Help Me, Father?

Actually, it's the fathers who need help at this point. The San Diego Padres had been on a 7-game winning streak before dropping their last 4, (3 at home against the Rockies and the first of 3 on the road against San Francisco), and in the process, dropping their Wild Card Lead. Now they're 3 back with 6 to play in the NL West (i.e., in trouble) and the Wild Card situation is murkier than ever. San Diego and Philadelphia are tied at 85-71 apiece. The Rockies (who've won 8 straight) are just a game back, and previously-down-and-out Atlanta is still on life support, sitting 3 back.

The Pads have 2 more with Frisco, then a potentially tough 4-game road series, against a likely-bitter Milwaukee club. The Phillies are home for their last 6, first it's Atlanta for 3, then the Nats for 3. Colorado has 3 at LA, then 3 at home against the division-leading Diamondbacks. We'll find out what they're made of this coming weekend. And finally the Braves, who basically have to win out, are on the road their final 6 games of the year...3 in Philly and 3 in Houston.

For the Padres, things are coming unraveled at a crucial time. Milton Bradley tore his right ACL as manager Bud Black was trying to restrain him from arguing balls and strikes with a home plate umpire, Sunday. He got ejected anyway, and he's done for the year. And earlier in that game, Bradley stepped on Mike Cameron's hand as the two were going after a ball in the gap. Now Cameron's right thumb has torn ligaments, and he's going to be limited these last six games as well. Add to that the fact that former Cy Young candidate Chris Young is 0-5 with a 5.61 since the start of August, Khalil Greene is 2 for his last 27, and they just traded for Jason Lane to be a starting outfielder the rest of the way.

Taking a usually laid-back San Diego approach to things, Black said, "We still determine our own fate...It's exciting. There are a lot of teams that would trade places with us."

We'll see if he's still saying that next week at this time.

The Weekend's Over, What Have We Learned?

Besides the fact that Tom Brady and Randy Moss look like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, and besides the fact it appears Norv Turner has ruined yet another team, we learned quite a bit about baseball's nearly-over regular season.

First, after picking up his 20th Friday night, Josh Beckett probably locked up the Cy Young award, and also guaranteed the Sox a playoff appearance. They went 2-1 this weekend, as did New York, meaning they just might have righted the ship in time. As for Beckett, he'll likely be the majors' only 20-game winner. The fact that he's on a big-market team, could win 21, and his secondary numbers are good, spells trouble for the guy who deserves this award more- C.C. Sabathia.

Second, speaking of the Yankees, it's looking more and more likely that A-Rod will, in fact, make it to 150 RBI, meaning he's got a good chance at becoming the first ever "50-150-20" or "50-150-25" player. He has 4 RBI in the first 3 games of the series against the Jays, and now needs just 4 RBI and 1 steal in his last 7 to get there. There are also reports (although his agent denies them) that A-Rod will join the Cubs as a player/part owner next year. If he does go to the south side, let the record show, I called it back in February.

Third, not that it's any surprise, but Cleveland and LA also clinched this weekend. That's all. Ho hum. Right now Cleveland has a 0.5 game lead for best record in the AL and interestingly, no team will win 100 games this season (AL or NL). This happened last year too, so it's the first time we've seen back-to-back-no-100-game-winners since '91, '92.

In the NL, it looks like the Brew crew's days as playoff contenders are coming to a close. After losing 3 of 4 to Atlanta, they're 3.5 back now and taking on water. This also may cost Prince Fielder the MVP award. The Phillies couldn't make up any ground on the Mets, but they have pulled to within a half game of the Padres for the Wild Card. They did this, despite the fact that Ryan Howard needs just one more strikeout to set a new record of 196 in a season. It's funny that when you hit 40+ and drive in 120+, people don't seem to care.

And lastly, the Colorado Rockies, still remarkably alive in the Wild Card chase at 1.5 back, have set a new franchise record for wins with 84 (remarkably considering they've been to the playoffs once before). Wouldn't it be something if they crept in the back door after all the attention on the Mets, Phils, and Pads?

For Those Of You Still Paying Attention

...Alex Rodriguez still needs 7 RBI in his last 9 games to become baseball's first ever 50-150-20 player.

With 1 more stolen base and 7 more RBI, he'll be baseball's first 50-150-25 guy.

Watch how quickly Yankee fans forget though, if he goes 1-12 in the ALDS and New York gets bounced.

Would You Want Barry Bonds On Your Team In 2008?

The San Francisco Giants say #25 won't be back next year. Based on the shape of his knees, I'm assuming he's heading to the AL to DH.

He won't be cheap, so in my mind you can cross off teams like Toronto, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City, and Oakland right away. Other teams like Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, and LA seem to have pretty good chemistry and a decent crack at being right back in the mix next year, so why would they want to mess with Bonds? That really only leaves Baltimore, New York, Seattle, and Texas.

This is totally something the O's would do (bring in an aging, injury-prone slugger, way past his prime), plus they desperately need somebody to get fans in the stands each night and Bonds could post pretty good number in that ballpark.

If A-Rod takes off, Bonds might soften that blow in the Yankee lineup, although that means they'd have both "Game of Shadows" cover-boys on the same team.

Bonds-to-Seattle just might give the M's the offensive spark they've been missing this season. He'd be a nice compliment to Beltre and Sexson in the middle of the order.

And with Texas, who knows? They claim to be in a youth movement, but may also bring back Sammy Sosa next year. Bonds' agent claims he's intent on winning a World Series though, and Texas seems to be at least a few years away from achieving that.

One thing's for sure. The free agent market just got a whole lot more interesting.

And Down The Stretch They Come

As most teams prepare for their final three series of the season, a number of playoff spots and seedings are still up for grabs. Here's a look at who's playing who, and how they've fared against those teams, thus far.

Boston (90-63, 1.5 up in AL East, 1 back for AL best record)
3 games at Tampa Bay (11 wins, 4 losses)
2 games vs Oakland (2 wins, 4 losses)
4 games vs Minnesota (2 wins, 1 loss)
Total record against remaining teams: 15-9, .625

New York (88-64, 1.5 back in AL East, 5.5 up in Wild Card)
4 games vs Toronto (8 wins, 6 losses)
3 games at Tampa Bay (8 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at Baltimore (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-21, .523

Cleveland (90-62, 7.5 up in AL Central, 0.5 back for AL best record)
3 games vs Oakland (4 wins, 3 losses)
4 games at Seattle (2 wins, 1 loss)
3 games at Kansas City (9 wins, 6 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 15-10, .600

Los Angeles (91-62, 9.5 up in AL West, 0.5 up for AL best record)
3 games vs Seattle (12 wins, 4 losses)
3 games at Texas (10 wins, 6 losses)
3 games at Oakland (9 wins, 10 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 31-20, .608

New York (84-68, 1.5 up in NL East, 1.5 back for NL best record)
3 games at Florida (7 wins, 5 losses)
3 games vs Washington (9 wins, 6 losses)
1 game vs St. Louis (1 win, 5 losses)
3 games vs Florida (7 wins, 5 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 24-21, .533

Philadelphia (83-70, 1.5 back in NL East, 2.5 back in NL Wild Card, 3 back for NL best record)
3 games at Washington (8 wins, 4 losses)
3 games vs Atlanta (7 wins, 8 losses)
3 games vs Washington (8 wins, 4 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-16, .590

Chicago Cubs (80-73, 1.5 up in NL Central, 6 back for NL best record)
3 games vs Pittsburgh (5 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at Florida (0 wins, 3 losses)
3 games at Cincinnati (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 12-18, .400

Milwaukee Brewers (78-74, 1.5 back in NL Central, 7 back in Wild Card, 7.5 back for NL best record)
3 games at Atlanta (1 win, 3 losses)
3 games vs St. Louis (5 wins, 7 losses)
4 games vs San Diego (0 wins, 3 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 6-13, .316

Arizona Diamondbacks (86-67, 0.5 up in NL West, 0.5 up for NL best record)
3 games vs LA (6 wins, 9 losses)
3 games at Pittsburgh (4 wins, 2 losses)
3 games at Colorado (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 17-19, .472

San Diego Padres (85-67, 0.5 back in NL West, 2.5 up in Wild Card, 0.5 back for NL best record)
3 games vs Colorado (8 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at San Francisco (12 wins, 3 losses)
4 games at Milwaukee (3 wins, 0 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-10, .697)

What's Left To Ponder?

It's interesting how remarkably different the AL and NL playoff races are starting to look, with only about 10 games left. In the AL, it's all-but-over. While in the NL, the next week and a half is going to be nuts!

We'll start in the AL, where it's pretty evident at this point that Boston, New York, Cleveland, and LA are in. It's just a question of whether the slumping Sox or surging Yanks will win the East (they're separated by 1.5 games), and who ends up with the league's best record (Cleveland and LA are both 90-62). First-round match-ups are determined by seeding the division winners 1-3, and the Wild Card team is automatically the 4 seed. Seed 1 plays 4 and seed 2 plays 3, as long as two teams in the same division don't play each other in the first round. At this point, both first round match-ups are on the table (Cleveland vs. New York, LA vs. Boston or LA vs. New York, Cleveland vs. Boston) and mathematically, any of the four teams can still be the number one seed, and thus have home field advantage. But the real drama with who's in and who's out, is done.

Then there's the NL, where the three teams in first place in the East, Central, and West could all make it in, or the three teams in second place in the East, Central, and West could all make it in. The Mets have lost 5 of 6, including 3 in a row to the second place Phillies, who are now just 2.5 back. The Cubs and Brewers have the exact same number of losses (73), but the Cubbies have 2 more wins, and a slim 1 game lead. And it's the same story in the West, where Arizona and San Diego both have 67 losses, but the D-Backs have 2 more wins and a 1 game lead. The Phillies are also 2.5 out in the Wild Card race, where the Padres currently have the lead. And as for best record, Arizona, New York, and San Diego all have 67 losses, but the D-Backs have 2 more wins than anybody else, and thus a 1 game lead. Of those 6 teams (New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Milwaukee Arizona, San Diego) 2 will be awfully disappointed when the season ends. I'm inclined to think it's going to be Philadelphia and the second place team from the Central.

On a side note, it's quite likely we won't have a 100-game winner again this year, which I suppose, speaks to baseball's parity. The Indians and Angels would have to win the rest of their games to hit the century mark, and no other teams can finish with more than 99. We also didn't have a 100-game winner in 2006, meaning if we don't have any teams make it to 100 this year, it will be the first time since the 1991 and 1992 seasons that baseball hasn't had a 100 game winner for two straight seasons.

On a side, side note, I made a friendly bet with a friend of mine last night that the Red Sox won't get to within a game of the World Series (i.e. will win no more than 2 games in the ALCS). Based on how they're playing right now, I'm thinking that's a safe bet.

Are The Boston Red Sox In Trouble?

This would have been a silly question to ask just a few weeks ago, but now, I'm not so sure.

After losing 8-7 last night to the New York Yankees (they had a 7-2 lead in the 8th inning) they are now just 4.5 games up in the AL East. That's the smallest their lead has been since August 19, and if New York wins again tonight, their lead will dip below 4 games for the first time since May 1. They've also dropped 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 to the Yankees.

Remember that bullpen that was supposed to be so good? Well, it's not right now. Entering the month of August, Hideki Okajima's ERA was 0.87 in 47 appearances. It's 4.80 in his 16 appearances since. Eric Gagne has an 8.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 2 blown saves in 13 appearances since coming over from Texas. This may be the most telling stat of them all for #83...he's had exactly zero 1-2-3 innings. These guys are supposed to get the team from its starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon (who blew a rare save and took the loss last night), but that's just not happening.

The Sox offense remains uneven, as well. Manny Ramirez hasn't played since August 28 because of an oblique injury, Kevin Youkilis is hitting just .231 in the second half, and they still don't have a bona fide leadoff man. This season their leadoff hitters (they've tried 8 different guys) are batting just .258 with a .321 OBP. Only the White Sox, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays have suffered lower batting averages from their leadoff men, and in terms of OBP, these four teams are all within .004 of each other. The man who's led-off the most for Boston, Julio Lugo, still has an OBP below .300 for the season and according to his splits, he's much more comfortable in the 9 hole (.331/.372 compared to .225/.287).

There's virtually no way these problems are going to be enough to keep Boston out of the playoffs completely. After all, they have a 4.5 game lead in their division with just 14 to go, and if it gets to that point, they're 8 up on Detroit for the Wild Card. But I do think these problems, if unsolved between now and October, will be enough to keep them out of the World Series, and quite possibly, out of the ALCS- quite a statement for the team with baseball's best record.

Stop The Presses!

Jayson Stark actually agrees with me on something!

Like I predicted two weeks ago, JS is now saying C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy should win the Cy Young awards in their respective divisions. This is unusual to say the least, considering our Stark differences of opinion on baseball's most overrated players.

Perhaps he's been reading the Baseblogg.

An HGH Blood Test In 2008?

Major League Baseball wants to do it, but the players union would have to okay it first. I am sure there are many players who will be (secretly) vehemently against an HGH-testing policy. But the union is going to have a hard time saying "no" to this one, then looking fans and the commissioner in the eye and saying, "yes, we agree performance enhancing drugs are a big problem in the sport and we're willing to work toward finding a solution."

The sad part is, some guy is in a lab right now working on the next undetectable thing. But if they do adopt this policy, at least nobody can accuse MLB of being complicit in the problem any more. Let's not forget about their beefed-up, then re-beefed-up steroids policy.

Way To Go, Justin!

Justin Maxwell, a teammate of mine at the University of Maryland in 2002, hit a pinch hit grand slam off Chris Seddon in the 4th inning of tonight's game against the Florida Marlins. Not only is it his first career salami, it's also his first career homerun, and first career hit!

Justin was a freshman when I was a senior and I still remember how badly our coaching staff wanted him to come to Maryland when he was on his recruiting visit with us the year before. He was a squeaky-clean kid, had terrific grades and was considering Harvard, but chose College Park instead.

He's been ranked as one of the Nats' top prospects the last few seasons and it's easy to see why. He's 6'5'', 225 pounds, is silky-smooth in the outfield, and turns 24 in November- definitely a guy Washington fans want to keep an eye on in spring training next year.