Shea What?!

Provided he reaches a long-term deal and passes a physical, it looks like baseball's best pitcher is going to the other New York team in exchange for four prospects. Everyone knows how good Santana is. His average season over the last 4 years looks like this...17.5 wins, 246 K's, 2.89 ERA, and 1/2 of a Cy Young Award (he's won 2 since 2004).

As for the prospects, outfielder Carlos Gomez just turned 22 and had 12 steals in only 125 AB's last year for New York. He also amassed 157 in 1500 minor league AB's, so he has big-time speed. Here are his red flags, though. He's not a particularly high-average guy, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3:1, and he doesn't hit for much power. One scouting report I read on him said "Coco Crisp with a much, much better arm." Still, he is rated as New York's number 3 prospect overall by Baseball America.

Deolis Guerra turns 19 in a couple of months and spent 2007 in high-A ball where the righty went 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA along with 66 K's and 25 BB's in just under 90 innings. He's 6'5'', 200 pounds (a good pitcher's body) and while scouts believe he's inconsistent at this point, he was also rated as New York's number 2 prospect overall and is said to have the best change-up in the organization. He also played in the Futures Game last summer.

Philip Humber is New York's number 7 prospect overall and scouts seem to think he's just about ready for the big leagues. He just turned 25 and went 11-9 last year in Triple-A, striking out nearly one batter per inning. He's also about two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery. Scouts think the surgery has lowered his ceiling from that of a number 2 starter down to a 4 or 5, but he also has the best curveball in the organization.

Finally, Kevin Mulvey (whose name makes me think of "Mulva" from the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend's name rhymes with a female body part, but he doesn't know which one) is another right handed starter who spent most of 2007 in Double-A, going 11-10 with a 3.26 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy, doesn't have a dominant pitch, but mixes his stuff well and projects to be another 4th or 5th starter. He ranks as New York's 4th best prospect overall and is 22 years old. He also has the best slider of any Mets pitcher.

So essentially, Minnesota gave up the best pitcher of the 21st century for a speedy, defensive-stud outfielder and 3 young right-handers, none of whom project to be a number 2 starter in the majors. All told, they got New York's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th top prospects, but did not get their best position player (another outfielder, 19-year-old Fernando Martinez who bats left, throws right, played in the '07 Futures Game and is the Mets' best power and contact hitter), or their best young arm- 24-year-old Mike Pelfrey, who got hit around in '07 but still made 13 starts with the big club.

Let's not forget the Mets also have to pay Santana, likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million. Still, the consensus seems to be Minnesota walked away from this deal without getting a really exciting prospect in return.

As for the Mets, here's what they'll look like on opening day...

SS Jose Reyes
2b Luis Castillo
CF Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1b Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez/LHP Mike Pelfrey
CP Billy Wagner

In the weak NL East which features the depleted Braves, Marlins and Nationals, New York's only real competition will be Philadelphia, which may have taken a step backwards since 2007 ended. In the outfield, they lost Aaron Rowand to free agency and traded Michael Bourne, only to sign the oft-injured Geoff Jenkins. That's a big downgrade. They got Brad Lidge in the Bourne deal, who will replace another questionable closer, Tom Gordon. That could be an upgrade, or it could be a push. They also lost Tad Iguchi and Jon Lieber to free agency, while Freddy Garcia, Antonio Alfonseco, and Jose Mesa remain unsigned. They did ink Pedro Feliz to play third base, but I'm inclined to think this team is, at best, as good as it was last year, while the Mets are significantly better with Santana.

One more thing that's worth noting is that when/if the Santana deal gets done and if Erik Bedard goes to Seattle, 3 of baseball's best, young pitchers will have been traded this offseson when you add Dan Haren to the list. I'm inclined to think that doesn't happen all that often.

Wow, an entire post without mentioning steroids once! See, it is possible.