom Glavine is going back to the Braves for one year and $8 million dollars. Who said pitching was going to be hard to come by this year?

The biggest "bombshells" so far have been Edgar Renteria to the Tigers and the Orlando Cabrera/Jon Garland deal. And unless a big name gets traded between now and spring training (Miguel Tejada?, Miguel Cabrera?, Johan Santana?) the most we have to look forward to is where Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones end up and for how much.

Thanks a lot guys. What happened to greed and testing the market?

First Team, All-Free-Agent

The deadline to file for free agency is November 13 and many players already have. Here's a look at some of the top names.

Catcher: Jorge Posada, Paul LoDuca, Michael Barrett, Yorvit Torrealba

First Base: Sean Casey, Brad Wilkerson

Seconod Base: Luis Castillo, Kaz Matsui

Shortstop: David Eckstein, Mark Loretta

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez, Pedro Feliz, Corey Koskie, Mike Lamb, Abraham Nunez

Outfield: Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Barry Bonds, Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Geoff Jenkins

Designated Hitter: Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney, Sammy Sosa

Starting Pitcher: Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg, Kenny Rogers, Tom Glavine, Jeff Weaver, Kip Wells

Relief Pitcher: Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Todd Jones, Eric Gagne, JC Romero, Kerry Wood

Based on that, I would have to say the starting lineup of best available free agents would look something like this...

SS David Eckstein
LF Aaron Rowand
CF Torii Hunter
3b Alex Rodriguez
C Jorge Posada
RF Andruw Jones
1b Sean Casey
DH Mike Piazza
2b Luis Castillo

SP Cust Schilling
SP Bartolo Colon
SP Freddy Garcia
SP Livan Hernandez
SP Josh Fogg
SU JC Romero
CP Mariano Rivera

Aside from A-Rod and Hunter, there is a whole lot of risk in this year's crop, and not many sure things.

A Brave New World

Andruw Jones won't be back with Atlanta in 2008, instantly making him one of the biggest names in the free agent market this winter. He's a Scott Boras guy and is looking for a deal in the 5-year, $100 million range. If that's what a .222 hitter is worth these days, I don't want to think what Alex Rodriguez will earn if he leaves New York.

Worst Free Agent Ever?

I have to think Carl Pavano ranks fairly high on that list and I'm not just talking exclusively about baseball players. I'm talking about pro sports free agents. Worst ever.

This is a guy who's really had one good season in 10 years (2004, go figure, his free agent walk year). Now, his season is definitely over and his career with the Yanks might be as well. The end result of this is, New York might as well have taken the $39,950,000 they planned to pay him over four years, traded it in for 159,800,000 quarters and flushed every last one down the toilets of Yankee Stadium because, in the words of comedian Lewis Black, every so often, the toilets will back up, AND YOU'LL BE A WINNER!

If his career in pinstripes is truly over, it means Carl Pavanothealthy will have thrown 111 1/3 innings for 399,500 Benjamins. And thanks to ESPN's game log feature, I can calculate his price per pitch over that span. It's hilarious because it's true. Are you ready? Take a deep breath. It's $23,445. PER PITCH! That kind of makes Roger Clemens (OMFQ as he's known in my home) look like a bargain.

And it's not like all those pitches were good either. In fact, of his 1,704 pitches, 594 were balls and those wayward pitches don't come cheap. Here some Yankee fans thought Pavano didn't have any balls, when all along they were paying about $14 million dollars for them.

Technically, in his Bronx days, Pavano only threw 969 pitches that were strikes and not base hits. The Boss paid $22.7 million for those good pitches.

We can also do it by price per out. That comes to $119,611. It doesn't matter how you look at it, the Yanks got screwed and most baseball fans love it. I challenge any of my readers to find a free agent who was a worse bargain.