The title of my post was actually inspired by this, but it's meant to be an explanation of why your fantasy team may not be off to such a great start.
Here's the average first two rounds (in a 12-team league, based on live draft results from ESPN.com), and how those guys are doing, entering Sunday's action.
FIRST ROUNDPujols - .158, 5, 1, 2, 0 (#694 overall in 5x5 league)Soriano - .233, 5, 0, 1, 1 (#641 overall)
A-Rod, .350, 12, 7, 17, 1 (#1 overall)
Reyes - .311, 13, 1, 11, 6 (#2 overall)
Santana - 2, 0, 25, 3.60, 1.00 (#43 overall)
Howard - .237, 7, 1, 6, 0 (#168 overall)
Utley - .261, 8, 2, 6, 0 (#89 overall)
Guerrero - .364, 5, 3, 12, 1 (#13 overall)
Crawford - .255, 7, 3, 6, 2 (#35 overall)
Wright - .333, 8, 0, 3, 3 (#49 overall)
Ortiz - .263, 8, 3, 11, 0 (#21 overall)
Beltran - .293, 6, 2, 10, 1 (#33 overall)
SECOND ROUND
Cabrera - .429, 10, 4, 13, 0 (#5 overall)
Hafner - .233, 4, 1, 5, 0 (#277 overall)
Berkman - .188, 5, 1, 3, 0 (#616 overall)
Ramirez - .194, 3, 0, 4, 0 (#720 overall)
Tejada - .271, 5, 1, 3, 0 (#270 overall)
Sizemore - .321, 10, 4, 5, 3 (#8 overall)
Jeter - .318, 9, 0, 3, 1 (#103 overall)
Teixeira -.235, 5, 0, 1, 0 (#699 overall)
Ichiro - .192, 4, 0, 2, 0 (#717 overall)
Morneau - .293, 7, 4, 10, 0 (#19 overall)
Carpenter - 0, 0, 3, 7.50, 1.67 (#1018 overall, DL)
Bay - .231, 4, 2, 5, 0 (#221 overall)
Unless you drafted A-Rod, Reyes, Vlad, Cabrera, or Sizemore, your first two picks have most likely been useless so far, especially if you have Pujols, Soriano, Howard, Hafner, Berkman, Ramirez, Tejada, Teixeira, Ichiro, or Carpenter. Now, here's a look at the guys who are likely on the first place team in your league, even though some of them probably went undrafted.
Jimmy Rollins - .298, 12, 6, 11, 1 (#3 overall)Felix Hernandez - 2, 0, 18, 0.00, 0.47 (#4 overall)
Adam Dunn - .326, 8, 4, 8, 3 (#6 overall)
Eric Byrnes - .288, 7, 3, 10, 4 (#7 overall)
Carlos Lee - .316, 7, 4, 12, 1 (#9 overall)
Aaron Hill - .405, 10, 2, 11, 0 (#10 overall)
Orlando Hudson - .396, 12, 2, 8, 0 (#11 overall)
Ian Kinsler - .323, 7, 5, 9, 1 (#12 overall)
Rich Hill - 2, 0, 11, 0.64, 0.57 (#14 overall)
Akinori Iwamura - .389, 10, 1, 3, 3 (#17 overall)
Ty Wigginton - .341, 7, 3, 8, 0 (#23 overall)
Tim Hudson - 1, 0, 12, 0.64, 0.71 (#25 overall)
Russ Martin - .324, 8, 1, 5, 3 (#26 overall)
Kazuo Matsui - .361, 6, 0, 3, 5 (#30 overall)
I don't know about you, but I hope things revert back to normal soon.
They managed a single up the middle in 9 innings against King Felix and the Mariners. Do you think he was a bit fired up about Dice-K getting all the pre-game pub? At first, I questioned whether the M's did the right thing letting him go all 9 tonight, after he went 8 in his first start. But he's had 8 days off and he hasn't thrown more than 111 pitches in a start yet, so no foul as far as I'm concerned. In the meantime, chew on this. He's 21, he throws 99, his change-up is 89, and he's allowed 8 base runners in 17 innings so far, good for a 0.47 WHIP. He's going to be tough in any kind of weather!
Daisuke Matsuzaka versus Felix Hernandez...in Boston...at 7:05. Game time temp is supposed to be in the mid-30's...both guys throw in the mid-90's...both guys have silly breaking stuff.
My prediction (besides every Japanese photographer on the face of the Earth running out of film in the top of the first, snapping pictures of Ichiro hitting against Dice Dice Baby) is that Matsuzaka will be a little wild, Seattle will capitalize with a timely hit or two, and thus spoil his Fenway debut.
How about former #1 pick Josh Hamilton's 1st home run of his career? How about Jorge Julio blowing another save? How about A-Rod's big-league-leading 6th home run of the season? How about Tim Hudson (1-0, 0.64 ERA) and the Braves off to a 6-1 start? How about Josh Beckett (2-0, 1.50 ERA) and the Red Sox batting around in the bottom of the first of their home opener? How about the Indians winning at home (in Milwaukee) after 4 straight snow-outs?
In what could be a sign that the Jorge Julio experiment is already over, Henry Owens saved the Marlins' 5-3 victory over the Brewers tonight. He gave up a single to Prince Fielder, and took 19 pitches to get through the 9th, but unlike JJ, Owens threw mostly strikes.
For the year, he hasn't allowed an earned run in 5 innings, but he also has exactly zero strikeouts in those 5 innings- not a great statistic for a 9th inning guy. Plus, he turns 28 in a few weeks, has 9 big league innings under his belt, and has 5 career walks and just 2 career wiffs.
Julio's been awful, no doubt (0-1, 16.88 ERA, 9 hits, 4 walks, 0 K's in 2 2/3), but I'm not sure if Owens is the long-term answer for the fish.
Whoever said good closers are (a) overpaid (b) easy to find (c) easy to replace and (d) completely overrated, I submit to you Brad Lidge. This is a guy who was absolutely filthy for 3 seasons (2003-2005). In 228 appearances, he finished 118 games, saving 72 of them. He only blew 13 saves (or one every 17.5 outings). His strikeout to walk ratio was 3.75:1. He averaged 12.83 K's per 9. He allowed 1.08 base runners per inning and his ERA was 2.59. These are exemplary numbers for any closer, especially considering they span a three-year stretch.
Then came October 17, 2005. It was game 5 of the NCLS and Lidge was fresh off saves in games 2, 3, and 4. It was the top of the ninth. There were two outs and runners on first and second when Albert Pujols slugged an 0-1 pitch onto the railroad tracks in left field to tie the game.
The look on Lidge's face in this photo is what I find interesting. It's as if in that moment, three years of dominance were rendered utterly meaningless. Everybody wondered if that majestic, although ultimately meaningless post-season home run (Houston won the series the next night) would cause Lidge long-term harm.
Now that Lidge is setting up for Dan Wheeler, I think that question has been all-but-answered because his numbers speak for themselves.
After game 5, Lidge (who went on to lose two World Series games, one after giving up a walk-off to light hitting Scott Podsednik) has suffered statistical setbacks across the board. His strikeout-to-walk is down (2.85:1), his strikeout per 9, while still fantastic, is down slightly (12.44), his ERA has more than doubled (5.46), his WHIP is through the roof (1.46), and he has just 32 saves (with 7 blown saves) in 83 outings (good for one every 11.8 appearances). What's worse, especially for a closer, is that he's starting to be a gopher-ball guy. He allowed a round-tripper once every 13.2 innings during his 3 years of dominance. Since game 5 though, someone's taken him yard once every 6.7 innings.
I doubt Lidge will ever be as good as he was during his pre-game 5 days, just because he set the bar so incredibly high. I also wonder what, if anything he'd be worth in the post-season. He served up two monumental bombs to two completely different types of hitters, in two completely different parks, and clearly hasn't recovered, mentally. And while I'm a little surprised that Astros Manager Phil Garner made the change as early as he did, I think it's the right one because for a pitcher, especially a reliever, brain injuries take a lot longer to heal than body injuries, and sometimes they never do.
The Atlanta Braves have the best winning percentage in baseball (5-1), even though they've allowed as many runs (25) as they've scored (25).
The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians have had more games postponed (5) than they've played (3).
The Japanese guy everybody forgot about on draft day (Tampa Bay's Akinori Iwamura) is leading the big leagues in batting average (.529), although in 9 AB's Cleveland's Trot Nixon is slightly higher (.556).
Arizona's Chris Young is leading the National League in RBI (9) despite a .191 average, and just 5 hits.
Albert Pujols is hitting .136 and started off 1-17.
Brandon Inge is 0-17 with 3 walks.
The Chicago White Sox have three starters (Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, A.J. Pierzynski) all hitting under .120.
In 5 games, the New York Yankees have not had a starter last more than 5 innings.
Salomon Torres leads baseball with 4 saves.
The San Francisco Giants have scored 13 runs in 6 games, while in half as many games, the Cleveland Indians have already scored 23.
Miguel Tejada and Derek Jeter each have 3 errors.
I can't wait for week two!
Daisuke Matsuzaka's 2007 debut is in the books and the critics are having a hard time finding something bad to say about 7 innings, 1 run, 1 walk and 10 K's, even if it was against the punchless Kansas City Royals.
I saw him pitch in Philly during his final tune-up of the spring, and he was really wild (4 walks and 7 K's in 4 innings). It's almost as if his stuff breaks too much. My prediction is that this will be an up-and-down season for Dice-K, and at times, a frustrating one for people who have him on their fantasy teams. He'll probably have several more outings like today's, and several where he struggles with his command, and really pays for it.
Still, Red Sox fans have to be encouraged by the way he and Beckett closed out the series in Kansas City, after a disappointing Opening Day.
Oh, married life. I'm watching tonight's Mets/Cardinals game on ESPN2 (the Red Birds look awful, by the way) and the commentators, Brian Schulman, Orel Hershiser, and Steve Phillips are talking about Barry Zito's unremarkable debut with San Francisco the night before (he gave up 3 runs and 4 hits with 2 walks over 5). They were analyzing his breaking stuff and said he was having trouble getting his big curve ball over for a strike, but also predicted he would improve as the season progresses. So the lady in the picture with the blue hat, holding the cup filled with Diet Mr. Pibb, turns to me and says, "maybe if he didn't spend the whole off-season playing guitar and smoking doobies."
I believe my exact response was, "What!?!?"
As if that non sequitur wasn't enough, I had the O's/Twins game on MASN on picture-in-picture (the Black Birds look worse, by the way) and right after Miguel Tejada booted a really tough in-between hop on a chopper in the hole off the bat of Luis Castillo, that same wordsmith looks me dead in the eye and says, "maybe if he wasn't off pimping his ride and sippin' on gin and juice all the time, he would have made that play."
It's going to be an interesting 6 months of baseball in my living room.
Now that every team except for the Padres and Giants have played their first game, I want to look back at Opening Night/Day and reflect on some remarkable performances. But I want to do so with the caveat that like always, everyone puts way too much stock in the first game of a 162-game season. This isn't the NFL where you play 16 times and each game is huge. No, this is a marathon, not a sprint. And your favorite team's game on August 17th and all stats accumulated therein is worth just as much as yesterday's win or loss, strikeout or home run.
So here are a few headlines from the last two days...
1. Yankees Win Ugly
While one of my readers likes to remind me that his team is on a pace to go 162-0 this season, I seriously doubt that will happen. And if yesterday's starting pitching performance is any indicator, this team will need to score a lot of runs (as they did yesterday) and play better defense (like they didn't do yesterday) to win even 90 games.
2. Red Sox Lose Ugly
What was the bigger shocker? The fact that Kansas City got 7 runs and 12 hits off 6 Boston pitchers? Or the fact that two Royals hurlers held the Sox to a run on 8 hits, including 6 singles? It's a coin flip as far as I'm concerned. But I don't expect it to continue. However, they need Schilling and Beckett to anchor the staff, so Wednesday's game may have a few Red Sox fans anxiously awaiting JB's '07 debut.
3. Dominating Pitching Performances
Tom Glavine, about the only sure thing on the Mets staff so far, threw 6 economical innings Sunday night, beating the defending champs, 6-1. Then Monday, Felix Hernandez (8 IP, 3 hits, 0 earned, 12 K), Ben Sheets (9 IP, 2 hits, 1 earned), Gil Meche (7.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 earned, 6 K) and Aaron Harang (7 IP, 6 hits, 0 earned) one-upped him. Tonight's pitchers to watch include Jake Peavy, Barry Zito and Daniel Cabrera.
4. Hot Hitting Early
Adam Dunn and Edgar Renteria left the yard twice, Hanley Ramirez had 4 hits and scored 4 times, Miguel Cabrera had 4 RBI and a handful of other players (mostly on the Indians and Yankees) had at least 3 hits, runs scored or RBI. Can't say I'm surprised, except maybe for Renteria.
5. Struggling Studs
Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, John Patterson, Scott Kazmir, and Erik Bedard all had outings to forget. But don't worry, they'll all be fine. Probably.
The title of my post was actually inspired by this, but it's meant to be an explanation of why your fantasy team may not be off to such a great start.
