Shea What?!

Provided he reaches a long-term deal and passes a physical, it looks like baseball's best pitcher is going to the other New York team in exchange for four prospects. Everyone knows how good Santana is. His average season over the last 4 years looks like this...17.5 wins, 246 K's, 2.89 ERA, and 1/2 of a Cy Young Award (he's won 2 since 2004).

As for the prospects, outfielder Carlos Gomez just turned 22 and had 12 steals in only 125 AB's last year for New York. He also amassed 157 in 1500 minor league AB's, so he has big-time speed. Here are his red flags, though. He's not a particularly high-average guy, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3:1, and he doesn't hit for much power. One scouting report I read on him said "Coco Crisp with a much, much better arm." Still, he is rated as New York's number 3 prospect overall by Baseball America.

Deolis Guerra turns 19 in a couple of months and spent 2007 in high-A ball where the righty went 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA along with 66 K's and 25 BB's in just under 90 innings. He's 6'5'', 200 pounds (a good pitcher's body) and while scouts believe he's inconsistent at this point, he was also rated as New York's number 2 prospect overall and is said to have the best change-up in the organization. He also played in the Futures Game last summer.

Philip Humber is New York's number 7 prospect overall and scouts seem to think he's just about ready for the big leagues. He just turned 25 and went 11-9 last year in Triple-A, striking out nearly one batter per inning. He's also about two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery. Scouts think the surgery has lowered his ceiling from that of a number 2 starter down to a 4 or 5, but he also has the best curveball in the organization.

Finally, Kevin Mulvey (whose name makes me think of "Mulva" from the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend's name rhymes with a female body part, but he doesn't know which one) is another right handed starter who spent most of 2007 in Double-A, going 11-10 with a 3.26 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy, doesn't have a dominant pitch, but mixes his stuff well and projects to be another 4th or 5th starter. He ranks as New York's 4th best prospect overall and is 22 years old. He also has the best slider of any Mets pitcher.

So essentially, Minnesota gave up the best pitcher of the 21st century for a speedy, defensive-stud outfielder and 3 young right-handers, none of whom project to be a number 2 starter in the majors. All told, they got New York's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th top prospects, but did not get their best position player (another outfielder, 19-year-old Fernando Martinez who bats left, throws right, played in the '07 Futures Game and is the Mets' best power and contact hitter), or their best young arm- 24-year-old Mike Pelfrey, who got hit around in '07 but still made 13 starts with the big club.

Let's not forget the Mets also have to pay Santana, likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million. Still, the consensus seems to be Minnesota walked away from this deal without getting a really exciting prospect in return.

As for the Mets, here's what they'll look like on opening day...

SS Jose Reyes
2b Luis Castillo
CF Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1b Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez/LHP Mike Pelfrey
CP Billy Wagner

In the weak NL East which features the depleted Braves, Marlins and Nationals, New York's only real competition will be Philadelphia, which may have taken a step backwards since 2007 ended. In the outfield, they lost Aaron Rowand to free agency and traded Michael Bourne, only to sign the oft-injured Geoff Jenkins. That's a big downgrade. They got Brad Lidge in the Bourne deal, who will replace another questionable closer, Tom Gordon. That could be an upgrade, or it could be a push. They also lost Tad Iguchi and Jon Lieber to free agency, while Freddy Garcia, Antonio Alfonseco, and Jose Mesa remain unsigned. They did ink Pedro Feliz to play third base, but I'm inclined to think this team is, at best, as good as it was last year, while the Mets are significantly better with Santana.

One more thing that's worth noting is that when/if the Santana deal gets done and if Erik Bedard goes to Seattle, 3 of baseball's best, young pitchers will have been traded this offseson when you add Dan Haren to the list. I'm inclined to think that doesn't happen all that often.

Wow, an entire post without mentioning steroids once! See, it is possible.

I'm Back, And Baseball Needs To Be Soon

Sorry I haven't posted in a while. No good excuse other than the holidays and a busy work schedule.

Anyhoo...I must say, after the Steroid Report To End All Steroid Reports came out, I felt like I didn't really know what my opinion was, so I didn't want to write anything about it until the dust had settled somewhat and until I had some time to reflect. So now that a month has passed, here's my assessment, for what it's worth.

First, I guess my main problem with the SRTEASR is that it is merely a snapshot of the problem. George Mitchell openly admits that players weren't at all helpful during this and that the players mentioned were the only ones he felt confident "outing." Plus, as several ESPN Radio talk show hosts pointed out, if Kirk Radomski hadn't landed squarely in Mitchel's lap, the SRTEASR would have been a leaflet rather than a 400-page novel. So my question is, how is it fair to guys like Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts that there are likely hundreds of other players out there who are just as guilty, or perhaps even more guilty (i.e. juiced for longer stretches of time), but somehow get a pass because they weren't associated with Radomski or Brian McNamee?

Second, I still find myself dealing with somewhat of a moral dilemma when it comes to the similarities (and differences) between Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Allegations aside, they are hands-down the two best players in the last 20 years, having padded already remarkable stats significantly in their late 30s and early 40s. Allegations aside, these are also two of the greatest players ever. Allegations aside, if you were to make a team of the best statistical performers of all time, you'd better believe these two are on the roster. But now, there are allegations and the slam-dunk-first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame-credentials of these two men are being scrutinized. I wondered why I wasn't instantly feeling the same animosity towards Clemens that I often do with Bonds. I thought Jayson Stark's article about these two was a total bull's eye, but after seeing Clemens on 60 Minutes, and seeing his press conference with the taped phone call with McNamee, I still wasn't as convinced of his innocence as I would have liked, and I hate that. Clearly there is much more evidence linking Bonds to PEDs as compared to Clemens, but I think Mike Wallace's question hits home- "what did McNamee gain by lying?" I know this much. You can't lie to the federal government. You can lie to yourself, to fans, to the media, and to George Mitchell. But you can't lie to the federal government. If you do, they're going to get you. I think it will be very interesting to see what Clemens says when he meets with lawmakers next month and if he adamantly maintains his innocence then, it could help his case significantly. But if he goes all "Mark McGwire" on them, it will do the exact opposite.

And third, I wonder if the general frustration I feel towards the whole steroids scandal is something a lot of baseball fans feel. I kind of miss the days when I'd click on ESPN.com's MLB link and the top stories were about offseason moves, not about who's saying what about which former or current player and whether that former or current player is admitting or denying it. I'm sick of it. And it's not going to go away any time soon, until all the players implicated in this thing are done playing.

But now that Erik Bedard may be headed to Seattle, and now that the Twins may still deal Johan Santana, perhaps we can get back to what's good about baseball, and away from what's so wrong with it.

The Mitchell Report...So What?

His year-and-a-half investigation is over and according to some, he's going to call out 60-80 former and current players for using steroids. But what I want to know about former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell's report is this: what happens next?

What if one or more of those 60-80 broke a single season record? An all-time record? Won an end of season award? Have since been voted into the Hall of Fame? Are still playing today? Are now managing a team? Are now working in a front office? Are now working as an analyst somewhere? What, if anything, happens to these people? Is the fact that they've been named as part of this probe punishment enough? And perhaps most importantly, is being named in this report sufficient proof that said player did, in fact, use steroids?

Commissioner Bud Selig never addressed these issues during his press conference on March 30, 2006, when he first announced what Mitchell would be doing. I would imagine he can't hide from these queries after today, though. Mitchell will announce his findings at 2 this afternoon, and Selig will follow up with his own newser at 4:30.

Let's just say it should be an interesting day for the game of baseball.

Rowand On The River (Or Bay)

Aaron Rowand is headed west. The All-Star centerfielder signed a 5-year, $60 million dollar deal with the Giants today, saying he wanted to be in one place for a long time. That's fine. But it does not appear the team in that one place is going to be particularly competitive any time soon.

Yes, the Giants have a decent rotation with Cain, Lincecum, and Zito. But their offense, even with Rowand, remains thin at best. Bonds is gone, Pedro Feliz is a free agent and the players that remain (Vizquel, Aurilia, Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina) are all at least in their mid-to-late 30s. And let's not forget they play in the same division as the NL champion Rockies, the NL's best regular-season team (Arizona), and an LA club that's added Andruw Jones and might not be done wheeling and dealing.

That's not to say Rowand won't win at all in San Fran. If they add a few bats in a few places, they have the staff to be dangerous. But don't expect that to happen in 2008.

Welcome To The Orioles, Troy Patton!

Upon learning he'd been traded from Houston, along with four other members of the Astros' organization for Miguel Tejada, the 22-year-old lefty pitching prospect and top prize of the deal for Baltimore told the Houston Chronicle...

Wait for it...

Wait for it...

Keep waiting...

Okay, now!

"It's true. It's kind of sad really."

I don't know about you, but I think the O's have found a guy they can put on the front of their 2008 media guide. This kind of enthusiasm just screams 20-game winner, doesn't it?

In addition to Patton, a fireballer who had a solid cup of coffee with the big club in '07, the O's got outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate, and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo (I can hear the "can't stand ya!" chants already).

The addition of Scott in this deal is kind of puzzling. He'll turn 30 during the middle of next season and has seen time with Houston for each of the last 3 years. The lefty outfielder put up a really promising '06 with a .336 average, and 10 homeruns in 214 at-bats. But last year he hit just .255 and struck out 95 times in 369 at-bats. How he helps the Orioles now, or ever, I don't know.

Matt Albers will turn 25 in a month. Last year was one to forget for the righty who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen. He posted a 4-11 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.42 K:BB ratio. He supposedly has a great arm and closer stuff, but needs to learn how to harness it. Sound (Daniel Cabrera) familiar?

Dennis Sarfate is another reliever, turns 27 in early April, and appears to be a big strikeout guy. He had 14 of them (and just one walk) in 8 1/3 last year for Houston. The Orioles will also be his third team in as many years, though. In 2006, he struck out 11 in 8 1/3 for Milwaukee. A 9th round pick in 2000, he's averaged just about a strikeout an inning for his entire pro career.

And finally, Michael Costanzo is a 24-year-old slugging third baseman from Coastal Carolina. He was the 65th player taken in the 2005 draft and hit 27 homeruns last year at double-A Reading. He bats left, throws right and was Carolina's closer in 2005.

So all told, the Orioles got two pretty solid prospects (Patton and Costanzo), two more "maybe" pitchers (Albers and Sarfate) and a "help-you-now" throw-in (Scott). O's fans should be glad they finally traded Miggy, but they would have been able to get a whole lot more for him an offseason ago. They can only hope Bedard and Roberts go next, and that the team gets more in return for them.

As for Houston, it would appear exciting times are ahead for this bunch, as they are now the team with the best chance of supplanting the Cubs atop the NL Central. Their opening day lineup might look something like this...

CF Michael Bourne
2b Kaz Matsui
LF Carlos Lee
1b Lance Berkman
RF Hunter Pence
SS Miguel Tejada
3b Ty Wigginton
C Brad Ausmus

That's a lot of speed at the top, and a lot of pop in the middle. We'll see if they have enough pitching to be competitive.

Lost In Translation?

Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.

His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.

I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.

Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.

Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.

Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.

My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.

A Hypothetical Question

If an aging catcher, past his prime, goes to one of the worst teams in baseball, does anybody care?

Paul LoDuca signs a 1-year-deal with the Washington Nationals, terms undisclosed, but likely in the neighborhood of $5 million.

Would they please hurry up and get the Santana deal done?

This Time, He Deserves It

MLB.com is giving out its annual awards right now, as voted upon by nearly 10 million baseball fans worldwide. Today, it was Josh Beckett winning a "This Year In Baseball" award for being the Top Starting Pitcher.

I know it's not nearly as prestigious as the Cy Young, but I also think that because this award encompasses the entire season rather than just the regular season, Beckett was the right choice. In my opinion, the difference between Beckett and C.C. Sabathia during the regular season was so small that Beckett's dominance in the postseason (including two wins against Sabathia, specifically) was more than enough to make him the best starting pitcher in the bigs this past season.

Tomorrow, MLB.com announces the award for closer, an honor which should go to J.J. Putz (1.38, 40 saves, 82K, 49 baserunners in 71 2/3 IP). The day after that, it's best manager (has to be Clint Hurdle, right?), then performance of the year (another one for Beckett?), rookie (let the Braun/Tulowitzki debate begin again), hitter (A-Rod), setup man (Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt), defensive player (Tulowitzki), blooper/play (no idea, maybe the ALDS bug attack in Cleveland or the entire 30-3 game at Camden Yards?) and finally moment/postseason moment (the Rockies beating Trevor Hoffman in extra innings of an extra game to go to the playoffs).

Can Somebody Please Explain This To Me?

The Milwaukee Brewers and reliever Eric Gagne have agreed to a 1-year, $10 million dollar deal. The team says it needed help in the bullpen after losing Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds earlier this offseason for $46 million over 4. Let's not forget Gagne will compete with Derrick Turnbow to be Milwaukee's closer. He's not been handed the job yet. And let's also not forget this happened just hours before the New York Yankees signed reliever LaTroy Hawkins to a 1-year, $3.75 million dollar contract.

Here's why I'm so perplexed. First, how on Earth is Eric Gagne worth $10 million dollars right now? Yes, he turns just 32 next month. And yes, at one time he was arguably the most dominant closer in the history of baseball. But this is also a guy who's been with 3 teams and recorded 17 saves since June of 2005. This is a guy whose right arm looks like it's been stolen from the Frankenstein monster and then attached to his body. This is a guy who was so bad for Boston down the stretch that he was relegated to mop-up duty late in the season and in the playoffs. This is a guy who had only 5 appearances out of 25 with the Sox where he didn't allow a baserunner and not once did he retire more than 3 batters. How does that make him worth an 8-figure salary, especially considering he could end up being Derrick Turnbow's set-up man?

Second, supposing Gagne is worth $10 million, how is LaTroy Hawkins worth only $3.75? Hawkins has appeared in at least 60 games for each of the last 8 seasons. During that stretch he has had at least double digits in holds, or double digits in saves every year. He posted a 2.90 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .228 average after the All-Star break and allowed just 3 baserunners over 5 innings in the 2007 playoffs for Colorado. The only way Hawkins will close for the Yanks this season is if Mariano Rivera misses the team bus or takes a liner off the noggin, but still, New York's backup plan could be much worse.

Perhaps Gagne regains his previous form from earlier this decade. After all, I'm sure the Brewers would take even 75% of his '03 season (55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 K's, 57 baserunners in 82 1/3 IP, plus a Cy Young Award). But in my opinion, the odds of Gagne being worth more than 2.5 times what LaTroy Hawkins is when '08 is in the books, are not good.

The Bonds Market

His arraignment on perjury and obstruction of justice charges stemming from the BALCO investigation is tomorrow, but Barry Bonds says he wants to play baseball next season. For argument's sake, let's assume he avoids jail either via an acquittal or thanks to an exceptionally light sentence. Which teams, if any, would be a good fit?

Well, I think you can all-but-eliminate every single National League team because he just can't play the field any more at an acceptable level. Plus, at this point in his career, he is so much more valuable as a power hitter that it's not worth having to give him a day off so often because of his having played the field the night before. That leaves 14 teams (by the way, why does the NL have two more teams than the AL? Why not move Houston from the NL Central to the AL West? That way, every division in baseball would have 5 teams). Anyway, of those 14 teams, Boston (Ortiz), New York (Giambi), Toronto (Thomas), Chicago (Thome), Cleveland (Hafner), Detroit (Sheffield), Seattle (Vidro), and Oakland (Cust) already have designated hitters who are serviceable or better. That leaves as few as 6 or as many as 8 if you include Seattle and Oakland that would potentially have room for Bonds- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, LA, and Texas.

With the Orioles seemingly trying to get younger rather than older, I just don't see Baltimore being the least bit interested. After all, they already went through Palmeiro-gate once before.

It's probably the same story with Tampa Bay. They have a bunch of young and (in theory) up-and-coming players so I don't see how Bonds would mesh with guys like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, Garza, etc. Let's not forget, the Rays just got rid of Delmon Young who was seen by some as a guy with attitude issues. He's Mr. Congeniality compared to BB.

Kansas City, like Tampa Bay and Baltimore, is a long way from winning or even being competitive in their own division so I don't see Bonds wanting to go there, notwithstanding the fact that the Royals probably wouldn't want him or be able to pay him what he would want, especially considering they just signed Jose Guillen to such an absurd deal.

The Twins are interesting. The odds of Bonds winning a ring there aren't great now that Detroit is so stacked, but he would give them a nice boost in the middle of their order with Morneau, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer and whoever else they get for Santana (I'm still convinced this deal will get done).

LA is also interesting. He could stay out west, give Vlad and Hunter some nice protection and would have the best chance of winning a World Series there than with any other potential suitor.

Texas might be able to pay him and might be willing to take a chance on him (they did the whole Sammy Sosa thing and that actually worked out okay for both sides) but they are not going to finish above Seattle, let alone LA next season, so I doubt Bonds would be too enamored with this team, although given his "situation" (said in a Dane Cook voice), he probably can't be too picky.

Seattle might not be a bad option, although Jose Vidro did have a pretty nice season for the M's last year (.381 OBP, more walks than K's, 600+ plate appearances) and he definitely can't play the field any more so Bonds might not be worth the hit you'd take by losing Vidro in the process.

And in Oakland, Bonds would definitely be a Billy Beane guy...aka a member of the Island of Misfit Toys. But with Dan Haren and Joe Blanton rumored to be on the block and the A's looking to get young again and wait for LA to get old, Bonds just doesn't seem to make as much sense as he did a few months ago.

All that said, I don't think Bonds ever will play again. I have no idea how his trial will play out but will a majority of baseball fans ever actually accept it if he is acquitted? I doubt it. And for that reason, I don't see a big league GM being brave enough to offer him a contract.