Thursday, March 15, 2007
Tooting My Own Horn
If you like this blog, you might like the book I wrote about my playing days in the Montreal Expos organization. It just went on sale on Amazon.
Pete And Re-Pete
So now Pete Rose is not only admitting he bet on baseball, but he's admitting he bet on his team, the Cincinnati Reds, to win every night. While this may not make the most financial sense (since even great teams still lose at least 60 times), you can't fault Charlie Hustle's faith in his club. For the record, Rose's managerial career with the Reds resulted in 412 wins and 373 losses. So assuming he bet the same amount every time, he's "up" for his career, minus the jail time, of course.Here's my point. I understand why betting on baseball is illegal for players, managers, and staff. It could lead to any number of ills, with the worst-case scenario being a repeat of the 1919 Chicago White Sox scandal, where 8 players intentionally threw the World Series. Players who do/did that have no respect for the game and thus, deserve none in return. But Rose wasn't betting against his team (at least he says he wasn't). This is a guy who wanted to win...who had to win. It didn't matter what he was doing. He wanted to win every time, at every thing. For him, the financial gain associated with a win was just the icing on the cake. He loved the game, he loved his team, and he played it and managed it with everything he had. But he broke the golden rule and has paid a stiff penalty. More than a decade later, does that still warrant a lifetime ban and an outsiders' view of the Hall Of Fame? I'm not sure it does.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
I'm Curious
Why did it take more than two weeks for Gary Matthews Jr. to admit to doing nothing? I know I've touched on this before, but I just don't understand why it takes so long to deny something if you know you've done nothing wrong. Matthews says it took so long because he and his attorneys wanted to be sure he wasn't going to be the subject of any kind of investigation, or accused of any wrongdoing. Apparently he has assurances from Bud Selig that he is not.
I'd like to know why, in light of the fact that his name reportedly appeared on that client list. And I'd also like him to address why his name appeared on that list. He said he would address it, but didn't today.
The Angles may consider this matter closed, but I guarantee G-Mat can look forward to a season full of "H-G-H" chants on the road, and maybe even some at home. If he's innocent, this is an unfortunate penalty he'll have to pay for being so much as associated with the game's on-going performance-enhancing drug scandal. If he's guilty and covering something up, it's nowhere near punishment enough.
I'd like to know why, in light of the fact that his name reportedly appeared on that client list. And I'd also like him to address why his name appeared on that list. He said he would address it, but didn't today.
The Angles may consider this matter closed, but I guarantee G-Mat can look forward to a season full of "H-G-H" chants on the road, and maybe even some at home. If he's innocent, this is an unfortunate penalty he'll have to pay for being so much as associated with the game's on-going performance-enhancing drug scandal. If he's guilty and covering something up, it's nowhere near punishment enough.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Pick Em' Part Two
Same premise as my last post, but this time I'm going into the deeper rounds.
Ninth Round - Chris Young (103) vs. Dan Haren (104)
Young - 11, 0, 164, 3.46, 1.13
Haren - 14, 0, 176, 4.12, 1.21
Interesting choice here. Young enjoyed a breakout 2006, no doubt. He led baseball with a .206 batting average against. To put that into perspective, he allowed 28 fewer hits last year, in 14 2/3 more innings pitched. Yet his ERA was a good-but-not-great 3.46 and he only won 11 times. The reason? His walk total per nine went up by more than 1, he allowed more home runs, and was awful at home (5-5, 4.61 ERA). What worries me about Young is that he doesn't pitch very deep into games. In the last two seasons, he's only averaging about 5.5 innings pitched per start. The Padres simply don't have enough offense, or enough arms in bullpen to make enough of his leads hold up. As for Haren, his ERA was nearly 5.00 in the second half, but he still cranked out another solid season. He's had two straight seasons of 34 starts, 215+ IP, 160+ K, and 14 W. Last season, his walks went down, strikeouts went up, but so did the homers and his ERA. He's also averaged a full inning more per start (6.5) over the last two years, than Young. That extra inning will mean extra wins and extra K's, enough to offset the slightly higher WHIP and ERA. Advantage: Haren.
Tenth Round - Eric Gagne (113) vs. Bob Wickman (115)
Gagne - 0, 1, 3, 0.00, 0.50 (2 IP)
Wickman - 1, 33, 42, 2.67, 1.22
Ah, aging closers with a history of arm issues and with plenty of competition for their jobs. Here's the thing, neither one of these guys is a particularly safe option. Gagne is coming off of one back and two elbow surgeries, plus the Rangers have Akinori Otsuka. And the 38-year-old Wickman has former Pittsburgh lefty Mike Gonzalez waiting for him to implode. But first let's look at the upside for both. If Gagne is completely healed, and he says he is so far, most fantasy owners would take even 75% of what he was with the Dodgers, when he posted save totals of 52, 55 and 45, with ERAs of 1.97, 1.20, and 2.19, with 114, 137, and 114 strikeouts from 2002-2004. As for Wickman, it seems like he's on the verge of losing his job every year, but never does. He saved 33 games for two clubs last year, and 45 the year before. He's never blown anybody away with his ERA or strikeout totals, but he always seems to get the job done. He's saved at least 20 games in a season 7 times, in 8 years as a closer. And he was great (1.04 ERA) with the Braves last year, after coming over from Cleveland. So that's best case scenario. Worst case scenario is they both lose their jobs due to ineffectiveness, injury or some combination thereof. Here's the kicker, the Rangers wouldn't have given Gagne $6 million this off-season to be a setup man. So with him, if he can get healthy and stay healthy (both big if's), the rewards could be huge. Of these two unsafe options, Gagne is slightly safer because of his deal and his secondary numbers. Advantage: Gagne.
Ninth Round - Chris Young (103) vs. Dan Haren (104)
Young - 11, 0, 164, 3.46, 1.13
Haren - 14, 0, 176, 4.12, 1.21
Interesting choice here. Young enjoyed a breakout 2006, no doubt. He led baseball with a .206 batting average against. To put that into perspective, he allowed 28 fewer hits last year, in 14 2/3 more innings pitched. Yet his ERA was a good-but-not-great 3.46 and he only won 11 times. The reason? His walk total per nine went up by more than 1, he allowed more home runs, and was awful at home (5-5, 4.61 ERA). What worries me about Young is that he doesn't pitch very deep into games. In the last two seasons, he's only averaging about 5.5 innings pitched per start. The Padres simply don't have enough offense, or enough arms in bullpen to make enough of his leads hold up. As for Haren, his ERA was nearly 5.00 in the second half, but he still cranked out another solid season. He's had two straight seasons of 34 starts, 215+ IP, 160+ K, and 14 W. Last season, his walks went down, strikeouts went up, but so did the homers and his ERA. He's also averaged a full inning more per start (6.5) over the last two years, than Young. That extra inning will mean extra wins and extra K's, enough to offset the slightly higher WHIP and ERA. Advantage: Haren.
Tenth Round - Eric Gagne (113) vs. Bob Wickman (115)
Gagne - 0, 1, 3, 0.00, 0.50 (2 IP)
Wickman - 1, 33, 42, 2.67, 1.22
Ah, aging closers with a history of arm issues and with plenty of competition for their jobs. Here's the thing, neither one of these guys is a particularly safe option. Gagne is coming off of one back and two elbow surgeries, plus the Rangers have Akinori Otsuka. And the 38-year-old Wickman has former Pittsburgh lefty Mike Gonzalez waiting for him to implode. But first let's look at the upside for both. If Gagne is completely healed, and he says he is so far, most fantasy owners would take even 75% of what he was with the Dodgers, when he posted save totals of 52, 55 and 45, with ERAs of 1.97, 1.20, and 2.19, with 114, 137, and 114 strikeouts from 2002-2004. As for Wickman, it seems like he's on the verge of losing his job every year, but never does. He saved 33 games for two clubs last year, and 45 the year before. He's never blown anybody away with his ERA or strikeout totals, but he always seems to get the job done. He's saved at least 20 games in a season 7 times, in 8 years as a closer. And he was great (1.04 ERA) with the Braves last year, after coming over from Cleveland. So that's best case scenario. Worst case scenario is they both lose their jobs due to ineffectiveness, injury or some combination thereof. Here's the kicker, the Rangers wouldn't have given Gagne $6 million this off-season to be a setup man. So with him, if he can get healthy and stay healthy (both big if's), the rewards could be huge. Of these two unsafe options, Gagne is slightly safer because of his deal and his secondary numbers. Advantage: Gagne.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Pick Em'
Before everyone gets to work filling out their brackets and choosing those pesky 5 vs. 12 upsets, I thought I'd look into some match-ups myself, but of a different variety. Based on ESPN's Live Draft Results, and assuming a competitive 12-team league, here are some tough choices you may be faced with in each of your first 8 rounds on draft day...
First Round - Ryan Howard (6) vs. David Ortiz (11)
Howard - .313, 104, 58, 149, 0
Ortiz - .287, 115, 54, 137, 1
Yes, Howard is going 5 picks sooner than Big Papi, on average. But that's only because people expect he'll duplicate or even top his 2006 season, which was only slightly better than Ortiz's to begin with. Will he do it? Who knows? He could. Is it just as likely that he'll regress a little bit? Maybe (although Howard did have a monster second half). Here's the thing with Ortiz though. You know what you're going to get. He has been a model of excellence and consistency the last three years and for the first time in his career, he had more walks than strikeouts in '06, which means he's still getting better. And in some leagues, Ortiz even qualifies at first base. You can't go wrong with either guy here. The difference is, Ortiz will still be around if you have a late first-round pick. Howard won't. Advantage: Ortiz.
Second Round - Miguel Tejada (17) vs. Derek Jeter (19)
Tejada - .330, 99, 24, 100, 6
Jeter - .343, 118, 14, 97, 34
Tejada posted a career-high batting average last year. Jeter posted the second best batting average of his career last year. Tejada's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Jeter's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Their main difference is, Tejada doesn't run nearly as much as Jeter, whereas Jeter usually doesn't drive in that many runs. I'm giving Tejada the slight edge here just because I'm bullish on the Orioles. I think their lineup is the best it's been in a while, Miggy is happy, and he's going to have guys on in front of him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he comes close to his career-high of 150 RBI, set just two years ago. Jeter can do a lot of things, but he can't do that. Advantage: Tejada.
Third Round - Roy Halladay (35) vs. Roy Oswalt (36)
Halladay - 16, 0, 132, 3.19, 1.10
Oswalt - 15, 0, 166, 2.98, 1.17
I think this is the easiest one so far. Halladay has been in the league 8 years now, and he's made 30 or more starts just 3 times. Plus his strikeout total plummeted last year. Oswalt, on the on the other hard, has had 3 straight healthy seasons, owns a much lower career ERA, and should have won a lot more than 15 games last season. Carlos Lee should help in that department this year. Advantage: Oswalt.
Fourth Round - Paul Konerko (41) vs. Jermaine Dye (44)
Konerko - .313, 97, 35, 113, 1
Dye - .315, 103, 44, 120, 7
Seems like a no-brainer if you look at last year's numbers. Dye is slightly better in every category. But when you realize that Dye posted career-bests in almost all those categories, and consider the fact that 2006 was just another ho-hum season for Konerko, it makes you think twice. Plus, Konerko's batting average had gone up three straight years, and he's played in 150 games 5 of the last 6 years (as compared to twice in 11 seasons for Dye). Turns out this one is a no-brainer after all. Advantage: Konerko.
Fifth Round - Brian Roberts (50) vs. Robinson Cano (55)
Roberts - .286, 85, 10, 55, 36
Cano - .342, 62, 15, 78, 5
Here's what worries me about Cano...dude doesn't walk. Maybe it's because opposing pitchers are determined to pitch to him because they have A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Abreu, and others coming up next. Or maybe it's because he hasn't developed a keen eye yet. But in 1004 career AB's, he has 34 free passes. That makes me think he's going to have a hard time hitting well over .300 again with 600 at bats. I'd also like to have more than 5 steals from my second baseman. Roberts will steal you dozens of bases, flirt with 100 runs scored, and knock a dozen or so out of Camden Yards. How about that, another O. Advantage: Roberts.
Sixth Round - Daisuke Matsuzaka (65) vs. John Lackey (71)
Matsuzaka - 17, 0, 200, 2.13, 0.92 (for Japan's Seibu Lions)
Lackey - 13, 0, 190, 3.56, 1.26
This one is almost impossible because of all the unknowns. With the exception of the World Baseball Classic, Dice-K has never faced big league hitters and he's thrown 200+ innings just twice in 8 seasons in Japan. That, to me, doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. For what it's worth, he's had one bad outing and one good outing this spring against big league competition. Overall, he's allowed 3 earned over 7 with 6 strikeouts. As for Lackey, he's a proven workhorse on a good team. He's cut down on the gopher balls, lowered his ERA, and he's striking out more hitters. If you believe the hype and can live with a potential flop (like Hideki Irabu or Kaz Matsui), go with Matsuzaka. If you want to play it safe and play it dependable, go with Lackey. Advantage: Push.
Seventh Round - Nick Swisher (77) vs. Prince Fielder (81)
Swisher - .254, 106, 35, 95, 1
Fielder - .271, 82, 28, 81, 7
Swisher's doubles turned into home runs last year as he asserted himself as a big time power threat on an Oakland team that doesn't have much power left, now that Frank Thomas is north of the border. The 152 strikeouts worry me though. He did walk 97 times, which means he either walked, struck out of homered in 44% of his plate appearances. The real question is how much the wiffs go down, and how much the average goes up. Dual eligibility at first and the outfield helps too. Fielder quietly put together a nice little season that was held somewhat under the radar because of what Hanley Ramirez did in Florida. If his doubles turn into home runs this year, we're looking at 40+, with an average that's likely to be higher than Swisher's. Advantage: Fielder.
Eighth Round - Scott Kazmir (86) vs. Felix Hernandez (89)
Kazmir - 10, 0, 163, 3.24, 1.27
Hernandez - 12, 0, 176, 4.52, 1.34
If all things were equal, I'd take Kazmir in a heartbeat. But all things are not equal. Kazmir cannot seem to keep himself healthy. His season ended early last year and now he's complaining of shoulder stiffness again this year. He is a little guy (6 foot, 170 pounds) and I wonder if he's always going to be one bad pitch away from landing on the DL. That said, his numbers last season (10.1 K/9, 3.24 ERA, age 23) are eye-popping. Then there's Felix. He doesn't have Kazmir's size problem (he's 6 foot 3, 230 pounds). And he's 3 years younger than Kazmir. While 2006 did not exactly go his way (4.52 ERA, 12-14), there are some good signs. He made 31 starts, his strikeout to walk ratio is almost 3 to 1, he pitches in a cold, friendly park, and Seattle did add some offensive firepower this off-season. Like Fielder, I think he will be under the radar on draft day, and while he will still suffer through some growing pains this year, at least they won't be arm and body pains. Advantage: Hernandez.
First Round - Ryan Howard (6) vs. David Ortiz (11)
Howard - .313, 104, 58, 149, 0
Ortiz - .287, 115, 54, 137, 1
Yes, Howard is going 5 picks sooner than Big Papi, on average. But that's only because people expect he'll duplicate or even top his 2006 season, which was only slightly better than Ortiz's to begin with. Will he do it? Who knows? He could. Is it just as likely that he'll regress a little bit? Maybe (although Howard did have a monster second half). Here's the thing with Ortiz though. You know what you're going to get. He has been a model of excellence and consistency the last three years and for the first time in his career, he had more walks than strikeouts in '06, which means he's still getting better. And in some leagues, Ortiz even qualifies at first base. You can't go wrong with either guy here. The difference is, Ortiz will still be around if you have a late first-round pick. Howard won't. Advantage: Ortiz.
Second Round - Miguel Tejada (17) vs. Derek Jeter (19)
Tejada - .330, 99, 24, 100, 6
Jeter - .343, 118, 14, 97, 34
Tejada posted a career-high batting average last year. Jeter posted the second best batting average of his career last year. Tejada's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Jeter's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Their main difference is, Tejada doesn't run nearly as much as Jeter, whereas Jeter usually doesn't drive in that many runs. I'm giving Tejada the slight edge here just because I'm bullish on the Orioles. I think their lineup is the best it's been in a while, Miggy is happy, and he's going to have guys on in front of him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he comes close to his career-high of 150 RBI, set just two years ago. Jeter can do a lot of things, but he can't do that. Advantage: Tejada.
Third Round - Roy Halladay (35) vs. Roy Oswalt (36)
Halladay - 16, 0, 132, 3.19, 1.10
Oswalt - 15, 0, 166, 2.98, 1.17
I think this is the easiest one so far. Halladay has been in the league 8 years now, and he's made 30 or more starts just 3 times. Plus his strikeout total plummeted last year. Oswalt, on the on the other hard, has had 3 straight healthy seasons, owns a much lower career ERA, and should have won a lot more than 15 games last season. Carlos Lee should help in that department this year. Advantage: Oswalt.
Fourth Round - Paul Konerko (41) vs. Jermaine Dye (44)
Konerko - .313, 97, 35, 113, 1
Dye - .315, 103, 44, 120, 7
Seems like a no-brainer if you look at last year's numbers. Dye is slightly better in every category. But when you realize that Dye posted career-bests in almost all those categories, and consider the fact that 2006 was just another ho-hum season for Konerko, it makes you think twice. Plus, Konerko's batting average had gone up three straight years, and he's played in 150 games 5 of the last 6 years (as compared to twice in 11 seasons for Dye). Turns out this one is a no-brainer after all. Advantage: Konerko.
Fifth Round - Brian Roberts (50) vs. Robinson Cano (55)
Roberts - .286, 85, 10, 55, 36
Cano - .342, 62, 15, 78, 5
Here's what worries me about Cano...dude doesn't walk. Maybe it's because opposing pitchers are determined to pitch to him because they have A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Abreu, and others coming up next. Or maybe it's because he hasn't developed a keen eye yet. But in 1004 career AB's, he has 34 free passes. That makes me think he's going to have a hard time hitting well over .300 again with 600 at bats. I'd also like to have more than 5 steals from my second baseman. Roberts will steal you dozens of bases, flirt with 100 runs scored, and knock a dozen or so out of Camden Yards. How about that, another O. Advantage: Roberts.
Sixth Round - Daisuke Matsuzaka (65) vs. John Lackey (71)
Matsuzaka - 17, 0, 200, 2.13, 0.92 (for Japan's Seibu Lions)
Lackey - 13, 0, 190, 3.56, 1.26
This one is almost impossible because of all the unknowns. With the exception of the World Baseball Classic, Dice-K has never faced big league hitters and he's thrown 200+ innings just twice in 8 seasons in Japan. That, to me, doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. For what it's worth, he's had one bad outing and one good outing this spring against big league competition. Overall, he's allowed 3 earned over 7 with 6 strikeouts. As for Lackey, he's a proven workhorse on a good team. He's cut down on the gopher balls, lowered his ERA, and he's striking out more hitters. If you believe the hype and can live with a potential flop (like Hideki Irabu or Kaz Matsui), go with Matsuzaka. If you want to play it safe and play it dependable, go with Lackey. Advantage: Push.
Seventh Round - Nick Swisher (77) vs. Prince Fielder (81)
Swisher - .254, 106, 35, 95, 1
Fielder - .271, 82, 28, 81, 7
Swisher's doubles turned into home runs last year as he asserted himself as a big time power threat on an Oakland team that doesn't have much power left, now that Frank Thomas is north of the border. The 152 strikeouts worry me though. He did walk 97 times, which means he either walked, struck out of homered in 44% of his plate appearances. The real question is how much the wiffs go down, and how much the average goes up. Dual eligibility at first and the outfield helps too. Fielder quietly put together a nice little season that was held somewhat under the radar because of what Hanley Ramirez did in Florida. If his doubles turn into home runs this year, we're looking at 40+, with an average that's likely to be higher than Swisher's. Advantage: Fielder.
Eighth Round - Scott Kazmir (86) vs. Felix Hernandez (89)
Kazmir - 10, 0, 163, 3.24, 1.27
Hernandez - 12, 0, 176, 4.52, 1.34
If all things were equal, I'd take Kazmir in a heartbeat. But all things are not equal. Kazmir cannot seem to keep himself healthy. His season ended early last year and now he's complaining of shoulder stiffness again this year. He is a little guy (6 foot, 170 pounds) and I wonder if he's always going to be one bad pitch away from landing on the DL. That said, his numbers last season (10.1 K/9, 3.24 ERA, age 23) are eye-popping. Then there's Felix. He doesn't have Kazmir's size problem (he's 6 foot 3, 230 pounds). And he's 3 years younger than Kazmir. While 2006 did not exactly go his way (4.52 ERA, 12-14), there are some good signs. He made 31 starts, his strikeout to walk ratio is almost 3 to 1, he pitches in a cold, friendly park, and Seattle did add some offensive firepower this off-season. Like Fielder, I think he will be under the radar on draft day, and while he will still suffer through some growing pains this year, at least they won't be arm and body pains. Advantage: Hernandez.
Friday, March 9, 2007
Remember The Big Three?
Most Oakland A's fans remember the days of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. But now it seems this once-dominant trio of aces has been reduced to shadows of their former, up-and-coming selves. And interestingly, all three enter this season with a lot to prove.The Rise Of The Big Three...
Back in 2000, a diminutive, relatively unknown, 24-year-old righty named Tim Hudson went 20-6 for the AL West champion Athletics in just his first full season in the big leagues.
The following season two other youngsters, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, both of whom were also in their first full seasons on the big club, emerged as top-notch starters as well and the Big Three was born. Hudson improved in nearly every category except wins (he still won 18) and the A's won the wild card. The trio combined to win 56 games, with 21 of them coming from Mulder. Each one of them posted sub-3.50 ERAs, and not one of them was over the age of 25.
In 2002, it was Zito's turn to reach the 20-win plateau. Not only did he reach it, but he exceeded it, notching 24 victories, to go along with a 2.75 ERA and a Cy Young award. For the third year in a row, Hudson improved across the board, but the bullpen had a knack for coughing up his solid performances and he finished with just 15 wins. Mulder won 19. The A's won the division again. And again, not one of them had an ERA over 3.50.In 2003, the Big Three was alive and well again, even though they didn't have a 20-game-winner. Hudson earned 16 W's, and posted a career-low 2.70 ERA. Zito finished a somewhat disappointing 14-12, but he did post a respectable 3.30 ERA. Mulder's win total dipped too (down to 15) despite a career best 3.13 ERA. He also led the league in complete games. But a hip injury limited him to 26 starts and he missed the playoffs, and the A's were sent packing in the first round for the fourth year in a row. Still, at the end of the season Hudson was 28, Mulder was 26, and Zito was 25, and optimism was high going into 2004.
...And Then The Fall
2004 was the beginning of the end. The A's missed the playoffs. Hudson missed time with an oblique injury and posted a career low win total (12) while his ERA shot up almost a whole run. Zito and Mulder's ERA's ballooned as well to 4.48 and 4.43 respectively. Zito also posted an unforgettable 11-11 record. And even though he won 17 games, Mulder was simply awful down the stretch, going 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 12 starts.
That's when Oakland GM Billy Beane decided to mix things up. He shipped Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for starter Dan Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and minor league catcher Daric Barton (a deal that looks completely lopsided today). And he sent Hudson to the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Charles Thomas, pitcher Juan Cruz, and minor league pitcher Dan Meyer. Zito was the only member of the Big Three to survive the 2004 off-season.To put it into perspective, here's the average, full season these guys posted together as the Big Three:
Tim Hudson (2000-2004) 16 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Mark Mulder (2001-2004) 18 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Barry Zito (2001-2004) 16W, 3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
And here's what they've done since:
Hudson with Atlanta (05, 06) 13.5 W, 4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Mulder with St. Louis (05, 06) 11 W, 4.74 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Zito with Oakland (05, 06) 15 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Zito has clearly been the most consistent of the bunch. He's the only one who hasn't visited the DL since their forced break-up. And he has yet to miss a start in his 7-year-career. But it still looks like his "breakout" 2002 performance was a career best, not a preview of things to come. Hudson's return to his home state of Georgia simply hasn't been the feel-good story lots of people expected. He's been hurt, he's been wild, and he just hasn't been that number one starter he was in Oakland. As for Mulder, he had a solid 2005, and started off okay in 2006, but then suffered a horrid May and June. The Cards shut him down for a month, he made two more bad starts, then they shut him down for good in September. He had rotator cuff surgery later that month.
Looking AheadDespite reports that the Braves tried to trade him this off-season, Hudson says he's ready to prove his doubters wrong. And he has plenty of them. He turns 32 this season, he had an injury-free season last year, and his strikeout total went up. But his WHIP has increased each of the last four years and it's hard to ignore his career worst 4.86 ERA. He also gave up 25 gopher balls, perhaps a sign his two-seamer isn't sinking as much as it once did.
Mulder has to prove that he can be a productive big league pitcher again, after major arm surgery. He's not expected to return to the mound until July and we probably won't get a true sense for how good he will, or won't be, until 2008. He's never been a big strikeout guy, and a stitched-up shoulder probably won't help that improve.
Then there's Zito. Entering 2007, he's slated to start Opening Day again, just for a different Bay Area team. And after signing a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal a few months ago, it's up to him to show he's at least moderately close to worth it. I'd imagine another 15-win season with a near 4.00 ERA might not be enough. And of course if he does get hurt, the critics who said his deal was outrageous, will only give themselves a collective pat on the back.There's no denying that so far, these guys pitched much better when they were all on the same team. But there's also no denying that their past success as the Big Three will always leave people wondering if this is the year when they revert back to their old form and flirt with 20 wins again.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Maybe I Was Wrong
Despite my earlier prediction, Sammy Sosa is apparently swinging it so far this spring. For the record, while he still may break camp with the Texas Rangers, best case scenario, I still think he'll be less productive than an average big league DH. He might go somewhere in the neighborhood of .245, 20, 65. These are numbers which, quite frankly, just about any triple-A power hitter could out up.p.s. I like how the MLB.com story mentions he detonated a Livan Hernandez fastball. So what, it was 85 miles an hour? If it was Billy Wagner or Daniel Cabrera on the hill, that's one thing, but c'mon!
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Who The Hell Did That Guy Just Pick?
If you've ever found yourself asking that on draft day, it might be a good time for you to review this. It's Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects for the upcoming season. I know I always wonder (a) when these guys will get taken in standard snake drafts and (b) how much they will go for in auction drafts.I'm in one keeper league where the salary cap is $285 for 25 players. I'm setting the over/under on Matsuzaka at $36.
p.s. how about Brady Quinn's former go-to-guy cracking the top 80?
Monday, March 5, 2007
Hmmmmm...
Apparently, I'm not the only person who thinks Alex Rodriguez might leave New York for the Friendly Confines once this season is over, if for no other reason than to re-join Lou Piniella.
And while it's tough to empathize with a guy who makes at least $1 more than everybody else in the big leagues, I couldn't agree with Jemele Hill more about this:
"If the Yankees win it all this season, Jeter gets the credit. If the Yankees lose early in the playoffs again, A-Rod shoulders the blame (again)."
Fair or not, that sums up his situation in the Bronx perfectly.
And while it's tough to empathize with a guy who makes at least $1 more than everybody else in the big leagues, I couldn't agree with Jemele Hill more about this:
"If the Yankees win it all this season, Jeter gets the credit. If the Yankees lose early in the playoffs again, A-Rod shoulders the blame (again)."
Fair or not, that sums up his situation in the Bronx perfectly.
Sunday, March 4, 2007
This Again
So Gary Matthews Jr. "wishes to cooperate," is "eager to tell his side of the story," and "looks forward to providing a statement" as to why his name allegedly appeared on a client list at a Mobile, Alabama pharmacy. Investigators say that pharmacy mailed the human growth hormone, Genotropin to him in August 2004. The co-owners of that pharmacy are under indictment.Investigators also link the Alabama pharmacy with a pair of health facilities in the Orlando, Florida area. That's where a handful of people were just arrested as part of the same on-line, steroid distribution network investigation.
Oh, by the way, investigators say "Juiced" author, Jose Canseco's name was also on the Alabama list, and that former D-Backs pitcher Jason Grimsley is associated with the Florida pharmacy.
I don't know about you, but I sure wouldn't want my name mentioned along with the self-proclaimed "Godfather of Steroids In Baseball," and an admitted HGH-user at a time like this.It's no secret Matthews is fresh off a stellar 2006 where he set career highs in games, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. It's also no secret he parlayed his career year into a 5-year, $50 million dollar deal this off-season.
At least Matthews says he wants to cooperate. That may be more than you can say for Barry Bonds.
But here's my question, Gary. Let's say your 2006 was about hard work. Let's say it was about a skilled athlete in his early 30's finally getting the opportunity to prove what he can do as a full-time starter. Let's assume it wasn't about cheating, just to cash in. If that's truly the case, why not hold a press conference tomorrow and tell the world that you've never, ever, knowingly or unknowingly, taken any illegal performance-enhancing drugs? Why do you need to wait until the end of the investigation to comment if you didn't do anything wrong?
I just don't get it.
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