The Rest Of The Way Home

Unless the Yankees sweep the Red Sox (again) this weekend at Fenway, it's probably safe to say Boston has the AL East locked up at this point. They have a 5 game lead right now with 2 more games against Tampa, the New York series (which is 3 games), and 3 each on the road against the Jays and Rays, before finishing up at home with 2 against Oakland and 4 against Minnesota. Of their 17 remaining games, only 3 are against teams with any hope of playing in October.

As for the Yankees, they're 3.5 up on Detroit for the Wild Card and 5.5 up on all-but-irrelevant Seattle. New York begins a 6-game road trip tonight in Toronto before heading to Boston for 3. The Orioles come to the Bronx for 3 and the Jays visit for 4 before they finish up on the road at Tampa and at Baltimore. Like the Sox, the Yanks only have 3 games out of their last 19 against potential playoff teams, and those games are this weekend.

In the Central, Cleveland is 6 up on Detroit right now but those two teams do have 3 more against each other, in Cleveland. First, the Tribe has 2 more at Chicago, then they're home for 3 with Kansas City. After the Detroit series, Oakland comes to town for 3 before they head out to Seattle for 4 and Kansas City for 3. 8 of their remaining games 18 games are against the Royals or White Sox. They should be fine.

In the West, LA is 8.5 up on Seattle. They'll probably be the first team in baseball to clinch considering their remaining schedule includes the Orioles, White Sox, Devil Rays, Mariners, Texas, and Oakland. My guess is, Seattle will have virtually no shot at the AL West crown by the time their September 20th series rolls around.

Speaking of Seattle, they're now gunning for the Wild Card and not going about it too well. They're 5.5 back of the Yankees right now, they've lost 14 of their last 16, have 2 more at home with the A's, 4 with the Rays, then they go to Oakland for 3 and to Los Angeles for 4, before returning home for 4 games with Cleveland and 3 with Texas. The M's are playing horribly right now and that schedule won't help. They'll probably be on the outside, looking in.

That leaves Detroit. They're 3.5 back of the Yankees, and just lost Jeremy Bonderman for the season. But, aside from those 3 games in Cleveland, they have a relatively easy schedule- Texas, at Minnesota, Kansas City, Minnesota, and at Chicago. In the unlikely event the Yankees falter, Detroit could make it interesting.

In the NL East, the Mets really have a chance to pull away from the Phillies for good, this week. They're 6 up right now, with two more against the Braves before this weekend's series. After that, it's a cake-walk...at Washington and Florida, at home against Washington, one against the Cardinals, then three more with the Marlins. If the Phillies don't sweep, the division should be theirs. If they do, it will get really interesting. More on the Phils in a minute.

The Central race is the closest in baseball. Either the Cubs or Brewers will likely hold off the other guy (they're both 73-70 right now), while the other guy is left out of the postseason. But the Cardinals (3 back) could play the role of spoiler. The Cubbies have 3 at Houston, 4 at St. Louis (which will be huge), then they play the Reds, Pirates at home, and finish up at Florida and Cincinnati.

The Brewers have a tougher schedule the rest of the way, with series against the Cardinals (3 at home), and Padres (4 at home) as their last 7 games of 2007. Before that, they need to finish their series at Pittsburgh, host Cincinnati and go to Houston and Atlanta.

The Cardinals control their own destiny more than anyone but their schedule is also tougher than anyone's. They're at the Reds, host Cubs, Phillies and Houston before gong to Milwaukee, New York for one, and finishing up in Pittsburgh- a very tough road.

The West race has the D-Backs back on top of the Pads by 3.5 with the Dodgers 6 back and taking on water. Arizona has two more at San Fran, 3 more at LA, then 3 at home each with those two clubs before finishing up at Pittsburgh and Colorado. I like their chances.

San Diego has the Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Rockies, Giants and Brewers before it's all over. I imagine they'll hold on to the Wild Card, unless the Phillies sweep the Mets this weekend.

Speaking of the Phils, they're only 1.5 back in the Wild Card, but have the Mets and Cardinals on their schedule. To counteract that though, they also have 7 of their last 19 against the Nationals, so they could make it interesting.

And the Dodgers, 2.5 back for the Wild Card, have San Diego and Arizona twice on their schedule, meaning their fate, gloomy as it seems right now, rests in their own hands to a certain extent.

Hard to imagine there's less than 3 weeks left!

What's Next? Brian Roberts Indicted On Federal Dogfighting Charges?

For the 2007 Baltimore Orioles, it's a season that's already seen...

*A play-by-play announcer question the authenticity of Curt Schilling's bloody sock on the air, then apologize

*The color man make an on-air joke about domestic violence, then apologize

*The manager get fired

*The franchise player break his wrist, go on the DL, and lose his consecutive games played streak

*A dependable veteran starting pitcher be declared done for the season in spring training

*An up-and-coming starting pitcher suffer a season-ending injury after 6 starts

*Another starting pitcher hoping for a bounce-back season suffer a season-ending injury after 3 starts

*The closer suffer a season-ending injury around the All-Star break

*The ace and Cy Young candidate suffer a season-ending injury down the stretch

*A Rookie of the Year candidate fizzle down the stretch

*A modern-era-worst 30-3 loss at home

*A no-hitter at the hands of a pitcher making his second career start

*A revamped bullpen blow more saves than any team in the league

*A 9-game losing streak

*Another 9-game losing streak, and...

*Unless they win their last 20 games, a 10th straight losing season

Now you can add to that...a player accused of receiving human growth hormone from a now-infamous pharmacy. Say what you will about Jay Gibbons, but if he did in fact use HGH, it just proves the point many people have tried to make about Barry Bonds. Performance-enhancing drugs don't always enhance your performance.

At least now, it's football season.

A Grand(erson) Season

Curtis Granderson did it.

This afternoon, he stole his 20th base of the season and also hit his 21st homerun for good measure.

This means he now has 36 doubles, 22 triples, 21 homeruns, and 20 steals. This also means he is the third 20-20-20-20 player in baseball history and the first in 50 years. Add to that, an average right around .300 and 110+ runs scored and it's easy to see why the Tigers love this guy.

Because you're probably wondering, Willie Mays went 26-20-35-38 in 1957 for the New York Giants and Frank Schulte went 30-21-21-23 for the 1911 Chicago Cubs en route to winning the MVP.

Granderson won't win the MVP, he's still a virtual unknown to casual baseball fans, and at the beginning of the season even fantasy owners didn't think much of him, selecting him, on average, 177th overall after guys like Dustin Hermanson, Kei Igawa, and Jorge Cantu. I bet that changes next season, though.

Chris B. Having A Strange Year

.238 batting average, 28 homeruns, 24 steals, .294 on base percentage...these are numbers that just don't go together all that often. Yet for Chris "The Statistical Anomaly" B. Young this is his 2007.

What's important here is the fact that he could go 30-30, despite an OBP below .300. Entering Sunday, the D-Backs have 19 games remaining. Based on his performance to date, Young should get about 78 more plate appearances. If he does, and hits at least 2 homeruns, steals at least 6 bases, and doesn't reach base more than 28 times, he'll finish up 30-30, sub-.300.

So I asked myself, "self, has this ever happened before?" Not knowing the answer off the top of my head, I did a little research. And here's what I found.

*Alfonso Soriano came awfully close just two years ago when he went .268, 36, 33, .309 for the Texas Rangers.

*I thought I'd found a winner when I stumbled upon Preston Wilson's 2000 season, where he hit 31, stole 36, and punched out 187 times for the Marlins. But his OBP was .331! Not bad for a guy who wiffed that much.

*Jose Canseco warrants mention for his 1998 season with Toronto. He hit 46, stole 29, batted just .237, but had an OBP of .318.

*Sammy Sosa had a very "Alfonso Soriano" 1993 (or maybe it was Soriano who had a very "Sammy Sosa" year, 12 years later) going .261, 33, 36, .309 for the Cubbies.

*Despite a .251 batting average in 1991, Ron Gant hit 32 homeruns, stole 34 bases, and had an OBP of .338.

*Joe Carter came just a few walks shy of the mark in 1987 for the Tribe. His numbers were .264, 32, 31, .304.

*Despite being just a career .268 hitter, and a 30-30 machine in the late 60s and 70s (he did it 5 times), Bobby Bonds never came close to a .300 OBP.

*Baseball had a 34-year "30-30 drought" from the time Ken Williams did it in 1922 (he was the first ever) to the time Willie Mays did it in 1956. Neither got close to a .300 OBP.

*In 1920, George Sisler's batting average was .407 the year he hit 49 doubles, 18 triples, 19 homeruns and stole 42 bases.

*Before 1920, no players hit 30 homeruns in a season. Usually 20 or fewer led the majors.

So what does this tell us? Well, it tells us Chris B. Young has the chance to accomplish something no player has in the history of baseball: a 30-30 season with an OBP of less than .300. He also has a chance to set the new mark for worst batting average in a 30-30 season. Gant's .251 is worst right now, however if Canseco stole one more base in '98, he'd own that distinction with a .237 mark which would have put him and Young in a real dogfight.

I don't know what that means for the rest of Young's career, though. You have to be pretty good to go 30-30 and pretty bad to get 600 plate appearances and not reach at least 180 times. Either way, I'm going to be rooting for (and I suppose, against) him these last three weeks.

Boy I'm Getting Sick Of This

Just when you think you've found a truly inspirational story, a really likable guy, someone you can cheer for no matter who your team is, you find out he's been linked to an HGH probe.

Sometimes I really do hate baseball.

Also, more bad news for Baltimore Orioles fans. Not only is your team now 3 losses away from a 10th straight losing season, but as I predicted, Erik Bedard's oblique injury will likely shelve him for the rest of 2007, and with it, any hope he had of winning the Cy Young award. That, too, is a real shame because it would have been a tremendous boost to a team that desperately needs one.

Why Carlos Zambrano Will Never Achieve His Potential

Here's a guy with a 97 mile-an-hour fastball, a Roger Clemens body-type, 12 career homeruns in 398 at-bats, and the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds playing in his division. Yet he can't seem to top 16 wins in a season. And here's a bold prediction...he never will. Want to know why? Because he's an absolute headcase.

For Treinta Ocho, 2007 has been a tale of three seasons. There's been "pre-fight-with-Michael Barrett," "post-fight-with-Michael-Barrett," and "August on." For fun, let's call them 2007A, 2007B, and 2007C. For even more fun, let's show you how they compare:

2007A (April 2-June 1) 5-5, 5.62 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 1.50 K:BB (12 starts)
2007B (June 6-July 29) 9-2, 1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.48 K:BB (11 starts)
2007C (August 3-Now) 0-5, 8.29 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 1.23 K:BB (6 starts)

This is the same guy. And yet he wonders why normally cordial Cub fans are booing him.

"I can't understand that," Zambrano said. "They showed me today they just care about them. That's no fair. Because when you are struggling, that's when you want to feel the support of the fans."

Maybe they're pissed, TO, because you're allowing more than an earned run an inning since signing a fat contract extension through 2012. Maybe they're pissed, TO, because your inconsistency is the only consistent part of your game, even though you're 26 and in your 6th full season. Maybe they're pissed, TO, because your team is counting on you down the stretch. You complained about not having a new deal in spring training. Now you have one, your team is clinging to a division lead, and you're pitching like Victor Zambrano.

Mark my words, TO's career-high win total won't top 16, and in a few years, the Cubs will be kicking themselves for giving this baby more money.

Strike Out Child Abuse

As part of fundraiser this past weekend at Arthur W. Perdue Stadium (home of the Delmarva Shorebirds) I pitched on the game mound to Wicomico County State's attorney Davis Ruark, a former outfielder for Wake Forest. Our hitter/pitcher confrontation happened just before the Shorebirds lost to the Lake County Captains in extra innings, 2-1.

That night, we raised more than $12,000 for the Wicomico Child Advocacy Center, an organization that investigates, prosecutes, and treats the victims of child abuse on the Eastern Shore. We sold tickets to the game, held a silent auction, and accepted donations from people in the community.

As I promised I would, I threw the first pitch over his head, off the green pad behind home plate, a-la Randy Johnson to John Kruk in the 1993 All-Star Game at Camden Yards. Davis promptly charged the mound.

They didn't have the radar gun on me, but if I had to estimate, I would say I didn't come anywhere close to hitting my "in-shape-personal-best" of 89 miles an hour. It was still a blast though.

Welcome Back

A couple of potentially playoff-bound teams will gladly welcome the return of former 20-game winners to their starting rotations this week.

First the New York Mets, 3 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, will send Pedro Martinez to the mound Monday night in Cincinnati, to take on Aaron Harang and the Reds. Pedro hasn't pitched since September 27 of last year when he suffered his fourth straight loss and retired just 8 batters before giving up 7 runs to the Atlanta Braves. He had off-season rotator cuff surgery and Willie Randolph says he will be limited to 75 pitches and no more than 35 in an inning, tomorrow.

And the St. Louis Cardinals, now 2 games back of the NL Central leading Cubs, will get Mark Mulder back in their starting rotation, likely Wednesday, at home, against Matt Morris and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mulder, like Pedro, had rotator cuff surgery in the off-season and has been rehabbing ever since. Mulder has not pitched in a big league game since August 29 of last year, where he suffered his third straight loss and got just 5 outs before giving up 5 runs to the Florida Marlins. Interestingly, once he returns, the Cardinals will go to a 6-man rotation featuring Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kip Wells, Joel Pineiro, Mulder, and Anthony Reyes. The thinking here is all the converted relievers, rookies, and guys coming off injuries will have an extra day's rest in-between starts. Tony LaRussa hasn't said what sort of restrictions will be in place for Mulder, but you can bet he'll be on a pitch count for a while.

It's difficult to say what sort of impact these two will have, if any, on the 2007 stretch run. But you know their teams and teammates are just glad to see them, apparently, fully recovered from major arm surgery. At their peak, these guys were some of the best in the game and just a few years ago, both were still major contributors. In 2005 Pedro went 15-8 with a 2.82 and 208 K's while Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.74 ERA and 2 shutouts. If they can both make about 4 starts this month and get their arms into decent shape, and if their teams make it to October, who knows, they could come up huge.

O What A Season

Seven losses from clinching their 10th straight losing season, losers of 10 of their last 11, and 10 days removed from a record-breaking 30-3 loss at home, things couldn't possibly get worse for the Baltimore Orioles, right? How about getting no-hit by a guy making his second big league start ever?!

Clay Buchholz walked 3, struck out 9, and gave up exactly zero hits at home tonight, in a 10-0 laugher. He is just the third pitcher in the modern era to throw a no-no in his first or second career start, and the first to do it since Wilson Alvarez in 1991 against, you guessed it, the Baltimore Orioles.

"It's amazing. That's all I can say," Buchholz beamed after the game.

Orioles fans might not use the exact same word, but I'm sure they're in disbelief as well.

For those of you keeping score, the official Dave Trembley era is off to a 1-10 start. Stay tuned.

One Month Left

Some awards are in the bag as far as I'm concerned, while others might not be decided until the final week of the season. Either way, here are my favorites, thus far, for baseball's major awards.

MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.305, 44, 125, 20 steals)
Magglio Ordonez picked a bad year to have a great year because he deserves this award, there's no question about it. But when you consider the fact that A-Rod is first in the league in homeruns, runs, OPS, RBI, and slugging, plus he's on pace to become baseball's first-ever 50-150-20 guy, how can he not win this award? The Yankees playoff status should not factor into this decision.

MVP, NL - David Wright (.319, 24, 87, 30 steals)
Wright is one of about 7 guys who could legitimately win this honor right now. But here's why I'm leaning in his direction. If everything goes the way it should, he would finish around .320, with a 30-30 season, 100 runs, 100 RBI, an OBP of well over .400 and he's going to be the only guy in the NL to do that. However, if Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder power their teams into the playoffs with big Septembers, they'll probably win this award. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins could also get a lot of votes if they score a bunch of runs and get a bunch of hits this month. And let's not forget about the seasons Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are having. This one's going to be close, no question.

Cy Young, AL - C.C. Sabathia (15-7, 3.37 ERA, 176 K's)
This one may be even closer than NL MVP. And just like that award, this one will be decided by everyone's last 5 or 6 starts of the season. All things being equal, I still like Erik Bedard best, but he missed yesterday's start with a strained oblique muscle. Those things don't heal quickly, and the O's are awful, so he may be on a short leash the rest of the way home, which will hurt his chances significantly. Santana's numbers are good, but he hasn't been quite as dominant as he's been in years past. Haren's had a very average second half, and Lackey, Escobar, and Beckett's numbers have all been buoyed by their teams. That's why C.C.'s my man here. He's first in innings pitched, top-5 in wins, complete games, K's, and quality start percentage, and top-10 in ERA and winning percentage. A dependable, workhorse, ace on a playoff team...that's what being a Cy Young award winner is all about.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (15-5, 2.18, 197 K's)
As hard as the last two awards have been to choose, this one is just as easy. Peavy is in a class all by himself, and currently leads in all three of pitching's triple crown categories (wins, ERA, K's). For good measure, he's also number one in quality start percentage, 0.01 behind the leader in WHIP, and second in BAA. Congrats in advance, Jake.

ROY, AL - Dustin Pedroia (.321, 6, 42, 5 errors)
Most people thought a guy from Boston would win this award, but they didn't think he'd be an American second baseman. Pedroia is top-10 in the league (and first among rookies) in hitting, is a hell of a tough out (.392 OBP, 34 K's all year), and is one of the best fielding second basemen in all of baseball (.990 fielding percentage, 5 errors). There's not much that's not likable about this guy, and considering Alex Gordon's complete flop, Delmon Young's lack of production, and Dice-K's very average 13-11, 3.88 year, he's my guy. How much you want to bet Pedroia doesn't win, though because he's not a power hitter?

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.329, 25, 68, 13 steals)
He's not quite as much of a lock for his award as Jake Peavy is for Cy Young, but he's awfully close. Braun leads all rookies in hitting and OPS and he's second only to Chris B. Young in homeruns. If he gets there, a 30-30 season by Young will get a lot of attention, but his God-awful .234 batting average and even worse .287 OBP should cool voters off. The bottom line is, Braun should be able to have an okay September and still walk away with this award because he's a much more complete player than Young, at least right now.

Comeback Player Of The Year, AL - Carlos Pena (.274, 33, 92)
With all due respect to Jack Cust, the award is Pena's, hands-down. Between 2005 and 2006, he didn't get 300 at-bats total because he wasn't good enough to crack anybody's starting lineup. Now he's one of the most dangerous first basemen in the league. He'll have posted carer bests in every category by the end of the season and if it wasn't for A-Rod, he'd be leading the league in homeruns.

Comeback Player Of The Year, NL - Josh Hamilton (.278, 18, 43)
That Josh Hamilton is alive is an accomplishment in and of itself. Drug problems kept him off the field for a long time and it seemed like number one overall pick in 1999 was going to be a complete and utter waste of talent. But he's battled his way back from addiction and has enjoyed a very nice, if not injury-reduced season. Rick Ankiel should also get some votes here too.

Manager Of The Year, AL - Joe Torre
After all the Yanks have been through this season, and after their miserable start, the fact that Torre has this team atop the AL Wild Card race right now is an unbelievable accomplishment. He never pushed the panic button, and thankfully for New Yorkers, George Steinbrenner didn't either.

Manager Of The Year, NL - Tony LaRussa
No Chris Carpenter, an unproductive Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and an absolutely patch-work pitching staff should have been the recipe for a 70-92 season. But LaRussa has this team within a game of .500, and within 2 games of the NL Central lead. This is why he's a Hall of Famer.